Just a Prediction ….

[TeamGarcia]

 
 

Shook & looked into my 8 Ball prediction and said… (drum roll here)

 

Will the ISHAA Team State Championship record be crushed this year overall Team Points ? 
 

8 Ball response…. Yes it will ! 
 

I was like DANG ! 
 

Thoughts anyone ? 

[Cricket21]

Very well could be with CP and BB having such strong lineups, along with both teams being in different semi states. Could be up for grabs!

[Worden]

 CP and BB both have a good shot. Evansville semi state is brutal and always brings surprises. Hopefully all the boys stay healthy. 

[Joe Exotics Wildcats]

Mater Dei will have about 50 points between just Sollars and Brody. Add in Schaeffer, Critchfield, May, Ralph, Seng, and Egli. The boys will be ready to roll and should not be counted out.

[ReformedPoster]

9 minutes ago, Joe Exotics Wildcats said:

Mater Dei will have about 50 points between just Sollars and Brody. Add in Schaeffer, Critchfield, May, Ralph, Seng, and Egli. The boys will be ready to roll and should not be counted out.

If both Baumann and Sollars repeat, then yes, they should have around 50 points depending on bonus.  I think Critchfield can reach the finals if he's in the opposite bracket from Christian Carroll.  That should be another 20 or so depending on bonus.  Seng is the only other potential finalist, but the draw for him will be key.  If he can win semi state over haines, that will be huge.  The loser of that match wants to avoid a potential saturday morning match with Jackson or dickey.

 

The rest have their work cut out for them.  they all have land mines at semi state, which could lead to some rough draws at state.  106 is no cake walk  at Evansville with Hockaday, Rioux, Schaefer, LaRocca and Feeler all in the mix.

 

Same for 120.  the Zirkelback/Egli loser at regional is a long shot to make it to state.  Even the winner will have a tough go to qualify.  Logan Miller, Lane Gilbert, Reese Courtney, Kessinger and Lykins make it a seriously deep weight.

 

152 - May should qualify and make a good run, but again, draw and his health will play a part in how far he goes.

 

Ralph - He's wrestled well, but 285 is always a crap shoot.  Jones is the clear favorite out of Evansville, but Ralph can certainly qualify for state.  

 

I just don't think MD has the horses to win this year.  I think they can finish 3rd, but Brownsburg and CP will too strong.

[WrestleMan]

8 minutes ago, ReformedPoster said:

If both Baumann and Sollars repeat, then yes, they should have around 50 points depending on bonus.  I think Critchfield can reach the finals if he's in the opposite bracket from Christian Carroll.  That should be another 20 or so depending on bonus.  Seng is the only other potential finalist, but the draw for him will be key.  If he can win semi state over haines, that will be huge.  The loser of that match wants to avoid a potential saturday morning match with Jackson or dickey.

 

The rest have their work cut out for them.  they all have land mines at semi state, which could lead to some rough draws at state.  106 is no cake walk  at Evansville with Hockaday, Rioux, Schaefer, LaRocca and Feeler all in the mix.

 

Same for 120.  the Zirkelback/Egli loser at regional is a long shot to make it to state.  Even the winner will have a tough go to qualify.  Logan Miller, Lane Gilbert, Reese Courtney, Kessinger and Lykins make it a seriously deep weight.

 

152 - May should qualify and make a good run, but again, draw and his health will play a part in how far he goes.

 

Ralph - He's wrestled well, but 285 is always a crap shoot.  Jones is the clear favorite out of Evansville, but Ralph can certainly qualify for state.  

 

I just don't think MD has the horses to win this year.  I think they can finish 3rd, but Brownsburg and CP will too strong.

You are correct on all of the above. The Evansville Semi State will create some horrible draws for people at state, both from Evansville and people drawing into Evansville. Does a semi state champ want to draw into Rioux, Schaeffer, LaRocca or Feeler? Any of these guys could place 4th in Evansville.  Even Saturday morning looking at one of these four can't make you feel good. 

The draw is always a huge determining factor for teams. Winning on Saturday morning for MD is a must for them to have a legitimate shot at BB or CP, but I think Schaeffer, Seng, May, and Ralph all have the ability to do so. I also think if Egli gets hot he has the ability to make it much further than most people think. Remember, he's a semi state champ from a year ago and would have likely placed pretty well had he not drawn into Cottey. 

I can't wait to see how it plays out, but I agree we could see a record broken this year and I think the state finals are going to be very exciting. 

[mdspiderman81]

Disagree with a record being broken.  The top five at team state will pick each other apart.

[MattM]

2 hours ago, mdspiderman81 said:

Disagree with a record being broken.  The top five at team state will pick each other apart.

I had a similar thought about this.  To reach a record level I think a team has to stand out as a clear front runner.  But this year we have several very good teams all pushing for the title with several ending up running into each other prior to the weight class finals.  While I think we may end up with a few high scoring teams this year, I'm not sure one will end up rising high enough to top the record.  Not to mention some of the other stud wrestlers we have will end up picking off a few of these teams guys along the way.  

[WrestleMan]

2 hours ago, mdspiderman81 said:

Disagree with a record being broken.  The top five at team state will pick each other apart.

I guess the first thing to discern is what number we are talking about. Are we talking 2003 Mater Dei and what their score would have been or are we talking 2021 Mater Dei and 112 points? No way anybody reaches the 2003 team. I'm not sure what that number would have been, but it's out of reach. The 112, while unlikely, is possible. I think CP has the best shot at reaching it. If they have champs at 126, 138 and 152 (all weight classes where they are ranked #1) and they can come up with top 3 or top 4 finishes at 106, 132, 160 and 182 they would have to be close if not over that number. BB and MD have it a little tougher. While both have 2 wrestlers ranked first, they will need some very strong performances by other guys to reach that level. Time will tell. 

[MattM]

6 minutes ago, WrestleMan said:

No way anybody reaches the 2003 team. I'm not sure what that number would have been, but it's out of reach. 

There maybe a few old school teams who could also make a claim to a very high tournament score, but the tournament was scores differently in their time.   I’m sure if someone would retroactively applied the current tournament scoring format to their prior years tournament, we would could see how a few of those teams stacked up.  

 

I’m in agreement that the 2003 MD team would have put up a ridiculous number.  I’m actually surprised that no one has went back and done the math for that years state tournament based on either that years scoring format and/or even the current scoring format to see wait the points would be.  

 

I do recall the IHSWCA having an unofficially “team score” during some of the IHSAA Team  State years (no clue on 03) until the IHSAA told them to cease and desist.   But not sure if anyone ever saved a copy of those unofficial team scores.   

[ReformedPoster]

1 minute ago, MattM said:

There maybe a few old school teams who could also make a claim to a very high tournament score, but the tournament was scores differently in their time.   I’m sure if someone would retroactively applied the current tournament scoring format to their prior years tournament, we would could see how a few of those teams stacked up.  

 

I’m in agreement that the 2003 MD team would have put up a ridiculous number.  I’m actually surprised that no one has went back and done the math for that years state tournament based on either that years scoring format and/or even the current scoring format to see wait the points would be.  

 

I do recall the IHSWCA having an unofficially “team score” during some of the IHSAA Team  State years (no clue on 03) until the IHSAA told them to cease and desist.   But not sure if anyone ever saved a copy of those unofficial team scores.   

What changed in the scoring format from 03 until now?  Advancement, bonus and placement points are all the same, right?

[MattM]

36 minutes ago, ReformedPoster said:

What changed in the scoring format from 03 until now?  Advancement, bonus and placement points are all the same, right?

I’m not sure what all changed in what years, but if I recall correctly there has been some difference in how they scored the first round advancement and first round bonus points for some years.  I feel like this was maybe sometimes right after they started scoring individual state again. But either way since no actual score was keep during the IHSAA Team State years, we would have to look at how the point structure was right before or after for an accurate time period view. Then still add up their unofficial points for any comparison.  

 

I seem to also recall several years back around the 90s they didn’t have as much of a wrestleback for placement as they do now.  I’d have to look up some details but you basically wrestled a placement match based how far your opponent advanced rather than a more extensive wrestleback for 5th if you made it to Saturday.   

 

Then obviously some things change when you consider that further back in the day 80s and so on it was just a 8 man tournament with no 8th-5th wrestleback if you lost the opening round.  So some stud teams from back then with much of their lineup at state don’t get a chance to total up as much of a score as these current teams are getting.  

Edited January 25, 2022 by MattM

[ReformedPoster]

I know there was a year or two when Friday night was not counted, but that was pretty recent.  I believe it was standard scoring back in 2003.  Based on my math, here is MD's score that year.  Mistakes may have been made when scoring this, so somebody can feel free to correct me.

 

112 Williams 6 points (2 advancement on friday night, 1 for advancing in the consolations, 3 for 6th place)

125 Macke 16.5 points (4 for advancing to the semis.  1.5 for a tech fall and 2 for a pin, 9 for 3rd place)

130 Coughlin 20 points (6 for advancing to the finals, 2 for a pin and 12 for 2nd place)

135 Scott 15 points (4 for advancing to the semis, 2 majors for 2 points, 9 for 3rd place)

145 Weinzapfel 27.5 points (6 for advancing to the finals, 1.5 for a tech, 4 for two pins and 16 for 1st place)

152 Nosko 26 points (6 for advancing to the finals, 4 for two pins, 16 for 1st place)

160 Wildeman 26 points (6 for advancing to the finals, 4 for two pins, 16 for 1st place)

171 Maurer 24 points (6 for advancing to the finals, 2 for two majors, 16 for 1st place)

 

Total - 161 points

 

I threw this together pretty quickly, so again if there are mistakes please correct me.

 

Nobody is coming close to this score this year.

Edited January 25, 2022 by ReformedPoster

[TeamGarcia]

 
 

This crap looks to complicated for me, changing of the rules is Capital D.U.M.B also. 
 

Just give me on my Black 8 Ball Prediction 

-11 Placers, 4 Champs for Brownsburg  

-10 Placers, 3 Champ for Crown Point 

 

We can figure out the math at the end . 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[hook and half]

2 hours ago, MattM said:

There maybe a few old school teams who could also make a claim to a very high tournament score, but the tournament was scores differently in their time.   I’m sure if someone would retroactively applied the current tournament scoring format to their prior years tournament, we would could see how a few of those teams stacked up.  

 

I’m in agreement that the 2003 MD team would have put up a ridiculous number.  I’m actually surprised that no one has went back and done the math for that years state tournament based on either that years scoring format and/or even the current scoring format to see wait the points would be.  

 

I do recall the IHSWCA having an unofficially “team score” during some of the IHSAA Team  State years (no clue on 03) until the IHSAA told them to cease and desist.   But not sure if anyone ever saved a copy of those unofficial team scores.   

When discontinuing Team State, Bobby Cox pointed to the fact that the IHSWCA kept score at individual state minimized Team State.  Not sure about that one, Bobby.

 

He also pointed to the lack of competition, as many teams would put out JV guys at team sectional, in order to save them for individual regional. Very accurate, Bobby.  It is also a head-scratching coach's move.

 

The death of team state was the two years mater dei was out of the tournament.  as many that came to support mater dei were there to watch the 'cats get (hopefully) beat.  The replacement team did not have the same emotional draw.

 

i heard the last couple of years, team state did not make money.  at the end of the day, no way/no how will the ihsaa tolerate that!

[formercollegekid]

1. Cathedral is gonna make a push this year.

 

2. Crown Point will win.

 

3. Penn will bring like 10 guys to state.

 

4. Belmont will be the FWss champion.

 

5. E'vil strikes again as 

Center Grove vs EMD vs Brownsburg.... all have to battle to get guys out

 

6. The Mooresville regional is gonna be nasty. Really should be broken up by the ihsaa.

 

7. The Crown Point regional will tough. But not as deep as Mooresville. Likely produces 5 state champs. Testimony to how good cp is. 

 

8. Cp will have 4 champs 

 

9. Brownsburg will have 2 champs

 

10. Center Grove will have 3 champs

 

 

[Y2CJ41]

12 hours ago, hook and half said:

When discontinuing Team State, Bobby Cox pointed to the fact that the IHSWCA kept score at individual state minimized Team State.  Not sure about that one, Bobby.

 

The IHSWCA did keep score and award a "coaches trophy" to the team with the highest score. This was one reason, of many, for why they changed the tournament. The IHSAA stated something to the affect of "well the coaches must want team scoring since they do it themselves."

 

There were a laundry list of reasons, money, sending JV teams to team regional/semi-state, money, the "coaches trophy", money, etc.

[Cody LeCount]

In 2013 Perry Meridian scored 102.5 points and they did not score points on Friday night. I went through and did the math. We would've scored an extra 22 points if they did.

 

So the 2013 Perry Meridian team would've scored 124.5

[gsmith58]

2 hours ago, formercollegekid said:

10. Center Grove will have 3 champs

 

I'm assuming you expect Buchanan and Watson win, but who is your third Center Grove champ? Johnson, Merritt?

[navy80]

3 hours ago, Y2CJ41 said:

The IHSWCA did keep score and award a "coaches trophy" to the team with the highest score. This was one reason, of many, for why they changed the tournament. The IHSAA stated something to the affect of "well the coaches must want team scoring since they do it themselves."

 

There were a laundry list of reasons, money, sending JV teams to team regional/semi-state, money, the "coaches trophy", money, etc.

Does team state now make more profits than team state when the IHSAA ran it? I would think the IHSAA would see the $$ and take it over. Classed = more teams =more money! 

[Y2CJ41]

34 minutes ago, navy80 said:

Does team state now make more profits than team state when the IHSAA ran it? I would think the IHSAA would see the $$ and take it over. Classed = more teams =more money! 

That would be an IHSWCA question. 

 

I believe the IHSAA has stated "great job IHSWCA, we don't want it" or something of that nature.

[JORVILLE]

4 hours ago, formercollegekid said:

1. Cathedral is gonna make a push this year.

 

2. Crown Point will win.

 

3. Penn will bring like 10 guys to state.

 

4. Belmont will be the FWss champion.

 

5. E'vil strikes again as 

Center Grove vs EMD vs Brownsburg.... all have to battle to get guys out

 

6. The Mooresville regional is gonna be nasty. Really should be broken up by the ihsaa.

 

7. The Crown Point regional will tough. But not as deep as Mooresville. Likely produces 5 state champs. Testimony to how good cp is. 

 

8. Cp will have 4 champs 

 

9. Brownsburg will have 2 champs

 

10. Center Grove will have 3 champs

 

 

I’m thinking 10 is high for Penn. I will say 7/8

[busstogate]

3 minutes ago, JORVILLE said:

I’m thinking 10 is high for Penn. I will say 7/8

I say 3 to state for Penn.  But to split the middle with the others,  max 5.   If I am wrong, they are going to have a lot of Fri. night death draws.  My number is smaller because I think they are going to have a good number of rough ticket matches at semi-state as well.

[Cmoney125]

4 hours ago, busstogate said:

I say 3 to state for Penn.  But to split the middle with the others,  max 5.   If I am wrong, they are going to have a lot of Fri. night death draws.  My number is smaller because I think they are going to have a good number of rough ticket matches at semi-state as well.

I think 6 is realistic. I'm a Penn parent so I'm not going to say which weights as to not cause offense. But I think the number of 3 you said are pretty much the 3 locks to qualify. Probably. Lol.

[IndianaWrestlingGuy1]

22 hours ago, TeamGarcia said:

 
 

This crap looks to complicated for me, changing of the rules is Capital D.U.M.B also. 
 

Just give me on my Black 8 Ball Prediction 

-11 Placers, 4 Champs for Brownsburg  

-10 Placers, 3 Champ for Crown Point 

 

We can figure out the math at the end . 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11 placers for Brownsburg? Get over yourself. You don't even have one lock for a champ. Crown Point wins this title by 25 points. If lucky, Brownsburg gets second. I'll take EMD or CG to get 2nd over Brownsburg.