Toughest ticket round matchups

[BIGCATSontheMAT]

Let’s hear them!!

[jap1971]

Evansville 132 Hammack vs. Ison    OUCH

[84Coach]

Hutchison - Pretchel Ticket Round 

[NavyGonzo]

120 @ FW 

 

#5 Mosier vs #8 Holloway (For the 2nd year in a row)

[mcnorthcarolina]

Chase Leech vs Brant Beck

[Michael Berry]

Fort Wayne Semi State

 

Neal Mosier vs Ethan Halloway at 120

Chase Leech vs Brant Beck at 160

Deaglan Pleak vs Conner Watts at 160

Tye Lisner vs Gavin Cook at 132

Robert Dinn vs Brock Hagewood at 138

Ethan Reiley vs Brody Hagewood at 132

Jaquan East vs Easton Arsini at 170

Greyson Gard vs Gavin Davis at 152

Braylon McIntire vs Levi Johns at 113

(Braylon's only loss this year is in the regional finals against Jalen May, I think he is capable of beating Levi.)

Aaron Swango vs Cody Rowles at 126

 

and finally, this one is gonna come as a surprise, but...

 

Will Warnock (a 4 seed) vs Matt Levitz at 160. Will Warnock beat Jordan Aryes at regionals 6-4, and Jordan pinned Levi Abott. I think Will is gonna go to ticket round at the bare minimum.

 

If you want me to be honest, I don't think there is any formula to a semi state (besides the 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3), I think the IHSAA looks at the ranked kids and puts the higher ranked kids against each other every chance they get, and if you don't believe me, look at how many returning state qualifiers and placers are gonna be seeing each other in the ticket round.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Michael Berry

[rookie78]

9 hours ago, Michael Berry said:

Fort Wayne Semi State

 

Neal Mosier vs Ethan Halloway at 120

Chase Leech vs Brant Beck at 160

Deaglan Pleak vs Conner Watts at 160

Tye Lisner vs Gavin Cook at 132

Robert Dinn vs Brock Pagewood at 138

Ethan Reiley vs Brody Pagewood at 132

Jaquan East vs Easton Arsini at 170

Greyson Gard vs Gavin Davis at 152

Braylon McIntire vs Levi Johns at 113

(Braylon's only loss this year is in the regional finals against Jalen May, I think he is capable of beating Levi.)

Aaron Swango vs Cody Rowles at 126

 

and finally, this one is gonna come as a surprise, but...

 

Will Warnock (a 4 seed) vs Matt Levitz at 160. Will Warnock beat Jordan Aryes at regionals 6-4, and Jordan pinned Levi Abott. I think Will is gonna go to ticket round at the bare minimum.

 

If you want me to be honest, I don't think there is any formula to a semi state (besides the 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3), I think the IHSAA looks at the ranked kids and puts the higher ranked kids against each other every chance they get, and if you don't believe me, look at how many returning state qualifiers and placers are gonna be seeing each other in the ticket round.

not a big deal, but it's Hagewood......not Pagewood, LOL

[BrodyHardcastle]

12 hours ago, mcnorthcarolina said:

Chase Leech vs Brant Beck

They both have a hard nosed style and they're always in your face, this is going to be a straight up war.

[Y2CJ41]

9 hours ago, Michael Berry said:

If you want me to be honest, I don't think there is any formula to a semi state (besides the 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3), I think the IHSAA looks at the ranked kids and puts the higher ranked kids against each other every chance they get, and if you don't believe me, look at how many returning state qualifiers and placers are gonna be seeing each other in the ticket round.

 

The IHSAA doesn't care about rankings

[Michael Berry]

12 hours ago, Michael Berry said:

Fort Wayne Semi State

 

Neal Mosier vs Ethan Halloway at 120

Chase Leech vs Brant Beck at 160

Deaglan Pleak vs Conner Watts at 160

Tye Lisner vs Gavin Cook at 132

Robert Dinn vs Brock Hagewood at 138

Ethan Reiley vs Brody Hagewood at 132

Jaquan East vs Easton Arsini at 170

Greyson Gard vs Gavin Davis at 152

Braylon McIntire vs Levi Johns at 113

(Braylon's only loss this year is in the regional finals against Jalen May, I think he is capable of beating Levi.)

Aaron Swango vs Cody Rowles at 126

 

and finally, this one is gonna come as a surprise, but...

 

Will Warnock (a 4 seed) vs Matt Levitz at 160. Will Warnock beat Jordan Aryes at regionals 6-4, and Jordan pinned Levi Abott. I think Will is gonna go to ticket round at the bare minimum.

 

If you want me to be honest, I don't think there is any formula to a semi state (besides the 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3), I think the IHSAA looks at the ranked kids and puts the higher ranked kids against each other every chance they get, and if you don't believe me, look at how many returning state qualifiers and placers are gonna be seeing each other in the ticket round.

Didn't realize I spelled the Hagewood's last names wrong, fixed the mistake! ;D

[Michael Berry]

3 hours ago, Y2CJ41 said:

 

The IHSAA doesn't care about rankings

It's just what I believe. 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Michael Berry

[ontherise219]

4 hours ago, rookie78 said:

not a big deal, but it's Hagewood......not Pagewood, LOL

[Clint Gard]

I preface my next statement knowing that we only looked at our guys and our regional BUT something interesting one of my assistants found when he had some time on his hands back in the fall...

 

After looking at about 8-9 years of data, he predicted with 100% accuracy our draws for this Semi-State.  While the IHSAA says they are random...they are not.  There is a pattern to them and the pattern he found held true when he was predicting where we would fall.  Obviously he couldn't predict the match ups but he predicted the spots.  

 

It doesn't matter either way, but it's something we thought was interesting given that we are always told it's "Random".  Matter of fact...we are pretty sure the IHSAA used the same formula as last year.  Again, we haven't looked at all cases, but our 120/126/152 quarter brackets are in the exact same spots as last year wrestling the same regional spots.  Those are just 3 examples.

[rrschott]

11 minutes ago, Clint Gard said:

I preface my next statement knowing that we only looked at our guys and our regional BUT something interesting one of my assistants found when he had some time on his hands back in the fall...

 

After looking at about 8-9 years of data, he predicted with 100% accuracy our draws for this Semi-State.  While the IHSAA says they are random...they are not.  There is a pattern to them and the pattern he found held true when he was predicting where we would fall.  Obviously he couldn't predict the match ups but he predicted the spots.  

 

It doesn't matter either way, but it's something we thought was interesting given that we are always told it's "Random".  Matter of fact...we are pretty sure the IHSAA used the same formula as last year.  Again, we haven't looked at all cases, but our 120/126/152 quarter brackets are in the exact same spots as last year wrestling the same regional spots.  Those are just 3 examples.

I'm new to all this, but looking at all the Semi-state brackets, it looks like they just pick a regional to start with, line them up against another regional at 106 and let the placing do its thing within the bracket.  Then they move on to 113 and give them a different regional; wash, rinse, repeat up to 285.  The only real question is which regional you're going to get paired with at your weight, and I'm guessing they keep quiet about that ahead of time to try and keep the integrity of the regionals in tact (i.e. keep kids from trying to game their placement in regionals to get a more favorable matchup).  

But like I said, I'm pretty new to this; that's just what I see when I look at the brackets.

[Clint Gard]

31 minutes ago, rrschott said:

I'm new to all this, but looking at all the Semi-state brackets, it looks like they just pick a regional to start with, line them up against another regional at 106 and let the placing do its thing within the bracket.  Then they move on to 113 and give them a different regional; wash, rinse, repeat up to 285.  The only real question is which regional you're going to get paired with at your weight, and I'm guessing they keep quiet about that ahead of time to try and keep the integrity of the regionals in tact (i.e. keep kids from trying to game their placement in regionals to get a more favorable matchup).  

But like I said, I'm pretty new to this; that's just what I see when I look at the brackets.

Then it's not random...IMO.  I'm a math teacher and the combinations and permutations that are possible make it almost impossible to come out with the exact same draws in consecutive years.  Again, I really don't care.  I just thought it was interesting what we were able to find.  What'd I'd really like is the for the IHSAA to be honest and actually make it random. 

[Bulldog89]

5 minutes ago, Clint Gard said:

Then it's not random...IMO.  I'm a math teacher and the combinations and permutations that are possible make it almost impossible to come out with the exact same draws in consecutive years.  Again, I really don't care.  I just thought it was interesting what we were able to find.  What'd I'd really like is the for the IHSAA to be honest and actually make it random. 

Looking at last years Fort Wayne Semi State pairings compared to 2023:

 

2022

126#

A wrestled C

B wrestled D

 

132#

A wrestled B

C wrestled D

 

2023

126#

A is wrestling D

B is wrestling C

 

132#

A is wrestling C

B is wrestling D

 

Hopefully I did it right.

[rrschott]

1 minute ago, Clint Gard said:

Then it's not random...IMO.  I'm a math teacher and the combinations and permutations that are possible make it almost impossible to come out with the exact same draws in consecutive years.  Again, I really don't care.  I just thought it was interesting what we were able to find.  What'd I'd really like is the for the IHSAA to be honest and actually make it random. 

I mean, there's only 3 possible combinations to start, so it's only 1/27 you get the same draw 3 years in a row.  And if it's a formula that starts at 106 and goes up, then you're 1/27 that the entire bracket matches across 3 years.  And that's assuming they don't do something like using team points as the determination for who gets matched up at 106 (which would be pretty easy to reverse engineer if someone were intrepid enough to lookup team points and compare them to the bracket)

Looking at it a little more, this year just looks alphabetical at 106, then branches out from there (which is admittedly not random at all).

[JORVILLE]

1 hour ago, Clint Gard said:

I preface my next statement knowing that we only looked at our guys and our regional BUT something interesting one of my assistants found when he had some time on his hands back in the fall...

 

After looking at about 8-9 years of data, he predicted with 100% accuracy our draws for this Semi-State.  While the IHSAA says they are random...they are not.  There is a pattern to them and the pattern he found held true when he was predicting where we would fall.  Obviously he couldn't predict the match ups but he predicted the spots.  

 

It doesn't matter either way, but it's something we thought was interesting given that we are always told it's "Random".  Matter of fact...we are pretty sure the IHSAA used the same formula as last year.  Again, we haven't looked at all cases, but our 120/126/152 quarter brackets are in the exact same spots as last year wrestling the same regional spots.  Those are just 3 examples.

Should do a live lottery drawing and make public not the behind the scenes here you go brackets 

[Y2CJ41]

1 minute ago, rrschott said:

I mean, there's only 3 possible combinations to start, so it's only 1/27 you get the same draw 3 years in a row.  And if it's a formula that starts at 106 and goes up, then you're 1/27 that the entire bracket matches across 3 years.  And that's assuming they don't do something like using team points as the determination for who gets matched up at 106 (which would be pretty easy to reverse engineer if someone were intrepid enough to lookup team points and compare them to the bracket)

Looking at it a little more, this year just looks alphabetical at 106, then branches out from there (which is admittedly not random at all).

There are 12 different formulas that can be used for the way the brackets are done. Remember 1's and 4's and 2's and 3's from the same regional are on the same half.

 

1. A1B4C3D2 B1A4D3C2 C1D4A3B2 D1C4B3A2
2. A1B4C3D2 B1A4D3C2 C1D4B3A2 D1C4A3B2
3. A1B4D3C2 B1A4C3D2 C1D4A3B2 D1C4B3A2
4. A1B4D3C2 B1A4C3D2 C1D4B3A2 D1C4A3B2
5. A1C4B3D2 C1A4D3B2 B1D4A3C2 D1B4C3A2
6. A1C4B3D2 C1A4D3B2 B1D4C3A2 D1B4A3C2
7. A1C4D3B2 C1A4B3D2 B1D4A3C2 D1B4C3A2
8. A1C4D3B2 C1A4B3D2 B1D4C3A2 D1B4A3C2
9. A1D4B3C2 D1A4C3B2 B1C4A3D2 C1B4D3A2
10. A1D4B3C2 D1A4C3B2 B1C4D3A2 C1B4A3D2
11. A1D4C3B2 D1A4B3C2 B1C4A3D2 C1B4D3A2
12. A1D4C3B2 D1A4B3C2 B1C4D3A2 C1B4A3D2

[GBaldwin]

2 minutes ago, JORVILLE said:

Should do a live lottery drawing and make public not the behind the scenes here you go brackets 

That would be a long long day, The anticipation of that lottery draw would kill most parents, Especially if your wrestler is in the upper weight classes.

[Clint Gard]

19 minutes ago, Bulldog89 said:

Looking at last years Fort Wayne Semi State pairings compared to 2023:

 

2022

126#

A wrestled C

B wrestled D

 

132#

A wrestled B

C wrestled D

 

2023

126#

A is wrestling D

B is wrestling C

 

132#

A is wrestling C

B is wrestling D

 

Hopefully I did it right.

I just wrote it out on paper and found the same thing so I stand corrected at 126.  

[X_R A T E D]

55 minutes ago, Clint Gard said:

Then it's not random...IMO.  I'm a math teacher and the combinations and permutations that are possible make it almost impossible to come out with the exact same draws in consecutive years.  Again, I really don't care.  I just thought it was interesting what we were able to find.  What'd I'd really like is the for the IHSAA to be honest and actually make it random. 

 

I looked up the brackets for one of my wrestlers and found an interesting trend. In Fort Wayne at 182, Jay County 2nd place has had Carroll 1st place 9 out of 11 years. 
 

2013: Peru 1

2014 to 2021: Carroll 1

2022: Goshen 1

2023: Carroll 1

Edited February 6, 2023 by X_R A T E D
Correction on numbers

[aoberlin]

14 minutes ago, X_R A T E D said:

 

I looked up the brackets for one of my wrestlers and found an interesting trend. In Fort Wayne at 182, Jay County 2nd place has had Carroll 1st place 9 out of 11 years. 
 

2013: Peru 1

2014 to 2021: Carroll 1

2022: Goshen 1

2023: Carroll 1

THAT REALLY SUCKS THE LAST 2 YEARS!

[GenHeavyHandz]

I never understood this focusing on the draw.  You gotta beat the guy infront of you to go to state.  Line'em up;Knock'em down! Don't let this distract you from the fact that my grapevine,tended to by Dionysus and Juan Valdez: tells me The Panther's wont have to drive far to pick up their hardware in 2024.  

[Bulldog89]

1 minute ago, GenHeavyHandz said:

I never understood this focusing on the draw.  You gotta beat the guy infront of you to go to state.  Line'em up;Knock'em down! Don't let this distract you from the fact that my grapevine,tended to by Dionysus and Juan Valdez: tells me The Panther's wont have to drive far to pick up their hardware in 2024.  

PREACH ON GENERAL!!!