2023 Al Smith Predictions and Analysis

[rookie78]

2 hours ago, PurdueWrestlingFan197 said:

Someone please let me know when day 2 starts. I haven’t been to the Al Smith since I wrestled in it, with it being so deep this would be a great time for me to tune in! 

9 am start

[Y2CJ41]

17 hours ago, TrueRegionFan said:

Especially at 126.  Tell me something @ontherise219, how does the #2 ranked kid in the state get seeded 6th in an in-state tournament like the Al Smith?

The great thing about seeding is that after the meeting the kids get to actually wrestle it out. It's a weird concept to some who think that the seeding meeting determines placement, but it's actually winning on the mat that does that.

[GenHeavyHandz]

Just now, Y2CJ41 said:

The great thing about seeding is that after the meeting the kids get to actually wrestle it out. It's a weird concept to some who think that the seeding meeting determines placement, but it's actually winning on the mat that does that.

Here, here.  That's al I'm saying.

[codyA]

Does anybody know if the semi finals and finals will be streamed anywhere? 

[HWTDAD]

23 minutes ago, codyA said:

Does anybody know if the semi finals and finals will be streamed anywhere? 

I hope so, some great matchups

[X_R A T E D]

1 hour ago, codyA said:

Does anybody know if the semi finals and finals will be streamed anywhere? 

I'm not sure about semi finals but IHSAATV has a future broadcast listed for Al Smith Finals at 2pm 

[TrueRegionFan]

1 hour ago, Y2CJ41 said:

The great thing about seeding is that after the meeting the kids get to actually wrestle it out. It's a weird concept to some who think that the seeding meeting determines placement, but it's actually winning on the mat that does that.

Yep, that is a weird concept.  However, if you don't think seeding plays a part in determining placement and it is just the wrestling on the mat, then why even seed?  Seeding Hawkins 6th at the Al Smith really doesn't affect him.  Seeding plays a bigger role for folks in his bracket (and other brackets) who may have different goals like trying to place, or make it to the semi finals, etc.  Not everyone has a realistic goal of winning the Al Smith. 

 

Here is a legitimate question for you.

 

Hawkins is the #2 ranked kid in the state.  He is seeded 6th.  Rinehart is the #1 ranked wrestler in the state and is seeded 3rd. Neither wrestler has lost a match this year to an Indiana wrestler.  Both did not wrestle in the state tournament last year.  Both were ranked #1 starting the year last year.  Hawkins ended up not wrestling.  Rinehart missed weight at regionals.  They didn't lose to anyone to knock them out of the tournament, so why does that factor so heavy on the seeding? Either the state rankings are flawed, or the seeding criteria is flawed.  Which is it?

 

Again, to be clear, I don't believe either Hawkins or Rinehart are affected regardless of seeding or if you don't want to seed them at all.  They are both good enough to work their way through the bracket. It is the other folks in the bracket that potentially get affected.

[The Professor Morgan]

Rankings have no bearing on seeding.  Seeding is based on different criteria such as returning state qualifier/placer, returning Al Smith placer, head to head, common opponents etc.

[ontherise219]

For the rankings I use a lot of factors and some opinion. But one of factors I use for rankings that isn’t used for off season results. I think Hawkins is the number 2 kid in the weight possibly #1. Tishner would have had Criteria over Shaffer due to last years medal rounds. Due to the seeding criteria even if Landon was undefeated 

there were 4 guys with state finals appearances ahead of him. 
 

I wasn’t at the meeting but I do believe the coaches had the opportunity to argue for higher seeded 

 

Sometimes the state rankings don’t match my semi state rankings and I can tell you neither matches my pick’ems 

[Oddsmaker]

Agreed with all of the above, the fine folks that do the rankings are not involved in the seeding meetings, nor are the coaches required to use their rankings as criteria.  Looking at the brackets, the semi finals have all top 4 seeds other than 113/126/175/190 (which have 3 of the top 4 seeds).  I would say in my opinion the seeding still worked out fairly accurate.

[ontherise219]

Great win by Swathwood at 113 to knock off the #1 seed 

 

Hawkins is tough, losing his freshman year put him in a tough spot 

 

 

[TrueRegionFan]

14 minutes ago, ontherise219 said:

For the rankings I use a lot of factors and some opinion. But one of factors I use for rankings that isn’t used for off season results. I think Hawkins is the number 2 kid in the weight possibly #1. Tishner would have had Criteria over Shaffer due to last years medal rounds. Due to the seeding criteria even if Landon was undefeated 

there were 4 guys with state finals appearances ahead of him. 
 

I wasn’t at the meeting but I do believe the coaches had the opportunity to argue for higher seeded 

 

Sometimes the state rankings don’t match my semi state rankings and I can tell you neither matches my pick’ems 

That helps and makes sense.  Thanks Mike!

[Y2CJ41]

2 hours ago, TrueRegionFan said:

Yep, that is a weird concept.  However, if you don't think seeding plays a part in determining placement and it is just the wrestling on the mat, then why even seed?  Seeding Hawkins 6th at the Al Smith really doesn't affect him.  Seeding plays a bigger role for folks in his bracket (and other brackets) who may have different goals like trying to place, or make it to the semi finals, etc.  Not everyone has a realistic goal of winning the Al Smith. 

 

Here is a legitimate question for you.

 

Hawkins is the #2 ranked kid in the state.  He is seeded 6th.  Rinehart is the #1 ranked wrestler in the state and is seeded 3rd. Neither wrestler has lost a match this year to an Indiana wrestler.  Both did not wrestle in the state tournament last year.  Both were ranked #1 starting the year last year.  Hawkins ended up not wrestling.  Rinehart missed weight at regionals.  They didn't lose to anyone to knock them out of the tournament, so why does that factor so heavy on the seeding? Either the state rankings are flawed, or the seeding criteria is flawed.  Which is it?

 

Again, to be clear, I don't believe either Hawkins or Rinehart are affected regardless of seeding or if you don't want to seed them at all.  They are both good enough to work their way through the bracket. It is the other folks in the bracket that potentially get affected.

Seeding and the state rankings are two different entities and very rarely cross into the same atmosphere.

 

Rankings are basically ranking kid's resumes against each other which takes into account off season, youth, ISWA, Super 32, etc events. They can also take into account how matches were won or loss, by how much, and even if "he was caught." There are also many times where wrestlers hit during the off-season at ISWA, IHPO, Fr/So State, etc that we use those head to heads in the rankings. Hawkins and Rinehart both have very good resumes compared to the field in their weight classes. Both of their resumes extend WAY outside of the IHSAA season.

 

In short the purpose of rankings are to recognize those kids by putting those resumes in some sort of semi-logical order.

 

(For in season IHSAA events) Seeding is a set criteria on separating kids in a bracket so that the best kids wrestle in the later rounds as much as possible. For seeding to be done best there needs be strong, but at times flexible criteria in order to gain the goal of bracket separation. Seeding is NOT a predication of the order in which they will finish. 

 

Again the purpose of seeding is to separate the better wrestlers and have the better matches later in the event rather than something like a random draw where the top two kids could hit in the first round.

 

If the powers that be at the Al Smith said that IndianaMat rankings would be a criteria I don't think many coaches would argue too much as they have been proven over and over again likely a tad better than the actual seeding criteria. That is mainly due to the vast data we utilize for a kid's "resume." For seeding purposes the "resume" is built upon in-season matches and the previous year's state tournament and Al Smith finishes and that's it. Expanding that resume for seeding to include ISWA, IHPO, Super 32, etc would make the seeding way more accurate in "predicting" the finishes of the kids. That is akin to me telling you to make a decision giving you three factors vs. ten factors, you'll make the best decision if you utilize more factors.

 

In short, the Al Smith seeding was not trying to predict winners and losers, but to try to separate the best kids so that they meet in the quarters, semi's, or finals as best possible with strong criteria. I think we achieved that goal for the most part, but as usual there were a handful of kids that we(Mike and I...and others) knew should have been seeded or seeded higher due to their resumes beyond the IHSAA season.

[casualwrestlingfan]

The IHSAA is ashamed of the process. How dare you seed a tournament? Don't you know that random draw of ping pong balls is the proper method? We need proverbial 1 seed vs 2 seed matches first round. 

[TrueRegionFan]

5 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Seeding and the state rankings are two different entities and very rarely cross into the same atmosphere.

 

Rankings are basically ranking kid's resumes against each other which takes into account off season, youth, ISWA, Super 32, etc events. They can also take into account how matches were won or loss, by how much, and even if "he was caught." There are also many times where wrestlers hit during the off-season at ISWA, IHPO, Fr/So State, etc that we use those head to heads in the rankings. Hawkins and Rinehart both have very good resumes compared to the field in their weight classes. Both of their resumes extend WAY outside of the IHSAA season.

 

In short the purpose of rankings are to recognize those kids by putting those resumes in some sort of semi-logical order.

 

(For in season IHSAA events) Seeding is a set criteria on separating kids in a bracket so that the best kids wrestle in the later rounds as much as possible. For seeding to be done best there needs be strong, but at times flexible criteria in order to gain the goal of bracket separation. Seeding is NOT a predication of the order in which they will finish. 

 

Again the purpose of seeding is to separate the better wrestlers and have the better matches later in the event rather than something like a random draw where the top two kids could hit in the first round.

 

If the powers that be at the Al Smith said that IndianaMat rankings would be a criteria I don't think many coaches would argue too much as they have been proven over and over again likely a tad better than the actual seeding criteria. That is mainly due to the vast data we utilize for a kid's "resume." For seeding purposes the "resume" is built upon in-season matches and the previous year's state tournament and Al Smith finishes and that's it. Expanding that resume for seeding to include ISWA, IHPO, Super 32, etc would make the seeding way more accurate in "predicting" the finishes of the kids. That is akin to me telling you to make a decision giving you three factors vs. ten factors, you'll make the best decision if you utilize more factors.

 

In short, the Al Smith seeding was not trying to predict winners and losers, but to try to separate the best kids so that they meet in the quarters, semi's, or finals as best possible with strong criteria. I think we achieved that goal for the most part, but as usual there were a handful of kids that we(Mike and I...and others) knew should have been seeded or seeded higher due to their resumes beyond the IHSAA season.

That is a great explanation.  Thank you and thank you for indulging!

[Y2CJ41]

2 hours ago, Oddsmaker said:

Agreed with all of the above, the fine folks that do the rankings are not involved in the seeding meetings, nor are the coaches required to use their rankings as criteria.  Looking at the brackets, the semi finals have all top 4 seeds other than 113/126/175/190 (which have 3 of the top 4 seeds).  I would say in my opinion the seeding still worked out fairly accurate.

Well... IndianaMat was a little involved with the seeding. For the most part there were very little disagreements even when we utilized "special" criteria. 

 

Some that we moved up due to that criteria included:

Hawkins- He slid in right below everyone with state finals experience. If we went strictly on criteria he would have not been seeded.
Vargo- Very talented freshman that was slotted a couple places higher

165 top 3 were a mess- ND state champ, State and Al Smith Placer, missed weight and Al Smith champ. Here is what it would have looked like if we went strictly on criteria.

It could have been argued via strict criteria that Rinehart be moved to the 8 seed also due to all those above him being a ticket rounder or better.

[Y2CJ41]

To add to the fun, here are the 6 unseeded wrestlers that made the second day and their "reasons"

 

 

Here is the breakdown of seeds and who is still in the tournament

[frigginhurts]

Noticed Johnson has pinned all 3 opponents in less than 30 seconds.    CG has 2 of the best 285s in the state if Johnson is not full time varsity.   Did he get beat out by an underclassmen?

[AndyStJ]

7 hours ago, Y2CJ41 said:

To add to the fun, here are the 6 unseeded wrestlers that made the second day and their "reasons"

 

 

Here is the breakdown of seeds and who is still in the tournament

The most interesting thing here, aside from the top 4 seed being strong, is that 9 of 14 number 9 seeds made it to day 2. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by AndyStJ
Oops

[JORVILLE]

2 hours ago, AndyStJ said:

The most interesting thing here, aside from the top 4 seed being strong, is that 9 of 14 number 9 seeds made it to day 2. 

It’s one spot difference and I think most 8/9 match ups are a toss up most the time. 

[TysonNisley]

Lots of semi final upsets at Al Smith this year!

 

120: Aubin over Larocca 7-4

144: Arberry over Walker (fall)

157: Pellot over Betz 2-1

175: Leech over Russell 8-4

 

Also not an upset but:

 

215: Clark over Winegart 8-7 (new title contender)

 

 

[buttler73]

I thought I saw the Finals was going to be on facebook page

???

[RealRosey]

Ihsaatv.Com. Search Al smith. It says it starts streaming at 2 EST

[RealRosey]

Maybe .org instead of .com

[TysonNisley]

On 12/28/2023 at 1:50 PM, GenHeavyHandz said:

Nice, nice. Kendi Quoi 138 from Snider is ranked #14.  Hopefully after this tournament you won't forget him.  Ethan Dodson is underrated and I'll leave it at that.

Underrated is right, 1-0 over Hosia Smith in the consi semis.