Team State qualification leaderboard 2023 (FINAL)

[maligned]

Here is the final leaderboard for Team State qualification. 

 

"Returning" = Sectional starters returning

 

* = Injury adjustment to points

 

Teams in purple are in line for automatic bids. If you read the procedures document for this year, you know that both final wildcards in all classes will be voted on in December instead of one happening in the spring.

 

Team State 2023 Qualifying Leaderboard.xlsx

 

If you're on a Desktop, use the linked XLSX file. If you're on a phone, you can click several times to zoom in here:

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by maligned

[Nate Spangle]

Man I hate to complain already… but the sectional assigned categories seem to still be a mystery to me.

 

I appreciate all the hard work that goes into this and I know that it’s tough to make everyone happy. 

 

But it’s hard for me to grasp that the Peru and West Noble regionals would be rated 5.

 

The fact that New Castle has: 
(1) 5 rated sectional
(4) 4 rated sectionals
(3) 3 rated sectionals

While Fort Wayne has: 
(3) 5 rated sectionals
(5) 4 rated sectionals

 

Is also wild  to me. 

 

I can do the math tomorrow... but it would seem like Fort Wayne has a larger pool of points to pull from than New Castle due to the increased difficulty ratings. 

 

Then on top of that. Nothing takes into account the number of larger schools that eat up points for smaller schools. 

New Castle has 
5 of the top 15 rated 4A Schools
3 of the top 15 rated 3A schools 

 

Fort Wayne has 
1 of the top 15 rated 4A schools

3 of the top 15 rated 3A schools

Or the fact that Western just won the 2A team state, has 3 seniors and is ranked #9

While Bellmont got 7th, has 3 seniors, and is ranked #2.  (Final score of that dual 60-12) 
 

We are going to fall at a similar point level to last year and well out of the top 10 even though our post season numbers increased with underclassmen. 

 

So we will go back to the drawing board and revamp our schedule again to add even more ranked teams so we can get a nod for the wildcard. 

 

That being said. If anyone in the top 10 wants to get us on the schedule for next year before the 3rd week of December we are game. 

[maligned]

6 hours ago, Nate Spangle said:

Man I hate to complain already… but the sectional assigned categories seem to still be a mystery to me.

 

I appreciate all the hard work that goes into this and I know that it’s tough to make everyone happy. 

 

But it’s hard for me to grasp that the Peru and West Noble regionals would be rated 5.

 

The fact that New Castle has: 
(1) 5 rated sectional
(4) 4 rated sectionals
(3) 3 rated sectionals

While Fort Wayne has: 
(3) 5 rated sectionals
(5) 4 rated sectionals

 

Is also wild  to me. 

 

I can do the math tomorrow... but it would seem like Fort Wayne has a larger pool of points to pull from than New Castle due to the increased difficulty ratings. 

 

Then on top of that. Nothing takes into account the number of larger schools that eat up points for smaller schools. 

New Castle has 
5 of the top 15 rated 4A Schools
3 of the top 15 rated 3A schools 

 

Fort Wayne has 
1 of the top 15 rated 4A schools

3 of the top 15 rated 3A schools

Or the fact that Western just won the 2A team state, has 3 seniors and is ranked #9

While Bellmont got 7th, has 3 seniors, and is ranked #2.  (Final score of that dual 60-12) 
 

We are going to fall at a similar point level to last year and well out of the top 10 even though our post season numbers increased with underclassmen. 

 

So we will go back to the drawing board and revamp our schedule again to add even more ranked teams so we can get a nod for the wildcard. 

 

That being said. If anyone in the top 10 wants to get us on the schedule for next year before the 3rd week of December we are game. 

This is the big misunderstanding about sectional and regional categories that happens every year. The Categories measure crowdedness--not top end talent. The big urban centers in the northwest and in Indy have dropped off dramatically in their "crowdedness" at the sectional level. What I mean by that is: you have many schools with very few regional-level or semi-state level kids at each site compared to the past.

Meanwhile, the top-end talent is all still there and killing it at the semi-state and state level to give the impression that it's still just as hard to get out of those sectionals and regionals as in the past. It's just not. It's way less crowded.

 

Two examples based on things you mentioned:

 

Based on Genius ratings, projected regional qualifiers if in an "average" sectional:

 

IndyTech sectional:

Cathedral 13

Mt Vernon 10

Chatard 10

Lawrence North 9

North Central 6

Brebeuf, Deaf, Tech, LC all between 1.9 and 3.5

 

Average: slightly over 4 per weight class

Rounded Category: 4

 

West Noble sectional:

Angola, Dekalb, East Noble, Prairie Heights all 9 or 10

Central Noble, Fremont, Lakeland, West Noble all 6 or 7

Westview 2

 

Average: slightly under 5 per weight class

Rounded Category: 5

 

Because of the high-end Cathedral lineup and 3 other solid teams, you'll end up with great success at semi-state and state compared to the West Noble sectional.

But the Categories are not meant to predict who gets more state qualifiers or placers from a sectional. They're meant to control for how crowded the sectional is. The West Noble sectional is very crowded.

Compared to average-level sectionals, it's slightly more challenging to advance to regional or to place Top 6 at West Noble than at your sectional because of the steep drop-off in quality after the top 4 teams. The Categories reflect this.

 

 

 

 

 

[Nate Spangle]

I am following with the crowdedness. Appreciate the additional context. 

 

Glad to see that the 2 wild card vote-ins will be in December vs May. 
 

We are happy to host the first 5 schools out of the vote-in for a super dual. When the final placements come out I will reach out the numbers 11-15 to try and find a date in early December. 

Hosting our own Wildcard weekend in Indy. 

[bulldog145]

So dual meet results don't factor in at all??

[randalllynch]

Can we see the complete list, more for curiosity and team motivation reasons than anything else.

[maligned]

4 minutes ago, bulldog145 said:

So dual meet results don't factor in at all??

The Genius ratings and Categories are comprised completely based on teams' dual meet ability, as shown by the entire season of results (minus football interference in the first 2 weeks after a team is eliminated from the football season).

 

The Qualification scoring is based on individuals' advancement through the state series and how that contributes to their team's Duals quality next year. For example, in 1A a returning state qualifier is shown historically to be worth about 7 or 8 more in dual meet point differential against other 1A schools than a returning sectional non-placer. 

[maligned]

5 minutes ago, randalllynch said:

Can we see the complete list, more for curiosity and team motivation reasons than anything else.

Someone else was asking for the Genius ratings. I'll clean them up and post them.

[randalllynch]

Thank you Sir!

 

[alee1022]

Hey can we please fix the board. Jasper is a 2A wrestling school and I feel like this is why we've been getting hurt on the board or being over looked at as a qualifying team. For some reason we were ranked 10th in 3A. We figured out that we are in fact a 2A team and nothing was fixed. And or not considered for 2A team state. 

[maligned]

16 minutes ago, alee1022 said:

Hey can we please fix the board. Jasper is a 2A wrestling school and I feel like this is why we've been getting hurt on the board or being over looked at as a qualifying team. For some reason we were ranked 10th in 3A. We figured out that we are in fact a 2A team and nothing was fixed. And or not considered for 2A team state. 

I'm sorry if there was some confusion on this. You're 3A and you were also 3A last year. Here are the classification numbers we posted previously:

 

https://indianamat.com/applications/core/interface/file/attachment.php?id=4061&key=476486a5eb6251a9c5379bea86db7eca

Edited February 8, 2023 by maligned

[RASSLER4LIFE]

I would definitely like to see the scoring for all schools. 

[maligned]

 

3 minutes ago, RASSLER4LIFE said:

I would definitely like to see the scoring for all schools. 

We'll post all of them in detail, with scores, number of team forfeits, and number of kids remaining in the tournament as soon as we can cross-check everything fully. We were way behind, so I wanted to get a provisional board out; but it's not all verified yet. 

[artie_wrestler]

A little confused on the 3A. 

 

Franklin Community is sitting pretty high with 6 Regional Qualifiers (all underclassmen). None advanced to Semi-State. 

 

However, Martinsville sends 8 to Regionals with 5 underclassmen. Then 4 to semi-state with 2 underclassmen. 

 

I believe the Mooresville sectional would have the "Crowdedness" factor. 31 of the 56 Semi-state Qualifiers come from the Mooresville sectional compared to the Avon sectional. 

 

Just a little confused. Not complaining at all. And thank you for all your work and all you do. 

 

Coming through the Mooresville sectional, Regional, and EV Semi is absolutely brutal. 

[brickfor6]

51 minutes ago, artie_wrestler said:

A little confused on the 3A. 

 

Franklin Community is sitting pretty high with 6 Regional Qualifiers (all underclassmen). None advanced to Semi-State. 

 

However, Martinsville sends 8 to Regionals with 5 underclassmen. Then 4 to semi-state with 2 underclassmen. 

 

I believe the Mooresville sectional would have the "Crowdedness" factor. 31 of the 56 Semi-state Qualifiers come from the Mooresville sectional compared to the Avon sectional. 

 

Just a little confused. Not complaining at all. And thank you for all your work and all you do. 

 

Coming through the Mooresville sectional, Regional, and EV Semi is absolutely brutal. 

Easiest way I have found out to compare is to write out the points that each guy has earned individually using the IHSWCA Team State Duals Qualification Procedures 2023.pdf

Write out Franklin line up

Write out Martinsville line up

Then compare. 

[brickfor6]

13 hours ago, maligned said:

3A TOP 15

Terre Haute South Vigo
Greenfield-Central
Floyd Central
DeKalb
Roncalli
Franklin Community
New Haven
Fort Wayne Snider
Lowell
Bloomington South
Mishawaka
Plymouth
Jasper
Pendleton Heights
Columbus East

Columbus East, Hobart, Mishawaka, East Central all on the outside looking in... I can see ALOT of change happening this week with this list.

[Jstephenson1356]

We are at the same regional as norwell. They came out with 3 placers we came out with 5 they had 2 third placers and a 4th we had 3 2nd place finishers and 2 thirds. Two of our runner ups were seniors. Take those out and we still have a runner up and two thirds from regionals while they have a 3rd and two fourths. Yet they are in 16th and we aren’t in the top 25? We also came into regionals with more kids than them so I’m not understanding how they are scoring way ahead of us

[Thor]

21 minutes ago, Jstephenson1356 said:

We are at the same regional as norwell. They came out with 3 placers we came out with 5 they had 2 third placers and a 4th we had 3 2nd place finishers and 2 thirds. Two of our runner ups were seniors. Take those out and we still have a runner up and two thirds from regionals while they have a 3rd and two fourths. Yet they are in 16th and we aren’t in the top 25? We also came into regionals with more kids than them so I’m not understanding how they are scoring way ahead of us

The difference is the sectional difficulty. Jay is a category 5 and Delta is a category 4. While Yorktown wrestlers are getting points pretty much straight up to their values, Norwell gets a bump up due to the sectional. They had several guys end up in fifth place at sectional, but since it's Jay that gets them regional qualifier points. I ran the math, and Norwell is roughly 30 points ahead of Yorktown per my calculation. So you can debate the category, but that's how they got there. 

[Thor]

Also me today doing math while waiting for the official scores. 

 

[HornetSloan]

This has been an eye opening and informative thread. Thanks, gents!

[Clint Gard]

33 minutes ago, Thor said:

The difference is the sectional difficulty. Jay is a category 5 and Delta is a category 4. While Yorktown wrestlers are getting points pretty much straight up to their values, Norwell gets a bump up due to the sectional. They had several guys end up in fifth place at sectional, but since it's Jay that gets them regional qualifier points. I ran the math, and Norwell is roughly 30 points ahead of Yorktown per my calculation. So you can debate the category, but that's how they got there. 

How does the category points play in to the calculations?  I just used the chart for under and upperclassmen and Rochester has 205.  Is that correct or am I missing something with the Sectional and Regional Quota Numbers?

[Diep]

Keep on the lookout for Fishers High School. Only 3 of the 14 starters are graduating. 

This year's lineup:

106 - Freshman (Sectional Champion, Semi-State Qualifier)

113 - Freshman

120 - Sophomore (Sectional & Regional Champion, Semi-State Qualifier)

126 - Senior

132 - Senior

138 - Senior

145 - Junior (Regional Qualifier)

152 - Junior

160 - Freshman (Semi-State Qualifier)

170 - Junior (Regional Qualifier)

182 - Sophomore (Semi-State Qualifier)

195 - Freshman

220 - Freshman (Regional Qualifier)

285 - Freshman

[Jcjcjc]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rQZYc8VdEX40WefZns20qygLmsR-E4qt7pUo_5vJXCs/edit?usp=sharing

 

Here's how I keep track of my team's score. Sometimes I make one of other teams. 

[Thor]

40 minutes ago, Clint Gard said:

How does the category points play in to the calculations?  I just used the chart for under and upperclassmen and Rochester has 205.  Is that correct or am I missing something with the Sectional and Regional Quota Numbers?

The category really helps some of your lower placers get to go one step higher or lower based on their placement. Peru is category 5, so if you have a fifth placer at sectional or regional, then you get regional and semi state points for that wrestler. You had a fifth at sectional and a fifth at regional, so you get bumped points for those two due to being a category 5 sectional and regional. I actually have you with 216 points. 

[bomber_bob]

5 minutes ago, Thor said:

The category really helps some of your lower placers get to go one step higher or lower based on their placement. Peru is category 5, so if you have a fifth placer at sectional or regional, then you get regional and semi state points for that wrestler. You had a fifth at sectional and a fifth at regional, so you get bumped points for those two due to being a category 5 sectional and regional. I actually have you with 216 points. 

So this is one thing that has always tripped me up....if I am in a category 5 Regional, and I lose to the Regional champ first round, I earn Semi-State Qualifier points?

 

Theoretically, if I finish 4th in my Sectional and lose to the champ in the 1st round at Regionals, I could score more points than the kid I lost to for 3rd place at Sectionals? Yet, at some other Regionals (Category 3 or lower), you could have a kid who places 4th in the Regional and actually qualify for the Semi-State also score less than the same kid who is in a Category 5 and placed 4th in his Sectional?