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maligned

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maligned last won the day on April 18 2020

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About maligned

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    Olympian

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    Djibouti
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    I hate baby Yoda

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  1. Vote-in candidates at 1A now updated to include Bremen according to our special covid-year provisions. They had 13 starters out due to quarantine. We found they had good evidence that their score would have most likely been between 154 and 166 (other vote-in candidates are at 153 to 169.5). They return 13 starters--all .500 records or better--and their lone senior starter had multiple wins over semi-state and state qualifiers. Several other teams had me help them figure out the effects of covid on their score as well. No others were very close to justifying inclusion in the vote.
  2. His duck was unbelievable and he could get out from under anyone--but, man, he did not know how to defend. He'd basically trip over himself if you tied up with him. He lost a LOT of tight 21-18 thrillers.
  3. Hartman killed it. How often has someone gotten top 5 in every semi-state plus state?
  4. Ha. Just seemed like you didn't realize it had been mentioned. My bad
  5. You're a little late to the party. We were discussing it a bit on page 1 of this thread.
  6. If you think your team was so affected by Covid-19 at any level of the state series that it kept you from scoring enough points to be in voting consideration for Team State, please PM me on this site. Before you PM me, please look at the final leaderboards and the scoring rules links below. You will need to be able to give concrete data (head to heads from this season or advancement level last season) that proves you could have scored enough points to be in the voting if not for covid. You don't need to have all of that fully figured out, but you should look at where your team sta
  7. It's simpler than you're making it. Say we have Ev1 and Ev2 from Ev North and Jeff1 and Jeff2 from Jeff as your top 4. We anchor Ev1 to bracket A. Then there are three possibilities for where Jeff1 ends up. Let's then look at only the quarterfinals, since we're only concerned about the 1s and 2s that come through in this scenario. Possibility 1 (1 in 3 chance): Jeff1 falls into bracket B (same half as Ev1). In all scenarios then, Ev2 and Jeff2 will be in the opposite half and in different quarters from each other since they are both 2s. This is a full 33% of all scenarios and alway
  8. Here is the 1A leaderboard through state. Semi-state automatic bids: Prairie Heights, North Posey, Centerville, Rensselaer Central Automatic wildcards: Rochester, Adams Central, Cowan, Southridge, Southmont, Daleville Voting candidates for the 11th team: Bluffton, Tell City, Manchester, Winamac, Bremen Remember that this year we will select the 12th team in mid-December from among all previously uninvited teams.
  9. Here is the 2A leaderboard through state. Semi-state automatic bids: Bellmont, Wawasee, Charlestown, Hamilton Heights Automatic wildcards: New Prairie, Garrett, Jay County, Western, Oak Hill, Peru Voting candidates for the 11th team: Tippecanoe Valley, Evansville Memorial, Maconaquah, Leo, Monrovia, West Lafayette, Kankakee Valley, Norwell, Jimtown, FW Dwenger, Northwood, Mount Vernon (Posey) Remember that this year we will select the 12th team in mid-December from among all previously uninvited teams.
  10. Here is the 3A leaderboard through state. Semi-state automatic bids: Columbus East, East Central, Mishawaka, Columbia City Automatic wildcards: Floyd Central, Franklin Voting candidates for the 7th team: Roncalli, Hobart, Terre Haute South Remember that this year we will select the 8th team in mid-December from among all previously uninvited teams.
  11. Here is the 4A leaderboard through state. Semi-state automatic bids: Crown Point, Mater Dei, Cathedral. Automatic wildcards: Penn, Brownsburg, Perry Meridian Voting candidates for the 7th team: Center Grove, Carmel, Chesterton Remember that this year we will select the 8th team in mid-December from among all previously uninvited teams.
  12. You're right for that one. Exactly 50%. For some unknown reason, I didn't input the 1/3 scenario where the two champs are on the same side. One third possibility for that, plus 2/3 * 1/4 = 1/6 possibility of the two champs being in opposite halves AND the two runners-up both falling into the quarters not occupied by our concerned champs. One third plus one sixth = one half. I'll adjust numbers above. Slightly below 60% failure rate.
  13. Definition of "bracket correctness": Landing all 4 of our "top 4" in separate quarters. For the 3-1-0-0 scenario: You have a champ, 2nd, and 3rd from one semi-state who will be placed so that the champ is on one half and the 2nd and 3rd are on the other side in separate quarters. The probability then is very simply a 1 in 3 chance that the remaining guy (a champ from another regional) lands in a quarter not occupied by one of the 2nd or 3rd place guys from the 3-man regional. For the 2-1-1-0 scenario: You have 3 champs and one runner-up. Once we place the cham
  14. You're right. I screwed up. There's a 43% chance of the bracket falling "fairly"--not 21%. (What's funny is..I did these same calculations like 10 years ago and thought it was more like 60/40. I figured out now what I did wrong this time.) Sorry. Again, assuming 19 teams per regional, random distribution, and top 4 only beat each other, here are probabilities for "fair" semi-state brackets: 1-1-1-1: 10.2% instance, 100% bracket correctness = 10.2% overall "fairness" contribution 4-0-0-0: 1.2% instance, 100% bracket correctness = 1.2% overall 3-1-0-0: 17.2% in
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