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Nebraska at Penn State Jan 20th - Chad Red vs Nick Lee Round 2

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Obviously much has changed for both wrestlers since their first meeting but looking forward to this match in about a month.  Any thoughts on how this one will go?  

I'm going with Nick Lee in this one.  He's had a great start to this season whereas Chad has suffered a few losses already but I'm sure this match will be close. Both had a great showing at the NCAA's last season so hoping for another epic match!!

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12 hours ago, SWINfan said:

We'll see if it actually happens....   

This definitely feels like a dodging match for some reason, but if it does happen I have Lee by major

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Red’s has had some tough losses the first part of this season.  I’m not sure if it’s the college grind, not stabilizing his weight, needing to adapt to top guys scouting him better, or just in a mental funk, but if anything can get him a little more hyped up it likely a rematch with Lee.  Red likes to prove the doubters wrong and I’m sure he still recalls hearing from several people that he won the first encounter due in part to Lee’s regular season injury layoff.   Maybe he did. Maybe he didn’t.  But getting another shot to prove he’s to better wrestler of these two Indiana titans has to give him a little added motivation.  

I’m sure Lee as well would love to show everyone how far he’s came since that epic HS match by trying to open the score wide up.   He maybe far enough remove from the first match to not dwell on the loss, but when you see Nebraska on upcoming meet schedule you can’t help but have some flashback and want a little redemption.

Based on their recent showing I’d give Lee the advantage.  He’s scoring in bunches against solid competition and the Rec Hall crowd can just gets the PSU wrestled to a whole new gear.  But you know Red will do all he can to keep the match within reach and show he’s still can find a way to edge out Lee.  

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I have spent hours analyzing each wrestler, studying tape, applying machine learning and artificial intelligence on top of ELO and expert scoring methods and have concluded...

 

Nah, none of that. Lee. Just Lee.

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On 12/12/2018 at 8:17 PM, MattM said:

Red’s has had some tough losses the first part of this season.  I’m not sure if it’s the college grind, not stabilizing his weight, needing to adapt to top guys scouting him better, or just in a mental funk, but if anything can get him a little more hyped up it likely a rematch with Lee.  Red likes to prove the doubters wrong and I’m sure he still recalls hearing from several people that he won the first encounter due in part to Lee’s regular season injury layoff.   Maybe he did. Maybe he didn’t.  But getting another shot to prove he’s to better wrestler of these two Indiana titans has to give him a little added motivation.  

I’m sure Lee as well would love to show everyone how far he’s came since that epic HS match by trying to open the score wide up.   He maybe far enough remove from the first match to not dwell on the loss, but when you see Nebraska on upcoming meet schedule you can’t help but have some flashback and want a little redemption.

Based on their recent showing I’d give Lee the advantage.  He’s scoring in bunches against solid competition and the Rec Hall crowd can just gets the PSU wrestled to a whole new gear.  But you know Red will do all he can to keep the match within reach and show he’s still can find a way to edge out Lee.  

To add......  Red has missed a few matches/events early this year.  Not sure how that contributes or was affected by what you mentioned above, but that's the reason for my comment on whether or not the match will happen.  I don't think Chad is scared of Nick.  Not my point.  But if there has been illness, weight issues or something holding him back, who knows what will happen after the new year.  I'd love to see it, and as you stated, a match up with Lee could certainly be the cure for any "blahs" Chad may be experiencing.  ha ha  I would fully expect Chad to show up and be at his best.  

Edited by SWINfan

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Red will sit this one out.  He's lost 4 times already, 3 to unranked guys and one to #20 Storr of Michigan.  Not sure what his deal is.  College grind, weight issues, peaked in HS?  Who knows.  I think Lee cruises to a rather comfortable win if the match happens.

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On 12/17/2018 at 1:00 PM, MD92 said:

Red will sit this one out.  He's lost 4 times already, 3 to unranked guys and one to #20 Storr of Michigan.  Not sure what his deal is.  College grind, weight issues, peaked in HS?  Who knows.  I think Lee cruises to a rather comfortable win if the match happens.

5 times. According to wrestlestats he is 13-5 on the season with 9 of the 13 coming at the Doane Open against D2, NAIA, and 2 year college competition (Northwest Kansas Technical College). I am pretty sure that he only wrestled 6 matches there though as some look like duplicates on wrestlestats. So his real record appears to be 10-5. 

 

With one of the teams at the Doane Open sending two reps in the weight class, 1 of those 6 wins was against the second string at D2, NAIA, etc.... 

 

So against D1 Chad stands at 4-5 on the season. Something just seems off. I hope he does find that magic again.

Edited by wrestlenewbie

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Nebraska's website had him at 9-4 through 12/8.  That was when I checked it yesterday.  It's been updated through 12/16 and is showing him at 10-5 on the year.

Regardless, I'm looking forward to Nick Lee adding to Red's loss column.

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I completely missed the Doane Open as it wasn't on the Nebraska schedule.  Obviously someone felt he needed some work, as only one other starter wrestled there.  

This past weekend, Nebraska wrestled at North Carolina and NC State.  

Red lost to Austin Headlee (NC) 5-1 and beat #15 Jamal Morris (NC State) 3-2.

So 10-5  is correct and it is correct that 6 of those 10 wins are against non-DI competition.  

Looks like he has some work to do to get back to All-American status. He's dropped out of the InterMat rankings.  A win over a ranked guy before the holiday break is a good start.  Unless he  catches another Open before, the Big Ten schedule starts Jan. 6th against Northwestern and Yahya Thomas.  That's followed by Northern Iowa and Josh Alber and Maryland's Michael Doestch.  Alber will definitely be a challenge.  If he's 3-0 going into the match up against Penn St. I would say he is on the right track.  Anything less, the jury is still out.  

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On the flip side....

Nick Lee and Penn State have the Southern Scuffle, Jan 1-2, which includes Va Tech, NC State and Oklahoma State, among others.  Then the Big Ten fires up with Northwestern and Wisconsin before their date with Nebraska.  A match up with Kaid Brock in the Scuffle should make some good wrasslin'

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Neither guy has wrestled a strong schedule to date so hard to draw too many conclusions...wait, never mind, that is what these boards are for.

While Chad has had some hard to explain loses given his past achievements, even his D1 wins have been underwhelming (2-1 over wrestlestats #219 ranked wrestler, 8-5 over #132). That said, recency bias does not allow you to overlook his last match which was a 3-2 decision over #24.

Based on recent form though you would still have to favor Nick. Nick's best win is a pin of #14. On the year he is 9-0 with bonus points in all matches (2 pins, 4 TF, 3 MD). The PSU board also posted some interesting "career" stats. In approximately 1.25 years Nick is 11 all-time at PSU for TF (12), #6 for % of matches with bonus points (69.4%), and tied for #4 for number of MD in a season (12).

They wrestle the matches for a reason, but based on current evidence Nick has to be a big favorite, especially with the match at PSU.

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You can throw records out the window in a match like this. Red will show up and Lee will show up. With that said, Lee wins 9-5.

I hope to see both AA and wrestle each other for a B10 title!

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I really hope to see this match happens and to many it will be a redemption/revenge match for many MD fans. Yes I am a MD fan( and have been a Penn State fan for a very long time) but this match to count as rematch for state finals it would of needed to happen last year. This is now just two wrestlers from the same home state facing off on the next level and it’s one more step in Nicks journey to help him capture a National title. Yes I’m sure there is a little pay back on the way IF it happens. I don’t think it will happen though for whatever reason the coaches come up with or insert a reason. Best of luck to both but I am a Lee fan no matter what.

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Nebraska has Maryland Friday night before the Penn State match Sunday, both on the road.  If Chad is not fighting issues with making weight, I suspect he'll wrestle both.  Sometimes travel can make it difficult if making weight is a challenge.  Maryland should be an easy warm up for Sunday.  

At this point, if there are no health or weight issues with either wrestler, my gut tells me the edge falls to Red right now.  Nick lost his first match of the the year Sunday, in a match where he consistently got to the leg of his opponent, only to be defended and countered into scrambles.  That seems like a Chad Red Special in terms of strategy.  In fact, I could see Chad almost inviting Nick to the single leg.  The questions are:

1. Will Chad be quick enough to counter and keep Nick from finishing (which he is usually VERY good at)?
2.  Can Nick finish those attacks and stay out of scramble situations?
3.  Will Nick adjust to different types of attacks, from the beginning or after a first failed finish?

The fact that Nick lost this weekend and the match is at Penn State makes me want to lean to Nick.  But my gut tells me this time, Chad gets it.  No idea if that feeling will be the same if they meet up again at the Big Ten Championships.

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Valid points SWINfan but I think the big X factor for me are the coaches and wrestling room that Nick has to fall back on.  Nick is a quick learner and I have no doubt he'll learn from this loss and come back stronger.  For me, the body of work by both wrestlers this season up until this match is why I give Nick the edge.  I still feel this will be a great match as I expect both wrestlers will be amped for it but I think too many good things are pointing to Nick so I'm going with him for the win.  

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7 hours ago, tonyb71 said:

Valid points SWINfan but I think the big X factor for me are the coaches and wrestling room that Nick has to fall back on.  Nick is a quick learner and I have no doubt he'll learn from this loss and come back stronger.  For me, the body of work by both wrestlers this season up until this match is why I give Nick the edge.  I still feel this will be a great match as I expect both wrestlers will be amped for it but I think too many good things are pointing to Nick so I'm going with him for the win.  

I agree 100% with everything you are saying. Logically, you are spot on, but my gut tells me Red will step up and give Nick problems.  I'm a fan of both, but would love to see Nick even the score.  

I'd love to see Nick finish in the Top 4 this year, redshirt next year and come back with the chance to win two national titles in '21 & '22.

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There may be one other thing that keeps this match from happening Sunday....  weather.  Happy Valley is right in the track for the heaviest snowfall Saturday night.  As much as 2' (that's feet not inches!) expected in State College beginning Saturday afternoon.  More than likely Nebraska will fly in either Friday night or Saturday morning so it may not matter, but definitely worth watching.  

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Jayruss has a new thread in the high school forum, but I thought I would respect the college forum by posting here. 

 

Jayruss asks if Chad Red will be up for the dual. As SWINfan suggests, the real question is will Chad Red be up to the dual?  Apparently the PA governor has declared a state of emergency due to the coming snow and has closed the interstate system to commercial traffic beginning at noon Saturday. Commercial traffic includes buses. 

 

So depending on the how and when of Nebraska's travel plans, these two athletes may not even get the chance. A real disappointment if it doesn't happen. 

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Yeah, supposedly we’re gonna be getting near 12” inches of snow.  Lots of activities are being cancelled well ahead of time around Pittsburg, I’d imagine the same for State College.  

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I just asked the google machine and it is almost exactly 200 miles from College Park to State College. Just short of a 4 hour drive. If money is not an issue for a D1 wrestling program I imagine they would fly rather than spend 4 hours on a bus. That said, I have no idea what the economics of D1 wrestling are. 

 

In Chicago, where we are expecting about half as much snow tonight, they started pre-cancelling flights last night. Hopefully Nebraska makes it there safely and we vicarious old men get our wish. 

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2 hours ago, wrestlenewbie said:

Jayruss has a new thread in the high school forum, but I thought I would respect the college forum by posting here. 

 

Jayruss asks if Chad Red will be up for the dual. As SWINfan suggests, the real question is will Chad Red be up to the dual?  Apparently the PA governor has declared a state of emergency due to the coming snow and has closed the interstate system to commercial traffic beginning at noon Saturday. Commercial traffic includes buses. 

 

So depending on the how and when of Nebraska's travel plans, these two athletes may not even get the chance. A real disappointment if it doesn't happen. 

Respeck for what @SWINfan has built back here! Attaboy ..and yes I hope it happens but even more important is it on BTN Sunday?

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