Toughest ticket round matchups

[JORVILLE]

3 hours ago, HawkinIndy said:

During semifinals at regionals, a wrestler we had just beaten for the first time in four tries came up to me and said “better win this next one because our 2 pairs up with Perry Meridian champ.”

 

Sure enough, finished second and drew the Perry Meridian champ in our pod, a defending state champ no less. If a wrestler knows the formula beforehand, then the coaches are at fault, right? Where is the integrity in a “blind” draw if that’s the case?

Hence why the draw should be done live and no formula for some secret society to know beforehand. 

[MattM]

3 hours ago, JORVILLE said:

Hence why the draw should be done live and no formula for some secret society to know beforehand. 

It really is even simpler for the IHSAA than some live reveal show and the bracket population after.  With there being 12 formula's it shouldn't be an issue if in fact they were all being used, it was done randomly, and then releases as the semi-state brackets a few days later rather than giving the formula out early (as use to occur).  The problems seems to be the IHSAA is only using some of the 12 possible formulas and the have started to follow a pretty noticeable pattern with the formulas used each year.  Not sure if its due to their laziness or whatever, but it is clearly starting to cause some concern. 

 

I don't blame some coaches for wanting to figure out the draw if the pattern has become that predictable.  The issue here though is since Regionals finish at different times there is a  window available for some to "game the system" of what final round placement would work best for them if they want to end up in one of the best semi-state pod to possibly advance. While a risky strategy without knowing full Regional results, it is still one I have heard some coaches suggest when faced with the alternative of an almost certain "death draw" to make it to state. 

 

No one wants to see the same pattern of "good" or "bad" semi-state draws every year due to certain very strong regionals always feeding in the same weight classes the same way.  And no one wants to even consider the idea of someone "gaming the system" to gain a semi-state bracket advantage.  Both of these are easily solved by the IHSAA take the time to truly randomize all 12 formulas to create the brackets.

 

I haven't done any research, but is this same exact pattern starting to show itself at the state level too?  Or has the IHSAA shown a little more attention to the state brackets with a truly randomized formula?

Edited February 7, 2023 by MattM

[Trinedad]

OK, why not post the matchups before wrestling starts, everyone knows what sectional, regional and SS they will face depending on the place they ear at the previous round. Yes this opens up the possibility of a coach telling a kid to lose a match should they know the results from another event, but I think most are worried about what is in front of them to worry about this, and I would be curious to know the time difference from one tournament finishing that much ahead of the other tournament to make a difference.

[rrschott]

9 minutes ago, Trinedad said:

OK, why not post the matchups before wrestling starts, everyone knows what sectional, regional and SS they will face depending on the place they ear at the previous round. Yes this opens up the possibility of a coach telling a kid to lose a match should they know the results from another event, but I think most are worried about what is in front of them to worry about this, and I would be curious to know the time difference from one tournament finishing that much ahead of the other tournament to make a difference.

I've never really understood that philosophy; why would you lose so you can face a kid who just won his last match?  If the matchings are all 1-4, 2-3, it would seem to me you want to win what's in front of you so you get to face a kid who's just coming off a loss.  But what do I know?

[Trinedad]

1 minute ago, rrschott said:

I've never really understood that philosophy; why would you lose so you can face a kid who just won his last match?  If the matchings are all 1-4, 2-3, it would seem to me you want to win what's in front of you so you get to face a kid who's just coming off a loss.  But what do I know?

just a thought. I always wanted my kid to face the toughest kid.

[rrschott]

1 minute ago, Trinedad said:

just a thought. I always wanted my kid to face the toughest kid.

Ditto, but ideally not in a round where you could go home for the year.  Get the toughest kid when everything is on the line.

[Grenadier2012]

On 2/7/2023 at 11:17 AM, Pug said:

 

 

 

 

Posted February 7, 2021

 

Looks like Mooresville 2 drew in Evansville 1 at 182 again this year. That's at least 9 of the last 11 years that's happened. It wouldn't take a lot to figure this out if the coaching staff had done any research. I doubt that the formula is being leaked--just people assuming what will happen based on prior years.

I'd say the same to sound inconspicuous. Gotta get them off your trail. Good thinkin' brother! 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Grenadier2012

[Trinedad]

34 minutes ago, rrschott said:

Ditto, but ideally not in a round where you could go home for the year.  Get the toughest kid when everything is on the line.

to be the best you have to beat the best. 

[JC123]

On 2/5/2023 at 2:48 PM, 84Coach said:

Hutchison - Pretchel Ticket Round 

Wont even be a match.

[RASSLER4LIFE]

3 minutes ago, JC123 said:

Wont even be a match.

Pretchel is the real deal!! He’s  good in all positions, transitions well, physical. My opinion is he will have to get in his own way. Kid is very talented.

Edited February 9, 2023 by RASSLER4LIFE
Mistype

[BIGCATSontheMAT]

3 hours ago, RASSLER4LIFE said:

Pretchel is the real deal!! He’s  good in all positions, transitions well, physical. My opinion is he will have to get in his own way. Kid is very talented.

I agree. I really believe Pretchel can give Goin a run for his money

[mcnorthcarolina]

1 hour ago, BIGCATSontheMAT said:

I agree. I really believe Pretchel can give Goin a run for his money

Wish the kid luck. He hasn't remotely wrestled the talent level Goin has wrestled. Hope the kid makes a good run but Sam is a completely different animal. Considering Goin Tech him I would say that's not going to happen.

Edited February 9, 2023 by mcnorthcarolina

[Cooper.Wilkins]

Jendreas CP and Tolbert Portage both state caliber guys 

maldonado merrville and demarco of Chesterton both 1-1 against each other 

 

[Jcjcjc]

On 2/6/2023 at 12:56 PM, Clint Gard said:

Then it's not random...IMO.  I'm a math teacher and the combinations and permutations that are possible make it almost impossible to come out with the exact same draws in consecutive years.  Again, I really don't care.  I just thought it was interesting what we were able to find.  What'd I'd really like is the for the IHSAA to be honest and actually make it random. 

How many draws are possible? 

 

Aren't there only 6 in practice?

 

Since all four wrestlers' positions from a given regional are decided by the first regional rep's placement, the possible outcomes of brackets is pretty small. Also, since each placement is separated from others with the same placement, you have two determiners that cannot change, so your 16 variables is cut down dramatically. 

 

If you determine the top of the bracket by drawing one of four regional champs, then you determine the next place by drawing one of three regional fourth placers since you exclude the same regional as the regional champ. There are only 3 possible match-ups for the champs v. fourths.  Then you draw to see which third placer of the 2 remaining regionals, and then you simply know that the second placer is from the remaining regional. Once you know this quarter, the other quarters are set, as they are dependent on separation criteria. So wouldn't the possible given bracket match ups (not bracket placements that simply switch semis as top and bottom) for a given wrestler would be 3*2=6? 

 

If there are only six possibilities, then there will be many cases of the same draw happening, just like there are many instances of rolling a snake eye on the dice a few times in a row when you roll 56 times (14 weights*4 semi states). 

 

 

[Y2CJ41]

1 minute ago, Jcjcjc said:

How many draws are possible? 

 

Aren't there only 6 in practice?

 

Since all four wrestlers' positions from a given regional are decided by the first regional rep's placement, the possible outcomes of brackets is pretty small. Also, since each placement is separated from others with the same placement, you have two determiners that cannot change, so your 16 variables is cut down dramatically. 

 

If you determine the top of the bracket by drawing one of four regional champs, then you determine the next place by drawing one of three regional fourth placers since you exclude the same regional as the regional champ. There are only 3 possible match-ups for the champs v. fourths.  Then you draw to see which third placer of the 2 remaining regionals, and then you simply know that the second placer is from the remaining regional. Once you know this quarter, the other quarters are set, as they are dependent on separation criteria. So wouldn't the possible given bracket match ups (not bracket placements that simply switch semis as top and bottom) for a given wrestler would be 3*2=6? 

 

If there are only six possibilities, then there will be many cases of the same draw happening, just like there are many instances of rolling a snake eye on the dice a few times in a row when you roll 56 times (14 weights*4 semi states). 

 

 

There are 12 different draw possibilities for the whole bracket. The IHSAA uses 7 of them and uses them twice based on the last several years.

 

Where this gets interesting is specific match-ups (1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3, 1 vs 2) are not evenly spread out. So regional match-ups are repeated 6 times against regional A, 4 times against regional B, and 4 times against regional C. For instance the Peru regional runner-up will have a #1 from  Jay County 6 times and Carroll/Goshen 4 times.

 

The best fix for this is to use the 12 formulas once then add in two repeaters and throw them out as the years go on until you use up all of them.

[Jcjcjc]

2 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

There are 12 different draw possibilities for the whole bracket. The IHSAA uses 7 of them and uses them twice based on the last several years.

 

Where this gets interesting is specific match-ups (1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3, 1 vs 2) are not evenly spread out. So regional match-ups are repeated 6 times against regional A, 4 times against regional B, and 4 times against regional C. For instance the Peru regional runner-up will have a #1 from  Jay County 6 times and Carroll/Goshen 4 times.

 

The best fix for this is to use the 12 formulas once then add in two repeaters and throw them out as the years go on until you use up all of them.

 

When you say there are 12, and I say there are 6, are we both right, as half of your 12 are the same as another, just with the top half and bottom half flipped (meaning the match-ups and advancement are all the same)? 

[Y2CJ41]

4 minutes ago, Jcjcjc said:

 

When you say there are 12, and I say there are 6, are we both right, as half of your 12 are the same as another, just with the top half and bottom half flipped (meaning the match-ups and advancement are all the same)? 

Must be some weird Valpo/Purdue math. There are six different combinations of quarter brackets, but overall there are 12 different FULL bracket combinations.

 

They top half of the bracket has 6 different combinations that are possible. However, within each format in the top bracket the bottom has two different options as you can flip the 2 vs. 3 matches. For those that are possibly Valpo graduates 6 x 2 is 12.

 

Here are the options kinda mushed, but separated by quarter bracket

A1B4C3D2  B1A4D3C2  C1D4A3B2  D1C4B3A2  
A1B4C3D2  B1A4D3C2  C1D4B3A2  D1C4A3B2  
A1B4D3C2  B1A4C3D2  C1D4A3B2  D1C4B3A2  
A1B4D3C2  B1A4C3D2  C1D4B3A2  D1C4A3B2  
A1C4B3D2  C1A4D3B2  B1D4A3C2  D1B4C3A2  
A1C4B3D2  C1A4D3B2  B1D4C3A2  D1B4A3C2  
A1C4D3B2  C1A4B3D2  B1D4A3C2  D1B4C3A2  
A1C4D3B2  C1A4B3D2  B1D4C3A2  D1B4A3C2  
A1D4B3C2  D1A4C3B2  B1C4A3D2  C1B4D3A2  
A1D4B3C2  D1A4C3B2  B1C4D3A2  C1B4A3D2  
A1D4C3B2  D1A4B3C2  B1C4A3D2  C1B4D3A2  
A1D4C3B2  D1A4B3C2  B1C4D3A2  C1B4A3D2  

[Jcjcjc]

2 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Must be some weird Valpo/Purdue math. There are six different combinations of quarter brackets, but overall there are 12 different FULL bracket combinations.

 

They top half of the bracket has 6 different combinations that are possible. However, within each format in the top bracket the bottom has two different options as you can flip the 2 vs. 3 matches. For those that are possibly Valpo graduates 6 x 2 is 12.

 

Here are the options kinda mushed, but separated by quarter bracket

A1B4C3D2  B1A4D3C2  C1D4A3B2  D1C4B3A2  
A1B4C3D2  B1A4D3C2  C1D4B3A2  D1C4A3B2  
A1B4D3C2  B1A4C3D2  C1D4A3B2  D1C4B3A2  
A1B4D3C2  B1A4C3D2  C1D4B3A2  D1C4A3B2  
A1C4B3D2  C1A4D3B2  B1D4A3C2  D1B4C3A2  
A1C4B3D2  C1A4D3B2  B1D4C3A2  D1B4A3C2  
A1C4D3B2  C1A4B3D2  B1D4A3C2  D1B4C3A2  
A1C4D3B2  C1A4B3D2  B1D4C3A2  D1B4A3C2  
A1D4B3C2  D1A4C3B2  B1C4A3D2  C1B4D3A2  
A1D4B3C2  D1A4C3B2  B1C4D3A2  C1B4A3D2  
A1D4C3B2  D1A4B3C2  B1C4A3D2  C1B4D3A2  
A1D4C3B2  D1A4B3C2  B1C4D3A2  C1B4A3D2  

 

 

 

Makes sense.

The other six I wasn't accounting for would theoretically only affect the other side of the bracket from the perspective of "my" wrestler. I hope that reinvigorates your appreciation for Valpo and Purdue math? 

[XCard]

[Silence Dogood]

14 minutes ago, Jcjcjc said:

 

 

 

Makes sense.

The other six I wasn't accounting for would theoretically only affect the other side of the bracket from the perspective of "my" wrestler. I hope that reinvigorates your appreciation for Valpo and Purdue math? 

Valpo/Purdue math sounds selfish. 

[Y2CJ41]

22 minutes ago, Jcjcjc said:

 

 

 

Makes sense.

The other six I wasn't accounting for would theoretically only affect the other side of the bracket from the perspective of "my" wrestler. I hope that reinvigorates your appreciation for Valpo and Purdue math? 

Uhhh, appreciation is a unique word to use, but sure.

[84Coach]

14 hours ago, JC123 said:

Wont even be a match.

Feel free to sleep on that ticket round match!

[McWrastlePants]

I thought this forum was about tough semi state match ups like Ashton Jackson v Daniel Mata, not some mathematical ted talk

[JC123]

53 minutes ago, 84Coach said:

Feel free to sleep on that ticket round match!

Both are good wrestlers but I’ve seen Hutchinson lose to Kemper with Kemper winning pretty easily and Kemper cannot even get close to taking Pretchel down. Just my opinion. I believe he will major Hutchinson at least

[84Coach]

2 minutes ago, JC123 said:

Both are good wrestlers but I’ve seen Hutchinson lose to Kemper with Kemper winning pretty easily and Kemper cannot even get close to taking Pretchel down. Just my opinion. I believe he will major Hutchinson at least

At the end of the day our opinions dont matter. These boys will scrap it out on Sat.

 

Mid season losses and commons do not mean much to me. Last year Hutchison lost 10-2 early season to Neuman and took it to SV in the ticket round later in the year. 

 

Its all who is ready and shows up on Sat and matchups are certainly a big deal.

 

Goof luck to all involved.