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Jayruss

Castle rough day

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5  made it to the ticket round.  

 

Farmer and Casebolt were the only two I had punching their ticket.  Both had tough matches and got "upset".  I don't think it was as bad as it looks for them.

 

8 of their losses were to state placers/qualifiers

 

 

106 - Devon Casebolt (30-3) place is unknown and scored 0.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Logan Boe (Danville) 33-9 won by fall over Devon Casebolt (Castle) 30-3 (Fall 3:57)

113 - Brooks Hartz (28-11) place is unknown and scored 0.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Asa Garcia (Avon) 38-0 won by major decision over Brooks Hartz (Castle) 28-11 (MD 13-2)

120 - Neal Bealmear (29-6) place is unknown and scored 2.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Neal Bealmear (Castle) 29-6 won by decision over Keagan Koenig (Terre Haute South) 29-9 (Dec 5-0)
    Quarterfinal - Ty Mills (Brownsburg) 34-2 won by major decision over Neal Bealmear (Castle) 29-6 (MD 13-0)

126 - Carson Willis (38-4) place is unknown and scored 3.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Carson Willis (Castle) 38-4 won by major decision over Zach Lane (Edgewood) 22-17 (MD 9-1)
    Quarterfinal - Graham Rooks (Columbus East) 42-0 won by major decision over Carson Willis (Castle) 38-4 (MD 9-1)

132 - Matt Kincaid (18-9) place is unknown and scored 0.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Noah Franklin (New Washington) 40-4 won by fall over Matt Kincaid (Castle) 18-9 (Fall 1:24)

138 - Robert Deters (33-10) place is unknown and scored 2.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Robert Deters (Castle) 33-10 won by decision over Daniel Bradburn (Edgewood) 24-15 (Dec 4-3)
    Quarterfinal - Nathan Conley (Avon) 33-6 won by decision over Robert Deters (Castle) 33-10 (Dec 8-5)

145 - Jacob Freeman (26-14) place is unknown and scored 0.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Austin Heckman (Edgewood) 29-12 won by decision over Jacob Freeman (Castle) 26-14 (Dec 9-6)

152 - Clay McNutt (29-12) place is unknown and scored 0.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Trace Thomas (Greencastle) 37-6 won by decision over Clay McNutt (Castle) 29-12 (Dec 3-2)

160 - Jacob Farmer (34-8) place is unknown and scored 2.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Jacob Farmer (Castle) 34-8 won by decision over Josiah Freeman (Jeffersonville) 29-21 (Dec 4-0)
    Quarterfinal - Jaylen Adkins (Decatur Central) 28-8 won by decision over Jacob Farmer (Castle) 34-8 (Dec 4-3)

170 - Carson Mohler (27-12) place is unknown and scored 0.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Jonah Hays (Center Grove) 29-11 won by decision over Carson Mohler (Castle) 27-12 (Dec 3-2)

182 - Will Nunn (31-8) place is unknown and scored 0.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Brigham Kleinhenz (Columbus North) 22-6 won by decision over Will Nunn (Castle) 31-8 (Dec 18-13)

195 - Will Rolley (29-10) place is unknown and scored 0.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Grant Goforth (Indian Creek) 33-6 won by decision over Will Rolley (Castle) 29-10 (Dec 3-1)

220 - Brennan Norman (31-12) place is unknown and scored 4.00 team points.
    Champ. Round 1 - Brennan Norman (Castle) 31-12 won by fall over Dalton Pinaire (Eastern (Pekin)) 27-11 (Fall 0:42)
    Quarterfinal - Clayton Scroggs (Martinsville) 31-4 won by fall over Brennan Norman (Castle) 31-12 (Fall 3:37)

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Avon got 5 out of 9 through

Brownsburg 8 of 12

Bl. South 1 of 10

Edgewood 1 of 10

Col. East 5 of 8

Fl. Central 2 of 9

Jeffersonville 0 of 5

Jen. County 2 of 6

Mater Dei 5 of 12

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Somebody on another thread was railing on MD, but you can see they look pretty shiny compared to other good teams. Only 1 in 4 at semi-state advance. Getting 5 of 12 is a rate 67% better than average.

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Somebody on another thread was railing on MD, but you can see they look pretty shiny compared to other good teams. Only 1 in 4 at semi-state advance. Getting 5 of 12 is a rate 67% better than average.

Not trying to rail on anyone & 5 of 12 is nothing to be ashamed of. But 5 of 12 is not 67%, it is approximately 42%.

 

Furthermore, it is not what MD is used to doing.

Edited by SIACfan

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SIACfan I took it to means compares to the average chance of advancing wrestlers to state from the starting field at Semi-State. He was saying by getting 5 though that would be 67% better than the odds would say should happen for a team in general. Not the actual % of the 12 on the MD team that advanced. I didn't crunch the numbers to verify, but that's what I took his variables to be.

Edited by MattM

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SIACfan I took it to means compares to the average chance of advancing wrestlers to state from the starting field at Semi-State. He was saying by getting 5 though that would be 67% better than the odds would say should happen for a team in general. Not the actual % of the 12 on the MD team that advanced.

Normal first round win % at semi-state = 50%

EMD first round win % = 67%, which is a 33% better rate than 50%

Normal advancement rate from semi-state = 25%

EMD advancement rate = 42%, which is a 67% better rate than 25%

In other words, in a loaded semi-state, their kids' quality still clearly exceeded other teams' semi-state & state level kids' quality this weekend.

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Normal first round win % at semi-state = 50%

EMD first round win % = 67%, which is a 33% better rate than 50%

Normal advancement rate from semi-state = 25%

EMD advancement rate = 42%, which is a 67% better rate than 25%

In other words, in a loaded semi-state, their kids' quality still clearly exceeded other teams' semi-state & state level kids' quality this weekend.

 

 

Never question Maligned's probability or statistics acumen!

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Normal first round win % at semi-state = 50%

EMD first round win % = 67%, which is a 33% better rate than 50%

Normal advancement rate from semi-state = 25%

EMD advancement rate = 42%, which is a 67% better rate than 25%

In other words, in a loaded semi-state, their kids' quality still clearly exceeded other teams' semi-state & state level kids' quality this weekend.

OK - I understand your stats now, but your conclusion is a bit subjective. While it is technically true that only 1 in 4 advance, when 8 of 12 participants go into the SS as a regional champ (thus a #1 seed) then the success rate should be higher than the pure 25%.

 

I am not trying to knock MD. I have nothing but complete & utter respect for their program, 8 regional champs speaks to their excellence.

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I'd say Mater Dei's regional champs that didn't advance are for good reasons- the people who beat them were top notch quality

 

Dickens lost to mosconi- a two time state qualifier

Happe lost to wathen- a two time state qualifier

Boots lost to Lee- a two time state qualifier

 

Their other regional champs made it to state. I would say that's not bad

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I agree MD did a good job. I am certainly not trying to devalue their performance at all.

 

Just saying that to compare their advancement rate to the technical 25% advancement rate is subjective at best & actually misleading given the circumstances.

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Dickens got pinned fairly quickly.  I'd have liked to see them go a full 6 minutes.  Not saying Dickens would have beaten him, was just hoping for a better match.  Very tough draw for the freshman, but I don't think there was an easy draw at 120 at this semi-state.

 

I thought Happe could have won his match.  Very evenly matched IMO.

 

I thought it was a tough draw for Boots.  Lee may have been a little under the radar coming in.  Very good wrestler.

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I agree MD did a good job. I am certainly not trying to devalue their performance at all.

 

Just saying that to compare their advancement rate to the technical 25% advancement rate is subjective at best & actually misleading given the circumstances.

Fair enough

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Brought 13 to semi-state and 0 advance, has to be unprecedented. Still the second best program in the south

Things might not have went as planned but I think it would be safe to say all the kids worked hard all season and some all year. This post states the obvious and poor taste to bash these kids.

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