naco228 Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 idk how much better Lovejoy got this year didnt he take 8th last year? anyways, since Napules doesnt have Quiroga on his side, im thinking he could make the finals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Champion Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 Top Half of 119 is insane.... could go to anybody State Runner up Kenny SQ Petrov Place winner Keiffer 3x placer Brooks State Champ Raley State Champ Eppert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiralride1 Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 Raley vs. Kenney quarterfinal too What about Kieffer vs Raley rd 1? Kieffer beat Johns who beat Raley.......One of these STUDS is odd man out! naco, Guess you have Atwood, returning state placer who beat Wedding last year, placing 5th? Tough cookies for Atwood & Duckworth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midget5589 Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 graber appears to have gotten the best draw at 189, doesnt have to see shrewsbury, hodges, abbott, johnson-jones, stevenson or scott until the finals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrestlingGURU189 Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 I think Leach will beat Dalton and Leach and Graber will be a good match... 3 of Leach's losses are to Stevenson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loki27 Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 Raley vs Kieffer first round. Ouch, thats a bad draw for one of them. Johns beat raley and kieffer beat Johns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royboy74 Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 Its interesting that the Fort Wayne semi-state matches up with the Merrillville semi-state 6 times in the first round. Shouldn't it be at most 5 times? It has been like this for the past six years also. I don't see how you think that there is a maximum number of times 2 semi-states could match up. On average there is a 1/3 chance that any SS would match up against a particular other semi-state so if you look at that match up over a long enough time period all that means is that the average should come out to 4.67 times (14*1/3). In any given year there is a chance that FW SS could match up against Merillville SS in every weight class (all 14 of them). It is not very likely, but it is possible. Kind of like there is a chance of flipping a coin 14 times and getting all heads (except worse because this would be a 3-sided coin). I guess I could see your frustration though if it has happened like that 6 years in a row, but I have to believe that it will average out if you stick around long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smooth34 Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 idk how much better Lovejoy got this year didnt he take 8th last year? anyways, since Napules doesnt have Quiroga on his side, im thinking he could make the finals Lovejoy is a stud. I think he will make the finals against Tsirtsis/Quiroga winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solid51bs Posted February 15, 2009 Share Posted February 15, 2009 I believe he will strugle against both Napules and even Grey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naco228 Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 Raley vs. Kenney quarterfinal too What about Kieffer vs Raley rd 1? Kieffer beat Johns who beat Raley.......One of these STUDS is odd man out! naco, Guess you have Atwood, returning state placer who beat Wedding last year, placing 5th? Tough cookies for Atwood & Duckworth hey, someone's gotta win right? im willing the bet Duckworth will make it and for ALL weight classes, many wrestlers are going to place lower than what they did last year Kieffer/Raley wont qualify McGinley/Hall wont qualify and many excellect wrestlers will fall in the quarters, who argueably should at least make it to semis IMO, this year is going to be a perfect example of why there should be a second wrestle back round at state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted February 16, 2009 Author Share Posted February 16, 2009 Its interesting that the Fort Wayne semi-state matches up with the Merrillville semi-state 6 times in the first round. Shouldn't it be at most 5 times? It has been like this for the past six years also. I don't see how you think that there is a maximum number of times 2 semi-states could match up. On average there is a 1/3 chance that any SS would match up against a particular other semi-state so if you look at that match up over a long enough time period all that means is that the average should come out to 4.67 times (14*1/3). In any given year there is a chance that FW SS could match up against Merillville SS in every weight class (all 14 of them). It is not very likely, but it is possible. Kind of like there is a chance of flipping a coin 14 times and getting all heads (except worse because this would be a 3-sided coin). I guess I could see your frustration though if it has happened like that 6 years in a row, but I have to believe that it will average out if you stick around long enough. Each semi-state should see two of the other SS's 5 times, and one 4 times. The past six years, for Fort Wayne it has been 6 times vs. Merrillville and 4 times vs. Evansvill and New Castle. The most times you should see a respective semi-state in the first round should be five times. The draw isn't so random if the same match-ups occur year after year. Also, if you want to look at it even further, the 189lb bracket at semi-state has been exactly the same the past four years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tangarrray Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 Y2, I know we have the "official" Ihsaa brackets on here, but how bout doing some authentic INDIANAMAT.COM brackets for state including the wrestlers ranking along with the INDIANAMAT.COM logo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boot Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 Its interesting that the Fort Wayne semi-state matches up with the Merrillville semi-state 6 times in the first round. Shouldn't it be at most 5 times? It has been like this for the past six years also. I don't see how you think that there is a maximum number of times 2 semi-states could match up. On average there is a 1/3 chance that any SS would match up against a particular other semi-state so if you look at that match up over a long enough time period all that means is that the average should come out to 4.67 times (14*1/3). In any given year there is a chance that FW SS could match up against Merillville SS in every weight class (all 14 of them). It is not very likely, but it is possible. Kind of like there is a chance of flipping a coin 14 times and getting all heads (except worse because this would be a 3-sided coin). I guess I could see your frustration though if it has happened like that 6 years in a row, but I have to believe that it will average out if you stick around long enough. Each semi-state should see two of the other SS's 5 times, and one 4 times. The past six years, for Fort Wayne it has been 6 times vs. Merrillville and 4 times vs. Evansvill and New Castle. The most times you should see a respective semi-state in the first round should be five times. The draw isn't so random if the same match-ups occur year after year. Also, if you want to look at it even further, the 189lb bracket at semi-state has been exactly the same the past four years. Who does this "random" draw? I'm originally from the Merrillville SS and it seems like we saw the same schools a lot first round, I would seriously question the "random" part of the draws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clive2246 Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 I agree. It seems like they are the pretty much the same each year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royboy74 Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 Its interesting that the Fort Wayne semi-state matches up with the Merrillville semi-state 6 times in the first round. Shouldn't it be at most 5 times? It has been like this for the past six years also. I don't see how you think that there is a maximum number of times 2 semi-states could match up. On average there is a 1/3 chance that any SS would match up against a particular other semi-state so if you look at that match up over a long enough time period all that means is that the average should come out to 4.67 times (14*1/3). In any given year there is a chance that FW SS could match up against Merillville SS in every weight class (all 14 of them). It is not very likely, but it is possible. Kind of like there is a chance of flipping a coin 14 times and getting all heads (except worse because this would be a 3-sided coin). I guess I could see your frustration though if it has happened like that 6 years in a row, but I have to believe that it will average out if you stick around long enough. Each semi-state should see two of the other SS's 5 times, and one 4 times. The past six years, for Fort Wayne it has been 6 times vs. Merrillville and 4 times vs. Evansvill and New Castle. The most times you should see a respective semi-state in the first round should be five times. The draw isn't so random if the same match-ups occur year after year. Also, if you want to look at it even further, the 189lb bracket at semi-state has been exactly the same the past four years. Y2, The odds that any one weight class would be drawn up the same way 4 years in a row is 1/81. There are only 3 different unique ways they can draw each bracket. Considering that there are 14 brackets to draw up every year means that there is a 14/81= 17 % likelihood that this might happen in one weight class. Certainly not that unlikely that you should question the randomness. I guess that the concept of random draw doesn't make sense to alot of people. It's statistics. Your logic is only the most likely outcome of a random draw. It is not the only outcome. If they were to stop allowing Merrillville semi-state to go against Fort Wayne just because the bracket already came up that way 5 times, the draw would cease to be random. In a true random draw there is a chance that the Fort Wayne Semistate could go against the Merrillville semi-state in all 14 weight classes. There is also a possibility that Fort Wayne semi-state and Merrillville semi-state go against each other in none of the 14 weight classes. Statistics predicts that over time the results of the random draw should average out to the most likely outcome that you feel should happen each year. I hope this explanation helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhsfan09 Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 How about the fact that Hawkins vs Nelson in semis and Hawkins vs Mullens in Quarters.. top 3 112 lbers in the bottom half! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indysportsfan Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 I know those are the top 3 per the rankings, but Mullins has been defeated by Keiffer twice in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FULLDRAW Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 Raley vs. Kenney quarterfinal too i think you got it wrong y2 this will be keiffer vs. kenny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
royboy74 Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 OK Y2, I broke it down for you assuming a true random draw. Let's just stick with the example of Fortwayne Semi-state vs Merrillville semi-state. In a true random draw the odds are as follows. I calculated the odds of each occurence: # of 1st round matches | probability ------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 | 0.34 % 1 | 2.40 % 2 | 7.79 % 3 | 15.59 % 4 | 21.43 % 5 | 21.43 % 6 | 16.07 % 7 | 9.18 % 8 | 4.02 % 9 | 1.34 % 10 | 0.33 % 11 | 0.061 % 12 | 0.0076 % 13 | 0.00059 % 14 | 0.000021% That's all I have to say about this. It is very possible to match up with a given semi-state 6 or 7 times using a random draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted February 16, 2009 Author Share Posted February 16, 2009 Is it possible to be like that for 6 straight years? Shouldn't this "random" draw be different EVERY year? The last time Fort Wayne did not see Merrillville 6 times was in 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BB145 Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 OK Y2, I broke it down for you assuming a true random draw. Let's just stick with the example of Fortwayne Semi-state vs Merrillville semi-state. In a true random draw the odds are as follows. I calculated the odds of each occurence: # of 1st round matches | probability ------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 | 0.34 % 1 | 2.40 % 2 | 7.79 % 3 | 15.59 % 4 | 21.43 % 5 | 21.43 % 6 | 16.07 % 7 | 9.18 % 8 | 4.02 % 9 | 1.34 % 10 | 0.33 % 11 | 0.061 % 12 | 0.0076 % 13 | 0.00059 % 14 | 0.000021% That's all I have to say about this. It is very possible to match up with a given semi-state 6 or 7 times using a random draw. Wow thats pretty accurate to a graph I have. But its my odds of pulling a phone number for how many beers Ive had ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinl Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 idk how much better Lovejoy got this year didnt he take 8th last year? Not saying Lovejoy is as good as Napules, Napules has wrestled much tougher competition this year. But Lovejoy was 7th not 8th. Napules faced Brandon Harvey first match on Saturday an beat him 7-6 then lost the next two in the championship bracket. Lovejoy faced Quiroga in the first match Saturday and got pinned with 5 seconds left then beat Brandon Harvey in the final match 5-1 for 7th. Both went 1-2 on Saturday and both beat the same wrestler, but due to the draw thier final placement was significantly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammer Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 idk how much better Lovejoy got this year didnt he take 8th last year? Not saying Lovejoy is as good as Napules, Napules has wrestled much tougher competition this year. But Lovejoy was 7th not 8th. Napules faced Brandon Harvey first match on Saturday an beat him 7-6 then lost the next two in the championship bracket. Lovejoy faced Quiroga in the first match Saturday and got pinned with 5 seconds left then beat Brandon Harvey in the final match 5-1 for 7th. Both went 1-2 on Saturday and both beat the same wrestler, but due to the draw thier final placement was significantly different. Napules sees better competition during the season. Lovejoy sees better competition in the off-season. Kevinl is correct in that both had very similar performances at state last year. Should be a great match, if it takes place in the quarters. I believe they are on the same level, wrestlingwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
base Posted February 16, 2009 Share Posted February 16, 2009 Y2, I know we have the "official" Ihsaa brackets on here, but how bout doing some authentic INDIANAMAT.COM brackets for state including the wrestlers ranking along with the INDIANAMAT.COM logo? Y2 thank you for the brackets. One more request, if it is at all possible. Is there anyway you can make some small note next to each wrestler showing what SS they came from and what place they finished there. For example Tsirtsis (M1) or Quiroga (N1) or Jones (E4). I would really like to be able to see from the brackets what semistate they came from, and what place they finished. Thank you, if you don't have time to do this or any room for it, it's understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted February 16, 2009 Author Share Posted February 16, 2009 Does this look better? http://indianamat.com/brackets/2009/2009statefinals.pdf Anything else, mother's maiden names, favorite color, birthdate, social security numbers, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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