Semi-State Draws

[SIACfan]

15 hours ago, Thor said:

Well look at that, Jay County 2 draws Carroll 1 at 175

 

Yes, Jay County-2 drew Carrol-1 at 4 weights. But Jay County-2 drew Peru-1 & Goshen-1 at 5 weights each. So it was pretty well distributed.

 

Now I don't know how often certain weight classes draw other regionals, but there are only 3 possibilities so a certain weight drawing the same regional 2, 3 or even 4 years in a row is not going to be that uncommon.

 

[Thor]

21 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

Yes, Jay County-2 drew Carrol-1 at 4 weights. But Jay County-2 drew Peru-1 & Goshen-1 at 5 weights each. So it was pretty well distributed.

 

Now I don't know how often certain weight classes draw other regionals, but there are only 3 possibilities so a certain weight drawing the same regional 2, 3 or even 4 years in a row is not going to be that uncommon.

 

Again, I don't really care of the evenness, or Jay County getting good draws at other weights. It's just an observation about one weight at Fort Wayne in particular. Cause it's not 2,3,4 years in a row, it's now 10 out of 11 for that draw. Not saying anything about it's not random, or that they don't change anything, just maybe the draw button for this weight may be stuck. 

[Y2CJ41]

26 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

Yes, Jay County-2 drew Carrol-1 at 4 weights. But Jay County-2 drew Peru-1 & Goshen-1 at 5 weights each. So it was pretty well distributed.

 

Now I don't know how often certain weight classes draw other regionals, but there are only 3 possibilities so a certain weight drawing the same regional 2, 3 or even 4 years in a row is not going to be that uncommon.

 

Jay County 2's vs. 1's breakdown

Carroll- 4
Goshen- 4

Peru- 6

[SIACfan]

4 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Jay County 2's vs. 1's breakdown

Carroll- 4
Goshen- 4

Peru- 6

 

I stand corrected. Nice catch.

[SIACfan]

10 minutes ago, Thor said:

 it's now 10 out of 11 for that draw.

 

That is surprising but not completely improbable given it is a 1 in 3 chance of happening each year.

 

[Y2CJ41]

10 minutes ago, Thor said:

Again, I don't really care of the evenness, or Jay County getting good draws at other weights. It's just an observation about one weight at Fort Wayne in particular. Cause it's not 2,3,4 years in a row, it's now 10 out of 11 for that draw. Not saying anything about it's not random, or that they don't change anything, just maybe the draw button for this weight may be stuck. 

Again like others you are focusing on ONE match-up and there is a likelihood of different brackets just with some common match-ups. In a perfect world you have a 1 out of 3 chance of "predicting" this one match-up in the bracket. Of the 12 bracket possibilities the JC #2 will hit the Carroll #1 4 times with each bracket having slightly different match-ups in other areas.

 

This weight you are talking about has alternated mainly two different brackets over the years and it just so happens both have C2 vs. A1 in the quarters in there. The main difference is who the first round match is against. 

[Y2CJ41]

Here are the breakdowns by which bracket set is being used since 2006, previously I did have 2020 incorrect.

 

		Weight	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006
106	106	1	9	4	1	12	9	12	4	8	12	1	8	9	1	8	9	5	4	11	8
113	113	2	8	8	12	6	12	6	1	7	6	12	9	12	8	1	8	4	3	8	2
120	120	3	1	12	6	8	1	8	1	4	8	6	6	1	12	8	1	12	5	9	1
126	126	4	12	9	8	1	4	1	4	1	1	8	7	4	4	12	8	8	1	1	11
132	132	5	8	6	4	7	8	7	8	9	7	9	4	8	6	4	12	1	10	5	5
138	138	6	12	4	9	9	9	9	7	4	9	7	7	9	9	5	4	8	8	12	8
145	144	7	7	6	6	4	6	4	6	1	4	4	6	6	9	9	5	9	5	8	8
152	150	8	1	7	7	1	7	1	8	6	1	7	8	7	6	9	4	12	12	10	3
160	157	9	4	1	9	12	4	12	6	12	12	9	12	4	7	8	9	1	8	5	12
170	165	10	6	7	4	8	7	8	12	6	8	6	1	7	7	5	8	8	2	2	5
182	175	11	4	9	7	4	6	4	9	9	4	4	9	6	1	8	5	5	11	8	10
195	190	12	9	8	12	7	8	7	12	7	7	1	12	8	12	1	8	8	5	5	5
220	215	13	6	1	8	9	12	9	9	12	9	12	1	12	4	12	1	9	9	3	4
285	285	14	7	12	1	6	1	6	7	8	6	8	4	1	8	4	12	4	8	4	9

 

If you want to translate here are the corresponding brackets in an ugly format

Bracket	Formula
1	A1B4C3D2B1A4D3C2C1D4A3B2D1C4B3A2
2	A1B4C3D2B1A4D3C2C1D4B3A2D1C4A3B2
3	A1B4D3C2B1A4C3D2C1D4A3B2D1C4B3A2
4	A1B4D3C2B1A4C3D2C1D4B3A2D1C4A3B2
5	A1C4B3D2C1A4D3B2B1D4A3C2D1B4C3A2
6	A1C4B3D2C1A4D3B2B1D4C3A2D1B4A3C2
7	A1C4D3B2C1A4B3D2B1D4A3C2D1B4C3A2
8	A1C4D3B2C1A4B3D2B1D4C3A2D1B4A3C2
9	A1D4B3C2D1A4C3B2B1C4A3D2C1B4D3A2
10	A1D4B3C2D1A4C3B2B1C4D3A2C1B4A3D2
11	A1D4C3B2D1A4B3C2B1C4A3D2C1B4D3A2
12	A1D4C3B2D1A4B3C2B1C4D3A2C1B4A3D2

[tangarrray]

Just an observation but there always seems to be a lot of whining about “bad” draws. This system has been in place for years and years so maybe instead of whining and complaining about bad draws your kid got, you should create your “good” draw by winning the regional. Winning the regional will create a better odds of advancing, losing will put you at the mercy of the draw we all know this. This is wrestling so quit whining already and wrestle who’s on the line across from you.  In a perfect world we would have wrestle backs but until then, “Just Win”!

[SIACfan]

So if what Y2 posted is accurate, then the Jay County-2 got matched against the Carrol-1 at 182/175 9 of the last 11 years. A little surprising but it only happened once in 8 years immediately prior to that.

 

So it happened 10 of the last 19 years or 52.6% of the time over that span. When theoretically it should happen 33.3% of the time. A little lopsided but not extremely so when looking at the last 19 years.

[AJ]

[ontherise219]

9 minutes ago, tangarrray said:

Just an observation but there always seems to be a lot of whining about “bad” draws. This system has been in place for years and years so maybe instead of whining and complaining about bad draws your kid got, you should create your “good” draw by winning the regional. Winning the regional will create a better odds of advancing, losing will put you at the mercy of the draw we all know this. This is wrestling so quit whining already and wrestle who’s on the line across from you.  In a perfect world we would have wrestle backs but until then, “Just Win”!

[bwoodjc89]

The same formula is used at all Semi-States but there only people complaining about how the formula works at one semi-state. Do I have this right?

[Bulldog89]

On 2/1/2024 at 12:24 PM, TripleB said:

Spoke w/ some Evansville peeps yesterday and Evansville is buzzing. The anticipation is that there will be a crazy amount of walk ups. Wrestling is massive in Evansville and the Southwest part of the state. Evansville is 2 hrs and 45 min from Indy, Mt Vernon is over 3 hours, i'm guessing most don't make that drive unless there's a personal connection to state. 

 

I think it's not crazy to say 2-3k fans in that area that don't normally make the the drive will attend this year. 

 

23 minutes ago, ontherise219 said:

Just WIN BABY WIN!!

 

 

 

Per Snoop Dogg:  … Back to back, set a track (yeah), get the lick, hit it back
If the trick jump the track, - want my money back (what, what, what, what?)
Time and time again while I'm sippin' on this gin
Al Davis said it best, "Just win, baby, win"

 

Edited February 5 by Bulldog89

[TeamGarcia]

Thanks @Y2CJ41 for the Double Top Secret Super Semi State Formula. I NOW HAVE THE POWER ! To give every poster on Indianamat RINGWORM with the snap of finger . Do I have fingers ? Maybe a click of feet . idk.
Anyways My latest plan consists of Super Secret Formulas of next year Semi State and take over Indianamat . I WILL BEAT YOU TO IT ! 
 

Sincerely Yours Truly Plankton  

Edited February 5 by TeamGarcia