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maligned

Team State Bid Acceptance List

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Below is the progress of teams accepting Team State bids for 2018-19. Once these lists are finalized, teams eligible for the two vote-in wildcards per class will receive paperwork to tell the voters more about incoming and JV talent and other positives about their team for next year. Voting will take place in April over the Coaches' Clinic weekend.

Teams in bold have accepted. (Chesterton declined and are no longer listed.) Others here have not announced their decisions:

3A 2A 1A
Avon Bellmont
Adams Central
Brownsburg Edgewood Attica
Columbus East Jimtown Central Noble
Indianapolis Cathedral Leo
Eastern (Greentown)
Mater Dei North Montgomery Eastside
Northridge South Dearborn Frankton

Penn

Wawasee North Posey
Perry Meridian West Vigo Prairie Heights
Portage Western Shenandoah
Roncalli Yorktown

Wabash

Edited by maligned

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So in 3A, 2 Region teams, 2 <Pound Sign>HendricksCountySmellsFunny teams, 3 Marion County teams, 2 southern Indiana teams, and Nortridge.

The Ft.Wayne semi-state is very well represented in 2A!  In total, I think 3 teams from southern Indiana and the rest north.

I was a tad surprised there is only 1 southern team in 1A...I think.

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17 minutes ago, piscis1956 said:

So in 3A, 2 Region teams, 2 <Pound Sign>HendricksCountySmellsFunny teams, 3 Marion County teams, 2 southern Indiana teams, and Nortridge.

The Ft.Wayne semi-state is very well represented in 2A!  In total, I think 3 teams from southern Indiana and the rest north.

I was a tad surprised there is only 1 southern team in 1A...I think.

If you look at the teams by class by semi-state these numbers shouldn't be too surprising.

  3A 2A 1A
New Castle 25 24 32
Fort Wayne 19 29 29
East Chicago 26 22 25
Evansville 31 29 20

 

 

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2 hours ago, piscis1956 said:

So in 3A, 2 Region teams, 2 <Pound Sign>HendricksCountySmellsFunny teams, 3 Marion County teams, 2 southern Indiana teams, and Nortridge.

The Ft.Wayne semi-state is very well represented in 2A!  In total, I think 3 teams from southern Indiana and the rest north.

I was a tad surprised there is only 1 southern team in 1A...I think.

Ha ha. Somebody edited my post.  I wonder who that could have been.

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4 hours ago, Y2CJ41 said:

If you look at the teams by class by semi-state these numbers shouldn't be too surprising.

  3A 2A 1A
New Castle 25 24 32
Fort Wayne 19 29 29
East Chicago 26 22 25
Evansville 31 29 20

 

 

Are the same people that make fun of Ft. Wayne for being the weakest semi-state also the ones that think class wrestling is a stupid idea?

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16 minutes ago, WadeDuPont said:

So three of the 30 teams are from the Jay County Regional but it is considered weak???? Isn't a 3 in the formula used?

Be ready for the response that it is top heavy therefore it is not really a hard regional to advance from...

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22 minutes ago, Caleb Spires said:

Are the same people that make fun of Ft. Wayne for being the weakest semi-state also the ones that think class wrestling is a stupid idea?

Fort Wayne has really been dominant in the smaller classes. Wawasee is the first team not from the FW Semi-state to win either class 1A or 2A.

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1 hour ago, WadeDuPont said:

So three of the 30 teams are from the Jay County Regional but it is considered weak???? Isn't a 3 in the formula used?

And I think Jay County was close to representing from 3A, and I think they may have a better team than Northridge next year. Southern Wells hopefully gets in with a vote in for 1A, they bring back four semi state kids and I think most of their starters from this past year. South Adams was also in team state this past year and Delta who is also a solid team. Definitely a tough regional. Still not sure how half a regional being solid makes it top heavy

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I would think most regionals are top heavy. I believe the Jay Regional is compared to Carroll by some and the disparity of I think the Carroll Regional a 5 in the formula and Jay a 3 is unfair. I think they are more even then people think.

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6 minutes ago, WadeDuPont said:

I would think most regionals are top heavy. I believe the Jay Regional is compared to Carroll by some and the disparity of I think the Carroll Regional a 5 in the formula and Jay a 3 is unfair. I think they are more even then people think.

Carroll was a 4

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4 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Carroll was a 4

Thanks....I think the Jay should be as well. I don't keep the stats but it would be interesting to see state qualifies by regional over the last 5 to 10 years.

Edited by WadeDuPont
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15 minutes ago, Thor said:

And I think Jay County was close to representing from 3A, and I think they may have a better team than Northridge next year. Southern Wells hopefully gets in with a vote in for 1A, they bring back four semi state kids and I think most of their starters from this past year. South Adams was also in team state this past year and Delta who is also a solid team. Definitely a tough regional. Still not sure how half a regional being solid makes it top heavy

I think you are probably correct. I think the formula is flawed...makes no sense a senior can score 8 points at Semi-State and an Under Class-man 9. If you are going to use Seniors the margin needs to be greater than one.

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From another thread:

I answer this question each year. It's an important question, so I'm always happy to engage with at least a quick response.

The Regional Categories are determined based on the "crowdedness" of each. We're trying to determine how difficult it is to qualify for semi-state--not how good the top end is. In the same way we can't say Yorktown should be ranked higher in duals than Garrett because they got more state qualifiers (Garrett beat Yorktown at team state), we can't say one regional is more crowded than another based on 9 or 17 of the 250 wrestlers that feed into that regional.

In competition terms, a better way to determine how difficult it is to get through a regional would be to have 5 dual meets between the 4th through 8th best kids from each regional. The winner of most of those matches would give a much better answer than simply whose high-end state qualifier totals are more when the majority of those come from two schools ever year in Jay County's case.

Statewide, since we've gone to the Category system the last 4 years, we've been incredibly accurate in getting almost all of the best teams from the following season into the event. In 3A, we always have 9 or 10 of the next year's year-end Top 10. In 2A, we get 8 to 10 and in 1A it's been 8 or 9. And even in 1A and 2A, where lineup turnover is so large, we've only missed a Top 5 team being at the event once every two years on average--and those teams were in the final vote, so the qualification scoring thought highly of them.  

All this to say: the scoring is working very well as a whole. It's not designed to pick IHSAA champions or to predict which regional has the most high-end talent. It's designed to find the best dual-meet teams for next year and nothing more.

In math terms, below is how we arrived at the Category levels for the Jay County and Peru regionals:

Team Genius Rating Expected Semi-State Qualifiers in an Average Regional for this team's Genius level (based on 5 years of data of all teams in the state)
Yorktown 73.51 6.94
Bellmont 52.96 4.35
Adams Central 52.89 4.34
Jay County 49.43 3.97
Muncie Central 49.23 3.95
Delta 45.12 3.52
Southern Wells 38.78 2.91
South Adams 31.02 2.25
Norwell 30.37 2.20
Winchester Community 29.27 2.12
Monroe Central 24.77 1.80
Union City 19.07 1.45
Bluffton 14.04 1.17
Wes-Del 13.62 1.15
Daleville 12.28 1.09
Blackford 3.74 0.72
Cowan 1.99 0.66
Randolph Southern -11.74 0.29
Wapahani -33.02 0.06
  Total 44.93
  Per Weight 3.21
  CATEGORY 3
     
Team Genius Rating Expected Semi-State Qualifiers in an Average Regional for this team's Genius level (based on 5 years of data of all teams in the state)
Western 74.49 7.08
Oak Hill 70.55 6.51
Peru 60.65 5.24
Marion 53.46 4.41
Eastern (Greentown) 51.81 4.23
Maconaquah 48.42 3.86
Rochester Community 45.59 3.57
Cass 43.03 3.31
Wabash 40.69 3.08
Manchester 34.05 2.49
Kokomo 21.64 1.60
Northwestern 21.21 1.57
Madison Grant 19.96 1.50
Southwood 15.17 1.23
Mississinewa 12.62 1.10
Northfield 11.42 1.05
North Miami 6.53 0.83
Eastbrook 0.77 0.62
Caston -13.69 0.25
Taylor -21.39 0.15
Tri-Central -31.32 0.07
  Total 53.75
  Per Weight 3.84
  CATEGORY 4

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7 minutes ago, WadeDuPont said:

I think you are probably correct. I think the formula is flawed...makes no sense a senior can score 8 points at Semi-State and an Under Class-man 9. If you are going to use Seniors the margin needs to be greater than one.

Points for advancing to these levels in 3A, which you seem to be referring to:

Semi-state first round: Underclassmen 14, Seniors 6 (+8)

Semi-state second round: Underclassmen 20, Seniors 11 (+9)

State: Underclassmen 23-25, Seniors 14 (+9-11)

Seniors get some value because they're very predictive of a program's quality--but you can see those values are much less than an underclassman. What we're saying, essentially, in 3A, is that a team that produces a senior state qualifier (14 points) will on average replace him with an underclassmen semi-state first rounder (also 14 points).

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5 minutes ago, WadeDuPont said:

How is the Genius Rating calculated?

From another thread:

Here are Genius Ratings for the full season of 2017-18 in Indiana. Remember that they use the same baseline mathematical system that is used by mainstream sports websites' "computer ratings" and by Las Vegas in determining point spreads. These ratings consider every dual and tournament in the IndianaMat database for the whole year, with the exception of some specific early-season results for teams that played football late. The difference in rating between two teams represents roughly the expected point spread if those two teams wrestled a dual. Multiply that same point spread by 3 to estimate the favored team's expected gap in a tournament. Y2 will post these as sortable by class soon. If you've paid attention to these ratings before, you may notice that the top 5 teams this season have very high ratings. All schools 3-5 are the highest-rated teams in those slots that we've seen in the 9 years of doing this. Also, Brownsburg's score is only .02 off of the highest score we've seen.

Rank Team Name Rating SoS SoS Rank
1 Brownsburg 114.83 79.53 1
2 Perry Meridian 109.82 58.58 10
3 Evansville Mater Dei 107.66 61.12 6
4 Indianapolis Cathedral 105.66 56.31 16
5 Portage 105.16 66.92 2
6 Warren Central 94.38 50.57 32
7 Avon 90.26 63.86 3
8 Columbus East 90.20 62.39 4
9 Harrison (WL) 90.15 44.05 66
10 Crown Point 88.91 50.85 30
11 Chesterton 86.26 49.06 37
12 North Montgomery 84.50 43.24 68
13 Carmel 84.17 41.92 76
14 Merrillville 80.72 56.34 15
15 Penn 80.07 60.76 8
16 Zionsville 76.65 56.22 17
17 Castle 76.57 49.87 34
18 Roncalli 76.08 45.97 55
19 Wawasee 75.28 39.61 87
20 Northridge 75.15 37.11 117
21 Hamilton Southeastern 74.94 46.22 51
22 Western 74.49 39.20 91
23 Mishawaka 74.42 60.97 7
24 Yorktown 73.51 53.06 22
25 Prairie Heights 73.18 46.91 48
26 Carroll(Fort Wayne) 72.48 53.61 21
27 Hobart 71.62 44.89 62
28 Floyd Central 70.65 47.87 42
29 Oak Hill 70.55 28.46 217
30 Garrett 69.96 45.46 58
31 Center Grove 69.79 57.43 14
32 Pendleton Heights 69.62 45.90 56
33 LaPorte 68.40 51.62 26
34 Franklin Community 67.27 58.13 12
35 Jimtown 67.20 36.72 120
36 Westfield 66.76 52.16 24
37 Bloomington South 66.01 51.67 25
38 Edgewood 63.98 44.76 64
39 Lawrence North 63.32 58.28 11
40 Greenfield-Central 62.79 48.38 40
41 Central Noble 62.60 34.06 151
42 Knightstown 61.86 21.19 269
43 North Central 61.64 55.55 18
44 Jeffersonville 61.21 42.62 73
45 New Palestine 60.99 38.73 102
46 Peru 60.65 39.21 90
47 New Prairie 60.37 28.50 215
48 North Posey 60.24 40.40 84
49 Goshen 60.19 47.09 45
50 Attica 59.51 23.00 258
51 Mooresville 58.90 48.77 39
52 Fort Wayne Snider 58.77 31.80 182
53 Monrovia 58.57 28.15 219
54 Plymouth 58.16 37.42 111
55 Frankton 58.04 33.68 158
56 Lowell 57.77 47.44 44
57 Plainfield 57.69 46.60 50
58 Jennings County 57.29 37.38 113
59 McCutcheon 56.96 44.86 63
60 South Dearborn 56.43 32.79 169
61 East Central 56.02 43.22 69
62 Mount Vernon (Fortville) 55.23 42.38 75
63 Southridge 55.17 37.03 118
64 Milan 54.86 24.45 247
65 Leo 54.54 43.12 70
66 Hammond Gavit 53.92 16.71 292
67 Kankakee Valley 53.71 29.33 210
68 Marion 53.46 29.75 205
69 Huntington North 53.02 48.05 41
70 Bellmont 52.96 57.54 13
71 Adams Central 52.89 44.68 65
72 New Haven 52.80 45.09 61
73 Elkhart Central 52.03 51.40 28
74 Southmont 51.99 34.60 144
75 Lawrence Central 51.93 54.07 20
76 Eastern (Greentown) 51.81 28.31 218
77 Noblesville 51.22 42.64 72
78 Lafayette Jefferson 51.22 35.66 129
79 Ben Davis 51.19 59.74 9
80 Homestead 51.09 40.24 85
81 Anderson 50.98 31.39 186
82 Greencastle 50.42 30.72 193
83 Terre Haute South 50.29 35.48 134
84 Elkhart Memorial 49.74 51.00 29
85 Culver Academies 49.63 31.93 180
86 West Vigo 49.50 31.38 187
87 Jay County 49.43 30.64 194
88 Lawrenceburg 49.31 39.06 97
89 Muncie Central 49.23 34.21 147
90 Martinsville 48.94 48.94 38
91 Lake Central 48.77 61.19 5
92 Fort Wayne Bishop Dwenger 48.56 35.50 132
93 Maconaquah 48.42 32.22 174
94 Highland 48.33 36.43 124
95 Vincennes Lincoln 48.14 36.48 123
96 New Castle 47.37 33.84 155
97 Indian Creek 47.27 52.65 23
98 Southport 46.41 34.20 149
99 Centerville 46.24 22.92 259
100 Evansville Reitz 46.05 54.91 19
101 Gibson Southern 45.99 35.53 131
102 Churubusco 45.60 33.65 160
103 Rochester 45.59 32.22 173
104 Fishers 45.27 41.02 81
105 Concord 45.15 38.35 104
106 Delta 45.12 45.66 57
107 Boonville 44.24 25.37 239
108 Eastside 44.12 33.31 163
109 Greenwood 43.82 50.08 33
110 Pike Central 43.74 13.86 303
111 Whiteland 43.45 46.11 53
112 West Lafayette 43.29 29.86 202
113 Cass 43.03 26.93 229
114 Lakeland 42.23 38.73 103
115 Franklin County 41.97 33.46 161
116 New Albany 41.62 39.27 89
117 Seymour 41.35 37.77 109
118 Madison 40.94 20.00 277
119 Columbia City 40.86 41.72 77
120 Wabash 40.69 25.00 242
121 Calumet 40.42 46.08 54
122 Crawfordsville 40.37 27.57 222
123 Valparaiso 40.28 49.66 35
124 Decatur Central 40.10 34.63 143
125 Angola 39.92 36.15 126
126 Franklin Central 39.54 46.74 49
127 Fairhaven 39.28 33.15 164
128 Southern Wells 38.78 29.40 209
129 South Bend Riley 38.41 47.74 43
130 Rushville 38.24 33.10 165
131 Elwood 38.14 46.16 52
132 Evansville Memorial 37.94 40.87 82
133 Heritage Hills 37.84 31.85 181
134 Wheeler 37.26 29.81 204
135 Bloomington North 37.16 39.18 94
136 Shenandoah 36.39 34.44 146
137 Indianapolis Scecina 36.00 23.44 254
138 South Bend Washington 35.91 36.58 122
139 NorthWood 35.19 43.63 67
140 Pike 34.50 39.92 86
141 Manchester 34.05 30.53 195
142 Jasper 34.02 45.23 60
143 Rensselaer Central 33.35 24.84 245
144 North White 33.26 17.58 287
145 Eastern Hancock 32.93 30.47 198
146 East Noble 32.78 39.19 92
147 Mount Vernon (Posey) 32.44 27.13 226
148 Fairfield 31.96 39.19 93
149 Beech Grove 31.95 41.47 80
150 Twin Lakes 31.61 32.80 168
151 South Bend Adams 31.56 46.96 47
152 Lebanon 31.43 39.17 96
153 Evansville Central 31.02 41.59 79
154 South Adams 31.02 32.90 166
155 Triton Central 30.56 41.61 78
156 West Noble 30.46 35.30 137
157 Norwell 30.37 39.18 95
158 Indiana Deaf 29.56 10.36 313
159 Eastern (Pekin) 29.44 15.83 296
160 Winchester 29.27 31.74 183
161 Hamilton Heights 28.84 40.71 83
162 Triton 28.77 15.97 295
163 Columbus North 28.31 50.85 31
164 Benton Central 28.28 31.95 179
165 North Putnam 28.04 17.11 288
166 River Forest 27.77 30.33 200
167 South Vermillion 26.71 15.37 300
168 Lake Station Edison 26.13 37.96 108
169 Warsaw 25.69 45.43 59
170 LaVille 25.48 7.41 315
171 Danville 25.07 37.38 112
172 Monroe Central 24.77 19.64 280
173 Brown County 24.13 39.33 88
174 Tell City 23.47 29.82 203
175 Evansville North 22.88 35.32 136
176 Fort Wayne Concordia 22.83 35.09 139
177 Munster 22.62 51.53 27
178 Lapel 22.42 31.10 189
179 Kokomo 21.64 34.20 148
180 Indianapolis Bishop Chatard 21.56 34.59 145
181 Fort Wayne Northrop 21.41 35.76 127
182 Crawford County 21.33 -0.89 316
183 Rossville 21.31 20.98 273
184 Connersville 21.31 29.07 214
185 Northwestern 21.21 22.09 263
186 Michigan City 20.67 42.39 74
187 Logansport 20.41 38.84 99
188 Sheridan 20.25 21.34 268
189 West Central 20.14 24.96 244
190 Princeton 20.14 42.89 71
191 Boone Grove 20.10 18.75 282
192 Madison-Grant 19.96 31.61 184
193 Tipton 19.50 36.99 119
194 Shelbyville 19.26 35.50 133
195 Union City 19.07 21.15 271
196 Sullivan 18.90 21.01 272
197 Carroll (Flora) 18.90 23.30 255
198 Evansville Harrison 18.70 35.67 128
199 Fort Wayne South Side 18.33 30.77 192
200 Hammond 18.20 27.62 221
201 Terre Haute North 17.83 38.17 105
202 Richmond 17.32 33.97 152
203 Hagerstown 17.17 22.71 261
204 Fort Wayne Bishop Luers 16.75 24.09 249
205 Andrean 16.74 38.79 101
206 Alexandria 16.46 34.66 142
207 Griffith 15.92 46.98 46
208 DeKalb 15.39 38.00 107
209 Greensburg 15.22 35.15 138
210 Southwood 15.17 22.84 260
211 Winamac 14.82 24.19 248
212 Frankfort 14.74 34.89 141
213 Fountain Central 14.45 29.60 206
214 Owen Valley 14.13 23.65 252
215 Bluffton 14.04 26.30 234
216 Fort Wayne Wayne 13.68 37.15 116
217 Wes-Del 13.62 35.63 130
218 Cambridge City Lincoln 13.61 27.11 227
219 South Bend Clay 13.58 38.01 106
220 North Newton 13.46 25.87 236
221 Delphi 13.19 33.91 153
222 Clinton Prairie 12.87 16.69 293
223 Hanover Central 12.77 37.38 114
224 Mississinewa 12.62 36.63 121
225 Tippecanoe Valley 12.34 30.48 197
226 Daleville 12.28 24.53 246
227 Lafayette Central Catholic 11.99 25.56 238
228 Northview 11.49 38.82 100
229 Northfield 11.42 27.25 225
230 North Knox 11.38 21.82 265
231 South Putnam 11.30 33.74 156
232 Charlestown 10.54 32.22 175
233 Fremont 10.48 29.16 213
234 Bedford North Lawrence 10.41 29.46 208
235 Woodlan 10.24 32.88 167
236 Hammond Morton 9.95 30.93 190
237 Guerin Catholic 9.51 38.87 98
238 Seeger 9.25 18.73 283
239 Clinton Central 7.75 30.47 199
240 Knox 7.46 30.00 201
241 Tri-West 7.36 49.45 36
242 Faith Christian 7.34 8.79 314
243 Tri-Central 7.31 18.00 286
244 North Miami 6.53 32.79 170
245 Cloverdale 6.52 26.11 235
246 Cascade 5.58 33.85 154
247 Southwestern (Hanover) 5.26 23.01 257
248 Batesville 4.37 32.21 176
249 South Bend St. Joseph 4.21 33.71 157
250 John Glenn 3.85 23.85 251
251 South Spencer 3.84 36.24 125
252 Blackford 3.74 17.06 289
253 Indianapolis Lutheran 3.48 29.55 207
254 Rockville 3.37 11.42 310
255 Hebron 2.92 26.93 228
256 Tri 2.84 24.99 243
257 East Chicago Central 2.21 31.21 188
258 Howe School 2.03 35.03 140
259 Cowan 1.99 21.96 264
260 Scottsburg 1.59 16.45 294
261 North Harrison 1.19 27.50 223
262 Fort Wayne North Side 0.78 27.71 220
263 Eastbrook 0.77 26.70 231
264 South Newton 0.72 20.44 276
265 Hammond Clark 0.53 21.78 266
266 Indianapolis Arsenal Tech -0.23 30.88 191
267 Speedway -1.13 35.46 135
268 Western Boone -1.29 30.52 196
269 Tecumseh -1.30 18.85 281
270 Switzerland County -1.58 11.10 311
271 Union County -1.59 33.66 159
272 Westview -1.70 37.73 110
273 Northeastern -1.91 18.54 285
274 Whiting -2.63 26.59 232
275 North Judson -2.70 26.81 230
276 Hammond Bishop Noll -2.88 31.60 185
277 Indianapolis Arlington -2.98 16.91 290
278 Indianapolis Northwest -3.03 28.46 216
279 Frontier -3.37 23.64 253
280 Indianapolis Cardinal Ritter -4.31 27.37 224
281 Brebeuf Jesuit -4.68 32.42 171
282 Forest Park -4.76 24.04 250
283 New Washington -5.11 22.42 262
284 Paoli -5.13 29.24 211
285 North Vermillion -5.17 12.67 308
286 Whitko -5.47 33.37 162
287 Indianapolis Crispus Attucks -6.15 32.18 177
288 Indianapolis Marshall -6.15 32.18 178
289 Oldenburg Academy -6.90 25.66 237
290 Heritage -7.26 37.21 115
291 Providence -7.76 29.21 212
292 Indianapolis Manual -7.90 18.55 284
293 Randolph Southern -11.74 15.39 298
294 Culver Community -11.84 32.40 172
295 Evansville Bosse -11.91 21.19 270
296 Corydon Central -13.67 11.59 309
297 Caston -13.69 20.95 274
298 Mitchell -14.29 25.21 241
299 West Washington -14.79 19.93 279
300 Covington -14.92 16.88 291
301 Salem -16.30 10.49 312
302 Bremen -18.07 25.29 240
303 Indianapolis Broad Ripple -18.47 15.16 301
304 Taylor -21.39 26.39 233
305 Pioneer -22.90 14.87 302
306 Indianapolis Washington -23.74 12.78 306
307 Washington -24.77 20.76 275
308 Wood Memorial -24.92 12.68 307
309 Turkey Run -27.58 21.36 267
310 Providence Cristo Rey -28.13 15.37 299
311 Indianapolis Howe Community -29.36 15.61 297
312 Tri County -31.32 23.17 256
313 Wapahani -33.02 13.83 304
314 Blue River Valley -33.34 13.08 305
315 Gary West Side -33.43 34.08 150
316 Mishawaka Marian -48.10 19.98 278
         

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I know that this is a solid formula, and there has to be a way to calculate this, but I still don't see how a team like Marion has a higher genius rating than Bellmont. Peru has three teams with negative ratings, yet they somehow get a 4. And their top teams have a very high score, but I don't see why they are that high compared to a Bellmont or AC

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Weird that Yorktown the Delta Sectional Champion is almost 25 points higher than the Jay Sectional Champion - Jay County.  When head to head its probably close to a 43-36 score  with Yorktown winning. That's looking at head to head results and awarding a pin to a weight class the other team did not have a regional qualifier, and in most cases that weight class went on to semi state as well.

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Do this:

1. Take a given team you think is overrated or underrated in these ratings and add up their plus/minus from every single dual meet for the year. Then, add in their plus/minus for every single opponent faced in tournaments for the year (but only take 40% of that tournament final total because we only value individual tournament results that much).

2. Go to the ratings and add up the plus/minus between the ratings for every single team they faced for the season in the same way you did for the real scores in instruction #1.

The results of these two calculations will be identical in every case for every team in the state. They are all perfectly slotted according to their real-life results for the whole season--not according to one or two cherry-picked results or theoretical results. 

If you want to argue that a particular team was missing some guys for 3 weeks or that certain teams' ratings are padded by weaker schedules or other things--there are certainly some cases like that, I'm sure. But the ratings reflect one thing and one thing only: full-season results for everyone with zero guesses or biases included in any way.

Edited by maligned

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