2023 Al Smith Predictions and Analysis

[TysonNisley]

For fans that just can’t wait for the IHSAA State Tournament, the Al Smith Classic is a great preview of what’s to come, with several ranked wrestlers in every weight class, as well as more than half of the #1 ranked wrestlers in the state, and half of the top 10 ranked teams in Indiana. Let’s break down the numbers real quick:

 

Ranked Wrestlers: 

 

106- 8/20: 40%

113- 6/20: 30%

120- 5/20: 25%

126- 11/20: 55%

132- 8/20: 40%

138- 4/20: 20%

144- 8/20: 40%

150- 7/20: 35%

157- 7/20: 35%

165- 10/20: 50%

175- 7/20: 35%

190- 6/20: 30%

215- 6/20: 30%

285- 6/20: 30%

 

Total Ranked Wrestlers: 35.36%

 

Top 8 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

106- 2/8: 25%

113- 3/8: 37.5%

120- 4/8: 50%

126- 3/8: 37.5%

132- 5/8: 67.5%

138- 3/8: 37.5%

144- 4/8: 50%

150- 2/8: 25%

157- 6/8: 75%

165- 4/8: 50%

175- 5/8: 67.5%

190- 3/8: 37.5%

215: 4/8: 50%

285: 3/8: 37.5%

 

Total Top 8 Ranked Wrestlers: 46.25%

 

Total #1 Ranked Wrestlers: 9/14

 

Potential #1 vs. #2 matchups:

 

120: #1 Charlie Larocca vs. #2 Gavin Jendreas

157: #1 Mitchell Betz vs. #2 Beau Brabender

165: #1 Anthony Rinehart vs. #2 Waylon Cressell

175: #1 Noah Clouser vs. #2 Brenton Russell

 

With all of these numbers out of the way, I want to preface these predictions with the usual stuff.  I am making predictions without taking into consideration the seeds that some of these wrestlers may get. Trying to predict each wrestlers seed in addition to making my own predictions is not only an unreasonable amount of work, but I am very likely to get seeds perfectly correct, so I may have a 1st place and 2nd place prediction go down in the semis if the seeds make it happen. Additionally, since a lot of this work was done before the most recent set of rankings was released, I will be using the last set of rankings instead of the newest set of rankings, although relevant results that occurred after the last set of rankings will be considered when making predictions. Lastly, when listing ranked wrestlers for each weight class, I am not going to be including semi-state ranked wrestlers, although if I see a name that isn’t state ranked that I think could still make a major impact, I will include them. Those are really the only major things I have to say, so let’s start with 106:

 

106 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#2 Mason Jones

#7 Teigan Newell

#9 Talon Jessup

#12 Tyler Tun

#13 Justus Thrasher

#14 John Bissmeyer

#15 Alonzo Chantea

#19 Brock McCartney

 

Predictions:

 

Mason Jones

Talon Jessup

Teigan Newell

Justus Thrasher

 

I think that #2 Mason Jones is the clear favorite of this weight class, being the only returning state medalist, as well as making the finals of Al Smith last year. #7 Teigan Newell and #9 Talon Jessup seem to be the favorites to meet him there, although I’m giving the edge here to Jessup, who has a pretty impressive win against Cash Mays of Brownsburg, who is #18 in the state right now, but has the potential to make a deep run this year, evidenced by a solid Ironman run that saw him go further than Newell. Newell seems like a solid 3rd place pick, although you can never count a Crown Point wrestler from making a deep run. Speaking of wrestlers from powerhouse programs, #13 Justus Thrasher seems like a solid 4th place pick, owning a win over #14 John Bissmeyer. Bissmeyer had a 5-2 match with Jones earlier this year, so his level is definitely high, and owning a win in this instance is enough for me to place Thrasher at 4th, even though I only foresee him placing higher. Newell and Thrasher should be a great third place match. Only notable names here includes #12 Tyler Tun, who has had some solid performances this year, but hasn’t yet gotten that big win to catapult him into state medal conversations, making his performance at the Al Smith even more important. #15 Alonzo Chantea has only been rising in the state rankings, most notably getting a tech fall over previously state ranked Joy Cantu. Lastly, #19 Brock McCartney is another wrestler with an impressive record thus far this season, but needs to perform well this weekend and pick up a notable win to increase his image.

 

113 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#4 Gavin Lewis

#6 Owen Bunton

#8 Brady Harper

#12 Kaleb Salazar

#13 Connor Bayliss

#19 Nathan Reyes

 

Predictions:

 

Gavin Lewis

Brady Harper

Kaleb Salazar

Owen Bunton

 

I think that #4 Gavin Lewis is a pretty confident lock for me at this weight class. Lewis was a huge freshman incomer at this weight, and while he hasn’t made his case yet to be ranked higher than #4, he should win this tournament quite convincingly. I think that the wrestler to meet him in the finals could be any of the next three wrestlers, with #6 Owen Bunton being the next highly ranked wrestler, #8 Brady Harper being another talented incoming freshman, and #12 Kaleb Salazar having a good history at this tournament, taking 4th at 106 last year, which included an overtime loss to the eventual champ. I think Harper is my pick for second, despite his loss by fall earlier this season to Bunton. Harper has a lot of great middle school results, and has proven to be a threat at the high school level, and his potential here makes me think that Harper is a good upset to pick. Additionally, I think Salazar is really good as well, and is the only mentioned wrestler thus far with state experience, so I want to pick him over Bunton as well, although both of these matchups will be very close. #13 Connor Bayliss is another state qualifier in the field, although the depth of the top 4 will make it tough for him to push through. The last state ranked wrestler in this field is #19 Nathan Reyes, who is likely a solid 6th place finisher, but doesn’t have the resume quite yet to contend with the rest of the ranked field.

 

120 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Charlie Larocca

#2 Gavin Jendreas

#5 Seth Aubin

#8 Porter Temples

#19 Dylan Wills

UR Tommy Frazier

 

Predictions:

 

Gavin Jendreas

Charlie Larocca

Seth Aubin

Tommy Frazier

 

The finals at this weight class is clear, and this might be the premier match of the whole tournament. #1 Charlie Larocca went on a tear last year en route to his first state title, and has posted consistent results since. #2 Gavin Jendreas took a tough 5th place last year after drawing then #1 Preston Haines in the quarterfinals last year, but his off season has some very eye opening results, which included a bloodround performance at Fargo, losing to fellow Indiana stud Jake Hockaday. I think in terms of this matchup, I like Jendreas here to win. The easiest evidence to this pick is his history against Larocca, leading the series 3-0, with two of those wins coming from Al Smith finals matches. Last year was closer than 2021, so you can expect this match to be razor thin. As for third and fourth, I think that #5 Seth Aubin is the clear favorite behind Jendreas and Larocca, being a returning medalist, although #8 Porter Temples also has state experience and can challenge Aubin for that 3rd place spot. #19 Dylan Wills is the last state ranked wrestler in this weight class, but he has not posted a significant win yet that would make me think he could upset someone here. Of course, you never know though. The last wrestler I want to mention is Tommy Frazier, who is unranked but is a state qualifier. He’s taken a couple of losses this season, but he could certainly figure things out and become an immediate threat at this weight class. Last year, he wrestled a 7-3 match with Jendreas en route to a third place finish. With this history in mind, as well as three falls last year over Temples, I think he gets out of his slump and puts together a solid performance.

 

126 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#2 Landon Hawkins

#5 Tanner Tishner

#8 Elijah Broady

#9 Gavin Bragg

#10 Dominic Brown

#11 Matthew Maldonado

#14 Dylan Bennett

#16 Ayden Campbell

#18 Cameron Senter

#19 Daniel Mata

#20 Terry Easley

 

Predictions:

 

Landon Hawkins

Tanner Tishner

Elijah Broady

Dominic Brown

 

11 out of the 20 ranked wrestlers at this weight class will be at this tournament, meaning that 3 wrestlers ranked in the state (and potentially more than 3) will not be wrestling on day two. That being said, I think that this is a pretty straightforward weight class to predict. #2 Landon Hawkins is the favorite at this weight class, but I think #5 Tanner Tishner has very high peaks and is very capable of winning against Hawkins. Expect fireworks for this finals match. As for 3rd and 4th, I like #8 Elijah Broady taking the 3rd place match, and 4th place will either go to #9 Gavin Bragg or #10 Dominic Brown. All three of these wrestlers were state qualifiers at 120 last year, where Brown beat Bragg 5-4 for 5th, even though Bragg has a 5-4 win over Brown this season to make this a razor close match if it happens. Interestingly enough, Broady didn’t place at Al Smith last season, losing to #14 Dylan Bennett, yet another state qualifier in this weight class, but I think his results since then have been impressive enough for me to cement him at third. Other wrestlers to pay attention to here is #11 Matthew Maldonado, who has been solid for Merriville and wears a notable last name that has performed for Merriville for several years; #16 Ayden Campbell, who was a very impressive freshman last year; and #18 Cameron Senter, who you can add to the list of state qualifiers that populate this weight class.

 

132 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#3 Eddie Goss

#4 Hayden Demarco

#5 Tye Linser

#6 Guillermo Rivera

#7 Angelo Vargo

#12 Carter Fielden

#13 Sonny Sessa

#17 Dalton Robson

 

Predictions:

 

Eddie Goss

Hayden Demarco

Guillermo Rivera

Tye Linser

 

This is a super interesting weight class with a lot of tough wrestlers that can make some noise. As opposed to some other weight classes in Indiana, I think the gaps at 132 between the highest ranked wrestlers (besides Hockaday and Thrine) and the rest of the ranked field is quite small. I think this will be an upset heavy weight class, but to keep things simple for now, I think that #3 Eddie Goss beats #4 Hayden Demarco in a highly competitive, high scoring match. Demarco is a previous Al Smith champ, beating Zar Walker in the process to shake up the rankings last year, but Goss has been incredibly solid this past year into the current season, and his consistency makes me more confident in picking him, as opposed to Demarco, who has high peaks but has some lows last year that make him a less confident pick. #5 Tye Linser is the next highest ranked wrestler, but #6 Guillermo Rivera and #7 Angelo Vargo are right behind him, and I think that they could potential dethrone Linser from his #5 spot. Rivera in particular has been super impressive, getting a 7-1 victory over stud freshman Angelo Vargo. I think that Vargo’s middle school success puts him into a top 4 conversation, but Linser has already proven himself at the high school level, having wins like Jackson Heaston and Griffin Van Tichelt to name a few over the past year, so I’ll take him getting 4th. #12 Carter Fielden is another potential high placer, as well as a returning state placer, but has a couple of tough losses on the year. #13 Sonny Sessa is a state qualifier and has decent losses to Demarco and Rivera, meaning that he can definitely compete with some of the better guys in this bracket. Lastly, #17 Dalton Robson has been solid, but will need Al Smith to boost his resume and make himself a threat at 132.

 

138 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Kyrel Leavell

#4 Clinton Shepherd

#5 Wesley Smith

#17 Cam Dews

UR Josh England

 

Predictions:

 

Kyrel Leavell

Clinton Shepherd

Wesley Smith

Cam Dews

 

Despite a lack of ranked wrestlers in this weight class, there is a super interesting matchup destined to happen in the finals between #1 Kyrel Leavell and #4 Clinton Shepherd (I want to note as well that the new rankings have Shepherd listed at #2 in the state, making this a 5th #1 vs. #2 matchup going down at the Al Smith). Leavell has proven himself as a national threat, having a state championship to his name and beating several nationally ranked wrestlers throughout his career. Shepherd is coming off of a nationally ranked win himself, however, winning the Crown Point vs. Brownsburg matchup between Brady Ison, who was ranked #20 in the nation (per FloWrestling) at the time. Shepherd will need all the momentum he can get to take out Leavell though. I personally think that Shepherd is super impressive, but Leavell is likely the most underrated Indiana wrestler that we have right now, and should absolutely be in the national rankings, so I am taking Leavell to win. As for 3rd and 4th, #5 Wesley Smith is a very confident 3rd, while #17 Cam Dews is the only remaining state ranked wrestler, meaning that he will fit in nicely into the 4th place spot. I do want to shout out unranked Josh England, as a LaPorte wrestler with tons of potential. Dews has established himself a little more than England, but England has the potential to make the upset here and put himself into the conversation of qualifying for state.

 

144 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Reese Courtney

#5 Zar Walker

#6 Christian Arberry

#7 Dillon Graham

#9 Brody Hagewood

#12 Marlone Kirksy

#16 Michael Ortega

#18 Sam Wolpert

 

Predictions:

 

Reese Courtney

Zar Walker

Christian Arberry

Dillon Graham

 

I think that despite #5 Zar Walker’s ranking, he will easily be contending for a title this year, and this matchup between him and #1 Reese Courtney should be viewed as such a caliber of match. I don’t see the finals being any other wrestler, so this will most likely be going down. Reese Courtney has really elevated levels this past year, which his Al Smith title from last year and his runner-up performance proves. Walker, on the other hand, while still having great results, has slightly underperformed at his last Al Smith tournament, as well as the state tournament. This match is a question of whether Walker brings his peak performance, because that version of Walker can definitely beat Courtney. I think Courtney is the safer and more probable pick here, but be ready for a great match. 3rd and 4th is #6 Christian Arberry and #7 Dillon Graham, in some order. Arberry beat Graham 3-2 earlier this season, and Graham has quite a few losses this year, although these losses are all to wrestlers ranked higher than him, and some of these losses are actually indicators that Graham can do some real damage in this bracket, for example, his 4-2 loss to Courtney and his 7-4 loss to Walker. That being said, I think that Arberry wins another razor close match, but if Graham can finally breakthrough and pick up a higher ranked win, it will set him up nicely for the post season. I predict the rest of the field to be a tier below the wrestlers ranked above, but #9 Brody Hagewood is a returning state qualifier, giving him some credibility to pull an upset if he has improved since last season.

 

150 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Wyatt Krejsa

#5 Wesley Harper

#10 Evan Cruz

#12 Brock Hagewood

#14 Chase Kasprzak

#16 Caydn Smith

#19 Aaron Durham

 

Predictions:

 

Wyatt Krejsa

Wesley Harper

Evan Cruz

Brock Hagewood

 

#1 Wyatt Krejsa is another wrestler at this tournament that I would consider a lock. He had a super impressive Ironman run that saw him upset the #5 ranked wrestler in the country, and has picked up some other impressive wins since his runner-up performance at state last year, including Kyrel Leavell and Brady Ison. The question at this weight class is who will be 2nd, and I was really close to placing #10 Evan Cruz here, taking a very good Tommy Gibbs to a 1-0 loss at the Carnahan this year, and having good history at this tournament in prior years. However, last year, I overlooked #5 Wesley Harper at this tournament, leaving him out of the top 4, and he proved my predictions wrong with an upset over state placer Josh Johnson in the quarterfinals and a competitive match with Zar Walker before injury defaulting out of the tournament. I should also mention that he beat Reese Courtney the weekend after, which is an extremely impressive win, and one that Cruz does not own a similar caliber of, so I think Harper will beat Cruz in a close match. #12 Brock Hagewood is a solid 4th place pick for me. There are a couple of other state ranked wrestlers in the field, including #14 Chase Kasprzak and #16 Cadyn Smith, who have previous history at this tournament, but Hagewood is a state qualifier and placed 6th at last year’s Al Smith, so I am comfortable with placing him at 4th.

 

157 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Mitchell Betz

#2 Beau Brabender

#4 Silas Stits

#5 Anthony Cashman

#6 Adrian Pellot

#7 Gavin Davis

#11 Kevon Russell

UR Griffin Van Tichelt

 

Predictions:

 

Mitchell Betz

Silas Stits

Beau Brabender

Anthony Cashman

 

This weight class is pretty insane, with 6 of the top 8 battling it out for an Al Smith title. The favorite here is #1 Mitchell Betz, who placed second last year at Al Smith, and has a win this off-season to #2 Beau Brabender. I actually think that #4 Silas Stits has what it takes to beat Brabender for the finals spot, and actually beat Brabender last year at Al Smith. It is worth noting that Al Smith was an underperformance last year for Brabender, and he went on to take 4th at state, while Stits lost Friday night. There are a lot of variables that could go into this match, but I think that Stits takes it if they meet in the semis. #5 Anthony Cashman has been solid in his descent to 157, aside from a hiccup to Silas Foster, who is a wild dark horse in Indiana right now. I think that this matchup between 4th placers will be extremely close, and I don’t really have a great reason to put Brabender over Cashman. It’s a 50/50 match to me, but I’ll take Brabender as the higher ranked wrestler. #6 Adrian Pellot is a returning state placer as well, but I think that this weight class is a bit too deep for me to confidently predict an upset here. #7 Gavin Davis lost Friday night last year, but I think it should be interesting to note that he beat Brabender at Al Smith last year. As said previously, this performance from Brabender seemed to be a low point last season, and the better version of Brabender will compete better in this match. An unranked wrestler I want to mention is Griffin Van Tichelt, who will obviously be ranked once the rankings are updated. He is up from 132, and has two close losses on the season to Mason Day, but he is a solid wrestler that can do some damage, and will do some damage once he adjusts to this new weight class.

 

165 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Anthony Rinehart

#2 Waylon Cressell

#3 Duke Myers

#6 Evan Roudebush

#11 Michael Mavros

#14 Deaglan Pleak

#15 Sean Breedlove

#17 Ethan Smith

#18 Blake Wahl

#20 Marques Young

 

Predictions:

 

Anthony Rinehart

Waylon Cressell

Duke Myers

Evan Roudebush

 

165 is yet another loaded weight class, with the top 3 in attendance, along with 7 other state ranked wrestlers to leave at least two state ranked wrestlers off of the podium. The finals here is a big one, and a really big question mark match. #2 Waylon Cressell is a transfer from North Dakota, and has been relatively untested this season, although he did beat #5 (at 175) Bray Emerine, proving that he is a legitimate title contender. Cressell also placed 3rd at IHPO, losing only to Fargo champ Tristin Greene, although Rinehart has a win over this same wrestler, so it seems at this moment that Rinehart has the advantage. This win isn’t Rinehart’s only claim to be the better wrestler, spending time in the national rankings and placing at Ironman in 2022. That being said, this match should be very intriguing, and a great preview for the state finals. #3 Duke Myers is capable of spoiling this match, especially given that we don’t know exactly how good Cressell is yet. I don’t think the upset happens, but it is definitely possible. #6 Evan Roudebush is in a tier below the top 3, but is still a pretty confident lock for 4th. Two wrestlers that could challenge Roudebush is #11 Michael Mavros, who has improved rapidly this past season, and #14 Deaglan Pleak, who placed 8th at last year’s Al Smith, highlighted by a bloodround win over eventual 8th placer Conner Watts.

 

175 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Brenton Russell

#2 Aidan Costello

#3 Kyle Harden

#3 (at 190) Noah Clouser

#8 Chase Leech

#9 Cameron Crisp

#11 Zymarion Hollyfield

 

Predictions:

 

Noah Clouser

Brenton Russell

Aidan Costello

Kyle Harden

 

This weight class is very strong at the top, and it becomes even stronger with the addition of #3 Noah Clouser, who makes his descent from 190 (and enters as the #1 ranked wrestler at 175 in the newest set of rankings). Clouser had a great showing at Al Smith last year, taking 2nd and winning against #2 Aidan Costello and #3 Kyle Harden along the way. I think that Clouser can repeat this performance and win against both of these opponents again, but these matches last year were close, and both of them will be ready to pull of the upset. I think that #1 Brenton Russell is the one that makes it to the finals over both Costello and Harden. Costello beat Harden last year in the 5th place match at state, and Russell, although the highest returning placer in the field, is up from 160, while the rest of the top 4 wrestled this weight class last year, meaning that his experience against the field is limited. What shouldn’t be discounted, however, is the strength of his off season wins last year, picking up very notable wins over Mitchell Betz, Anthony Rinehart, and current #16 in the country Carson Thomas. Neither Costello or Harden have such a strong lost of wins, so I think Russell makes the finals. Somebody that I think could spoil any of these potential match is #8 Chase Leech, who is much better than his ranking might indicate, with not one, not two, not three, not four, but FIVE wins in the past year against Russell, as well as a win over last year’s 160 state runner-up Luke Kemper. While five wins over one of my predicted finalists might indicate that Leech should be in the top 4, but he has a loss to Costello last off season, and took a weird loss earlier in the year that dropped him in the rankings. I think a game Leech can potentially win this tournament, but for consistency’s sake, I’ll keep him out.

 

190 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#2 Luke Penola

#4 Vinny Freeman

#7 Kenneth Bisping

#13 Donovan Blair

#14 Austin Reading

#16 Aleksandar Tatum

 

Predictions:

 

Luke Penola

Vinny Freeman

Kenneth Bisping

Donovan Blair

 

I think that this weight class could be another lock, with #2 Luke Penola elevating levels this past year, taking 3rd at state, and picking up some impressive off season wins such as Gunner Henry and Reid Schroeder. #4 Vinny Freeman has proven himself as a dark horse though, placing 6th last year after being relatively unknown, but we will have to see if he can take it to Penola as the only returning placer in the field. #7 Kenneth Bisping is also a potential finals candidate, but has not yet made the podium. We will have to see if Bisping has grown levels since last year and can compete with the rapidly improving sophomore from Penn. The 4th place spot here goes to either #13 Donovan Blair, a state qualifier from Wawasee, #14 Austin Reading, a sophomore from Crown Point who has found his way in a very tough Crown Point lineup, and #16 Aleksandr Tatum, a freshman from Hobart who has posted solid results so far this season. I think that Tatum has been good this year, but has taken tough losses to both Freeman and Bisping this season. Reading, while a part of one of the best programs in the state, has yet to cement himself as one of Crown Point’s top threats, and I don’t feel confident yet picking him over Blair, who has already proven himself as a state quality wrestler.

 

215 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Will Clark

#3 Kaden McConnell

#4 Keegan Martin

#6 Devin Kendrex

#10 Jackson Weingart

#14 Everett Mcclelland

 

Predictions:

 

Will Clark

Kaden McConnell

Jackson Weingart

Keegan Martin

 

Can anybody stop #1 Will Clark? He has been one of the most dominant wrestlers in Indiana right now, and it doesn’t seem like anybody will stop him this year from claiming a second state title. #3 Kaden McConnell is the biggest threat to Clark here, taking 2nd last year at state, and posting solid results since then, including a 3-2 performance at Ironman. I don’t think he’s quite ready to pull the upset, but he is certainly the favorite to meet him in the finals. The 3rd and 4th place spots go to either #4 Keegan Martin, #6 Devin Kendrex, and #10 Jackson Weingart. Kendrex and Weingart have been on the podium before, but Martin had a 3rd place finish at the Al Smith last year that included wins over both Kendrex and Weingart. Kendrex did beat Martin Friday night, so he has the most recent win. However, Kendrex lost the last two matches to Weingart, so making a solid prediction here will be tough. I’m going to go with Weingart as the third place finisher. His match with Martin for 3rd at last year’s Al Smith was highly competitive, and he has been wrestling great otherwise. Additionally, he has a 5-4 loss with McConnell this season, showing that he has great potential to contend with even McConnell and Clark. Keegan Martin, despite having the loss at state to Kendrex, has picked up wins over much of the field, and has been more consistent than Kendrex, who has taken a couple tougher losses than Martin.

 

285 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Paul Clark

#5 Hosia Smith

#7 Anthony Popi

#15 Luke Juris

#16 Ethan Dodson

#19 Triston Meschede

UR Nate Johnson

 

Predictions:

 

Paul Clark

Hosia Smith

Anthony Popi

Nate Johnson

 

I want to say that #1 Paul Clark is a lock here, and I still definitely think he’s the favorite, but #5 Hosia Smith is a dangerous heavyweight that is most certainly a state title contender. His state run last year ended early with a semi-state upset loss, but he did take a win over eventual state champ Leighton Jones, showing that he can pick up wins of that level, which he will most certainly need to beat Clark. For 3rd, I’m going with #7 Anthony Popi, who I think is a pretty solid lock for 3rd, as a state qualifier that has shown real promise for a podium run this year with a 3-2 loss to #2 Brady Beck. There are several state ranked wrestlers in the field that could contend for 4th, but one wrestler in particular that is interesting here is Nate Johnson, who has been behind #4 Tyler Schott in Center Grove’s lineup, but is a two time state qualifier that will be wrestling with a fire under himself, hoping to eventually win the roster battle and claim a spot on the podium. Challenging Johnson will be #15 Luke Juris, who had a close 3-2 with Popi earlier this year, #16 Ethan Dodson, a senior from Fort Wayne Snider who will have his first big test of the season at Al Smith, and #19 Triston Meschede, who’s had some competitive matches with tough wrestlers at this weight, including a 3-2 loss to Juris and a 5-2 loss to #3 Aramis McNutt. I don’t think any of these wrestlers quite have the pedigree yet to beat Johnson, so I will lock in Johnson for 4th.

 

[GenHeavyHandz]

25 minutes ago, TysonNisley said:

For fans that just can’t wait for the IHSAA State Tournament, the Al Smith Classic is a great preview of what’s to come, with several ranked wrestlers in every weight class, as well as more than half of the #1 ranked wrestlers in the state, and half of the top 10 ranked teams in Indiana. Let’s break down the numbers real quick:

 

Ranked Wrestlers: 

 

106- 8/20: 40%

113- 6/20: 30%

120- 5/20: 25%

126- 11/20: 55%

132- 8/20: 40%

138- 4/20: 20%

144- 8/20: 40%

150- 7/20: 35%

157- 7/20: 35%

165- 10/20: 50%

175- 7/20: 35%

190- 6/20: 30%

215- 6/20: 30%

285- 6/20: 30%

 

Total Ranked Wrestlers: 35.36%

 

Top 8 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

106- 2/8: 25%

113- 3/8: 37.5%

120- 4/8: 50%

126- 3/8: 37.5%

132- 5/8: 67.5%

138- 3/8: 37.5%

144- 4/8: 50%

150- 2/8: 25%

157- 6/8: 75%

165- 4/8: 50%

175- 5/8: 67.5%

190- 3/8: 37.5%

215: 4/8: 50%

285: 3/8: 37.5%

 

Total Top 8 Ranked Wrestlers: 46.25%

 

Total #1 Ranked Wrestlers: 9/14

 

Potential #1 vs. #2 matchups:

 

120: #1 Charlie Larocca vs. #2 Gavin Jendreas

157: #1 Mitchell Betz vs. #2 Beau Brabender

165: #1 Anthony Rinehart vs. #2 Waylon Cressell

175: #1 Noah Clouser vs. #2 Brenton Russell

 

With all of these numbers out of the way, I want to preface these predictions with the usual stuff.  I am making predictions without taking into consideration the seeds that some of these wrestlers may get. Trying to predict each wrestlers seed in addition to making my own predictions is not only an unreasonable amount of work, but I am very likely to get seeds perfectly correct, so I may have a 1st place and 2nd place prediction go down in the semis if the seeds make it happen. Additionally, since a lot of this work was done before the most recent set of rankings was released, I will be using the last set of rankings instead of the newest set of rankings, although relevant results that occurred after the last set of rankings will be considered when making predictions. Lastly, when listing ranked wrestlers for each weight class, I am not going to be including semi-state ranked wrestlers, although if I see a name that isn’t state ranked that I think could still make a major impact, I will include them. Those are really the only major things I have to say, so let’s start with 106:

 

106 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#2 Mason Jones

#7 Teigan Newell

#9 Talon Jessup

#12 Tyler Tun

#13 Justus Thrasher

#14 John Bissmeyer

#15 Alonzo Chantea

#19 Brock McCartney

 

Predictions:

 

Mason Jones

Talon Jessup

Teigan Newell

Justus Thrasher

 

I think that #2 Mason Jones is the clear favorite of this weight class, being the only returning state medalist, as well as making the finals of Al Smith last year. #7 Teigan Newell and #9 Talon Jessup seem to be the favorites to meet him there, although I’m giving the edge here to Jessup, who has a pretty impressive win against Cash Mays of Brownsburg, who is #18 in the state right now, but has the potential to make a deep run this year, evidenced by a solid Ironman run that saw him go further than Newell. Newell seems like a solid 3rd place pick, although you can never count a Crown Point wrestler from making a deep run. Speaking of wrestlers from powerhouse programs, #13 Justus Thrasher seems like a solid 4th place pick, owning a win over #14 John Bissmeyer. Bissmeyer had a 5-2 match with Jones earlier this year, so his level is definitely high, and owning a win in this instance is enough for me to place Thrasher at 4th, even though I only foresee him placing higher. Newell and Thrasher should be a great third place match. Only notable names here includes #12 Tyler Tun, who has had some solid performances this year, but hasn’t yet gotten that big win to catapult him into state medal conversations, making his performance at the Al Smith even more important. #15 Alonzo Chantea has only been rising in the state rankings, most notably getting a tech fall over previously state ranked Joy Cantu. Lastly, #19 Brock McCartney is another wrestler with an impressive record thus far this season, but needs to perform well this weekend and pick up a notable win to increase his image.

 

113 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#4 Gavin Lewis

#6 Owen Bunton

#8 Brady Harper

#12 Kaleb Salazar

#13 Connor Bayliss

#19 Nathan Reyes

 

Predictions:

 

Gavin Lewis

Brady Harper

Kaleb Salazar

Owen Bunton

 

I think that #4 Gavin Lewis is a pretty confident lock for me at this weight class. Lewis was a huge freshman incomer at this weight, and while he hasn’t made his case yet to be ranked higher than #4, he should win this tournament quite convincingly. I think that the wrestler to meet him in the finals could be any of the next three wrestlers, with #6 Owen Bunton being the next highly ranked wrestler, #8 Brady Harper being another talented incoming freshman, and #12 Kaleb Salazar having a good history at this tournament, taking 4th at 106 last year, which included an overtime loss to the eventual champ. I think Harper is my pick for second, despite his loss by fall earlier this season to Bunton. Harper has a lot of great middle school results, and has proven to be a threat at the high school level, and his potential here makes me think that Harper is a good upset to pick. Additionally, I think Salazar is really good as well, and is the only mentioned wrestler thus far with state experience, so I want to pick him over Bunton as well, although both of these matchups will be very close. #13 Connor Bayliss is another state qualifier in the field, although the depth of the top 4 will make it tough for him to push through. The last state ranked wrestler in this field is #19 Nathan Reyes, who is likely a solid 6th place finisher, but doesn’t have the resume quite yet to contend with the rest of the ranked field.

 

120 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Charlie Larocca

#2 Gavin Jendreas

#5 Seth Aubin

#8 Porter Temples

#19 Dylan Wills

UR Tommy Frazier

 

Predictions:

 

Gavin Jendreas

Charlie Larocca

Seth Aubin

Tommy Frazier

 

The finals at this weight class is clear, and this might be the premier match of the whole tournament. #1 Charlie Larocca went on a tear last year en route to his first state title, and has posted consistent results since. #2 Gavin Jendreas took a tough 5th place last year after drawing then #1 Preston Haines in the quarterfinals last year, but his off season has some very eye opening results, which included a bloodround performance at Fargo, losing to fellow Indiana stud Jake Hockaday. I think in terms of this matchup, I like Jendreas here to win. The easiest evidence to this pick is his history against Larocca, leading the series 3-0, with two of those wins coming from Al Smith finals matches. Last year was closer than 2021, so you can expect this match to be razor thin. As for third and fourth, I think that #5 Seth Aubin is the clear favorite behind Jendreas and Larocca, being a returning medalist, although #8 Porter Temples also has state experience and can challenge Aubin for that 3rd place spot. #19 Dylan Wills is the last state ranked wrestler in this weight class, but he has not posted a significant win yet that would make me think he could upset someone here. Of course, you never know though. The last wrestler I want to mention is Tommy Frazier, who is unranked but is a state qualifier. He’s taken a couple of losses this season, but he could certainly figure things out and become an immediate threat at this weight class. Last year, he wrestled a 7-3 match with Jendreas en route to a third place finish. With this history in mind, as well as three falls last year over Temples, I think he gets out of his slump and puts together a solid performance.

 

126 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#2 Landon Hawkins

#5 Tanner Tishner

#8 Elijah Broady

#9 Gavin Bragg

#10 Dominic Brown

#11 Matthew Maldonado

#14 Dylan Bennett

#16 Ayden Campbell

#18 Cameron Senter

#19 Daniel Mata

#20 Terry Easley

 

Predictions:

 

Landon Hawkins

Tanner Tishner

Elijah Broady

Dominic Brown

 

11 out of the 20 ranked wrestlers at this weight class will be at this tournament, meaning that 3 wrestlers ranked in the state (and potentially more than 3) will not be wrestling on day two. That being said, I think that this is a pretty straightforward weight class to predict. #2 Landon Hawkins is the favorite at this weight class, but I think #5 Tanner Tishner has very high peaks and is very capable of winning against Hawkins. Expect fireworks for this finals match. As for 3rd and 4th, I like #8 Elijah Broady taking the 3rd place match, and 4th place will either go to #9 Gavin Bragg or #10 Dominic Brown. All three of these wrestlers were state qualifiers at 120 last year, where Brown beat Bragg 5-4 for 5th, even though Bragg has a 5-4 win over Brown this season to make this a razor close match if it happens. Interestingly enough, Broady didn’t place at Al Smith last season, losing to #14 Dylan Bennett, yet another state qualifier in this weight class, but I think his results since then have been impressive enough for me to cement him at third. Other wrestlers to pay attention to here is #11 Matthew Maldonado, who has been solid for Merriville and wears a notable last name that has performed for Merriville for several years; #16 Ayden Campbell, who was a very impressive freshman last year; and #18 Cameron Senter, who you can add to the list of state qualifiers that populate this weight class.

 

132 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#3 Eddie Goss

#4 Hayden Demarco

#5 Tye Linser

#6 Guillermo Rivera

#7 Angelo Vargo

#12 Carter Fielden

#13 Sonny Sessa

#17 Dalton Robson

 

Predictions:

 

Eddie Goss

Hayden Demarco

Guillermo Rivera

Tye Linser

 

This is a super interesting weight class with a lot of tough wrestlers that can make some noise. As opposed to some other weight classes in Indiana, I think the gaps at 132 between the highest ranked wrestlers (besides Hockaday and Thrine) and the rest of the ranked field is quite small. I think this will be an upset heavy weight class, but to keep things simple for now, I think that #3 Eddie Goss beats #4 Hayden Demarco in a highly competitive, high scoring match. Demarco is a previous Al Smith champ, beating Zar Walker in the process to shake up the rankings last year, but Goss has been incredibly solid this past year into the current season, and his consistency makes me more confident in picking him, as opposed to Demarco, who has high peaks but has some lows last year that make him a less confident pick. #5 Tye Linser is the next highest ranked wrestler, but #6 Guillermo Rivera and #7 Angelo Vargo are right behind him, and I think that they could potential dethrone Linser from his #5 spot. Rivera in particular has been super impressive, getting a 7-1 victory over stud freshman Angelo Vargo. I think that Vargo’s middle school success puts him into a top 4 conversation, but Linser has already proven himself at the high school level, having wins like Jackson Heaston and Griffin Van Tichelt to name a few over the past year, so I’ll take him getting 4th. #12 Carter Fielden is another potential high placer, as well as a returning state placer, but has a couple of tough losses on the year. #13 Sonny Sessa is a state qualifier and has decent losses to Demarco and Rivera, meaning that he can definitely compete with some of the better guys in this bracket. Lastly, #17 Dalton Robson has been solid, but will need Al Smith to boost his resume and make himself a threat at 132.

 

138 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Kyrel Leavell

#4 Clinton Shepherd

#5 Wesley Smith

#17 Cam Dews

UR Josh England

 

Predictions:

 

Kyrel Leavell

Clinton Shepherd

Wesley Smith

Cam Dews

 

Despite a lack of ranked wrestlers in this weight class, there is a super interesting matchup destined to happen in the finals between #1 Kyrel Leavell and #4 Clinton Shepherd (I want to note as well that the new rankings have Shepherd listed at #2 in the state, making this a 5th #1 vs. #2 matchup going down at the Al Smith). Leavell has proven himself as a national threat, having a state championship to his name and beating several nationally ranked wrestlers throughout his career. Shepherd is coming off of a nationally ranked win himself, however, winning the Crown Point vs. Brownsburg matchup between Brady Ison, who was ranked #20 in the nation (per FloWrestling) at the time. Shepherd will need all the momentum he can get to take out Leavell though. I personally think that Shepherd is super impressive, but Leavell is likely the most underrated Indiana wrestler that we have right now, and should absolutely be in the national rankings, so I am taking Leavell to win. As for 3rd and 4th, #5 Wesley Smith is a very confident 3rd, while #17 Cam Dews is the only remaining state ranked wrestler, meaning that he will fit in nicely into the 4th place spot. I do want to shout out unranked Josh England, as a LaPorte wrestler with tons of potential. Dews has established himself a little more than England, but England has the potential to make the upset here and put himself into the conversation of qualifying for state.

 

144 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Reese Courtney

#5 Zar Walker

#6 Christian Arberry

#7 Dillon Graham

#9 Brody Hagewood

#12 Marlone Kirksy

#16 Michael Ortega

#18 Sam Wolpert

 

Predictions:

 

Reese Courtney

Zar Walker

Christian Arberry

Dillon Graham

 

I think that despite #5 Zar Walker’s ranking, he will easily be contending for a title this year, and this matchup between him and #1 Reese Courtney should be viewed as such a caliber of match. I don’t see the finals being any other wrestler, so this will most likely be going down. Reese Courtney has really elevated levels this past year, which his Al Smith title from last year and his runner-up performance proves. Walker, on the other hand, while still having great results, has slightly underperformed at his last Al Smith tournament, as well as the state tournament. This match is a question of whether Walker brings his peak performance, because that version of Walker can definitely beat Courtney. I think Courtney is the safer and more probable pick here, but be ready for a great match. 3rd and 4th is #6 Christian Arberry and #7 Dillon Graham, in some order. Arberry beat Graham 3-2 earlier this season, and Graham has quite a few losses this year, although these losses are all to wrestlers ranked higher than him, and some of these losses are actually indicators that Graham can do some real damage in this bracket, for example, his 4-2 loss to Courtney and his 7-4 loss to Walker. That being said, I think that Arberry wins another razor close match, but if Graham can finally breakthrough and pick up a higher ranked win, it will set him up nicely for the post season. I predict the rest of the field to be a tier below the wrestlers ranked above, but #9 Brody Hagewood is a returning state qualifier, giving him some credibility to pull an upset if he has improved since last season.

 

150 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Wyatt Krejsa

#5 Wesley Harper

#10 Evan Cruz

#12 Brock Hagewood

#14 Chase Kasprzak

#16 Caydn Smith

#19 Aaron Durham

 

Predictions:

 

Wyatt Krejsa

Wesley Harper

Evan Cruz

Brock Hagewood

 

#1 Wyatt Krejsa is another wrestler at this tournament that I would consider a lock. He had a super impressive Ironman run that saw him upset the #5 ranked wrestler in the country, and has picked up some other impressive wins since his runner-up performance at state last year, including Kyrel Leavell and Brady Ison. The question at this weight class is who will be 2nd, and I was really close to placing #10 Evan Cruz here, taking a very good Tommy Gibbs to a 1-0 loss at the Carnahan this year, and having good history at this tournament in prior years. However, last year, I overlooked #5 Wesley Harper at this tournament, leaving him out of the top 4, and he proved my predictions wrong with an upset over state placer Josh Johnson in the quarterfinals and a competitive match with Zar Walker before injury defaulting out of the tournament. I should also mention that he beat Reese Courtney the weekend after, which is an extremely impressive win, and one that Cruz does not own a similar caliber of, so I think Harper will beat Cruz in a close match. #12 Brock Hagewood is a solid 4th place pick for me. There are a couple of other state ranked wrestlers in the field, including #14 Chase Kasprzak and #16 Cadyn Smith, who have previous history at this tournament, but Hagewood is a state qualifier and placed 6th at last year’s Al Smith, so I am comfortable with placing him at 4th.

 

157 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Mitchell Betz

#2 Beau Brabender

#4 Silas Stits

#5 Anthony Cashman

#6 Adrian Pellot

#7 Gavin Davis

#11 Kevon Russell

UR Griffin Van Tichelt

 

Predictions:

 

Mitchell Betz

Silas Stits

Beau Brabender

Anthony Cashman

 

This weight class is pretty insane, with 6 of the top 8 battling it out for an Al Smith title. The favorite here is #1 Mitchell Betz, who placed second last year at Al Smith, and has a win this off-season to #2 Beau Brabender. I actually think that #4 Silas Stits has what it takes to beat Brabender for the finals spot, and actually beat Brabender last year at Al Smith. It is worth noting that Al Smith was an underperformance last year for Brabender, and he went on to take 4th at state, while Stits lost Friday night. There are a lot of variables that could go into this match, but I think that Stits takes it if they meet in the semis. #5 Anthony Cashman has been solid in his descent to 157, aside from a hiccup to Silas Foster, who is a wild dark horse in Indiana right now. I think that this matchup between 4th placers will be extremely close, and I don’t really have a great reason to put Brabender over Cashman. It’s a 50/50 match to me, but I’ll take Brabender as the higher ranked wrestler. #6 Adrian Pellot is a returning state placer as well, but I think that this weight class is a bit too deep for me to confidently predict an upset here. #7 Gavin Davis lost Friday night last year, but I think it should be interesting to note that he beat Brabender at Al Smith last year. As said previously, this performance from Brabender seemed to be a low point last season, and the better version of Brabender will compete better in this match. An unranked wrestler I want to mention is Griffin Van Tichelt, who will obviously be ranked once the rankings are updated. He is up from 132, and has two close losses on the season to Mason Day, but he is a solid wrestler that can do some damage, and will do some damage once he adjusts to this new weight class.

 

165 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Anthony Rinehart

#2 Waylon Cressell

#3 Duke Myers

#6 Evan Roudebush

#11 Michael Mavros

#14 Deaglan Pleak

#15 Sean Breedlove

#17 Ethan Smith

#18 Blake Wahl

#20 Marques Young

 

Predictions:

 

Anthony Rinehart

Waylon Cressell

Duke Myers

Evan Roudebush

 

165 is yet another loaded weight class, with the top 3 in attendance, along with 7 other state ranked wrestlers to leave at least two state ranked wrestlers off of the podium. The finals here is a big one, and a really big question mark match. #2 Waylon Cressell is a transfer from North Dakota, and has been relatively untested this season, although he did beat #5 (at 175) Bray Emerine, proving that he is a legitimate title contender. Cressell also placed 3rd at IHPO, losing only to Fargo champ Tristin Greene, although Rinehart has a win over this same wrestler, so it seems at this moment that Rinehart has the advantage. This win isn’t Rinehart’s only claim to be the better wrestler, spending time in the national rankings and placing at Ironman in 2022. That being said, this match should be very intriguing, and a great preview for the state finals. #3 Duke Myers is capable of spoiling this match, especially given that we don’t know exactly how good Cressell is yet. I don’t think the upset happens, but it is definitely possible. #6 Evan Roudebush is in a tier below the top 3, but is still a pretty confident lock for 4th. Two wrestlers that could challenge Roudebush is #11 Michael Mavros, who has improved rapidly this past season, and #14 Deaglan Pleak, who placed 8th at last year’s Al Smith, highlighted by a bloodround win over eventual 8th placer Conner Watts.

 

175 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Brenton Russell

#2 Aidan Costello

#3 Kyle Harden

#3 (at 190) Noah Clouser

#8 Chase Leech

#9 Cameron Crisp

#11 Zymarion Hollyfield

 

Predictions:

 

Noah Clouser

Brenton Russell

Aidan Costello

Kyle Harden

 

This weight class is very strong at the top, and it becomes even stronger with the addition of #3 Noah Clouser, who makes his descent from 190 (and enters as the #1 ranked wrestler at 175 in the newest set of rankings). Clouser had a great showing at Al Smith last year, taking 2nd and winning against #2 Aidan Costello and #3 Kyle Harden along the way. I think that Clouser can repeat this performance and win against both of these opponents again, but these matches last year were close, and both of them will be ready to pull of the upset. I think that #1 Brenton Russell is the one that makes it to the finals over both Costello and Harden. Costello beat Harden last year in the 5th place match at state, and Russell, although the highest returning placer in the field, is up from 160, while the rest of the top 4 wrestled this weight class last year, meaning that his experience against the field is limited. What shouldn’t be discounted, however, is the strength of his off season wins last year, picking up very notable wins over Mitchell Betz, Anthony Rinehart, and current #16 in the country Carson Thomas. Neither Costello or Harden have such a strong lost of wins, so I think Russell makes the finals. Somebody that I think could spoil any of these potential match is #8 Chase Leech, who is much better than his ranking might indicate, with not one, not two, not three, not four, but FIVE wins in the past year against Russell, as well as a win over last year’s 160 state runner-up Luke Kemper. While five wins over one of my predicted finalists might indicate that Leech should be in the top 4, but he has a loss to Costello last off season, and took a weird loss earlier in the year that dropped him in the rankings. I think a game Leech can potentially win this tournament, but for consistency’s sake, I’ll keep him out.

 

190 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#2 Luke Penola

#4 Vinny Freeman

#7 Kenneth Bisping

#13 Donovan Blair

#14 Austin Reading

#16 Aleksandar Tatum

 

Predictions:

 

Luke Penola

Vinny Freeman

Kenneth Bisping

Donovan Blair

 

I think that this weight class could be another lock, with #2 Luke Penola elevating levels this past year, taking 3rd at state, and picking up some impressive off season wins such as Gunner Henry and Reid Schroeder. #4 Vinny Freeman has proven himself as a dark horse though, placing 6th last year after being relatively unknown, but we will have to see if he can take it to Penola as the only returning placer in the field. #7 Kenneth Bisping is also a potential finals candidate, but has not yet made the podium. We will have to see if Bisping has grown levels since last year and can compete with the rapidly improving sophomore from Penn. The 4th place spot here goes to either #13 Donovan Blair, a state qualifier from Wawasee, #14 Austin Reading, a sophomore from Crown Point who has found his way in a very tough Crown Point lineup, and #16 Aleksandr Tatum, a freshman from Hobart who has posted solid results so far this season. I think that Tatum has been good this year, but has taken tough losses to both Freeman and Bisping this season. Reading, while a part of one of the best programs in the state, has yet to cement himself as one of Crown Point’s top threats, and I don’t feel confident yet picking him over Blair, who has already proven himself as a state quality wrestler.

 

215 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Will Clark

#3 Kaden McConnell

#4 Keegan Martin

#6 Devin Kendrex

#10 Jackson Weingart

#14 Everett Mcclelland

 

Predictions:

 

Will Clark

Kaden McConnell

Jackson Weingart

Keegan Martin

 

Can anybody stop #1 Will Clark? He has been one of the most dominant wrestlers in Indiana right now, and it doesn’t seem like anybody will stop him this year from claiming a second state title. #3 Kaden McConnell is the biggest threat to Clark here, taking 2nd last year at state, and posting solid results since then, including a 3-2 performance at Ironman. I don’t think he’s quite ready to pull the upset, but he is certainly the favorite to meet him in the finals. The 3rd and 4th place spots go to either #4 Keegan Martin, #6 Devin Kendrex, and #10 Jackson Weingart. Kendrex and Weingart have been on the podium before, but Martin had a 3rd place finish at the Al Smith last year that included wins over both Kendrex and Weingart. Kendrex did beat Martin Friday night, so he has the most recent win. However, Kendrex lost the last two matches to Weingart, so making a solid prediction here will be tough. I’m going to go with Weingart as the third place finisher. His match with Martin for 3rd at last year’s Al Smith was highly competitive, and he has been wrestling great otherwise. Additionally, he has a 5-4 loss with McConnell this season, showing that he has great potential to contend with even McConnell and Clark. Keegan Martin, despite having the loss at state to Kendrex, has picked up wins over much of the field, and has been more consistent than Kendrex, who has taken a couple tougher losses than Martin.

 

285 Ranked Wrestlers:

 

#1 Paul Clark

#5 Hosia Smith

#7 Anthony Popi

#15 Luke Juris

#16 Ethan Dodson

#19 Triston Meschede

UR Nate Johnson

 

Predictions:

 

Paul Clark

Hosia Smith

Anthony Popi

Nate Johnson

 

I want to say that #1 Paul Clark is a lock here, and I still definitely think he’s the favorite, but #5 Hosia Smith is a dangerous heavyweight that is most certainly a state title contender. His state run last year ended early with a semi-state upset loss, but he did take a win over eventual state champ Leighton Jones, showing that he can pick up wins of that level, which he will most certainly need to beat Clark. For 3rd, I’m going with #7 Anthony Popi, who I think is a pretty solid lock for 3rd, as a state qualifier that has shown real promise for a podium run this year with a 3-2 loss to #2 Brady Beck. There are several state ranked wrestlers in the field that could contend for 4th, but one wrestler in particular that is interesting here is Nate Johnson, who has been behind #4 Tyler Schott in Center Grove’s lineup, but is a two time state qualifier that will be wrestling with a fire under himself, hoping to eventually win the roster battle and claim a spot on the podium. Challenging Johnson will be #15 Luke Juris, who had a close 3-2 with Popi earlier this year, #16 Ethan Dodson, a senior from Fort Wayne Snider who will have his first big test of the season at Al Smith, and #19 Triston Meschede, who’s had some competitive matches with tough wrestlers at this weight, including a 3-2 loss to Juris and a 5-2 loss to #3 Aramis McNutt. I don’t think any of these wrestlers quite have the pedigree yet to beat Johnson, so I will lock in Johnson for 4th.

 

Nice, nice. Kendi Quoi 138 from Snider is ranked #14.  Hopefully after this tournament you won't forget him.  Ethan Dodson is underrated and I'll leave it at that.

[Y2CJ41]

Some changes this morning

Tishner at 120

Both Fraziers out

Harden out

[Beavman10]

Brackets are out

[Y2CJ41]

106 has a slight issue at the 7 seed that should be fixed soon. Tun should be the 7 seed, but the names didn't get switched.

[TysonNisley]

Couple interesting things at the heavier weights:

 

190: Vinny Freeman out

HWT: Hosia Smith vs Paul Clark happening in the semis.

[awill0352]

Is Freeman in El Paso or injured? 

[ontherise219]

Man 2 tough unseeded Warren Central kids got really tough draws first match. Could shake the brackets up early or make a run in the back side 

 

 

who will be the Al smith Break out wrestler? 

[Y2CJ41]

20 minutes ago, awill0352 said:

Is Freeman in El Paso or injured? 

He's in El Paso

[Fletch]

Thank you for this in depth analysis and write-up!  No doubt this took some time and certainly provides some great insight.

[BrodyHardcastle]

Weingart vs Martin in the quarters, ouch.

[TrueRegionFan]

3 hours ago, ontherise219 said:

Man 2 tough unseeded Warren Central kids got really tough draws first match. Could shake the brackets up early or make a run in the back side 

 

 

who will be the Al smith Break out wrestler? 

Especially at 126.  Tell me something @ontherise219, how does the #2 ranked kid in the state get seeded 6th in an in-state tournament like the Al Smith?

[Thor]

4 hours ago, TrueRegionFan said:

Especially at 126.  Tell me something @ontherise219, how does the #2 ranked kid in the state get seeded 6th in an in-state tournament like the Al Smith?

I’m guessing it’s cause he has three losses and no previous state series experience. 

[BrodyHardcastle]

What time does day 2 start? I always thought day 1 was 10 am and day 2 was 9 am. I am going to make the drive tomorrow and don’t want to miss any good wrestling lol. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by BrodyHardcastle

[TrueRegionFan]

5 hours ago, Thor said:

I’m guessing it’s cause he has three losses and no previous state series experience. 

Could be, but his losses have come from the Ironman where his two losses were to place winners.  One of them to the #4 kid in the nation.  He also lost at the Carnahan to the #10 ranked kid in the nation 3-2 I believe.  He did beat the Michigan state champ at the Carnahan and #3 in the state Braylon Reynolds. 

 

I guess when it comes to seeding in Indiana tournaments it is harmful to teams and wrestlers that compete in national events.  CP, Brownsburg and Center Grove will have state champs this year that will have 3-4 losses.

 

My point is to apply common sense.  If you are going to rank a kid #2 in the state, why would you seed #9, #10, #11, #14 and #18 in the state ahead of him?  Either the rankings are flawed, or the seeding criteria is flawed. That's all.

[Bashin142]

Is this tourney going to be stream anywhere?

[Barn Burner]

49 minutes ago, TrueRegionFan said:

Could be, but his losses have come from the Ironman where his two losses were to place winners.  One of them to the #4 kid in the nation.  He also lost at the Carnahan to the #10 ranked kid in the nation 3-2 I believe.  He did beat the Michigan state champ at the Carnahan and #3 in the state Braylon Reynolds. 

 

I guess when it comes to seeding in Indiana tournaments it is harmful to teams and wrestlers that compete in national events.  CP, Brownsburg and Center Grove will have state champs this year that will have 3-4 losses.

 

My point is to apply common sense.  If you are going to rank a kid #2 in the state, why would you seed #9, #10, #11, #14 and #18 in the state ahead of him?  Either the rankings are flawed, or the seeding criteria is flawed. That's all.

 

Dude, if you're that good...... just Win! It doesn't matter seed when you're really freaking good. 

[Brandon Barton]

What happened to CG 215? 

Edited December 29, 2023 by Brandon Barton

[Caleb Spires]

10 hours ago, TrueRegionFan said:

Especially at 126.  Tell me something @ontherise219, how does the #2 ranked kid in the state get seeded 6th in an in-state tournament like the Al Smith?

I like you calling out and interrogating ontherise by @ as if he was in charge of seeding.

[TrueRegionFan]

4 minutes ago, Caleb Spires said:

I like you calling out and interrogating ontherise by @ as if he was in charge of seeding.

Wasn't calling @ontherise219 out.  If it reads that way, my mistake.  I'm aware he isn't in charge of seeding.  Mike is a great guy and knows what is going on.  I was just emphasizing his claim that WC was getting tough draws in the first round with two of their wrestlers.

[Caleb Spires]

2 hours ago, TrueRegionFan said:

Wasn't calling @ontherise219 out.  If it reads that way, my mistake.  I'm aware he isn't in charge of seeding.  Mike is a great guy and knows what is going on.  I was just emphasizing his claim that WC was getting tough draws in the first round with two of their wrestlers.

My apologies, I misread your intent and can see what you meant now.

[AnonymousLeprechaun0125]

Someone please let me know when day 2 starts. I haven’t been to the Al Smith since I wrestled in it, with it being so deep this would be a great time for me to tune in! 

[CainBones]

6 hours ago, TrueRegionFan said:

Could be, but his losses have come from the Ironman where his two losses were to place winners.  One of them to the #4 kid in the nation.  He also lost at the Carnahan to the #10 ranked kid in the nation 3-2 I believe.  He did beat the Michigan state champ at the Carnahan and #3 in the state Braylon Reynolds. 

 

I guess when it comes to seeding in Indiana tournaments it is harmful to teams and wrestlers that compete in national events.  CP, Brownsburg and Center Grove will have state champs this year that will have 3-4 losses.

 

My point is to apply common sense.  If you are going to rank a kid #2 in the state, why would you seed #9, #10, #11, #14 and #18 in the state ahead of him?  Either the rankings are flawed, or the seeding criteria is flawed. That's all.

It is difficult to try and seed everyone correctly. 

It turns into a college football situation when you have teams/coaches that purposely pad their records with bad teams to make it into bowl games and the tournament. Then there is always the “quality loss” argument. 
 

At the end of the day the kids/programs that are better and continue to seek out good competition will place well and continue to win. Sometimes you just have to be the better guy despite seeding!

[GrecoSupreme]

Day 2 championship bracket picks:  
106 Jones, Jessup, Bissmeyer, Thrasher

113 Lewis, Bayliss, Harper, Swathwood

120 Larocca, Jendreas, Tishner, Aubin, 

126 Bragg, Hawkins, Brown, Bennett

132 Goss, Demarco, Rivera, Fielden 

138 Leavell,Shephard, Smith, Dews

144 Courtney, Walker, Arberry, Graham  

150 Kresja, Hagewood, Harper, Smith 

157 Betz, Brabender, Pellot, Cashman

165 Rinehart, Cressell, Roudebush,Myers

175 Costello, Russell, Clouser, Leech,

190 Penola, Bisping, Blair, Mendez 

215 Clark, Kendrex, Weingart, Martin

285 Clark, Johnson, Smith, Popi

 

[bravegrappler1992]

157 - Status on Gavin Davis of Bellmont?