Wrestling Scholar Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 (edited) I saw the post of Indiana vs Kentucky State Champs. I see Joe and others mentioned we should be comparing ourselves are real wrestling neighbors OH and IL. Of course these states are encumbered and dirtied by their classification system. Yes Im talking Class wrestling. Its a dirty word in Indiana, but they don't know any better in the Buckeye state and the Land of Lincoln. Even though Ohio Is starting they're State tournament this week, they really don't arrive at the end result of a state champ in the sense of what Indiana has. So we cant compare state champs since they don't have any. But we can compare their ranked wreslters to our state champions. Its not comparing Apples to Apples, but its like comparing our fruit to their vegatables. Here we go: 106 #4 Lucas Bird (OH) vs Curtis- Result:- Ohio's Bird by pin 113 #9 Gabe Tagg (OH) vs Viduya- Result: Major Dec by Tagg 120 #10 OU Recruit Tommy Hoskins (OH) vs Cayden Rooks Result: Hoskins by Dec- Rooks might be able to keep it under 7 126 #11OSU Recruit Jordan Decatur vs Alec White Result: Decatur by Major- White wrestles gutsy, might also keep it under 7 132 # 3 VT recruit Mitch Moore Vs #12 Breyden Baily Result - St Paris Graham Jordan trained Moore is too much for Bailey- Easy Decision for Moore 138 #11 Ohio U recruit Moises Guillen vs Brendan Black Result: Guillen edges the tough Black by Decision 145 #8 OU recruit Dominick Demas vs #6 Brayten Lee Result: This is a tossup, but Im going with Demas by OT win. 152 #4 OSU recruit Jaden Mattox vs #152 Joe Lee Result: Another close one, but Mattox wins 160 #6 CSU recruit Georgio Poulas vs Laughlin Result: Major Decision by Poulas 170 #1 OSU recruit Kaleb Romero vs Stock Result: This is the biggest mismatch- Pin by Romero 182 #9 Air Force recruit James Handwerk vs Grey Result: Major Decision by Handwerk 195 Anthony Perrine Vs #8Andrew Davison Result: Davison by Major- Davison is best all around wrestler in IN too much for any State champ in 3 classes in OH 220 #5 Mizzou Grad Jared Campbell Vs #3 Mason Parris Result: Another toss up, But I think Mason gets one his patented doubles on Campbell and wins by a decision HWY#9 Boise State recruit Kevin Vough vs Evan Ellis Result: Ellis looked good, but good enough Vough. Ellis looses by a Major Summary: Even though Ohio is handicapped by "Class wrestling", somehow they seem to develop great wrestlers. That just doesn't make logical sense, how could Class wrestling do that? I think only 4 indiana wrestlers would have a shot, with Indiana winning two of those. Davison is the only clear favorite. On a side note, looks like OSU is doing a good job of keeping top talent in state. Edited February 20, 2017 by Wrestling Scholar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westforkwhite Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I think your analysis of the match ups is spot on but your equating class wrestling as the reason OH and IL have better wrestlers at the top is a bit of a stretch. IL is double IN's population and OH nearly so. Both IL and OH had more wrestlers participating before they classed than they do now. (So did PA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navy80 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I think population in the state is a factor. Also, population of high school wrestlers compared to the number of high school wrestlers in Indiana. Ohio also has Jeff Jordan and his camp which brings kids from all over the country to workout with him. They always have traditional powerhouse teams etc. I think ohio beats us like we beat Kentucky. 10-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I think your analysis of the match ups is spot on but your equating class wrestling as the reason OH and IL have better wrestlers at the top is a bit of a stretch. IL is double IN's population and OH nearly so. Both IL and OH had more wrestlers participating before they classed than they do now. (So did PA) HOLD UP! You say population matters...but yet school size doesn't? We just need to work harder, right? WrestleMan and DrSugarBritches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
base Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I think it's funny that you somehow make the stretch with this post that because they have a large number of great INDIVIDUAL wrestlers, that class wrestling clearly doesn't hurt Ohio. Did any of these guys join wrestling because it is classed? I don't think any single class proponents are saying class wrestling will "hurt" Indiana wrestling talent overall. However, it is up for debate whether or not it would promote and thereby increase the level of wrestling across the state by encouraging more small school kids to wrestle (because they now have a better percentage chance of getting a state championship without the big school guys in their brackets) And yet after suggesting that class wrestling is a good thing, what do you do when you want to compare the state -- you take the best wrestlers from all classes as your example. In essence, you are presenting a single class list of Ohio wrestlers versus our single class. MCKAJC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony McGinley Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Wrestling Scholar, Sorry I gotta give my guy some more re credit. Bailey has already faced Mitch Moore twice. He did lose both times, but it was only 5-3 at scholastic duals, & 2-1 at Grand River Rumble. So to say it's an easy decision for Mitch & Moore's too much for Bailey, I have to beg the differ. We're right there in his ballpark to beat him. Same w/ Zack Donanthan... we lost to him this year by one, he's one rank behind Moore. Good day. cabailey4 and aoberlin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestling Scholar Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 Wrestling Scholar, Sorry I gotta give my guy some more re credit. Bailey has already faced Mitch Moore twice. He did lose both times, but it was only 5-3 at scholastic duals, & 2-1 at Grand River Rumble. So to say it's an easy decision for Mitch & Moore's too much for Bailey, I have to beg the differ. We're right there in his ballpark to beat him. Same w/ Zack Donanthan... we lost to him this year by one, he's one rank behind Moore. Good day. Based on that information, Ill give change it to close decision by Moore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontherise219 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I saw the post of Indiana vs Kentucky State Champs. I see Joe and others mentioned we should be comparing ourselves are real wrestling neighbors OH and IL. Of course these states are encumbered and dirtied by their classification system. Yes Im talking Class wrestling. Its a dirty word in Indiana, but they don't know any better in the Buckeye state and the Land of Lincoln. Even though Ohio Is starting they're State tournament this week, they really don't arrive at the end result of a state champ in the sense of what Indiana has. So we cant compare state champs since they don't have any. But we can compare their ranked wreslters to our state champions. Its not comparing Apples to Apples, but its like comparing our fruit to their vegatables. Here we go: 106 #4 Lucas Bird (OH) vs Curtis- Result:- Ohio's Bird by pin 113 #9 Gabe Tagg (OH) vs Viduya- Result: Major Dec by Tagg 120 #10 OU Recruit Tommy Hoskins (OH) vs Cayden Rooks Result: Hoskins by Dec- Rooks might be able to keep it under 7 126 #11OSU Recruit Jordan Decatur vs Alec White Result: Decatur by Major- White wrestles gutsy, might also keep it under 7 132 # 3 VT recruit Mitch Moore Vs #12 Breyden Baily Result - St Paris Graham Jordan trained Moore is too much for Bailey- Easy Decision for Moore 138 #11 Ohio U recruit Moises Guillen vs Brendan Black Result: Guillen edges the tough Black by Decision 145 #8 OU recruit Dominick Demas vs #6 Brayten Lee Result: This is a tossup, but Im going with Demas by OT win. 152 #4 OSU recruit Jaden Mattox vs #152 Joe Lee Result: Another close one, but Mattox wins 160 #6 CSU recruit Georgio Poulas vs Laughlin Result: Major Decision by Poulas 170 #1 OSU recruit Kaleb Romero vs Stock Result: This is the biggest mismatch- Pin by Romero 182 #9 Air Force recruit James Handwerk vs Grey Result: Major Decision by Handwerk 195 Anthony Perrine Vs #8Andrew Davison Result: Davison by Major- Davison is best all around wrestler in IN too much for any State champ in 3 classes in OH 220 #5 Mizzou Grad Jared Campbell Vs #3 Mason Parris Result: Another toss up, But I think Mason gets one his patented doubles on Campbell and wins by a decision HWY#9 Boise State recruit Kevin Vough vs Evan Ellis Result: Ellis looked good, but good enough Vough. Ellis looses by a Major Summary: Even though Ohio is handicapped by "Class wrestling", somehow they seem to develop great wrestlers. That just doesn't make logical sense, how could Class wrestling do that? I think only 4 indiana wrestlers would have a shot, with Indiana winning two of those. Davison is the only clear favorite. On a side note, looks like OSU is doing a good job of keeping top talent in state. I'm torn you have basiclly all Indiana champs getting throttled but the one you do have winning are Ec semi state kids plus Paris MCKAJC and throw45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKAJC Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I think it's funny that you somehow make the stretch with this post that because they have a large number of great INDIVIDUAL wrestlers, that class wrestling clearly doesn't hurt Ohio. Did any of these guys join wrestling because it is classed? I don't think any single class proponents are saying class wrestling will "hurt" Indiana wrestling talent overall. However, it is up for debate whether or not it would promote and thereby increase the level of wrestling across the state by encouraging more small school kids to wrestle (because they now have a better percentage chance of getting a state championship without the big school guys in their brackets) And yet after suggesting that class wrestling is a good thing, what do you do when you want to compare the state -- you take the best wrestlers from all classes as your example. In essence, you are presenting a single class list of Ohio wrestlers versus our single class. Very well stated. I also couldn't make the leap of faith required to assume class wrestling could be a factor in greater participation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestling Scholar Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 (edited) I'm torn you have basiclly all Indiana champs getting throttled but the one you do have winning are Ec semi state kids plus ParisI Maybe the Lees would be good matchups. You could say Breyton is slightly favored over Demas. Flo has Breyton at #4 and Demas at #7. I wonder if there's a history. Flo has Mattox at #4 and Joe Lee at #13. So two rankings favor Mattox so you would have to go with him. Bailey lost to Moore twice but very close. Both are ranked. Flo has Ohio wrestler Campbell at #4 and Paris at #5 so that match sounds like a tossup. Have those guys wrestled? I don't have everybody getting throttled. But winning 2 to 3 matches would be the likely result for Indiana. Edited February 20, 2017 by Wrestling Scholar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENoblewrestling Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I think population in the state is a factor. Also, population of high school wrestlers compared to the number of high school wrestlers in Indiana. Ohio also has Jeff Jordan and his camp which brings kids from all over the country to workout with him. They always have traditional powerhouse teams etc. I think ohio beats us like we beat Kentucky. 10-4 This post had me wonder how the populations of wrestlers vs total population of the state looks. From 2014. Indiana Ohio Illinois Population 6.597 Million 11.59 Million 12.88Million Wrestlers 7,512 11,433 16,022 navy80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westforkwhite Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 (edited) HOLD UP! You say population matters...but yet school size doesn't? We just need to work harder, right? We are looking at this from totally different angles. You believe each "school" should have an equal chance regardless of how few students that respective school has. Which means you believe 12% of the population should have 33% of its success. I on the other hand am evaluating what the statistical probability a boy "student" would have to qualify or place. Which suggests proportionate representation in qualifiers (slightly above) and a less than proportionate share of placers (low, but not as far off when you apply the entrant factor of 82%) Edited February 20, 2017 by Westforkwhite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU89 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Jole Lee would smoke Mattox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 We are looking at this from totally different angles. You believe each "school" should have an equal chance regardless of how few students that respective school has. Which means you believe 12% of the population should have 33% of its success. I on the other hand am evaluating what the statistical probability a boy "student" would have to qualify or place. Which suggests proportionate representation in qualifiers (slightly above) and a less than proportionate share of placers (low, but not as far off when you apply the entrant factor of 82%)The percentages get worse as you thin the field further. Shouldn't they at least come close to being standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestling Scholar Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 Jole Lee would smoke Mattox Flowrestling doesn't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BB145 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Flowrestling doesn't think so. Do they have any common opponents? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westforkwhite Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 The percentages get worse as you thin the field further. Shouldn't they at least come close to being standard. I think a major factor in the lack of placers is the abundance of multi sport athletes in 1A is disproportionate to the other classes. I'm not saying work harder, I'm saying that you can't expect to have to success of an athlete whose sole focus is wrestling, when you spread yourself over 3 sports. Placers represent an elite group of wrestlers, and your numbers show that as a whole the kids placing are specializing in one sport. Are you in essence saying that 1A kids shouldn't have to dedicate themselves to one sport yet should have equal success with kids that do? There are a lot of benefits to competing in multiple sports, and kids should always have the option to play more than one sport if they so choose, but there are sacrifices when you make that choice. You can't expect to have the same level of success (on average) as the kids that wrestle year round. The multi sport kids gets to have new and different experiences with their other teams, and the year round wrestler has to sacrifice those experiences to achieve success on the highest level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestling Scholar Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 Do they have any common opponents? Lee did lose twice this summer to David Carr from Massilon Perry, OH albeit freestyle. Carr is ranked 5th on intermit behind Mattox whose ranked 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grecoref Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I think your analysis of the match ups is spot on but your equating class wrestling as the reason OH and IL have better wrestlers at the top is a bit of a stretch. IL is double IN's population and OH nearly so. Both IL and OH had more wrestlers participating before they classed than they do now. (So did PA) Ohio went to two classes in 1971 and to three classes in 1976. I would be interested to see the participation numbers from prior to 1971 and 1976. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westforkwhite Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 (edited) There are years missing from the data in 69-76, and I couldn't find any data prior. It would be interesting to see. OH and PA 30K wrestlers back in 76 and now PA has 9K and OH has 11K. Edited February 21, 2017 by Westforkwhite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 They had 30K wrestlers in 1976, now they have 11KHow many high school students in those respective years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westforkwhite Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Population of OH has increased since 1976, but I couldn't find exact #s on how many kids were in grades 9-12 looking backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westforkwhite Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I took the data for 16 states from the NFHS report and added to an excel document. I added the state populations to a few respective years to demonstrate the participation rate. (Ideally I would have used HS enrollment #s but unfortunately I couldn't track them down for all states, and wanted to have uniform data to compare) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HNBS484FDpdlZkoTzRwNW3A5whhDcaxSDx8n4l4KeCE/edit?usp=sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westforkwhite Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Here are the participation rates (population/not students) Example: IN has 7300 wrestlers in HS, and a population of 6.6M thus the participation rate is = .114% State 1976 1989 2006 2015 California 0.122% 0.072% 0.065% 0.068% Florida 0.074% 0.055% 0.042% 0.041% Georgia 0.132% 0.069% 0.079% 0.082% Illinois 0.193% 0.136% 0.121% 0.117% Indiana 0.223% 0.178% 0.129% 0.114% Iowa 0.431% 0.263% 0.241% 0.218% Kansas 0.207% 0.182% 0.191% 0.171% Michigan 0.199% 0.113% 0.119% 0.095% Minnesota 0.318% 0.168% 0.149% 0.149% Missouri 0.257% 0.143% 0.118% 0.112% New Jersey 0.191% 0.135% 0.099% 0.109% New York 0.102% 0.074% 0.067% 0.069% Ohio 0.293% 0.153% 0.115% 0.096% Pennsylvania 0.263% 0.132% 0.070% 0.077% Washington 0.261% 0.179% 0.131% 0.106% Wisconsin 0.437% 0.169% 0.135% 0.124% As you can see we are 3rd out of 16 in terms of rate of participation from the general populous. Outpacing OH, PA, NJ & NY in terms rate of participation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Interestingly looking at Ohio in 1978 they had 919 schools with wrestling and over 32,000 wrestlers. IN 1979 it was...580 schools and 20,000 wrestlers. That is quite a dropoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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