2023 Al Smith Predictions and Analysis

[rrschott]

13 hours ago, frigginhurts said:

Noticed Johnson has pinned all 3 opponents in less than 30 seconds.    CG has 2 of the best 285s in the state if Johnson is not full time varsity.   Did he get beat out by an underclassmen?

Long story, but they're both seniors and splitting time until the wrestle off.  The one that stayed home for the Al Smith is the current #4 in the state who's currently 18-2 with 15 pins (and the two losses were at the Iron Man).  CG has a stacked room, and it's still getting better.

[GenHeavyHandz]

1 hour ago, TysonNisley said:

Underrated is right, 1-0 over Hosia Smith in the consi semis.

Thanks: some think I’m biased, and to a degree I am.  But when I post something I’m serious and I use my 38 years of wrestling experience to make an analysis.  Dodson never has wrestled in the off season.  If he had focused on wrestling as much as football he’d would’ve already been on your radar. 

[GrecoSupreme]

Al Smith finals starting….

“Oh My Goss”

Who has a photo of that stare down? 

[TrueRegionFan]

On 12/29/2023 at 10:07 AM, Barn Burner said:

 

Dude, if you're that good...... just Win! It doesn't matter seed when you're really freaking good. 

Dude, that 6 seed did just win....10-0 in the finals....because he really is that freaking good!

[blueandgold]

9 hours ago, TrueRegionFan said:

Dude, that 6 seed did just win....10-0 in the finals....because he really is that freaking good!

I can’t lie, I was mostly bored with that match and felt Bragg was the aggressor despite giving up the first takedown, but LT scoring another takedown and then turning him twice all within forty seconds took the excitement meter up for me, and I was extremely impressed.

[M109R]

On 12/28/2023 at 7:32 PM, TysonNisley said:

Couple interesting things at the heavier weights:

 

190: Vinny Freeman out

HWT: Hosia Smith vs Paul Clark happening in the semis.

Penn was without Freeman and Hollyfield. Thinking we could of challenged for 3rd place with those 2 wrestling . 

[Silence Dogood]

Some things I was thinking I'd see discussion on if not for the indianamat blackout... 

 

Stalling in 2OT to decide the match in the finals at 144

 

The faceoff at 132, plus post-match shenanigans

 

Brown up 2 on Hawkins and in control until the last 10 seconds

 

Shepherd with a close call TD to win

 

 

 

[Y2CJ41]

20 hours ago, TrueRegionFan said:

Dude, that 6 seed did just win....10-0 in the finals....because he really is that freaking good!

Amazing that a ranking set that utilizes more criteria was more accurate than one that utilizes much less criteria.

 

No one in the seed meeting was really that surprised that Hawkins won.

[Y2CJ41]

2 minutes ago, Silence Dogood said:

Some things I was thinking I'd see discussion on if not for the indianamat blackout... 

 

Stalling in 2OT to decide the match in the finals at 144

 

The faceoff at 132, plus post-match shenanigans

 

Brown up 2 on Hawkins and in control until the last 10 seconds

 

Shepherd with a close call TD to win

 

 

 

After two long days in the gym,  I wanted everyone to spend quality time with their families. Just the small things we do at IndianaMat for everyone including deprived wives and kids.

[brickfor6]

#1 ranked kid lost at 120, 138, 157, and 175

 

(Brickies upset 2 of them.)  

 

#1 144 wins in OT in the finals, decided on a stall. That ref is awful

 

#1 215 squeezed one out in the semis, ref was too slow to call swipes when he was on his back….

 

[blueandgold]

Finals Impressions

106: Jones looked solid and he looks like a true title contender in the always open 106 class.

113: Lewis looked good out there, but I’m interested to see how he looks against Rioux, Dickman, etc.

120: Jendreas looked like he’s a lock for 120 honestly. He had four straight technical falls including one in the finals over the kid who upset the #1 ranked wrestler and returning champion. He honestly reminded me of when Brayton Lee and Jesse Mendez the way he was turning it up on his feet. His hand fighting and motion were supreme.

126: The match wasn’t that exciting. Bragg seemed like the aggressor for five of the six minutes despite giving up a takedown, but LT showed how wide the gap was and how talented he is with his eight-point sequence in the last forty seconds or so to earn the major.

132: DeMarco and Goss in a tense match up offered a lot of fireworks between state medalists, but DeMarco looked extremely polished out there.

138: Despite the loss, Kyrel looked good. With that being said, Clinton Shephard has made a name for himself beating the #1 and #2 in the last few weeks and looks to carry that momentum through the remainder of the season.

144: Arberry looked good in this match and the gap between he and Courtney isn’t that wide based on this match, but things can change quickly over the course of a month. However, that match looked like it was Arberry’s, but losing on a stall is awful. 
150: Big Wyatt looked dominant.

157: Brabender looked good and is likely the new #1, but Pellot will be looking to get that match back at Semi-State.

165: Cressell virtually hadn’t been touched all year, and even with Rinehart managing to squeak by with a one-point decision, I still can’t call the Crown Point junior a lock. Cressell was more aggressive on his feet, and should he finish that single, this match could be a different tune in February, but as always, they both have to make it there first.

175: These two battled, but the Brickie turned up. Looking to see how my fellow Region Rat carries this momentum going forward.

190: Penola looked very good. I’m excited to see how he performs going forward and eager to see a match with he and Gunner Henry.

215: BIG WILL CLARK. He might be my favorite wrestler right now. Despite his crazy semis result, he turned the dominance back up in the final and is looking like he can’t be touched. Curious to see how he makes adjustments should he see Weingart again.

285: This is the match I personally waited on all day. I enjoy both light heavyweight and heavyweight wrestling at both 215 and 285, but the biggest boys have been bringing the pain lately. Center Grove has a good problem to have in the fact that they have two state qualifying heavyweights, but it sucks knowing one won’t wrestle the postseason. Nate Johnson is always tough and I was curious to see how he fared against Paul Clark as he managed to pin his way to the finals, but BIG PAULIE C proved how wide the gap is by being able to score a pin from the top position. I feel like we don’t see that often at heavyweight, but I’m glad he’s showing how it’s done up north.

 

[TrueRegionFan]

42 minutes ago, blueandgold said:

Finals Impressions

106: Jones looked solid and he looks like a true title contender in the always open 106 class.

113: Lewis looked good out there, but I’m interested to see how he looks against Rioux, Dickman, etc.

120: Jendreas looked like he’s a lock for 120 honestly. He had four straight technical falls including one in the finals over the kid who upset the #1 ranked wrestler and returning champion. He honestly reminded me of when Brayton Lee and Jesse Mendez the way he was turning it up on his feet. His hand fighting and motion were supreme.

126: The match wasn’t that exciting. Bragg seemed like the aggressor for five of the six minutes despite giving up a takedown, but LT showed how wide the gap was and how talented he is with his eight-point sequence in the last forty seconds or so to earn the major.

132: DeMarco and Goss in a tense match up offered a lot of fireworks between state medalists, but DeMarco looked extremely polished out there.

138: Despite the loss, Kyrel looked good. With that being said, Clinton Shephard has made a name for himself beating the #1 and #2 in the last few weeks and looks to carry that momentum through the remainder of the season.

144: Arberry looked good in this match and the gap between he and Courtney isn’t that wide based on this match, but things can change quickly over the course of a month. However, that match looked like it was Arberry’s, but losing on a stall is awful. 
150: Big Wyatt looked dominant.

157: Brabender looked good and is likely the new #1, but Pellot will be looking to get that match back at Semi-State.

165: Cressell virtually hadn’t been touched all year, and even with Rinehart managing to squeak by with a one-point decision, I still can’t call the Crown Point junior a lock. Cressell was more aggressive on his feet, and should he finish that single, this match could be a different tune in February, but as always, they both have to make it there first.

175: These two battled, but the Brickie turned up. Looking to see how my fellow Region Rat carries this momentum going forward.

190: Penola looked very good. I’m excited to see how he performs going forward and eager to see a match with he and Gunner Henry.

215: BIG WILL CLARK. He might be my favorite wrestler right now. Despite his crazy semis result, he turned the dominance back up in the final and is looking like he can’t be touched. Curious to see how he makes adjustments should he see Weingart again.

285: This is the match I personally waited on all day. I enjoy both light heavyweight and heavyweight wrestling at both 215 and 285, but the biggest boys have been bringing the pain lately. Center Grove has a good problem to have in the fact that they have two state qualifying heavyweights, but it sucks knowing one won’t wrestle the postseason. Nate Johnson is always tough and I was curious to see how he fared against Paul Clark as he managed to pin his way to the finals, but BIG PAULIE C proved how wide the gap is by being able to score a pin from the top position. I feel like we don’t see that often at heavyweight, but I’m glad he’s showing how it’s done up north.

 

Agree with you, especially with your comments on Jendreas.  Gavin has always been a stud and title contender each year, but it absolutely looks like he has jumped to a new level.  

[blueandgold]

26 minutes ago, TrueRegionFan said:

Agree with you, especially with your comments on Jendreas.  Gavin has always been a stud and title contender each year, but it absolutely looks like he has jumped to a new level.  

There’s always that moment when you know a guy is up next. It was Jesse at Al Smith 2018, Brayton at Team State 2016, and both times I noticed how good they were on their feet and how adamant they were to get bonus points. Same with Gavin yesterday. He looks unrecognizable in comparison to the Gavin of the last two years.

[busstogate]

12 minutes ago, blueandgold said:

There’s always that moment when you know a guy is up next. It was Jesse at Al Smith 2018, Brayton at Team State 2016, and both times I noticed how good they were on their feet and how adamant they were to get bonus points. Same with Gavin yesterday. He looks unrecognizable in comparison to the Gavin of the last two years.

I would like to add in Brabender from Mishawaka.  He seems to have turned into the wrestler he was meant to be.  I am expecting him to win it all this year.

[Y2CJ41]

Final seeds and placements
The top 6 seeds were pretty strong and after that it was basically hit or miss. Usually after the top 6 we started hitting semi-state ticket rounders and winning percentage separation which are by far weaker compared to state placements and Al Smith placements.

 

Note 0 seed is unseeded

 

If you want something seeded in Indiana, there is only one place to call!

[rrschott]

18 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Final seeds and placements
The top 6 seeds were pretty strong and after that it was basically hit or miss. Usually after the top 6 we started hitting semi-state ticket rounders and winning percentage separation which are by far weaker compared to state placements and Al Smith placements.

 

Note 0 seed is unseeded

 

If you want something seeded in Indiana, there is only one place to call!

Kind of wild that exactly 0 of the 3 seeds actually finished 3rd.  Interestingly the 1 and 6 seeds seemed the most accurate.

[Y2CJ41]

4 minutes ago, rrschott said:

Kind of wild that exactly 0 of the 3 seeds actually finished 3rd.  Interestingly the 1 and 6 seeds seemed the most accurate.

The depth of the field creates a lot of those results. At the top we were very nit picky on seeding someone who was  4th in the state over someone 5th in the state and so on. 

[rrschott]

9 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

The depth of the field creates a lot of those results. At the top we were very nit picky on seeding someone who was  4th in the state over someone 5th in the state and so on. 

Yeah, it was just an interesting quirk that 0 3 seeds finished 3rd, yet 5 finished 2nd and 5 finished 4th, so it kind of averaged out.  

[CookieMonster99]

I'm kinda surprised no one has mentioned there was a lot of boos in the arena towards a ref during the quarters on Friday....

[ontherise219]

It was a excited crowd for sure! It added to the atmosphere 

[brickfor6]

4 hours ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Final seeds and placements
The top 6 seeds were pretty strong and after that it was basically hit or miss. Usually after the top 6 we started hitting semi-state ticket rounders and winning percentage separation which are by far weaker compared to state placements and Al Smith placements.

 

Note 0 seed is unseeded

 

If you want something seeded in Indiana, there is only one place to call!

 

[Y2CJ41]

Man 126 got dinged hard or Easley placing! 

[brickfor6]

1 hour ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Man 126 got dinged hard or Easley placing! 

smh

[Silence Dogood]

Did anyone have the $12 per person per day ticket price on their prediction list? 

[GenHeavyHandz]

On 12/28/2023 at 1:50 PM, GenHeavyHandz said:

Nice, nice. Kendi Quoi 138 from Snider is ranked #14.  Hopefully after this tournament you won't forget him.  Ethan Dodson is underrated and I'll leave it at that.

No lies detected. Prediction confirmed @GrecoSupreme what's so funny?