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ontherise219

The rankings going in to semi state

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Going over the stats the county stat guru @Indysportsfan has put together. 

We lock in the rankings before the state tournament every year. 280 wrestler enter the state tournament ranked. Which at the time of sectionals is just recognition of their season. We do not and will not adjust them.   Not for injury or bad draws. Of 240 ranked wrestlers we lost 7 going on to semi state. 

Thank you to everyone who has sent emails and messages. You are so important to the rankings. 

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Mike you and the other rankers always do a steller job with the information you receive.  But sometimes you don’t get enough info or the wrestler doesn’t face enough big names to make your list.   

Could you add some insight into the wrestlers who have flew under the rankings radar until this past weekend.  Wrestlers that didn’t make your final rankings or possibly even watch list, but have put themselves in a good situation at Semi-State due to a winning their Regional.   Those who have really improved their stock (Eli Stock pun intended).

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1 hour ago, ontherise219 said:

Going over the stats the county stat guru @Indysportsfan has put together. 

We lock in the rankings before the state tournament every year. 280 wrestler enter the state tournament ranked. Which at the time of sectionals is just recognition of their season. We do not and will not adjust them.   Not for injury or bad draws. Of 240 ranked wrestlers we lost 7 going on to semi state. 

Thank you to everyone who has sent emails and messages. You are so important to the rankings. 

It's amazing how well you do.Some people really just don't realize how good you are at this.Id really love to know what your overall percentage is of ranked wrestlers that had the possibility of going to state if we had wrestlebacks.i guess maybe the percentage of ranked wrestlers that get eliminated by another ranked wrestler. My whole point is when  a ranked wrestler is eliminated by another ranked wrestler then that hurts your percentages even tho their is nothing you could have done different. For example right now you have a max number of ranked guys that can make it to state due to drawing another ranked opponent and only 1 of them can go . In two matches alone you are gonna lose 2 guys that would more than likely place top 6 with probably any other draw in the state except for a very few. For example it is going to hurt your overall percentage when Mills/Willis and Egli/Garcia wrestles no matter who wins.Im trying to figure a way to find out what your possible percentage is and what your actual is but I am just not smart enough. I know what I think is the right way to do it but I can't. Maybe if a ranked wrestler wrestles a ranked wrestler, or if a wrestler moves out of state during tournament, or gets injured. Just the things that are out of your control or anyones control then just don't count that for you or against you. If we had wrestle backs I really think you would have a crazy high percentage. Very good job 

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Mike does an absolutely fantastic job with his rankings. It’s hard enough to compare the kids in a semi-state with one another; let alone comparing them with three other semi-state’s when they won’t often meet up until state. And year in and year out Mike kills it. 

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And if I remember right he doesn't pick his list off of how he thinks Semi-States will feed into state. Meaning he ranks from what he believes to be highest to lowest, even if the top 8 came from the same Semi-State. He could easily raise his percentage a few points by only including who he thinks will come out of the Semi-State up at the top, before listing additional probabilities.

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11 minutes ago, warsawwrestling said:

And if I remember right he doesn't pick his list off of how he thinks Semi-States will feed into state. Meaning he ranks from what he believes to be highest to lowest, even if the top 8 came from the same Semi-State. He could easily raise his percentage a few points by only including who he thinks will come out of the Semi-State up at the top, before listing additional probabilities.

Yes.  Semi-state usually messes up his rankings a good bit, but in many cases it due to a higher ranked guy taking out a lower ranked one.  

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6 hours ago, warsawwrestling said:

And if I remember right he doesn't pick his list off of how he thinks Semi-States will feed into state. Meaning he ranks from what he believes to be highest to lowest, even if the top 8 came from the same Semi-State. He could easily raise his percentage a few points by only including who he thinks will come out of the Semi-State up at the top, before listing additional probabilities.

And he also doesn't use his love for DA REGION or more specifically Calumet as a deciding factor.............or does he :P

All jokes aside it really is quite incredible how accurate they are, nice work as always Mike!

Edited by indianmorg

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10 hours ago, Wrestling4EVER said:

Just the things that are out of your control ...

And it certainly isn't easy to predict ranked wrestlers missing weight at sectionals, regionals, etc., either.  ?

Congratulations and a big thank you to Ontherise219 and all the other ranking mavens for their fine work.

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