TysonNisley Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 (edited) You know, as a wrestler that has competed twice in the East Chicago semi-state and made it out once, I feel obligated to say that the East Chicago semi-state is the hardest in the state. Not only is this probably untrue (because the Evansville semi-state is absolutely killer this year), but with the Indianamat brackets having state rankings next to each wrestler, it’s really convenient and easy for me to break down each semi-state and determine which one has the most depth, the most title contenders, and things of that sort. I’ve had a lot of fun during the past couple write-ups beginning with a sort of statistical breakdown of anything interesting in the tournament I am covering, and I hope that you all find it entertaining as well. So, let’s see which semi-state is actually the hardest this year: State Ranked Wrestlers: ECSS- 77/350 = 22% NHSS- 86/350 = 24.57% NCSS- 79/350 = 22.57% EVSS- 90/350 = 25.71% (18 state ranked wrestlers are not accounted for here, due to some being knocked out early, and a margin of error on my part when counting these numbers up, although the numbers and percentages are for the most part correct, minus or plus no more than 1 or 2) Top 8 Ranked Wrestlers: ECSS- 23/112 = 20.54% NHSS- 26/112 = 23.21% NCSS- 23/112 = 20.54% EVSS- 37/112 = 33.04% #1 Ranked Wrestlers: ECSS- 7/14 = 50% NHSS- 1/14 = 7.14% NCSS- 2/14 = 14.29% EVSS- 4/14 = 28.57% So, the Evansville semi-state looks very strong through all three percentages, claiming the most state ranked wrestlers and top 8 ranked wrestlers, while having the second most #1 ranked wrestlers. The New Haven semi-state performs very well here and shatters its previous perception as the “weakest semi-state,” having the second most state ranked wrestlers and top 8 ranked wrestlers, although they only have #1 ranked wrestler. The New Castle semi-state takes third in all categories. Finally, while the East Chicago semi-state does come in last in the first two categories, we do have 7 of the 14 #1 ranked wrestlers, which is a very impressive statistic. I know Crown Point does claim a lot of those, but there are still 3 #1 ranked wrestlers in this semi-state not from Crown Point, which would compare impressively against Evansville. Additionally, if we got rid of Crown Point entirely, the Evansville semi-state would actually not gain a single #1 ranked wrestler, with New Castle getting one more and New Haven getting THREE more. I should also say that without Brownsburg in the picture, the East Chicago semi-state gets 2 more #1 ranked wrestlers. And for the fun of it, if both Crown Point and Brownsburg are hypothetically not participating in this year’s state series, then the New Haven semi-state leads with 5 #1 ranked wrestlers, then New Castle follows with 4, then East Chicago comes behind with 3, and Evansville now comes in last with 2. This statistic really doesn’t mean too much, but I thought it would be fun to examine these semi-states without the two monster programs of Indiana wrestling that will likely be your state champs and runner-ups, in one order or the other. Overall, all of these semi-states look to have strong points, and the argument to which one is the best comes down to what you value more when making this determination. Anyways, that was fun, let’s make some predictions. Before I get started, I want to explain the format I will be using for a little. In every weight class, if I see a death draw, I will make sure to highlight it and talk about it separately. I am defining a death draw as any matchup between two top SIXTEEN ranked opponents, where both of the wrestlers, per the rankings, should go to state. I will make sure to give extra attention to draws that are extra brutal. Then, I will make my predictions, and give my reasoning for my picks, going one quarter bracket at a time. After the quarter brackets are talked about, I will talk about the top 4 at that semi-state, before moving on to the next weight class. I’ve written a lot now, with no predictions, so let me shut up about other stuff and talk about this bracket. 106: Top 4: Mason Jones Kaleb Salazar Logan Haney Cameron Woods #6 Mason Jones is the heavy favorite to win this weight class, and will likely breeze his way into the finals. The more interesting quarter bracket for me is the one below, with #25 Cameron Woods and #24 Xavier Chavez. Both have put together solid seasons, and could realistically win this matchup. Woods won his regional with a major decision over Joy Cantu, while Chavez fell to #17 Kaleb Salazar in an 8-5 bout. There really isn’t too much information that indicates that this matchup will go either way, but Woods does have a solid win over #22 Logan Haney, while Chavez doesn’t yet have a state ranked win on his record (although he did beat Bissmeyer when he was ranked). I give Woods this match by a slim margin. As for Haney and Salazar, they should make it through to the semiswith not too much trouble. Woods has had respectable matches with Jones this season, losing both 13-9 and 6-2, but it’s hard for me to predict an upset here. Haney and Salazar is a quite intriguing match, with Haney wrestling Jones extremely tough at sectionals and announcing himself as a semi-state title contender. However, while many people predicted Haney to best Jones at regionals, Jones put up a dominant performance against Haney, winning 9-0, showing that there is likely still a difference in levels there. I think Salazar is a little bit closer to Jones’s level, and placed significantly higher than Haney at the Al Smith (a lot of ECSS wrestlers wrestle here, so I will refer to the Al Smith tournament quite a bit), so I have Salazar edging out Haney here, but Jones should get the job done in the finals. As for the 3rd and 4th place match, Woods actually owns a win over Haney this season, 3-2, but I think that Haney will reverse this match, given how he has been wrestling as of recently. 113: DEATH DRAW: #2 Gavin Jendreas vs. #14 E’Shawn Tolbert Tolbert’s upset loss to #20 Seth Aubin in the regional finals means that he will have to wrestle Jendreas in the ticket round. With Tolbert not wrestling at the conference tournament, we have yet to see how this matchup goes, but given Jendreas’s pedigree compared to Tolbert’s, I don’t see an upset happening here. Top 4: Gavin Jendreas Seth Aubin Aiden Dallinger Liam Siburcrist As discussed, Jendreas will likely win the whole tournament, and I would be shocked if anything different happened. #11 Aiden Dallinger, #16 Liam Siburcrist, and #20 Seth Aubin are all heavy favorites to win their quarter brackets, so there’s not much to say there. I am, however, predicting an upset in the semis, with Aubin taking down Siburcrist. Siburcrist enters the semi-state with only one loss on his record, while Aubin has had a couple of road bumps this season. However, I think that Hobart’s schedule has battle tested Aubin, and he should even be the favorite going into this matchup. Their only common loss, Dallinger, stuck Siburcrist in the final seconds of their match, while Aubin only lost a 4-1 match, although I don’t exactly know what the score between Siburcrist and Dallinger was before the fall. Regardless, I pick Aubin as a slight favorite to win this matchup, before falling in the finals to Jendreas. For 3rd and 4th, I think Dallinger will get it done again against Siburcrist. 120: DEATH DRAW: #9 Dominic Brown vs. #15 Matthew Maldonado Brown’s loss to the #1 in the state at regionals means he has a top 16 opponent in Maldonado in the ticket round. Man, Indiana sure isn’t fair. I believe that Brown will win this matchup, as he has wrestled Ashton Jackson quite respectably, and has the tools to make a deep run in the state tournament. Don’t expect it to be a blowout though, as their sole match this season ended in a 1-0 decision for Brown. Brown has the edge, but not much of one. Top 4: Ashton Jackson Dominic Brown Dylan Bennett Isaiah Wilson I’ve already talked about the death draw, and absolutely nobody thinks that Jackson is going out earlier than state, so let’s talk about the second quarter bracket. #25 Isaiah Wilson gets a great draw as a 4th placer at regionals, getting UR Gunnar Sandefur. Now, I say great draw, because that’s what the rankings say, but note that a first round matchup against Sandefur means that Sandefur won his regional, and he did it against #13 Dylan Bennett. This means that Sandefur could be A LOT better than what the rankings indicate, so why not test it right off the bat against Wilson, who has been wrestling solid as well. He does come in as the 4th placer, but the Crown Point regional was quite brutal, with Ashton Jackson, Dominic Brown, #19 Sonny Sessa, who had brought Brown into overtime at sectionals, and then Wilson. There’s all sorts of “wrestling math” I could do here, to sway you all one way or the other, but I think that Wilson is going to win this match. No further justification needed. Sessa’s 3rd place finish at regionals, along with Bennett’s upset loss at regionals has them meeting ROUND ONE for an absolutely killer opening match. Honestly, I want to go with Sessa here, as he has been wrestling quite impressively, but I also know that Bennett is great in these situations, and if my memory serves me right, I chose him getting upset in last year’s ticket round, which did not happen, so I won’t make the same mistake again. Now, I think that Jackson over Wilson is an easy pick over Wilson, but what about Brown vs. Bennett? One is a stud freshman that has battled everybody in the state extremely tough, regardless of their resume or ranking, but Bennett has been there, done that, and will bring an excellent match to Brown. I think Brown edges him in this match, with Brown winning a 2-0 match against Bennett earlier in the year. If I was a betting man, I would think that the score would be the same, or maybe even 1-0. But that 0 on Bennett’s side of the score, along with Brown’s 1-0 match against Maldonado and TB win over Sessa tells me that this kid can ride, and this is a skill that is extremely handy in clutch situations, like a ticket round, or semi final bout that could make or break either of these wrestler’s dreams to end their season with a medal and a bracket. I think after the semis, predicting gets really easy, with Jackson likely taking out Brown, and Bennett likely winning over Wilson. 126: DEATH DRAW: #11 Mason Stanley vs. #16 Guillermo Rivera Stanley and Rivera are both previous state qualifiers, but only one of them gets to make the trip this year. While Stanley is the higher ranked wrestler, Rivera has been wrestling impressively these past couple of weeks, who’s dominated anybody not named Logan Frazier, and has even gone the distance with Frazier in the sectional and regional finals. Not many wrestlers at 126 can do that right now. So, I’m predicting an UPSET here with Rivera beating Stanley. Top 4: Logan Frazier Guillermo Rivera Ayden Campbell Alejandro Rivera The first quarter bracket features no state ranked wrestlers, but Alejandro Ramirez has spent some time as a state ranked wrestler this season, and has some solid wins to support his resume. Bentley Whitmer will likely be his ticket round opponent, where I think Ramirez will edge Whitmer to qualify for state. Although an unranked matchup, both of these wrestlers are seniors, and I expect this match to be a battle full of heart. As mentioned, I think Rivera will win the next quarter bracket, and #1 Logan Frazier should easily win his. I have a lot to say about the last quarter bracket though. A tough regional for #21 Ayden Campbell means he will have to battle fellow freshman #19 Will Mason in a first round state ranked matchup. Mason bested Campbell earlier this season at Al Smith, beating him 4-3, but both have results this season that indicate that they could be ranked higher, and both surely deserve to qualify for state. The winner of this bout takes on Nasir Christion, who has lost to Campbell this season only 4-3 (although he was majored 10-2 earlier this year). Christion is no easy ticket round match, and Christion will be fresh off of an UR first round matchup, while either Mason or Campbell will be finishing up a brawl. I feel like Campbell will beat Mason this time around, with Campbell’s peaks making him a dangerous wrestler for almost everybody in the state. Mason has demonstrated more consistency this season, but if the best of both wrestlers show up at semi-state, I think Campbell gets the win. The placement rounds, in my opinion, are pretty clear cut, with Rivera beating Ramirez, and Frazier beating Campbell. I also think Frazier beating Rivera again isn’t too hard to predict, and Campbell should get the job done against Ramirez. Interestingly enough, Campbell lost to Rivera only 7-6 at regionals, so while this matchup doesn’t get to happen at semi-state, it’s interesting to think how deep of a run Campbell could have made otherwise. 132: EXTRA DEADLY DEATH DRAW: #5 David Maldonado vs. #11 Hayden DeMarco Everyone should know by now to take the rankings at 132 with a grain of salt, because this weight class has been nothing but chaos this year, and to create even more chaos, we have a ticket round match between two returning medalists. To make things even more chaotic, Maldonado and DeMarco are 1-1 on the season, so this match is truly a coin flip. I think that DeMarco has had some spectacular moments this season, including a win over #4 Eleazar Walker at Al Smith, while Maldonado has wrestled consistently and won every match he was supposed to, aside from a single loss on the season to DeMarco. I’m taking DeMarco in this matchup, solely because I think DeMarco’s peaks are a little higher, and I genuinely think he could win the entire state tournament if he’s on it. Crazy to think that a title contender is going down this early, but what can you really do? Top 4: Eleazar Walker Griffin Van Tichelt Hayden DeMarco Hayden Fritz #4 Eleazar Walker should make it out of his quarter bracket quite comfortably, and as should #10 Griffin Van Tichelt. As for the last quarter bracket, there are two candidates that I see possibly grabbing the last ticket. Hayden Fritz has wrestled a solid season that has led him to a regional title and a favorite for qualifying for state. In the ticket round, Fritz will take on Galvin Shambaugh. Now, I’ve got to be honest, I don’t know too much about either of these wrestlers, but let me take you through the mental math that goes on in my head when I try to make predictions like these. One is ranked #6 in the SS, while the other is ranked #9, making Fritz a favorite already per the rankings. Looking at Fritz’s results, he has beaten SS #5 Caleb Oliver not once, but twice during the state series, showing that he is better than his ranking indicates. The only result from Shambaugh’s end that sticks out to me is a 5-3 loss to Bentley Whitmer. Whitmer is good, and might even qualify for state this year, but a loss from somebody a weight class below devalues Shambaugh’s odds in this match. So, I think that Fritz will probably win the matchup. Moving on to the semis, we get to see an Al Smith finals rematch in the semis with Walker and DeMarco. Interestingly enough, both Maldonado and Walker have one loss on the season, and those losses are to DeMarco, yet DeMarco comes in as the underdog for both matches. I will say, #11 is a tough ranking for DeMarco, who only has that ranking because Van Tichelt has been on an absolute tear, but also hasn’t gotten to test himself against another top opponent, leaving him as a #10 in the state, even though I think he will likely medal. Anyways, I think Walker gets his match back against DeMarco to send DeMarco to the 3rd place match. Meeting DeMarco there will be Fritz, as Van Tichelt will likely make the finals. In the battle of Hayden’s, I think DeMarco gets the job done. But what do we make of this finals match though? In a similar situation to Bennett and Sessa, we have the stud freshman with nothing to lose against a proven competitor that wants to end his season on the top. Van Tichelt has beaten DeMarco, who has beaten Walker. We know that. But, Van Tichelt also has a number of losses on the season to wrestlers that aren’t quite as high caliber as Walker or DeMarco. So, while Van Tichelt has the tools to compete against the best, he hasn’t quite established himself yet in the conversation with the other title contenders here, in my opinion, at least. 138: Top 4: Cole Solomey Jeffrey Huyvaert Wesley Harper Kaptur Nowaczyk While by the terms that I defined “death” draw mean that there aren’t any death draws here by technicality, there are plenty of really ugly quarter brackets here. #1 Cole Solomey and #5 Jeffrey Huyvaert are the heavy favorites to make it out of their quarter brackets, and will both likely see each other in the semi-state finals for a regionals rematch that saw the superfreshman stun the returning state runner-up with a takedown in the final seconds of the bout. But let’s talk about the other wrestlers in this field first. In the second quarter bracket, we are treated to a first round state ranked matchup between #21 Luke Reid and #22 Christopher Bohn. Reid bested Bohn earlier this season, but Bohn is a talented wrestler that qualified for state last year and just barely missed out on a medal, so I think that Bohn certainly has the tools to reverse this match. The unfortunate part about this match is that the winner gets an even uglier matchup against #7 Wesley Harper, who also qualified for state last year, making for three state level competitors in one quarter bracket. I think that Harper will likely be the guy to make it out of this quarter bracket, but the result of Reid and Bohn is a little more up in the air. The bottom quarter bracket features yet another state ranked matchup with #11 Lucas Clement and #19 Kaptur Nowaczyk. Clement is a returning state qualifier, while Nowaczyk has had limited mat time this season. However, Nowaczyk was extremely close to punching his ticket last year, and should threaten to spoil Clement’s senior run. In fact, I’m even predicting an UPSET in this match, with Nowaczyk taking out Clement and ultimately punching his ticket for the first time. The semis are a little easier to predict here, with Solomey and Huyvaert winning their semis matches, but the placement matches are a little trickier, with Huyvaert establishing himself as a title contender at regionals, and leading the series between him and Solomey at 1-0. However, there is a ton of experience between the two wrestlers here, and I’m not yet ready to say that Huyvaert’s win makes him necessarily the better wrestler. I think that given how close the last match was, Solomey will take this match back and even the series. If the bracket works out, I would not be surprised to see this match run back at the state finals. For 3rd place, I think Harper gets it done over Nowaczyk, who I think will surprise some people this year, but will likely be outclassed and outweighed by Harper. 145: DEATH DRAW: #5 Wesley Smith vs. #13 Caleb Solomey An unfortunate draw for the older Solomey, who has put together an impressive season, but now gets Smith in the ticket round, who had quickly climbed the rankings this year with stellar performances at big tournaments such as Al Smith. I think Smith will get it done here, but Solomey won’t go down without a fight in his senior season. Top 4: Aidan Torres Anthony Bahl Wesley Smith Jayden Lewis Despite the rankings indicating a weaker quarter bracket, the top quarter bracket in this weight features two returning state qualifiers in #19 Jayden Lewis and Devin Wible. Both are up a considerable amount of weight from where they qualified, with Lewis coming all the way up from 120 last year, and Wible up from 126 two years ago when he punched his ticket. Wible’s adjustment to his bigger weight has been more gradual, and I think that this could be a factor in this matchup. However, I’m still picking Lewis to get it done in this matchup and punch his ticket. The other three quarter brackets here are a little more predictable, with three top 5 ranked wrestlers occupying these quarter brackets. #2 Anthony Bahl and #5 Wesley Smith is a match that intrigues me quite a bit. Smith showed that he could hang with the best with a 4-1 loss to #1 Aidan Torres at Al Smith, and I think that beating Bahl is very doable here. However, I have to give Bahl a lot of credit in this match as a returning state finalist, and I’m not ready to predict an upset here. The finals match might be interesting, but I’m a little bit skeptical to think that it will actually happen. Bahl has struggled with various injuries so far this season, and it makes sense that he wants to save himself for the state finals, as an overwhelming favorite to meet Torres again in the state finals. I’m not sure what everyone else’s opinions are on forfeiting matches like this, but I’d rather see a healthy Bahl against Torres than risk an injury earlier on in the state series for the sake of us wrestling fans. For the 3rd place match, I think Smith gets it done against Lewis, but this weight class makes a tough draw for any second placer at another semi-state. 152: Top 4: Bryce Denton Beau Brabender Adrian Pellot Hunter Miller This weight class is really interesting. The first notable thing to mention here is that #2 Anthony Rinehart is not in the bracket. I’m not exactly sure why he didn’t wrestle at regionals, but it’s really none of my business either, and I hope that Rinehart is healthy and ready for next year’s state series. The only notable thing in this bracket is #12 Bryce Denton, who is up all the way from 138 after returning from an injury. He sits comfortably in the top bracket as a favorite to make the finals after an upset over #7 Beau Brabender in the regional finals. The qualifiers here are pretty clear cut, with Denton, #15 Adrian Pellot, Brabender, and #14 Hunter Miller punching their tickets with relative ease. It’s when the semis start that things start to get a little trickier. Denton matches up against Pellot in the semis, and I don’t think this is an easy win for Denton at all. Pellot has competed well against everybody in the state, even having a one point match against Rinehart earlier this year. I think Denton wins, but a one point match should be expected. In the other semi final match, Brabender and Miller will wrestle for the third time this season, with Brabender winning both meetups by a 4 point margin. I don’t really expect the result to change here. You can honestly flip a coin in the finals here, but Denton is likely the favorite going into this matchup, and in my opinion should win this match again. Pellot and Miller is another coin flip, but I’ve been impressed by some of Pellot’s results this season, and I think he is capable of turning some heads in the final weeks of the state series. 160: EXTRA DEADLY DEATH DRAW: #6 AJ Steenbeke vs. #12 Kenneth Bisping Steenbeke has had some tough semi-states and Friday night draws throughout his career. In his freshman year, he wrestled Noah Hollendonner and lost 3-2, who would go on to be the state runner-up that year, while Steenbeke would lose Friday night to eventual 6th placer Jed Perry. His sophomore year, he lost 8-5 in the semis to Orlando Cruz (who everyone should know by now is really good) and drew eventual 4th placer and current D1 starter Andrew Wilson. Last year, Steenbeke drew against Goodwin in the semis to take 3rd, and got the worst possible Friday night draw in eventual runner-up Kade Law. After suffering brutal draws and defeats during his first three years, what is he rewarded with? How about another returning state qualifier in the ticket round? Bisping is as tough as they come, and while Steenbeke is the favorite, the upset is certainly possible here. Give me Steenbeke in this match, but it should be close. Top 4: Sam Goin AJ Steenbeke Ben Shaffer Cameron Crisp Aside from the brutal draw featuring Steenbeke and Bisping, the only quarter brackets here feature only one state ranked wrestler a piece, with #15 Ben Shaffer, #17 Cameron Crisp, and #1 Sam Goin all looking to breeze through to the placement rounds. I think the finalists for this weight class are pretty clear cut too, with Steenbeke avoiding Goin until the finals, a draw that will hopefully help him on his quest to receive a medal at state for the first time. I don’t really think that Steenbeke will win, but I anticipate that this match will be a lot closer than some people think, with Steenbeke wrestling very well as of recently. Shaffer and Crisp for 3rd place should be very close, but I’m giving the edge to the higher ranked Shaffer, who is always in a match and has several tricks up his sleeve, something I know from both watching him and scraping with him. 170: FIRST ROUND DEATH DRAW: #5 Aidan Costello vs. #14 Zymarion Hollyfield In possibly one of the most brutal first round matches in the entire state, Costello and Hollyfield will battle for a spot in the ticket round, where the winner will be heavily favored against #25 Daeveon Cheeks. Hollyfield has put together a fantastic season this year, but an upset loss to #18 Gavin Malone, and an unusual 10-4 loss to Triton senior Elijah Cox has him drawing a top 5 opponent right away. Funnily enough, losing this third place match actually improves his chances of going to state, with Cox likely wrestling #2 Cody Goodwin in the ticket round, so perhaps Penn studied the algorithm before that match and told Hollyfield to lose? Unlikely, and I say this with no intention to diminish Cox’s big win over Hollyfield, but it is funny how the brackets work out. With Costello pinning Hollyfield earlier in the year, I expect that Costello will win again, although I feel like a pin is unlikely. Top 4: Goodwin Costello Valdez Malone Goodwin should easily make his way to the finals in this bracket. The quarter bracket below is pretty interesting, featuring a first round state ranked matchup in Malone and #21 Manolo Hood. Given that Malone is coming off of a big win over Hollyfield, and has claimed several other impressive wins this season, I think he wins this match by a decent margin. If Malone is starting to peak at the right time, anybody in the state should be nervous to wrestle him. As mentioned, I think Costello gets it done over Hollyfield to eventually punch his ticket, and likewise, I think #15 Isaac Valdez makes it through to the semis. The semis don’t leave too many questions for spectators, with Goodwin and Costello leading as heavy favorites to make the finals. I do wonder how Goodwin and Costello match up in the finals. With Goodwin absent from this year’s Al Smith, a potential showdown between the two did not go down, meaning that there is not a lot of information to comfortably predict this matchup. Goodwin is definitely the favorite here, but Costello is a problematic wrestler for many, due to his height, and could invalidate a lot of Goodwin’s offense. I’m taking Goodwin here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Costello kept it close. For the 3rd place match, I have to go with Valdez as the winner here. To be completely honest, I was going to choose Malone here to win, as I knew that Malone had lost to Valdez in the regional finals, but figured that it was a close match, and thought that Malone could reverse the decision. After all, he had just beat Hollyfield, and Hollyfield had beat Valdez in the sectional finals. After rechecking the score of Valdez and Malone to include it in this write up, I found out that Valdez had TECH FALLED Malone, a result that makes it impossible for me to choose Malone as the winner only a week later. When making predictions, there are results that are sometimes anomalies, and I think that this is definitely one of them, and expect the rematch to be much closer, but I can’t look at a tech fall and predict that the wrestler on the receiving end of the tech fall will win. I could even be convinced that Valdez might make a finals appearance this year, but Costello has wrestled very well this season, and I’m confident in my predictions at this weight. 182: DEATH DRAW: #10 Connor Cervantes vs. #12 Jaxson Walters Two seniors, both ranked in the top 16, neither qualifying for state yet in their careers, and now only one of them will get the chance. Cervantes opens up as the favorite as the higher ranked wrestler, as well as boasting an undefeated record at this point in the season, while Walters is coming off of a tough loss to freshman Vinny Freeman in the regional finals. I think the momentum is in Cervantes’s favor, making this a bit of an easier pick for me than it otherwise would be. Top 4: Orlando Cruz Connor Cervantes Ethan Popp Ethan Risner Lots to breakdown in this weight class. First and foremost, nobody is touching #1 Orlando Cruz in this semi-state. Cruz has been incredibly dominant this season, and I expect that Cruz scores at least 60 points this weekend. As for the rest of the field, things are a little more interesting. In the second quarter bracket, #22 Ethan Popp is the heavy favorite to punch his ticket, likely wrestling Cameron Zimmerman in the ticket round. They have no common opponents, but Zimmerman has been competitive against several highly ranked wrestlers this season, and is not a free ticket by any means. In the last quarter bracket, Vinny Freeman is rewarded for his regionals win with a top 16 opponent in #16 Ethan Risner. Now, a lot of people might want to pick Freeman here after his win over Walters, and a 14-6 major decision at that, but this win is Freeman’s only substantial win of the season, which makes me think that this result could be one of those anomalies that just happen every once in a while. This match will be great for Freeman to show if he’s actually at that state level, or if he just had a good regional. Risner has been consistent this season, and I don’t see him losing if he’s wrestling solid. Cervantes and Popp will hit in the top semi final match, where I think Cervantes will win pretty comfortably. Cruz should also win pretty comfortably in the other semi final match. I think that Cruz also wins pretty nicely over Cervantes, but for 3rd place, we have a clash of Ethans, and the rankings don’t really help. Risner is the higher state ranked wrestler, but the lower semi-state ranked wrestler, while Popp is lower in the state but higher in the semi-state. Popp is an interesting wrestler to try to predict, because he doesn’t have too many matches this year that are good for comparison with the rest of the field. Their only common opponent that they have is Matthew McCrum, who they both beat by decision. So, I think I’m going to go with Risner, mostly because he has been battle tested a little more than Popp has this season, so that’s really all I can go off of. 195: DEATH DRAW: #5 Christian Chavez vs. #13 Trent Kersey Kersey has had a stellar season prior to the state series, vaulting his way up to #13 in the state after an incredible Al Smith consolation run, and several other solid wins. However, Kersey has struggled to maintain this level during the state series, losing to Sam Chambers at sectionals, and narrowly escaping an early elimination in the regional blood round, winning in overtime to make the semi-state tournament. Now, he will have to escape elimination again against one of the best 195 pounders in the state in Christian Chavez. I think that Chavez has been wrestling fantastically, and I doubt Kersey will be able to stun Chavez in the ticket round, but Kersey certainly has the tools to wrestle against the best in the state. Top 4: Christian Chavez Anthony White Neil Johnson Sam Chambers While Chavez and #8 Anthony White are easy picks to make it out of their quarter brackets, the other two quarter brackets aren’t quite that simple. In the second quarter bracket, there are three semi-state ranked wrestlers looking to punch their ticket for the first time. The highest ranked of these wrestlers is SS #7 Joshua McKelvin. He wrestles Sam Chambers in the first round, who has shown that he is much better than his #11 ranking in the semi-state with his win over Kersey at sectionals. Although Kersey was able to reverse that result against Chambers at regionals, Chambers wrestled the rematch close enough for me to give him extra value when it comes to deciding the victor here. The winner of this match will get SS #10 Bazle Owens in the ticket round, who is just as competitive as the other two SS ranked wrestlers in this weight class, and can most certainly steal the ticket here. At the end of the day, I think I have to go with the lowest ranked wrestler here, as he has shown tremendous growth throughout the state series, and while he is a 4th placer coming into this tournament, it should be noted that the wrestlers that placed above him were ranked 8th, 11th, and 13th, respectively, and it would be hard for most wrestlers to place higher than 4th in that field. The last quarter bracket features a state ranked matchup in #21 James Veal and #11 Neil Johnson. Johnson has had a great season this year and is the favorite heading into this matchup, but Veal is capable of winning big matches, beating Henry Kukelhan in the Al Smith quarterfinals for a 2 seed upset. Veal hasn’t been entirely consistent since then, but the best version of Veal could get the job done here, although I am ultimately picking Johnson to win here. White should beat Chambers, who he has already defeated in the state series by a 13-4 major decision. Chavez and Johnson should be a close match, but I could see Chavez blowing it out in the third period with his aggressive handfighting and ability to find attacks. Chavez and White in the finals should be fun. They haven’t wrestled yet this season, but both have had great moments this season, and I think it will be very competitive. Chavez gets the nod here because his peaks this season have been a little more impressive, which includes an Al Smith title over Kaden McConnell, a result that gets much more stock after McConnell’s upset over Gunner Henry. As for the 3rd place match, I think that Johnson will win pretty easily, as indicated by his 47 second fall over Chambers in the regional semis. 220: Top 4: Will Clark Cole Chicoine Jonathan Neese Everett McClelland The only quarter bracket here that I can’t comfortably predict is the first one. The highest ranked wrestler coming into this quarter bracket is #22 Clayton Deutscher, who also happens to be the 4th placer coming into this quarter bracket as well (which should tell you something about the Crown Point regional). He will match up against Everett McClelland in the first round, where I believe that McClelland will get the upset win. Now, the justification for this gets a little ugly, but let me run you all through it. McClelland and Deutscher have one common opponent that I could find: LaPorte’s very own Devon Duschek. Deutscher beat Duschek in an overtime match at sectionals, while McClelland lost to Duschek by a first period fall. However, James Veal pinned Duschek, while McClelland pinned Veal. So, we’re put in a little bit of a tricky prediction situation here. Let’s look at Kaleb Abad. Abad eliminated Duschek at regionals with a fall, in addition to another fall against Duschek earlier in the year. Abad only lost 1-0 to Deutscher at regionals. With all of this information, I think that McClelland gets the nod here, as it seems like his loss to Duschek was perhaps an outlying result that should not distract you all from some of his more solid performances. With that out of the way, I think that it is pretty easy to assume that Will Clark will probably win semi-state at this weight, so McClelland will likely be going for third. #13 Jonathan Neese and #20 Cole Chicoine is a bit of a trickier match to figure out the winner of. They have no common opponents, but Chicoine does have some solid results under his name, including two wins over other competitors in the field, and a slim 8-6 loss to Alex Rose. I feel like I have to give the nod here to the lower ranked wrestler, with Neese being overall unproven at his ranking, which could of course be proven this weekend and I could be completely wrong, but I think that Chicoine overall has a stronger resume, aside from his ranking. For the 3rd place match, I think Neese will get it done over McClelland. 285: Top 4: Paul Clark Aramis McNutt Anthony Popi Peyton Kendall While the ticket round matchup in the top quarter bracket is by technicality not a death draw by what I defined a death draw to be, it’s basically one. #13 Jordan Cree takes on #17 Peyton Kendall in a battle of returning state qualifiers. Kendall has had some great results this season, but he’s also taken some unusual losses that make me not so confident that he can get the upset here. On the other hand, Cree has been great this season, losing only one match, but a little bit untested on the season as well. I think if Kendall wrestles his best match, he can pull the upset here, and that’s what I’m picking him to do. Every other quarter bracket has a clear favorite, with #11 Aramis McNutt, #4 Anthony Popi, and #2 Paul Clark all likely punching their tickets. We are getting treated to a #2 vs. #4 match in the semis with Clark and Popi stepping into the circle to wrestle. Despite Popi’s ranking, I still feel like Clark is on another level against any heavyweight not named Leighton Jones, and he should win this match by a comfortable margin. Kendall vs. McNutt will be a rematch from earlier this season, where McNutt won a commanding 11-5 match. I expect it to be closer this time around, but I don’t think the overall result changes. I think Clark wins pretty easily in the finals, while Popi and Kendall get a rematch of their regional finals match, where Popi won a slim 2-1 match. This certainly makes me think that Kendall could get this win, but Popi has been overall better and more consistent on the season, so I am more comfortable choosing Popi here despite the razor thin match just a week prior. Lots of writing done for this semi-state breakdown, about 14 pages single spaced (including all of the spaces between segments), but I genuinely do enjoy writing these. I won’t say anything more here, especially since I plan on doing a state breakdown next week, and I think that will probably be the pinnacle of my write-ups thus far, especially since I won’t have a tournament to make weight for to distract me from doing research and breaking matches down and all of that. See you all next week! Edited February 8, 2023 by TysonNisley rmckinney88, KLH, Cooper.Wilkins and 16 others 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TysonNisley Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 Once again, let me know if you see any typos or incorrect information, so I can correct these issues. Gasman, Paycheck141, MUSKEEWRESTLER and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickfor6 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, TysonNisley said: I am, however, predicting an upset in the semis, with Aubin taking down Siburcrist. Siburcrist enters the semi-state with only one loss on his record, while Aubin has had a couple of road bumps this season. However, I think that Hobart’s schedule has battle tested Aubin, and he should even be the favorite going into this matchup. Their only common loss, Dallinger, stuck Siburcrist in the final seconds of their match, while Aubin only lost a 4-1 match, although I don’t exactly know what the score between Siburcrist and Dallinger was before the fall. Regardless, I pick Aubin as a slight favorite to win this matchup, before falling in the finals to Jendreas. For 3rd and 4th, I think Dallinger will get it done again against Siburcrist. Awesome Job as always! Siburcrist and Dallinger score was 6-2 before the fall. Siburcrist had a takedown in the first 10 seconds of the match. Aiden Dallinger (McCutcheon) defeated Liam Siburcrist (North White) Liam Siburcrist North White 2 Aiden Dallinger McCutcheon 6 Period 1 Takedown (1:50) Reversal (1:12) 2 2 Choice 1 Defer Neutral 0 0 Period 2 Takedown (1:26) 0 2 Choice 2 Bottom 0 0 Period 3 Reversal (1:21) 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JORVILLE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 28 minutes ago, TysonNisley said: You know, as a wrestler that has competed twice in the East Chicago semi-state and made it out once, I feel obligated to say that the East Chicago semi-state is the hardest in the state. Not only is this probably untrue (because the Evansville semi-state is absolutely killer this year), but with the Indianamat brackets having state rankings next to each wrestler, it’s really convenient and easy for me to break down each semi-state and determine which one has the most depth, the most title contenders, and things of that sort. I’ve had a lot of fun during the past couple write-ups beginning with a sort of statistical breakdown of anything interesting in the tournament I am covering, and I hope that you all find it entertaining as well. So, let’s see which semi-state is actually the hardest this year: State Ranked Wrestlers: ECSS- 77/350 = 22% NHSS- 86/350 = 24.57% NCSS- 79/350 = 22.57% EVSS- 90/350 = 25.71% (18 state ranked wrestlers are not accounted for here, due to some being knocked out early, and a margin of error on my part when counting these numbers up, although the numbers and percentages are for the most part correct, minus or plus no more than 1 or 2) Top 8 Ranked Wrestlers: ECSS- 23/112 = 20.54% NHSS- 26/112 = 23.21% NCSS- 23/112 = 20.54% EVSS- 37/112 = 33.04% #1 Ranked Wrestlers: ECSS- 7/14 = 50% NHSS- 1/14 = 7.14% NCSS- 2/14 = 14.29% EVSS- 4/14 = 28.57% So, the Evansville semi-state looks very strong through all three percentages, claiming the most state ranked wrestlers and top 8 ranked wrestlers, while having the second most #1 ranked wrestlers. The New Haven semi-state performs very well here and shatters its previous perception as the “weakest semi-state,” having the second most state ranked wrestlers and top 8 ranked wrestlers, although they only have #1 ranked wrestler. The New Castle semi-state takes third in all categories. Finally, while the East Chicago semi-state does come in last in the first two categories, we do have 7 of the 14 #1 ranked wrestlers, which is a very impressive statistic. I know Crown Point does claim a lot of those, but there are still 3 #1 ranked wrestlers in this semi-state not from Crown Point, which would compare impressively against Evansville. Additionally, if we got rid of Crown Point entirely, the Evansville semi-state would actually not gain a single #1 ranked wrestler, with New Castle getting one more and New Haven getting THREE more. I should also say that without Brownsburg in the picture, the East Chicago semi-state gets 2 more #1 ranked wrestlers. And for the fun of it, if both Crown Point and Brownsburg are hypothetically not participating in this year’s state series, then the New Haven semi-state leads with 5 #1 ranked wrestlers, then New Castle follows with 4, then East Chicago comes behind with 3, and Evansville now comes in last with 2. This statistic really doesn’t mean too much, but I thought it would be fun to examine these semi-states without the two monster programs of Indiana wrestling that will likely be your state champs and runner-ups, in one order or the other. Overall, all of these semi-states look to have strong points, and the argument to which one is the best comes down to what you value more when making this determination. Anyways, that was fun, let’s make some predictions. Before I get started, I want to explain the format I will be using for a little. In every weight class, if I see a death draw, I will make sure to highlight it and talk about it separately. I am defining a death draw as any matchup between two top SIXTEEN ranked opponents, where both of the wrestlers, per the rankings, should go to state. I will make sure to give extra attention to draws that are extra brutal. Then, I will make my predictions, and give my reasoning for my picks, going one quarter bracket at a time. After the quarter brackets are talked about, I will talk about the top 4 at that semi-state, before moving on to the next weight class. I’ve written a lot now, with no predictions, so let me shut up about other stuff and talk about this bracket. 106: Top 4: Mason Jones Kaleb Salazar Logan Haney Cameron Woods #6 Mason Jones is the heavy favorite to win this weight class, and will likely breeze his way into the finals. The more interesting quarter bracket for me is the one below, with #25 Cameron Woods and #24 Xavier Chavez. Both have put together solid seasons, and could realistically win this matchup. Woods won his regional with a major decision over Joy Cantu, while Chavez fell to #17 Kaleb Salazar in an 8-5 bout. There really isn’t too much information that indicates that this matchup will go either way, but Woods does have a solid win over #22 Logan Haney, while Chavez doesn’t yet have a state ranked win on his record (although he did beat Bissmeyer when he was ranked). I give Woods this match by a slim margin. As for Haney and Salazar, they should make it through to the semiswith not too much trouble. Woods has had respectable matches with Jones this season, losing both 13-9 and 6-2, but it’s hard for me to predict an upset here. Haney and Salazar is a quite intriguing match, with Haney wrestling Jones extremely tough at sectionals and announcing himself as a semi-state title contender. However, while many people predicted Haney to best Jones at regionals, Jones put up a dominant performance against Haney, winning 9-0, showing that there is likely still a difference in levels there. I think Salazar is a little bit closer to Jones’s level, and placed significantly higher than Haney at the Al Smith (a lot of ECSS wrestlers wrestle here, so I will refer to the Al Smith tournament quite a bit), so I have Salazar edging out Haney here, but Jones should get the job done in the finals. As for the 3rd and 4th place match, Woods actually owns a win over Haney this season, 3-2, but I think that Haney will reverse this match, given how he has been wrestling as of recently. 113: DEATH DRAW: #2 Gavin Jendreas vs. #14 E’Shawn Tolbert Tolbert’s upset loss to #20 Seth Aubin in the regional finals means that he will have to wrestle Jendreas in the ticket round. With Tolbert not wrestling at the conference tournament, we have yet to see how this matchup goes, but given Jendreas’s pedigree compared to Tolbert’s, I don’t see an upset happening here. Top 4: Gavin Jendreas Seth Aubin Aiden Dallinger Liam Siburcrist As discussed, Jendreas will likely win the whole tournament, and I would be shocked if anything different happened. #11 Aiden Dallinger, #16 Liam Siburcrist, and #20 Seth Aubin are all heavy favorites to win their quarter brackets, so there’s not much to say there. I am, however, predicting an upset in the semis, with Aubin taking down Siburcrist. Siburcrist enters the semi-state with only one loss on his record, while Aubin has had a couple of road bumps this season. However, I think that Hobart’s schedule has battle tested Aubin, and he should even be the favorite going into this matchup. Their only common loss, Dallinger, stuck Siburcrist in the final seconds of their match, while Aubin only lost a 4-1 match, although I don’t exactly know what the score between Siburcrist and Dallinger was before the fall. Regardless, I pick Aubin as a slight favorite to win this matchup, before falling in the finals to Jendreas. For 3rd and 4th, I think Dallinger will get it done again against Siburcrist. 120: DEATH DRAW: #9 Dominic Brown vs. #15 Matthew Maldonado Brown’s loss to the #1 in the state at regionals means he has a top 16 opponent in Maldonado in the ticket round. Man, Indiana sure isn’t fair. I believe that Brown will win this matchup, as he has wrestled Ashton Jackson quite respectably, and has the tools to make a deep run in the state tournament. Don’t expect it to be a blowout though, as their sole match this season ended in a 1-0 decision for Brown. Brown has the edge, but not much of one. Top 4: Ashton Jackson Dominic Brown Dylan Bennett Isaiah Wilson I’ve already talked about the death draw, and absolutely nobody thinks that Jackson is going out earlier than state, so let’s talk about the second quarter bracket. #25 Isaiah Wilson gets a great draw as a 4th placer at regionals, getting UR Gunnar Sandefur. Now, I say great draw, because that’s what the rankings say, but note that a first round matchup against Sandefur means that Sandefur won his regional, and he did it against #13 Dylan Bennett. This means that Sandefur could be A LOT better than what the rankings indicate, so why not test it right off the bat against Wilson, who has been wrestling solid as well. He does come in as the 4th placer, but the Crown Point regional was quite brutal, with Ashton Jackson, Dominic Brown, #19 Sonny Sessa, who had brought Brown into overtime at sectionals, and then Wilson. There’s all sorts of “wrestling math” I could do here, to sway you all one way or the other, but I think that Wilson is going to win this match. No further justification needed. Sessa’s 3rd place finish at regionals, along with Bennett’s upset loss at regionals has them meeting ROUND ONE for an absolutely killer opening match. Honestly, I want to go with Sessa here, as he has been wrestling quite impressively, but I also know that Bennett is great in these situations, and if my memory serves me right, I chose him getting upset in last year’s ticket round, which did not happen, so I won’t make the same mistake again. Now, I think that Jackson over Wilson is an easy pick over Wilson, but what about Brown vs. Bennett? One is a stud freshman that has battled everybody in the state extremely tough, regardless of their resume or ranking, but Bennett has been there, done that, and will bring an excellent match to Brown. I think Brown edges him in this match, with Brown winning a 2-0 match against Bennett earlier in the year. If I was a betting man, I would think that the score would be the same, or maybe even 1-0. But that 0 on Bennett’s side of the score, along with Brown’s 1-0 match against Maldonado and TB win over Sessa tells me that this kid can ride, and this is a skill that is extremely handy in clutch situations, like a ticket round, or semi final bout that could make or break either of these wrestler’s dreams to end their season with a medal and a bracket. I think after the semis, predicting gets really easy, with Jackson likely taking out Brown, and Bennett likely winning over Wilson. 126: DEATH DRAW: #11 Mason Stanley vs. #16 Guillermo Rivera Stanley and Rivera are both previous state qualifiers, but only one of them gets to make the trip this year. While Stanley is the higher ranked wrestler, Rivera has been wrestling impressively these past couple of weeks, who’s dominated anybody not named Logan Frazier, and has even gone the distance with Frazier in the sectional and regional finals. Not many wrestlers at 126 can do that right now. So, I’m predicting an UPSET here with Rivera beating Stanley. Top 4: Logan Frazier Guillermo Rivera Ayden Campbell Alejandro Rivera The first quarter bracket features no state ranked wrestlers, but Alejandro Ramirez has spent some time as a state ranked wrestler this season, and has some solid wins to support his resume. Bentley Whitmer will likely be his ticket round opponent, where I think Ramirez will edge Whitmer to qualify for state. Although an unranked matchup, both of these wrestlers are seniors, and I expect this match to be a battle full of heart. As mentioned, I think Rivera will win the next quarter bracket, and #1 Logan Frazier should easily win his. I have a lot to say about the last quarter bracket though. A tough regional for #21 Ayden Campbell means he will have to battle fellow freshman #19 Will Mason in a first round state ranked matchup. Mason bested Campbell earlier this season at Al Smith, beating him 4-3, but both have results this season that indicate that they could be ranked higher, and both surely deserve to qualify for state. The winner of this bout takes on Nasir Christion, who has lost to Campbell this season only 4-3 (although he was majored 10-2 earlier this year). Christion is no easy ticket round match, and Christion will be fresh off of an UR first round matchup, while either Mason or Campbell will be finishing up a brawl. I feel like Campbell will beat Mason this time around, with Campbell’s peaks making him a dangerous wrestler for almost everybody in the state. Mason has demonstrated more consistency this season, but if the best of both wrestlers show up at semi-state, I think Campbell gets the win. The placement rounds, in my opinion, are pretty clear cut, with Rivera beating Ramirez, and Frazier beating Campbell. I also think Frazier beating Rivera again isn’t too hard to predict, and Campbell should get the job done against Ramirez. Interestingly enough, Campbell lost to Rivera only 7-6 at regionals, so while this matchup doesn’t get to happen at semi-state, it’s interesting to think how deep of a run Campbell could have made otherwise. 132: EXTRA DEADLY DEATH DRAW: #5 David Maldonado vs. #11 Hayden DeMarco Everyone should know by now to take the rankings at 132 with a grain of salt, because this weight class has been nothing but chaos this year, and to create even more chaos, we have a ticket round match between two returning medalists. To make things even more chaotic, Maldonado and DeMarco are 1-1 on the season, so this match is truly a coin flip. I think that DeMarco has had some spectacular moments this season, including a win over #4 Eleazar Walker at Al Smith, while Maldonado has wrestled consistently and won every match he was supposed to, aside from a single loss on the season to DeMarco. I’m taking DeMarco in this matchup, solely because I think DeMarco’s peaks are a little higher, and I genuinely think he could win the entire state tournament if he’s on it. Crazy to think that a title contender is going down this early, but what can you really do? Top 4: Eleazar Walker Griffin Van Tichelt Hayden DeMarco Hayden Fritz #4 Eleazar Walker should make it out of his quarter bracket quite comfortably, and as should #10 Griffin Van Tichelt. As for the last quarter bracket, there are two candidates that I see possibly grabbing the last ticket. Hayden Fritz has wrestled a solid season that has led him to a regional title and a favorite for qualifying for state. In the ticket round, Fritz will take on Galvin Shambaugh. Now, I’ve got to be honest, I don’t know too much about either of these wrestlers, but let me take you through the mental math that goes on in my head when I try to make predictions like these. One is ranked #6 in the SS, while the other is ranked #9, making Fritz a favorite already per the rankings. Looking at Fritz’s results, he has beaten SS #5 Caleb Oliver not once, but twice during the state series, showing that he is better than his ranking indicates. The only result from Shambaugh’s end that sticks out to me is a 5-3 loss to Bentley Whitmer. Whitmer is good, and might even qualify for state this year, but a loss from somebody a weight class below devalues Shambaugh’s odds in this match. So, I think that Fritz will probably win the matchup. Moving on to the semis, we get to see an Al Smith finals rematch in the semis with Walker and DeMarco. Interestingly enough, both Maldonado and Walker have one loss on the season, and those losses are to DeMarco, yet DeMarco comes in as the underdog for both matches. I will say, #11 is a tough ranking for DeMarco, who only has that ranking because Van Tichelt has been on an absolute tear, but also hasn’t gotten to test himself against another top opponent, leaving him as a #10 in the state, even though I think he will likely medal. Anyways, I think Walker gets his match back against DeMarco to send DeMarco to the 3rd place match. Meeting DeMarco there will be Fritz, as Van Tichelt will likely make the finals. In the battle of Hayden’s, I think DeMarco gets the job done. But what do we make of this finals match though? In a similar situation to Bennett and Sessa, we have the stud freshman with nothing to lose against the proven senior that wants to end his season on the top. Van Tichelt has beaten DeMarco, who has beaten Walker. We know that. But, Van Tichelt also has a number of losses on the season to wrestlers that aren’t quite as high caliber as Walker or DeMarco. So, while Van Tichelt has the tools to compete against the best, he hasn’t quite established himself yet in the conversation with the other title contenders here, in my opinion, at least. 138: Top 4: Cole Solomey Jeffrey Huyvaert Wesley Harper Kaptur Nowaczyk While by the terms that I defined “death” draw mean that there aren’t any death draws here by technicality, there are plenty of really ugly quarter brackets here. #1 Cole Solomey and #5 Jeffrey Huyvaert are the heavy favorites to make it out of their quarter brackets, and will both likely see each other in the semi-state finals for a regionals rematch that saw the superfreshman stun the returning state runner-up with a takedown in the final seconds of the bout. But let’s talk about the other wrestlers in this field first. In the second quarter bracket, we are treated to a first round state ranked matchup between #21 Luke Reid and #22 Christopher Bohn. Reid bested Bohn earlier this season, but Bohn is a talented wrestler that qualified for state last year and just barely missed out on a medal, so I think that Bohn certainly has the tools to reverse this match. The unfortunate part about this match is that the winner gets an even uglier matchup against #7 Wesley Harper, who also qualified for state last year, making for three state level competitors in one quarter bracket. I think that Harper will likely be the guy to make it out of this quarter bracket, but the result of Reid and Bohn is a little more up in the air. The bottom quarter bracket features yet another state ranked matchup with #11 Lucas Clement and #19 Kaptur Nowaczyk. Clement is a returning state qualifier, while Nowaczyk has had limited mat time this season. However, Nowaczyk was extremely close to punching his ticket last year, and should threaten to spoil Clement’s senior run. In fact, I’m even predicting an UPSET in this match, with Nowaczyk taking out Clement and ultimately punching his ticket for the first time. The semis are a little easier to predict here, with Solomey and Huyvaert winning their semis matches, but the placement matches are a little trickier, with Huyvaert establishing himself as a title contender at regionals, and leading the series between him and Solomey at 1-0. However, there is a ton of experience between the two wrestlers here, and I’m not yet ready to say that Huyvaert’s win makes him necessarily the better wrestler. I think that given how close the last match was, Solomey will take this match back and even the series. If the bracket works out, I would not be surprised to see this match run back at the state finals. For 3rd place, I think Harper gets it done over Nowaczyk, who I think will surprise some people this year, but will likely be outclassed and outweighed by Harper. 145: DEATH DRAW: #5 Wesley Smith vs. #13 Caleb Solomey An unfortunate draw for the older Solomey, who has put together an impressive season, but now gets Smith in the ticket round, who had quickly climbed the rankings this year with stellar performances at big tournaments such as Al Smith. I think Smith will get it done here, but Solomey won’t go down without a fight in his senior season. Top 4: Aidan Torres Anthony Bahl Wesley Smith Jayden Lewis Despite the rankings indicating a weaker quarter bracket, the top quarter bracket in this weight features two returning state qualifiers in #19 Jayden Lewis and Devin Wible. Both are up a considerable amount of weight from where they qualified, with Lewis coming all the way up from 120 last year, and Wible up from 126 two years ago when he punched his ticket. Wible’s adjustment to his bigger weight has been more gradual, and I think that this could be a factor in this matchup. However, I’m still picking Lewis to get it done in this matchup and punch his ticket. The other three quarter brackets here are a little more predictable, with three top 5 ranked wrestlers occupying these quarter brackets. #2 Anthony Bahl and #5 Wesley Smith is a match that intrigues me quite a bit. Smith showed that he could hang with the best with a 4-1 loss to #1 Aidan Torres at Al Smith, and I think that beating Bahl is very doable here. However, I have to give Bahl a lot of credit in this match as a returning state finalist, and I’m not ready to predict an upset here. The finals match might be interesting, but I’m a little bit skeptical to think that it will actually happen. Bahl has struggled with various injuries so far this season, and it makes sense that he wants to save himself for the state finals, as an overwhelming favorite to meet Torres again in the state finals. I’m not sure what everyone else’s opinions are on forfeiting matches like this, but I’d rather see a healthy Bahl against Torres than risk an injury earlier on in the state series for the sake of us wrestling fans. For the 3rd place match, I think Smith gets it done against Lewis, but this weight class makes a tough draw for any second placer at another semi-state. 152: Top 4: Bryce Denton Beau Brabender Adrian Pellot Hunter Miller This weight class is really interesting. The first notable thing to mention here is that #2 Anthony Rinehart is not in the bracket. I’m not exactly sure why he didn’t wrestle at regionals, but it’s really none of my business either, and I hope that Rinehart is healthy and ready for next year’s state series. The only notable thing in this bracket is #12 Bryce Denton, who is up all the way from 138 after returning from an injury. He sits comfortably in the top bracket as a favorite to make the finals after an upset over #7 Beau Brabender in the regional finals. The qualifiers here are pretty clear cut, with Denton, #15 Adrian Pellot, Brabender, and #14 Hunter Miller punching their tickets with relative ease. It’s when the semis start that things start to get a little trickier. Denton matches up against Pellot in the semis, and I don’t think this is an easy win for Denton at all. Pellot has competed well against everybody in the state, even having a one point match against Rinehart earlier this year. I think Denton wins, but a one point match should be expected. In the other semi final match, Brabender and Miller will wrestle for the third time this season, with Brabender winning both meetups by a 4 point margin. I don’t really expect the result to change here. You can honestly flip a coin in the finals here, but Denton is likely the favorite going into this matchup, and in my opinion should win this match again. Pellot and Miller is another coin flip, but I’ve been impressed by some of Pellot’s results this season, and I think he is capable of turning some heads in the final weeks of the state series. 160: EXTRA DEADLY DEATH DRAW: #6 AJ Steenbeke vs. #12 Kenneth Bisping Steenbeke has had some tough semi-states and Friday night draws throughout his career. In his freshman year, he wrestled Noah Hollendonner and lost 3-2, who would go on to be the state runner-up that year, while Steenbeke would lose Friday night to eventual 6th placer Jed Perry. His sophomore year, he lost 8-5 in the semis to Orlando Cruz (who everyone should know by now is really good) and drew eventual 4th placer and current D1 starter Andrew Wilson. Last year, Steenbeke drew against Goodwin in the semis to take 3rd, and got the worst possible Friday night draw in eventual runner-up Kade Law. After suffering brutal draws and defeats during his first three years, what is he rewarded with? How about another returning state qualifier in the ticket round? Bisping is as tough as they come, and while Steenbeke is the favorite, the upset is certainly possible here. Give me Steenbeke in this match, but it should be close. Top 4: Sam Goin AJ Steenbeke Ben Shaffer Cameron Crisp Aside from the brutal draw featuring Steenbeke and Bisping, the only quarter brackets here feature only one state ranked wrestler a piece, with #15 Ben Shaffer, #17 Cameron Crisp, and #1 Sam Goin all looking to breeze through to the placement rounds. I think the finalists for this weight class are pretty clear cut too, with Steenbeke avoiding Goin until the finals, a draw that will hopefully help him on his quest to receive a medal at state for the first time. I don’t really think that Steenbeke will win, but I anticipate that this match will be a lot closer than some people think, with Steenbeke wrestling very well as of recently. Shaffer and Crisp for 3rd place should be very close, but I’m giving the edge to the higher ranked Shaffer, who is always in a match and has several tricks up his sleeve, something I know from both watching him and scraping with him. 170: FIRST ROUND DEATH DRAW: #5 Aidan Costello vs. #14 Zymarion Hollyfield In possibly one of the most brutal first round matches in the entire state, Costello and Hollyfield will battle for a spot in the ticket round, where the winner will be heavily favored against #25 Daeveon Cheeks. Hollyfield has put together a fantastic season this year, but an upset loss to #18 Gavin Malone, and an unusual 10-4 loss to Triton senior Elijah Cox has him drawing a top 5 opponent right away. Funnily enough, losing this third place match actually improves his chances of going to state, with Cox likely wrestling #2 Cody Goodwin in the ticket round, so perhaps Penn studied the algorithm before that match and told Hollyfield to lose? Unlikely, and I say this with no intention to diminish Cox’s big win over Hollyfield, but it is funny how the brackets work out. With Costello pinning Hollyfield earlier in the year, I expect that Costello will win again, although I feel like a pin is unlikely. Top 4: Goodwin Costello Valdez Malone Goodwin should easily make his way to the finals in this bracket. The quarter bracket below is pretty interesting, featuring a first round state ranked matchup in Malone and #21 Manolo Hood. Given that Malone is coming off of a big win over Hollyfield, and has claimed several other impressive wins this season, I think he wins this match by a decent margin. If Malone is starting to peak at the right time, anybody in the state should be nervous to wrestle him. As mentioned, I think Costello gets it done over Hollyfield to eventually punch his ticket, and likewise, I think #15 Isaac Valdez makes it through to the semis. The semis don’t leave too many questions for spectators, with Goodwin and Costello leading as heavy favorites to make the finals. I do wonder how Goodwin and Costello match up in the finals. With Goodwin absent from this year’s Al Smith, a potential showdown between the two did not go down, meaning that there is not a lot of information to comfortably predict this matchup. Goodwin is definitely the favorite here, but Costello is a problematic wrestler for many, due to his height, and could invalidate a lot of Goodwin’s offense. I’m taking Goodwin here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Costello kept it close. For the 3rd place match, I have to go with Valdez as the winner here. To be completely honest, I was going to choose Malone here to win, as I knew that Malone had lost to Valdez in the regional finals, but figured that it was a close match, and thought that Malone could reverse the decision. After all, he had just beat Hollyfield, and Hollyfield had beat Valdez in the sectional finals. After rechecking the score of Valdez and Malone to include it in this write up, I found out that Valdez had TECH FALLED Malone, a result that makes it impossible for me to choose Malone as the winner only a week later. When making predictions, there are results that are sometimes anomalies, and I think that this is definitely one of them, and expect the rematch to be much closer, but I can’t look at a tech fall and predict that the wrestler on the receiving end of the tech fall will win. I could even be convinced that Valdez might make a finals appearance this year, but Costello has wrestled very well this season, and I’m confident in my predictions at this weight. 182: DEATH DRAW: #10 Connor Cervantes vs. #12 Jaxson Walters Two seniors, both ranked in the top 16, neither qualifying for state yet in their careers, and now only one of them will get the chance. Cervantes opens up as the favorite as the higher ranked wrestler, as well as boasting an undefeated record at this point in the season, while Walters is coming off of a tough loss to freshman Vinny Freeman in the regional finals. I think the momentum is in Cervantes’s favor, making this a bit of an easier pick for me than it otherwise would be. Top 4: Orlando Cruz Connor Cervantes Ethan Popp Ethan Risner Lots to breakdown in this weight class. First and foremost, nobody is touching #1 Orlando Cruz in this semi-state. Cruz has been incredibly dominant this season, and I expect that Cruz scores at least 60 points this weekend. As for the rest of the field, things are a little more interesting. In the second quarter bracket, #22 Ethan Popp is the heavy favorite to punch his ticket, likely wrestling Cameron Zimmerman in the ticket round. They have no common opponents, but Zimmerman has been competitive against several highly ranked wrestlers this season, and is not a free ticket by any means. In the last quarter bracket, Vinny Freeman is rewarded for his regionals win with a top 16 opponent in #16 Ethan Risner. Now, a lot of people might want to pick Freeman here after his win over Walters, and a 14-6 major decision at that, but this win is Freeman’s only substantial win of the season, which makes me think that this result could be one of those anomalies that just happen every once in a while. This match will be great for Freeman to show if he’s actually at that state level, or if he just had a good regional. Risner has been consistent this season, and I don’t see him losing if he’s wrestling solid. Cervantes and Popp will hit in the top semi final match, where I think Cervantes will win pretty comfortably. Cruz should also win pretty comfortably in the other semi final match. I think that Cruz also wins pretty nicely over Cervantes, but for 3rd place, we have a clash of Ethans, and the rankings don’t really help. Risner is the higher state ranked wrestler, but the lower semi-state ranked wrestler, while Popp is lower in the state but higher in the semi-state. Popp is an interesting wrestler to try to predict, because he doesn’t have too many matches this year that are good for comparison with the rest of the field. Their only common opponent that they have is Matthew McCrum, who they both beat by decision. So, I think I’m going to go with Risner, mostly because he has been battle tested a little more than Popp has this season, so that’s really all I can go off of. 195: DEATH DRAW: #5 Christian Chavez vs. #13 Trent Kersey Kersey has had a stellar season prior to the state series, vaulting his way up to #13 in the state after an incredible Al Smith consolation run, and several other solid wins. However, Kersey has struggled to maintain this level during the state series, losing to Sam Chambers at sectionals, and narrowly escaping an early elimination in the regional blood round, winning in overtime to make the semi-state tournament. Now, he will have to escape elimination again against one of the best 195 pounders in the state in Christian Chavez. I think that Chavez has been wrestling fantastically, and I doubt Kersey will be able to stun Chavez in the ticket round, but Kersey certainly has the tools to wrestle against the best in the state. Top 4: Christian Chavez Anthony White Neil Johnson Sam Chambers While Chavez and #8 Anthony White are easy picks to make it out of their quarter brackets, the other two quarter brackets aren’t quite that simple. In the second quarter bracket, there are three semi-state ranked wrestlers looking to punch their ticket for the first time. The highest ranked of these wrestlers is SS #7 Joshua McKelvin. He wrestles Sam Chambers in the first round, who has shown that he is much better than his #11 ranking in the semi-state with his win over Kersey at sectionals. Although Kersey was able to reverse that result against Chambers at regionals, Chambers wrestled the rematch close enough for me to give him extra value when it comes to deciding the victor here. The winner of this match will get SS #10 Bazle Owens in the ticket round, who is just as competitive as the other two SS ranked wrestlers in this weight class, and can most certainly steal the ticket here. At the end of the day, I think I have to go with the lowest ranked wrestler here, as he has shown tremendous growth throughout the state series, and while he is a 4th placer coming into this tournament, it should be noted that the wrestlers that placed above him were ranked 8th, 11th, and 13th, respectively, and it would be hard for most wrestlers to place higher than 4th in that field. The last quarter bracket features a state ranked matchup in #21 James Veal and #11 Neil Johnson. Johnson has had a great season this year and is the favorite heading into this matchup, but Veal is capable of winning big matches, beating Henry Kukelhan in the Al Smith quarterfinals for a 2 seed upset. Veal hasn’t been entirely consistent since then, but the best version of Veal could get the job done here, although I am ultimately picking Johnson to win here. White should beat Chambers, who he has already defeated in the state series by a 13-4 major decision. Chavez and Johnson should be a close match, but I could see Chavez blowing it out in the third period with his aggressive handfighting and ability to find attacks. Chavez and White in the finals should be fun. They haven’t wrestled yet this season, but both have had great moments this season, and I think it will be very competitive. Chavez gets the nod here because his peaks this season have been a little more impressive, which includes an Al Smith title over Kaden McConnell, a result that gets much more stock after McConnell’s upset over Gunner Henry. As for the 3rd place match, I think that Johnson will win pretty easily, as indicated by his 47 second fall over Chambers in the regional semis. 220: Top 4: Will Clark Cole Chicoine Jonathan Neese Everett McClelland The only quarter bracket here that I can’t comfortably predict is the first one. The highest ranked wrestler coming into this quarter bracket is #22 Clayton Deutscher, who also happens to be the 4th placer coming into this quarter bracket as well (which should tell you something about the Crown Point regional). He will match up against Everett McClelland in the first round, where I believe that McClelland will get the upset win. Now, the justification for this gets a little ugly, but let me run you all through it. McClelland and Deutscher have one common opponent that I could find: LaPorte’s very own Devon Duschek. Deutscher beat Duschek in an overtime match at sectionals, while McClelland lost to Duschek by a first period fall. However, James Veal pinned Duschek, while McClelland pinned Veal. So, we’re put in a little bit of a tricky prediction situation here. Let’s look at Kaleb Abad. Abad eliminated Duschek at regionals with a fall, in addition to another fall against Duschek earlier in the year. Abad only lost 1-0 to Deutscher at regionals. With all of this information, I think that McClelland gets the nod here, as it seems like his loss to Duschek was perhaps an outlying result that should not distract you all from some of his more solid performances. With that out of the way, I think that it is pretty easy to assume that Will Clark will probably win semi-state at this weight, so McClelland will likely be going for third. #13 Jonathan Neese and #20 Cole Chicoine is a bit of a trickier match to figure out the winner of. They have no common opponents, but Chicoine does have some solid results under his name, including two wins over other competitors in the field, and a slim 8-6 loss to Alex Rose. I feel like I have to give the nod here to the lower ranked wrestler, with Neese being overall unproven at his ranking, which could of course be proven this weekend and I could be completely wrong, but I think that Chicoine overall has a stronger resume, aside from his ranking. For the 3rd place match, I think Neese will get it done over McClelland. 285: Top 4: Paul Clark Aramis McNutt Anthony Popi Peyton Kendall While the ticket round matchup in the top quarter bracket is by technicality not a death draw by what I defined a death draw to be, it’s basically one. #13 Jordan Cree takes on #17 Peyton Kendall in a battle of returning state qualifiers. Kendall has had some great results this season, but he’s also taken some unusual losses that make me not so confident that he can get the upset here. On the other hand, Cree has been great this season, losing only one match, but a little bit untested on the season as well. I think if Kendall wrestles his best match, he can pull the upset here, and that’s what I’m picking him to do. Every other quarter bracket has a clear favorite, with #11 Aramis McNutt, #4 Anthony Popi, and #2 Paul Clark all likely punching their tickets. We are getting treated to a #2 vs. #4 match in the semis with Clark and Popi stepping into the circle to wrestle. Despite Popi’s ranking, I still feel like Clark is on another level against any heavyweight not named Leighton Jones, and he should win this match by a comfortable margin. Kendall vs. McNutt will be a rematch from earlier this season, where McNutt won a commanding 11-5 match. I expect it to be closer this time around, but I don’t think the overall result changes. I think Clark wins pretty easily in the finals, while Popi and Kendall get a rematch of their regional finals match, where Popi won a slim 2-1 match. This certainly makes me think that Kendall could get this win, but Popi has been overall better and more consistent on the season, so I am more comfortable choosing Popi here despite the razor thin match just a week prior. Lots of writing done for this semi-state breakdown, about 14 pages single spaced (including all of the spaces between segments), but I genuinely do enjoy writing these. I won’t say anything more here, especially since I plan on doing a state breakdown next week, and I think that will probably be the pinnacle of my write-ups thus far, especially since I won’t have a tournament to make weight for to distract me from doing research and breaking matches down and all of that. See you all next week! Great Write up . Glad Lowell be a part of the potential Extra Extra Death Draws . It will be fun and good luck to everyone who made it there. MUSKEEWRESTLER and littleblack.backpack 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TysonNisley Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, JORVILLE said: Great Write up . Glad Lowell be a part of the potential Extra Extra Death Draws . It will be fun and good luck to everyone who made it there. Haha yeah, I didn't even realize that most of the death draws have a Lowell kid in them. Brutal. JORVILLE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JORVILLE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, TysonNisley said: Haha yeah, I didn't even realize that most of the death draws have a Lowell kid in them. Brutal. Yes very nice reward for finishing higher up out of the CP Regional. Not just our kids who finished in 4th but multiple 4 seeds out of the CP Regional seemed to get favorable draws. Paycheck141 and littleblack.backpack 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
busstogate Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, TysonNisley said: Once again, let me know if you see any typos or incorrect information, so I can correct these issues. Hi Tyson. Great job once again. I was riveted. Is Zar Walker a senior? I recalled seeing he was a junior. MUSKEEWRESTLER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TysonNisley Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, busstogate said: Hi Tyson. Great job once again. I was riveted. Is Zar Walker a senior? I recalled seeing he was a junior. He is a junior, that's my bad. And thank you for reading! busstogate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUSKEEWRESTLER Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 You hit it out of the park AGAIN!! Appreciate the time, effort, and the fact that you do your best to not be to biased. Great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4U2NV Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Great job Ty! Your write ups are very entertaining. I look forward to reading your posts. MUSKEEWRESTLER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbell Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Quality...Quality...stuff... Great write up! MUSKEEWRESTLER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caleb Spires Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Great work as usual! MUSKEEWRESTLER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachM Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Solid write up, but time for my annual comment. 5 advancing from the Logansport regional? I'll once again take the over Brandon Barton and bomber_bob 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper.Wilkins Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 20 hours ago, TysonNisley said: You know, as a wrestler that has competed twice in the East Chicago semi-state and made it out once, I feel obligated to say that the East Chicago semi-state is the hardest in the state. Not only is this probably untrue (because the Evansville semi-state is absolutely killer this year), but with the Indianamat brackets having state rankings next to each wrestler, it’s really convenient and easy for me to break down each semi-state and determine which one has the most depth, the most title contenders, and things of that sort. I’ve had a lot of fun during the past couple write-ups beginning with a sort of statistical breakdown of anything interesting in the tournament I am covering, and I hope that you all find it entertaining as well. So, let’s see which semi-state is actually the hardest this year: State Ranked Wrestlers: ECSS- 77/350 = 22% NHSS- 86/350 = 24.57% NCSS- 79/350 = 22.57% EVSS- 90/350 = 25.71% (18 state ranked wrestlers are not accounted for here, due to some being knocked out early, and a margin of error on my part when counting these numbers up, although the numbers and percentages are for the most part correct, minus or plus no more than 1 or 2) Top 8 Ranked Wrestlers: ECSS- 23/112 = 20.54% NHSS- 26/112 = 23.21% NCSS- 23/112 = 20.54% EVSS- 37/112 = 33.04% #1 Ranked Wrestlers: ECSS- 7/14 = 50% NHSS- 1/14 = 7.14% NCSS- 2/14 = 14.29% EVSS- 4/14 = 28.57% So, the Evansville semi-state looks very strong through all three percentages, claiming the most state ranked wrestlers and top 8 ranked wrestlers, while having the second most #1 ranked wrestlers. The New Haven semi-state performs very well here and shatters its previous perception as the “weakest semi-state,” having the second most state ranked wrestlers and top 8 ranked wrestlers, although they only have #1 ranked wrestler. The New Castle semi-state takes third in all categories. Finally, while the East Chicago semi-state does come in last in the first two categories, we do have 7 of the 14 #1 ranked wrestlers, which is a very impressive statistic. I know Crown Point does claim a lot of those, but there are still 3 #1 ranked wrestlers in this semi-state not from Crown Point, which would compare impressively against Evansville. Additionally, if we got rid of Crown Point entirely, the Evansville semi-state would actually not gain a single #1 ranked wrestler, with New Castle getting one more and New Haven getting THREE more. I should also say that without Brownsburg in the picture, the East Chicago semi-state gets 2 more #1 ranked wrestlers. And for the fun of it, if both Crown Point and Brownsburg are hypothetically not participating in this year’s state series, then the New Haven semi-state leads with 5 #1 ranked wrestlers, then New Castle follows with 4, then East Chicago comes behind with 3, and Evansville now comes in last with 2. This statistic really doesn’t mean too much, but I thought it would be fun to examine these semi-states without the two monster programs of Indiana wrestling that will likely be your state champs and runner-ups, in one order or the other. Overall, all of these semi-states look to have strong points, and the argument to which one is the best comes down to what you value more when making this determination. Anyways, that was fun, let’s make some predictions. Before I get started, I want to explain the format I will be using for a little. In every weight class, if I see a death draw, I will make sure to highlight it and talk about it separately. I am defining a death draw as any matchup between two top SIXTEEN ranked opponents, where both of the wrestlers, per the rankings, should go to state. I will make sure to give extra attention to draws that are extra brutal. Then, I will make my predictions, and give my reasoning for my picks, going one quarter bracket at a time. After the quarter brackets are talked about, I will talk about the top 4 at that semi-state, before moving on to the next weight class. I’ve written a lot now, with no predictions, so let me shut up about other stuff and talk about this bracket. 106: Top 4: Mason Jones Kaleb Salazar Logan Haney Cameron Woods #6 Mason Jones is the heavy favorite to win this weight class, and will likely breeze his way into the finals. The more interesting quarter bracket for me is the one below, with #25 Cameron Woods and #24 Xavier Chavez. Both have put together solid seasons, and could realistically win this matchup. Woods won his regional with a major decision over Joy Cantu, while Chavez fell to #17 Kaleb Salazar in an 8-5 bout. There really isn’t too much information that indicates that this matchup will go either way, but Woods does have a solid win over #22 Logan Haney, while Chavez doesn’t yet have a state ranked win on his record (although he did beat Bissmeyer when he was ranked). I give Woods this match by a slim margin. As for Haney and Salazar, they should make it through to the semiswith not too much trouble. Woods has had respectable matches with Jones this season, losing both 13-9 and 6-2, but it’s hard for me to predict an upset here. Haney and Salazar is a quite intriguing match, with Haney wrestling Jones extremely tough at sectionals and announcing himself as a semi-state title contender. However, while many people predicted Haney to best Jones at regionals, Jones put up a dominant performance against Haney, winning 9-0, showing that there is likely still a difference in levels there. I think Salazar is a little bit closer to Jones’s level, and placed significantly higher than Haney at the Al Smith (a lot of ECSS wrestlers wrestle here, so I will refer to the Al Smith tournament quite a bit), so I have Salazar edging out Haney here, but Jones should get the job done in the finals. As for the 3rd and 4th place match, Woods actually owns a win over Haney this season, 3-2, but I think that Haney will reverse this match, given how he has been wrestling as of recently. 113: DEATH DRAW: #2 Gavin Jendreas vs. #14 E’Shawn Tolbert Tolbert’s upset loss to #20 Seth Aubin in the regional finals means that he will have to wrestle Jendreas in the ticket round. With Tolbert not wrestling at the conference tournament, we have yet to see how this matchup goes, but given Jendreas’s pedigree compared to Tolbert’s, I don’t see an upset happening here. Top 4: Gavin Jendreas Seth Aubin Aiden Dallinger Liam Siburcrist As discussed, Jendreas will likely win the whole tournament, and I would be shocked if anything different happened. #11 Aiden Dallinger, #16 Liam Siburcrist, and #20 Seth Aubin are all heavy favorites to win their quarter brackets, so there’s not much to say there. I am, however, predicting an upset in the semis, with Aubin taking down Siburcrist. Siburcrist enters the semi-state with only one loss on his record, while Aubin has had a couple of road bumps this season. However, I think that Hobart’s schedule has battle tested Aubin, and he should even be the favorite going into this matchup. Their only common loss, Dallinger, stuck Siburcrist in the final seconds of their match, while Aubin only lost a 4-1 match, although I don’t exactly know what the score between Siburcrist and Dallinger was before the fall. Regardless, I pick Aubin as a slight favorite to win this matchup, before falling in the finals to Jendreas. For 3rd and 4th, I think Dallinger will get it done again against Siburcrist. 120: DEATH DRAW: #9 Dominic Brown vs. #15 Matthew Maldonado Brown’s loss to the #1 in the state at regionals means he has a top 16 opponent in Maldonado in the ticket round. Man, Indiana sure isn’t fair. I believe that Brown will win this matchup, as he has wrestled Ashton Jackson quite respectably, and has the tools to make a deep run in the state tournament. Don’t expect it to be a blowout though, as their sole match this season ended in a 1-0 decision for Brown. Brown has the edge, but not much of one. Top 4: Ashton Jackson Dominic Brown Dylan Bennett Isaiah Wilson I’ve already talked about the death draw, and absolutely nobody thinks that Jackson is going out earlier than state, so let’s talk about the second quarter bracket. #25 Isaiah Wilson gets a great draw as a 4th placer at regionals, getting UR Gunnar Sandefur. Now, I say great draw, because that’s what the rankings say, but note that a first round matchup against Sandefur means that Sandefur won his regional, and he did it against #13 Dylan Bennett. This means that Sandefur could be A LOT better than what the rankings indicate, so why not test it right off the bat against Wilson, who has been wrestling solid as well. He does come in as the 4th placer, but the Crown Point regional was quite brutal, with Ashton Jackson, Dominic Brown, #19 Sonny Sessa, who had brought Brown into overtime at sectionals, and then Wilson. There’s all sorts of “wrestling math” I could do here, to sway you all one way or the other, but I think that Wilson is going to win this match. No further justification needed. Sessa’s 3rd place finish at regionals, along with Bennett’s upset loss at regionals has them meeting ROUND ONE for an absolutely killer opening match. Honestly, I want to go with Sessa here, as he has been wrestling quite impressively, but I also know that Bennett is great in these situations, and if my memory serves me right, I chose him getting upset in last year’s ticket round, which did not happen, so I won’t make the same mistake again. Now, I think that Jackson over Wilson is an easy pick over Wilson, but what about Brown vs. Bennett? One is a stud freshman that has battled everybody in the state extremely tough, regardless of their resume or ranking, but Bennett has been there, done that, and will bring an excellent match to Brown. I think Brown edges him in this match, with Brown winning a 2-0 match against Bennett earlier in the year. If I was a betting man, I would think that the score would be the same, or maybe even 1-0. But that 0 on Bennett’s side of the score, along with Brown’s 1-0 match against Maldonado and TB win over Sessa tells me that this kid can ride, and this is a skill that is extremely handy in clutch situations, like a ticket round, or semi final bout that could make or break either of these wrestler’s dreams to end their season with a medal and a bracket. I think after the semis, predicting gets really easy, with Jackson likely taking out Brown, and Bennett likely winning over Wilson. 126: DEATH DRAW: #11 Mason Stanley vs. #16 Guillermo Rivera Stanley and Rivera are both previous state qualifiers, but only one of them gets to make the trip this year. While Stanley is the higher ranked wrestler, Rivera has been wrestling impressively these past couple of weeks, who’s dominated anybody not named Logan Frazier, and has even gone the distance with Frazier in the sectional and regional finals. Not many wrestlers at 126 can do that right now. So, I’m predicting an UPSET here with Rivera beating Stanley. Top 4: Logan Frazier Guillermo Rivera Ayden Campbell Alejandro Rivera The first quarter bracket features no state ranked wrestlers, but Alejandro Ramirez has spent some time as a state ranked wrestler this season, and has some solid wins to support his resume. Bentley Whitmer will likely be his ticket round opponent, where I think Ramirez will edge Whitmer to qualify for state. Although an unranked matchup, both of these wrestlers are seniors, and I expect this match to be a battle full of heart. As mentioned, I think Rivera will win the next quarter bracket, and #1 Logan Frazier should easily win his. I have a lot to say about the last quarter bracket though. A tough regional for #21 Ayden Campbell means he will have to battle fellow freshman #19 Will Mason in a first round state ranked matchup. Mason bested Campbell earlier this season at Al Smith, beating him 4-3, but both have results this season that indicate that they could be ranked higher, and both surely deserve to qualify for state. The winner of this bout takes on Nasir Christion, who has lost to Campbell this season only 4-3 (although he was majored 10-2 earlier this year). Christion is no easy ticket round match, and Christion will be fresh off of an UR first round matchup, while either Mason or Campbell will be finishing up a brawl. I feel like Campbell will beat Mason this time around, with Campbell’s peaks making him a dangerous wrestler for almost everybody in the state. Mason has demonstrated more consistency this season, but if the best of both wrestlers show up at semi-state, I think Campbell gets the win. The placement rounds, in my opinion, are pretty clear cut, with Rivera beating Ramirez, and Frazier beating Campbell. I also think Frazier beating Rivera again isn’t too hard to predict, and Campbell should get the job done against Ramirez. Interestingly enough, Campbell lost to Rivera only 7-6 at regionals, so while this matchup doesn’t get to happen at semi-state, it’s interesting to think how deep of a run Campbell could have made otherwise. 132: EXTRA DEADLY DEATH DRAW: #5 David Maldonado vs. #11 Hayden DeMarco Everyone should know by now to take the rankings at 132 with a grain of salt, because this weight class has been nothing but chaos this year, and to create even more chaos, we have a ticket round match between two returning medalists. To make things even more chaotic, Maldonado and DeMarco are 1-1 on the season, so this match is truly a coin flip. I think that DeMarco has had some spectacular moments this season, including a win over #4 Eleazar Walker at Al Smith, while Maldonado has wrestled consistently and won every match he was supposed to, aside from a single loss on the season to DeMarco. I’m taking DeMarco in this matchup, solely because I think DeMarco’s peaks are a little higher, and I genuinely think he could win the entire state tournament if he’s on it. Crazy to think that a title contender is going down this early, but what can you really do? Top 4: Eleazar Walker Griffin Van Tichelt Hayden DeMarco Hayden Fritz #4 Eleazar Walker should make it out of his quarter bracket quite comfortably, and as should #10 Griffin Van Tichelt. As for the last quarter bracket, there are two candidates that I see possibly grabbing the last ticket. Hayden Fritz has wrestled a solid season that has led him to a regional title and a favorite for qualifying for state. In the ticket round, Fritz will take on Galvin Shambaugh. Now, I’ve got to be honest, I don’t know too much about either of these wrestlers, but let me take you through the mental math that goes on in my head when I try to make predictions like these. One is ranked #6 in the SS, while the other is ranked #9, making Fritz a favorite already per the rankings. Looking at Fritz’s results, he has beaten SS #5 Caleb Oliver not once, but twice during the state series, showing that he is better than his ranking indicates. The only result from Shambaugh’s end that sticks out to me is a 5-3 loss to Bentley Whitmer. Whitmer is good, and might even qualify for state this year, but a loss from somebody a weight class below devalues Shambaugh’s odds in this match. So, I think that Fritz will probably win the matchup. Moving on to the semis, we get to see an Al Smith finals rematch in the semis with Walker and DeMarco. Interestingly enough, both Maldonado and Walker have one loss on the season, and those losses are to DeMarco, yet DeMarco comes in as the underdog for both matches. I will say, #11 is a tough ranking for DeMarco, who only has that ranking because Van Tichelt has been on an absolute tear, but also hasn’t gotten to test himself against another top opponent, leaving him as a #10 in the state, even though I think he will likely medal. Anyways, I think Walker gets his match back against DeMarco to send DeMarco to the 3rd place match. Meeting DeMarco there will be Fritz, as Van Tichelt will likely make the finals. In the battle of Hayden’s, I think DeMarco gets the job done. But what do we make of this finals match though? In a similar situation to Bennett and Sessa, we have the stud freshman with nothing to lose against a proven competitor that wants to end his season on the top. Van Tichelt has beaten DeMarco, who has beaten Walker. We know that. But, Van Tichelt also has a number of losses on the season to wrestlers that aren’t quite as high caliber as Walker or DeMarco. So, while Van Tichelt has the tools to compete against the best, he hasn’t quite established himself yet in the conversation with the other title contenders here, in my opinion, at least. 138: Top 4: Cole Solomey Jeffrey Huyvaert Wesley Harper Kaptur Nowaczyk While by the terms that I defined “death” draw mean that there aren’t any death draws here by technicality, there are plenty of really ugly quarter brackets here. #1 Cole Solomey and #5 Jeffrey Huyvaert are the heavy favorites to make it out of their quarter brackets, and will both likely see each other in the semi-state finals for a regionals rematch that saw the superfreshman stun the returning state runner-up with a takedown in the final seconds of the bout. But let’s talk about the other wrestlers in this field first. In the second quarter bracket, we are treated to a first round state ranked matchup between #21 Luke Reid and #22 Christopher Bohn. Reid bested Bohn earlier this season, but Bohn is a talented wrestler that qualified for state last year and just barely missed out on a medal, so I think that Bohn certainly has the tools to reverse this match. The unfortunate part about this match is that the winner gets an even uglier matchup against #7 Wesley Harper, who also qualified for state last year, making for three state level competitors in one quarter bracket. I think that Harper will likely be the guy to make it out of this quarter bracket, but the result of Reid and Bohn is a little more up in the air. The bottom quarter bracket features yet another state ranked matchup with #11 Lucas Clement and #19 Kaptur Nowaczyk. Clement is a returning state qualifier, while Nowaczyk has had limited mat time this season. However, Nowaczyk was extremely close to punching his ticket last year, and should threaten to spoil Clement’s senior run. In fact, I’m even predicting an UPSET in this match, with Nowaczyk taking out Clement and ultimately punching his ticket for the first time. The semis are a little easier to predict here, with Solomey and Huyvaert winning their semis matches, but the placement matches are a little trickier, with Huyvaert establishing himself as a title contender at regionals, and leading the series between him and Solomey at 1-0. However, there is a ton of experience between the two wrestlers here, and I’m not yet ready to say that Huyvaert’s win makes him necessarily the better wrestler. I think that given how close the last match was, Solomey will take this match back and even the series. If the bracket works out, I would not be surprised to see this match run back at the state finals. For 3rd place, I think Harper gets it done over Nowaczyk, who I think will surprise some people this year, but will likely be outclassed and outweighed by Harper. 145: DEATH DRAW: #5 Wesley Smith vs. #13 Caleb Solomey An unfortunate draw for the older Solomey, who has put together an impressive season, but now gets Smith in the ticket round, who had quickly climbed the rankings this year with stellar performances at big tournaments such as Al Smith. I think Smith will get it done here, but Solomey won’t go down without a fight in his senior season. Top 4: Aidan Torres Anthony Bahl Wesley Smith Jayden Lewis Despite the rankings indicating a weaker quarter bracket, the top quarter bracket in this weight features two returning state qualifiers in #19 Jayden Lewis and Devin Wible. Both are up a considerable amount of weight from where they qualified, with Lewis coming all the way up from 120 last year, and Wible up from 126 two years ago when he punched his ticket. Wible’s adjustment to his bigger weight has been more gradual, and I think that this could be a factor in this matchup. However, I’m still picking Lewis to get it done in this matchup and punch his ticket. The other three quarter brackets here are a little more predictable, with three top 5 ranked wrestlers occupying these quarter brackets. #2 Anthony Bahl and #5 Wesley Smith is a match that intrigues me quite a bit. Smith showed that he could hang with the best with a 4-1 loss to #1 Aidan Torres at Al Smith, and I think that beating Bahl is very doable here. However, I have to give Bahl a lot of credit in this match as a returning state finalist, and I’m not ready to predict an upset here. The finals match might be interesting, but I’m a little bit skeptical to think that it will actually happen. Bahl has struggled with various injuries so far this season, and it makes sense that he wants to save himself for the state finals, as an overwhelming favorite to meet Torres again in the state finals. I’m not sure what everyone else’s opinions are on forfeiting matches like this, but I’d rather see a healthy Bahl against Torres than risk an injury earlier on in the state series for the sake of us wrestling fans. For the 3rd place match, I think Smith gets it done against Lewis, but this weight class makes a tough draw for any second placer at another semi-state. 152: Top 4: Bryce Denton Beau Brabender Adrian Pellot Hunter Miller This weight class is really interesting. The first notable thing to mention here is that #2 Anthony Rinehart is not in the bracket. I’m not exactly sure why he didn’t wrestle at regionals, but it’s really none of my business either, and I hope that Rinehart is healthy and ready for next year’s state series. The only notable thing in this bracket is #12 Bryce Denton, who is up all the way from 138 after returning from an injury. He sits comfortably in the top bracket as a favorite to make the finals after an upset over #7 Beau Brabender in the regional finals. The qualifiers here are pretty clear cut, with Denton, #15 Adrian Pellot, Brabender, and #14 Hunter Miller punching their tickets with relative ease. It’s when the semis start that things start to get a little trickier. Denton matches up against Pellot in the semis, and I don’t think this is an easy win for Denton at all. Pellot has competed well against everybody in the state, even having a one point match against Rinehart earlier this year. I think Denton wins, but a one point match should be expected. In the other semi final match, Brabender and Miller will wrestle for the third time this season, with Brabender winning both meetups by a 4 point margin. I don’t really expect the result to change here. You can honestly flip a coin in the finals here, but Denton is likely the favorite going into this matchup, and in my opinion should win this match again. Pellot and Miller is another coin flip, but I’ve been impressed by some of Pellot’s results this season, and I think he is capable of turning some heads in the final weeks of the state series. 160: EXTRA DEADLY DEATH DRAW: #6 AJ Steenbeke vs. #12 Kenneth Bisping Steenbeke has had some tough semi-states and Friday night draws throughout his career. In his freshman year, he wrestled Noah Hollendonner and lost 3-2, who would go on to be the state runner-up that year, while Steenbeke would lose Friday night to eventual 6th placer Jed Perry. His sophomore year, he lost 8-5 in the semis to Orlando Cruz (who everyone should know by now is really good) and drew eventual 4th placer and current D1 starter Andrew Wilson. Last year, Steenbeke drew against Goodwin in the semis to take 3rd, and got the worst possible Friday night draw in eventual runner-up Kade Law. After suffering brutal draws and defeats during his first three years, what is he rewarded with? How about another returning state qualifier in the ticket round? Bisping is as tough as they come, and while Steenbeke is the favorite, the upset is certainly possible here. Give me Steenbeke in this match, but it should be close. Top 4: Sam Goin AJ Steenbeke Ben Shaffer Cameron Crisp Aside from the brutal draw featuring Steenbeke and Bisping, the only quarter brackets here feature only one state ranked wrestler a piece, with #15 Ben Shaffer, #17 Cameron Crisp, and #1 Sam Goin all looking to breeze through to the placement rounds. I think the finalists for this weight class are pretty clear cut too, with Steenbeke avoiding Goin until the finals, a draw that will hopefully help him on his quest to receive a medal at state for the first time. I don’t really think that Steenbeke will win, but I anticipate that this match will be a lot closer than some people think, with Steenbeke wrestling very well as of recently. Shaffer and Crisp for 3rd place should be very close, but I’m giving the edge to the higher ranked Shaffer, who is always in a match and has several tricks up his sleeve, something I know from both watching him and scraping with him. 170: FIRST ROUND DEATH DRAW: #5 Aidan Costello vs. #14 Zymarion Hollyfield In possibly one of the most brutal first round matches in the entire state, Costello and Hollyfield will battle for a spot in the ticket round, where the winner will be heavily favored against #25 Daeveon Cheeks. Hollyfield has put together a fantastic season this year, but an upset loss to #18 Gavin Malone, and an unusual 10-4 loss to Triton senior Elijah Cox has him drawing a top 5 opponent right away. Funnily enough, losing this third place match actually improves his chances of going to state, with Cox likely wrestling #2 Cody Goodwin in the ticket round, so perhaps Penn studied the algorithm before that match and told Hollyfield to lose? Unlikely, and I say this with no intention to diminish Cox’s big win over Hollyfield, but it is funny how the brackets work out. With Costello pinning Hollyfield earlier in the year, I expect that Costello will win again, although I feel like a pin is unlikely. Top 4: Goodwin Costello Valdez Malone Goodwin should easily make his way to the finals in this bracket. The quarter bracket below is pretty interesting, featuring a first round state ranked matchup in Malone and #21 Manolo Hood. Given that Malone is coming off of a big win over Hollyfield, and has claimed several other impressive wins this season, I think he wins this match by a decent margin. If Malone is starting to peak at the right time, anybody in the state should be nervous to wrestle him. As mentioned, I think Costello gets it done over Hollyfield to eventually punch his ticket, and likewise, I think #15 Isaac Valdez makes it through to the semis. The semis don’t leave too many questions for spectators, with Goodwin and Costello leading as heavy favorites to make the finals. I do wonder how Goodwin and Costello match up in the finals. With Goodwin absent from this year’s Al Smith, a potential showdown between the two did not go down, meaning that there is not a lot of information to comfortably predict this matchup. Goodwin is definitely the favorite here, but Costello is a problematic wrestler for many, due to his height, and could invalidate a lot of Goodwin’s offense. I’m taking Goodwin here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Costello kept it close. For the 3rd place match, I have to go with Valdez as the winner here. To be completely honest, I was going to choose Malone here to win, as I knew that Malone had lost to Valdez in the regional finals, but figured that it was a close match, and thought that Malone could reverse the decision. After all, he had just beat Hollyfield, and Hollyfield had beat Valdez in the sectional finals. After rechecking the score of Valdez and Malone to include it in this write up, I found out that Valdez had TECH FALLED Malone, a result that makes it impossible for me to choose Malone as the winner only a week later. When making predictions, there are results that are sometimes anomalies, and I think that this is definitely one of them, and expect the rematch to be much closer, but I can’t look at a tech fall and predict that the wrestler on the receiving end of the tech fall will win. I could even be convinced that Valdez might make a finals appearance this year, but Costello has wrestled very well this season, and I’m confident in my predictions at this weight. 182: DEATH DRAW: #10 Connor Cervantes vs. #12 Jaxson Walters Two seniors, both ranked in the top 16, neither qualifying for state yet in their careers, and now only one of them will get the chance. Cervantes opens up as the favorite as the higher ranked wrestler, as well as boasting an undefeated record at this point in the season, while Walters is coming off of a tough loss to freshman Vinny Freeman in the regional finals. I think the momentum is in Cervantes’s favor, making this a bit of an easier pick for me than it otherwise would be. Top 4: Orlando Cruz Connor Cervantes Ethan Popp Ethan Risner Lots to breakdown in this weight class. First and foremost, nobody is touching #1 Orlando Cruz in this semi-state. Cruz has been incredibly dominant this season, and I expect that Cruz scores at least 60 points this weekend. As for the rest of the field, things are a little more interesting. In the second quarter bracket, #22 Ethan Popp is the heavy favorite to punch his ticket, likely wrestling Cameron Zimmerman in the ticket round. They have no common opponents, but Zimmerman has been competitive against several highly ranked wrestlers this season, and is not a free ticket by any means. In the last quarter bracket, Vinny Freeman is rewarded for his regionals win with a top 16 opponent in #16 Ethan Risner. Now, a lot of people might want to pick Freeman here after his win over Walters, and a 14-6 major decision at that, but this win is Freeman’s only substantial win of the season, which makes me think that this result could be one of those anomalies that just happen every once in a while. This match will be great for Freeman to show if he’s actually at that state level, or if he just had a good regional. Risner has been consistent this season, and I don’t see him losing if he’s wrestling solid. Cervantes and Popp will hit in the top semi final match, where I think Cervantes will win pretty comfortably. Cruz should also win pretty comfortably in the other semi final match. I think that Cruz also wins pretty nicely over Cervantes, but for 3rd place, we have a clash of Ethans, and the rankings don’t really help. Risner is the higher state ranked wrestler, but the lower semi-state ranked wrestler, while Popp is lower in the state but higher in the semi-state. Popp is an interesting wrestler to try to predict, because he doesn’t have too many matches this year that are good for comparison with the rest of the field. Their only common opponent that they have is Matthew McCrum, who they both beat by decision. So, I think I’m going to go with Risner, mostly because he has been battle tested a little more than Popp has this season, so that’s really all I can go off of. 195: DEATH DRAW: #5 Christian Chavez vs. #13 Trent Kersey Kersey has had a stellar season prior to the state series, vaulting his way up to #13 in the state after an incredible Al Smith consolation run, and several other solid wins. However, Kersey has struggled to maintain this level during the state series, losing to Sam Chambers at sectionals, and narrowly escaping an early elimination in the regional blood round, winning in overtime to make the semi-state tournament. Now, he will have to escape elimination again against one of the best 195 pounders in the state in Christian Chavez. I think that Chavez has been wrestling fantastically, and I doubt Kersey will be able to stun Chavez in the ticket round, but Kersey certainly has the tools to wrestle against the best in the state. Top 4: Christian Chavez Anthony White Neil Johnson Sam Chambers While Chavez and #8 Anthony White are easy picks to make it out of their quarter brackets, the other two quarter brackets aren’t quite that simple. In the second quarter bracket, there are three semi-state ranked wrestlers looking to punch their ticket for the first time. The highest ranked of these wrestlers is SS #7 Joshua McKelvin. He wrestles Sam Chambers in the first round, who has shown that he is much better than his #11 ranking in the semi-state with his win over Kersey at sectionals. Although Kersey was able to reverse that result against Chambers at regionals, Chambers wrestled the rematch close enough for me to give him extra value when it comes to deciding the victor here. The winner of this match will get SS #10 Bazle Owens in the ticket round, who is just as competitive as the other two SS ranked wrestlers in this weight class, and can most certainly steal the ticket here. At the end of the day, I think I have to go with the lowest ranked wrestler here, as he has shown tremendous growth throughout the state series, and while he is a 4th placer coming into this tournament, it should be noted that the wrestlers that placed above him were ranked 8th, 11th, and 13th, respectively, and it would be hard for most wrestlers to place higher than 4th in that field. The last quarter bracket features a state ranked matchup in #21 James Veal and #11 Neil Johnson. Johnson has had a great season this year and is the favorite heading into this matchup, but Veal is capable of winning big matches, beating Henry Kukelhan in the Al Smith quarterfinals for a 2 seed upset. Veal hasn’t been entirely consistent since then, but the best version of Veal could get the job done here, although I am ultimately picking Johnson to win here. White should beat Chambers, who he has already defeated in the state series by a 13-4 major decision. Chavez and Johnson should be a close match, but I could see Chavez blowing it out in the third period with his aggressive handfighting and ability to find attacks. Chavez and White in the finals should be fun. They haven’t wrestled yet this season, but both have had great moments this season, and I think it will be very competitive. Chavez gets the nod here because his peaks this season have been a little more impressive, which includes an Al Smith title over Kaden McConnell, a result that gets much more stock after McConnell’s upset over Gunner Henry. As for the 3rd place match, I think that Johnson will win pretty easily, as indicated by his 47 second fall over Chambers in the regional semis. 220: Top 4: Will Clark Cole Chicoine Jonathan Neese Everett McClelland The only quarter bracket here that I can’t comfortably predict is the first one. The highest ranked wrestler coming into this quarter bracket is #22 Clayton Deutscher, who also happens to be the 4th placer coming into this quarter bracket as well (which should tell you something about the Crown Point regional). He will match up against Everett McClelland in the first round, where I believe that McClelland will get the upset win. Now, the justification for this gets a little ugly, but let me run you all through it. McClelland and Deutscher have one common opponent that I could find: LaPorte’s very own Devon Duschek. Deutscher beat Duschek in an overtime match at sectionals, while McClelland lost to Duschek by a first period fall. However, James Veal pinned Duschek, while McClelland pinned Veal. So, we’re put in a little bit of a tricky prediction situation here. Let’s look at Kaleb Abad. Abad eliminated Duschek at regionals with a fall, in addition to another fall against Duschek earlier in the year. Abad only lost 1-0 to Deutscher at regionals. With all of this information, I think that McClelland gets the nod here, as it seems like his loss to Duschek was perhaps an outlying result that should not distract you all from some of his more solid performances. With that out of the way, I think that it is pretty easy to assume that Will Clark will probably win semi-state at this weight, so McClelland will likely be going for third. #13 Jonathan Neese and #20 Cole Chicoine is a bit of a trickier match to figure out the winner of. They have no common opponents, but Chicoine does have some solid results under his name, including two wins over other competitors in the field, and a slim 8-6 loss to Alex Rose. I feel like I have to give the nod here to the lower ranked wrestler, with Neese being overall unproven at his ranking, which could of course be proven this weekend and I could be completely wrong, but I think that Chicoine overall has a stronger resume, aside from his ranking. For the 3rd place match, I think Neese will get it done over McClelland. 285: Top 4: Paul Clark Aramis McNutt Anthony Popi Peyton Kendall While the ticket round matchup in the top quarter bracket is by technicality not a death draw by what I defined a death draw to be, it’s basically one. #13 Jordan Cree takes on #17 Peyton Kendall in a battle of returning state qualifiers. Kendall has had some great results this season, but he’s also taken some unusual losses that make me not so confident that he can get the upset here. On the other hand, Cree has been great this season, losing only one match, but a little bit untested on the season as well. I think if Kendall wrestles his best match, he can pull the upset here, and that’s what I’m picking him to do. Every other quarter bracket has a clear favorite, with #11 Aramis McNutt, #4 Anthony Popi, and #2 Paul Clark all likely punching their tickets. We are getting treated to a #2 vs. #4 match in the semis with Clark and Popi stepping into the circle to wrestle. Despite Popi’s ranking, I still feel like Clark is on another level against any heavyweight not named Leighton Jones, and he should win this match by a comfortable margin. Kendall vs. McNutt will be a rematch from earlier this season, where McNutt won a commanding 11-5 match. I expect it to be closer this time around, but I don’t think the overall result changes. I think Clark wins pretty easily in the finals, while Popi and Kendall get a rematch of their regional finals match, where Popi won a slim 2-1 match. This certainly makes me think that Kendall could get this win, but Popi has been overall better and more consistent on the season, so I am more comfortable choosing Popi here despite the razor thin match just a week prior. Lots of writing done for this semi-state breakdown, about 14 pages single spaced (including all of the spaces between segments), but I genuinely do enjoy writing these. I won’t say anything more here, especially since I plan on doing a state breakdown next week, and I think that will probably be the pinnacle of my write-ups thus far, especially since I won’t have a tournament to make weight for to distract me from doing research and breaking matches down and all of that. See you all next week! Love the respect of Portage. East Chicago Semi state going to be fun day. CoachDC and Paycheck141 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachDC Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Hood at 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TysonNisley Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, CoachDC said: Hood at 70 Wouldn't bet against him. Malone's peaks have been higher though, but Hood is certainly capable of pulling the upset here. busstogate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
julio Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Da Region will be rockin tomorrow! MUSKEEWRESTLER and indianmorg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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