Strength of Schedule: Castle Regional

[hook and half]

Like an Andrew Dice Clay show, there is something in the post to offend everyone.

 

In the Castle regional, the strength of schedule factor will be the best indicator of who wins matches between the two and three seeds.

 

I will stipulate that there are differences in the quality of the sectionals and within each, individual weight class.  Colds, injuries, mental health, etcetera will also come into play, but let’s put the theory to the test.

 

Here is the stack ranking, based upon strength of schedule:

 

1 mater dei

2 memorial

3 castle

4 central

5 gibson southern

6 harrison

7 princeton

8 reitz

9 mt. vernon

10 vincennes

11 north

12 tell city

12 north posey

14 pike central

14 south spencer

14 tecumseh

 

Using this metric as the only consideration, here are the picks:

 

#2 Nolan Schaefer, Memorial over Joel Nawl, Vincennes

#2 Logan Dillbeck, GS over David Teague, Tell City

#2 Christian Pellacer, GS over Aubrey Craig, Tell City

#2 Seth Horty, Memorial over Dawson Matherly, North

#3 Noah Keller, Mt Vernon over #2 Nick Burke, North

#2 Hunter Arney, Memorial over #3 Kaleb Greenwell, GS

#3 Hunter Baehl, GS over Jarrod Hemmings, Boonville

#3 Johny Wargel, Memorial over #2 Conner Willis, Central

#2 Blake Jourdan, MD over Conner Brown, Memorial

#2 Austin Ramsey, Castle over Mikie Boger, Vincennes

#2 Luke Petrig, Memorial over Hayden Baehl, GS

#2 AJ Dixon, Central over Charlie Allen, Boonville

#2 Korbin Karges, Princeton over Peyton Whoberry, Mt. Vernon

#2 Jacob Farmer, Castle over Jacob Smith, Central

#2 Dane Wilson, Mt. Vernon over Justin Naylor, North

#2 Logan Weinzapfel, MD over Holden Abshier, Memorial

#2 Ashton Forzley, MD over Elliot Brown, Tell City

#2 Blake Jeffress, Castle over Shane Martin, North Posey

#3 Andrew Shaw, Reitz over Josh Taylor, Tecumseh

#2 Turner Lockyear, Castle over Ty Winchell, North

#2 Evan Dowell, Castle over Louis Hoover, GS

#3 Noah Huelsing, Memorial over Jacob Wallace, Tecumseh

#3 Seth Orth, MD over Jacob Newton, Boonville

#3 Jake Lamar, Castle over Rashon Jefferson, Vincennes

#3 Tristan Choate, Mt. Vernon over Adam Lytle, Tecumseh

#3 Colton Dossett, Tecumseh TOSS UP RJ Shaw, South Spencer

#3 Austin Stallings, Mt. Vernon over Dalton Miller, Pike Central

#3 Adrian Butler, MD over Terrance Kyles, Harrison

 

Note that 17 of the 27 picks were runners-up in their sectional.  By a better than 3-2 margin, kids with the tougher schedule finished higher in their respective sectional than the wrestler with a weaker schedule.

 

Let the dart-throwing begin…

 

[dog_man]

It's interesting to see how quickly Central has shot to near the top of the SIAC. Their wrestlers and program seem to benefit from the competition they get from their coaches' fearlessness in scheduling. Some other SIAC teams should take note.

[chambers]

It's interesting to see how quickly Central has shot to near the top of the SIAC. Their wrestlers and program seem to benefit from the competition they get from their coaches' fearlessness in scheduling. Some other SIAC teams should take note.

 

OK. Not sure where how you came to this conclusion.

 

This is how Central has placed in the last 6 SIAC tournaments:

 

2014 4th

2013 2nd

2012 4th

2011 5th

2010 5th

2009 5th

[dog_man]

OK. Not sure where how you came to this conclusion.

 

This is how Central has placed in the last 6 SIAC tournaments:

 

2014 4th

2013 2nd

2012 4th

2011 5th

2010 5th

2009 5th

 

My point was they are moving out of the group of "perennial losers" and even beating Reitz, Castle, and Memorial some years at SIAC now.

[SouthernIndianaVoice]

I'm sorry but finishing 2nd one year in the last 6 is not moving up.

[dog_man]

I'm sorry but finishing 2nd one year in the last 6 is not moving up.

 

You are delusional. Central has more wrestlers that can actually make a splash state-wide then Reitz, Memorial, and Castle. Teams like Reitz are falling behind and I believe they have peaked.

[SouthernIndianaVoice]

Yes I'll agree they have a few individuals (Kelley and Kemper) who will make a deep run at State. But those two don't make up the entire team. I do believe Castle and Memorial both beat them in a dual and also in the SIAC tournament, Reitz is out of the picture, they are down and will be for awhile, but from the looks of TEAM results not a few individuals, Central hasn't passed Memorial and Castle.

[dog_man]

Yes I'll agree they have a few individuals (Kelley and Kemper) who will make a deep run at State. But those two don't make up the entire team. I do believe Castle and Memorial both beat them in a dual and also in the SIAC tournament, Reitz is out of the picture, they are down and will be for awhile, but from the looks of TEAM results not a few individuals, Central hasn't passed Memorial and Castle.

 

 

 

Agree. I think they could pass Castle too in the next few years though.

[WrestleMan]

Outside of Kelley and Kemper who are Central's studs that are going to carry them?  Kelley is gone after this year and Kemper is a junior.  After the two of them you have several good wrestlers but none about to take that big step to being a state placer.  Dixon at 138 is very tough and probably the closest after those two but he isn't there yet and I believe is a junior as well.  Smith at 145 is about like Dixon although I think Dixon is probably better.  Smith is also a junior and will be gone in another year.  As far as I know the only underclassman that shows a lot of promise is the freshman Willis at 126.  He's good, but will he ever be a state placer?  The way things look Central is about as high in the SIAC as they are going to be unless they have some great middle schoolers coming in.

[EvansvilleSpectator]

Evansville central beat MD, castle, memorial, reitz, and everyone else in the SIAC in the team score at State    so therefore they must be the best of them all!lol

[SouthernIndianaVoice]

That seems to be the way people at Central think. They are an improved program but still the consistency of a program like MD, Castle, and Memorial isn't there nor do I think it will ever be there with that they have.

[EvansvilleSpectator]

That seems to be the way people at Central think. They are an improved program but still the consistency of a program like MD, Castle, and Memorial isn't there nor do I think it will ever be there with that they have.

If you look at the post about the last 6 years in the SIAC, it looks pretty consistent to me. Just because they are consistently in the 4th place area doesn't mean they aren't consistent. Nor is being 4th in a power conference like the SIAC something to hang a head over.

[SouthernIndianaVoice]

You are correct, but the way I took it as dog man said, they are at the top of the SIAC, last time I checked being consistently in the middle of the pack isn't at the top. Until they can consistently finish 2nd rather than one year out of 6, I won't consider them atop the SIAC. But being 4th in that conference isn't a terrible thing but also doesn't give you a reason to talk your team up. They have good INDIVIDUALS (Kelley and Kemper) and after that no one else is much of a threat just yet.

[WrestleMan]

Right now, Central has 2 studs (Kelley and Kemper) and three really solid guys (Dixon, Smith and Willis).  For them to move up the ladder in the SIAC they need another stud or two and five or six really solid guys.  It seems like that is a little bit of a stretch for them at this point.

[EvansvilleSpectator]

Agreed. Hard for anyone In the SIAC to compete with mater dei. Especially when they could have 2 finalist/champs. At LEAST one other placer (Pierre) and a handful of qualifiers.

[basic13s]

Like an Andrew Dice Clay show, there is something in the post to offend everyone.

 

In the Castle regional, the strength of schedule factor will be the best indicator of who wins matches between the two and three seeds.

 

I will stipulate that there are differences in the quality of the sectionals and within each, individual weight class.  Colds, injuries, mental health, etcetera will also come into play, but let’s put the theory to the test.

 

Here is the stack ranking, based upon strength of schedule:

 

1 mater dei

2 memorial

3 castle

4 central

5 gibson southern

6 harrison

7 princeton

8 reitz

9 mt. vernon

10 vincennes

11 north

12 tell city

12 north posey

14 pike central

14 south spencer

14 tecumseh

 

Using this metric as the only consideration, here are the picks:

 

#2 Nolan Schaefer, Memorial over Joel Nawl, Vincennes

#2 Logan Dillbeck, GS over David Teague, Tell City

#2 Christian Pellacer, GS over Aubrey Craig, Tell City

#2 Seth Horty, Memorial over Dawson Matherly, North

#3 Noah Keller, Mt Vernon over #2 Nick Burke, North

#2 Hunter Arney, Memorial over #3 Kaleb Greenwell, GS

#3 Hunter Baehl, GS over Jarrod Hemmings, Boonville

#3 Johny Wargel, Memorial over #2 Conner Willis, Central

#2 Blake Jourdan, MD over Conner Brown, Memorial

#2 Austin Ramsey, Castle over Mikie Boger, Vincennes

#2 Luke Petrig, Memorial over Hayden Baehl, GS

#2 AJ Dixon, Central over Charlie Allen, Boonville

#2 Korbin Karges, Princeton over Peyton Whoberry, Mt. Vernon

#2 Jacob Farmer, Castle over Jacob Smith, Central

#2 Dane Wilson, Mt. Vernon over Justin Naylor, North

#2 Logan Weinzapfel, MD over Holden Abshier, Memorial

#2 Ashton Forzley, MD over Elliot Brown, Tell City

#2 Blake Jeffress, Castle over Shane Martin, North Posey

#3 Andrew Shaw, Reitz over Josh Taylor, Tecumseh

#2 Turner Lockyear, Castle over Ty Winchell, North

#2 Evan Dowell, Castle over Louis Hoover, GS

#3 Noah Huelsing, Memorial over Jacob Wallace, Tecumseh

#3 Seth Orth, MD over Jacob Newton, Boonville

#3 Jake Lamar, Castle over Rashon Jefferson, Vincennes

#3 Tristan Choate, Mt. Vernon over Adam Lytle, Tecumseh

#3 Colton Dossett, Tecumseh TOSS UP RJ Shaw, South Spencer

#3 Austin Stallings, Mt. Vernon over Dalton Miller, Pike Central

#3 Adrian Butler, MD over Terrance Kyles, Harrison

 

Note that 17 of the 27 picks were runners-up in their sectional.  By a better than 3-2 margin, kids with the tougher schedule finished higher in their respective sectional than the wrestler with a weaker schedule.

 

Let the dart-throwing begin…

 

Dear Hook and Half (aka Curt Zenthopher disciple), please in your spare time take this theory a little further. Can you go back to the central and castle sectionals and take a look at what schools wrestled to, or better than their sectional seed. Say Md had 12 wrestlers place at or above their seed out of 14. That would be an 85.7% seed minimum met.

 

My hypothesis: you will find a positive corrolation in minimum seed met percentage (MSM%) within the schools with the highest strength of schedule.

 

Post hypothesis theory. I imagine GS would swap central on SOS if GS dualed MD.

 

 

[chitownhustler]

Wayne Sharp would toss your theroy directly in the trash.  #1 you using team strength of schedule to perdict what is now an individual tournment.  As Louden Swain said:  "If you haven't noticed wrestling is not a team sport.  When you are out on the mat 1 on 1 there is not a whole lot a team can do for you"

[hdwork]

I think these coaches are doing a great job what you don't know is all these schools  are wrestling each other, which is a tough schedule and as a team progresses you add strength to your schedule like Greg did by adding Union County Ky to his schedule like Lapadat did by adjusting Ce schedule and Memorial has done the same. Kids don't get anything by losing every match we already have issues with FF don't need anymore kids quitting. 

[SWINfan]

When looking at the brackets on trackwrestling, the individual seeds are not noted, and not obvious.  I assumed you would have the #1 see on the same position of the bracket but that doesn't seem to be the case (unless Egli is the #1 over Konrath).  Is there a key so one can tell who is what seed?  I guess the first two are confusing me.  Egli is on the top line of the bracket at 106 and he was the winner at Central.  Ferguson is in the same position at 113 and he was the winner at Castle.  What am I missing?

[hook and half]

Wayne Sharp would toss your theroy directly in the trash.  #1 you using team strength of schedule to perdict what is now an individual tournment.  As Louden Swain said:  "If you haven't noticed wrestling is not a team sport.  When you are out on the mat 1 on 1 there is not a whole lot a team can do for you"

 

1.  Who is Wayne sharp?

2.  What is a chitownhustler?  Some sort of escort for an alternative lifestyle?

3.  Generally, good wrestlers populate good teams.  Consequently,  if you wrestle tough teams you will get good individual bouts.  Don't believe me!  Check it out for yourself.

4.  Louden swain from visionQuest?  The movie where the unbeatable Shute gets hit with three lat drops and then pinned?  Right.

[1prouddad]

When looking at the brackets on trackwrestling, the individual seeds are not noted, and not obvious.  I assumed you would have the #1 see on the same position of the bracket but that doesn't seem to be the case (unless Egli is the #1 over Konrath).  Is there a key so one can tell who is what seed?  I guess the first two are confusing me.  Egli is on the top line of the bracket at 106 and he was the winner at Central.  Ferguson is in the same position at 113 and he was the winner at Castle.  What am I missing?

as long as the 1 and 3 seed from the same sectional are on the same side of the bracket, it doesn't really matter if they are on top or bottom bracket

[hook and half]

Dear Hook and Half (aka Curt Zenthopher disciple), please in your spare time take this theory a little further. Can you go back to the central and castle sectionals and take a look at what schools wrestled to, or better than their sectional seed. Say Md had 12 wrestlers place at or above their seed out of 14. That would be an 85.7% seed minimum met.

 

My hypothesis: you will find a positive corrolation in minimum seed met percentage (MSM%) within the schools with the highest strength of schedule.

 

Post hypothesis theory. I imagine GS would swap central on SOS if GS dualed MD.

 

Interesting.  Your theory is to test whether or not the seed given was reflective of what was appropriate.

 

My theory tests strength of schedule vis a vis the matchup of a two and three regional seed.

 

Btw-  what's a "curt Zenthopher"?  Is that a Swiss chocolate bar you buy at the airport?  I like them, but would not consider myself to be a "disciple"

[chitownhustler]

Louden couldn't hold his mud, but he did make the weight. 

[mtv2112]

When looking at the brackets on trackwrestling, the individual seeds are not noted, and not obvious.  I assumed you would have the #1 see on the same position of the bracket but that doesn't seem to be the case (unless Egli is the #1 over Konrath).  Is there a key so one can tell who is what seed?  I guess the first two are confusing me.  Egli is on the top line of the bracket at 106 and he was the winner at Central.  Ferguson is in the same position at 113 and he was the winner at Castle.  What am I missing?

 

The regional isn't seeded.  It goes by the sectional finish.  If you want to call them seeds, then you have two #1's, two #2's, etc.

 

The #1 from Section B faces the #4 from Sectional A  . . . . dig around in track wrestling for one of the regionals and you can figure it out.

[1prouddad]

The regional isn't seeded.  It goes by the sectional finish.  If you want to call them seeds, then you have two #1's, two #2's, etc.

 

The #1 from Section B faces the #4 from Sectional B  . . . . dig around in track wrestling for one of the regionals and you can figure it out.

Wrong. The #1 from sectional B will face #4 from sectional A