Strength of Schedule: Castle Regional

[basic13s]

Interesting.  Your theory is to test whether or not the seed given was reflective of what was appropriate.

 

My theory tests strength of schedule vis a vis the matchup of a two and three regional seed.

 

Btw-  what's a "curt Zenthopher"?  Is that a Swiss chocolate bar you buy at the airport?  I like them, but would not consider myself to be a "disciple"

 

My theory is to test whether strength of schedule has a positive direct corrolation on out placing your seed in sectional. The idea of worse record from tougher comp= lower seed due to record. MR Chastain started a thread on this and I was just trying to quantify it. You being the west sides amalgam of Mike Wicker and Bill James, I thought you'd be a great candidate to try it out.

[hook and half]

My theory is to test whether strength of schedule has a positive direct corrolation on out placing your seed in sectional. The idea of worse record from tougher comp= lower seed due to record. MR Chastain started a thread on this and I was just trying to quantify it. You being the west sides amalgam of Mike Wicker and Bill James, I thought you'd be a great candidate to try it out.

 

Basic-

 

I'm not sure if this works.  The theory is that if one wrestles a tough schedule, he learns from mistakes in his losses and/or close matches.  When the said wrestler wrestles someone from his own conference, he will likely defeat his opponent with a superior record.  The head-to-head record is the primary criterion in determining the seed.

 

 

[mtv2112]

You are correct, but the way I took it as dog man said, they are at the top of the SIAC, last time I checked being consistently in the middle of the pack isn't at the top. Until they can consistently finish 2nd rather than one year out of 6, I won't consider them atop the SIAC. But being 4th in that conference isn't a terrible thing but also doesn't give you a reason to talk your team up. They have good INDIVIDUALS (Kelley and Kemper) and after that no one else is much of a threat just yet.

 

Central did score well in the IHSWCA team state calculation which is based heavily on underclassman advancing.  I guess we shall see how that looks as the tournament progresses.

[basic13s]

Ok here we go. Arbitrary data regurgitation about to commence.

 

I looked at the top 4 seeds in both the castle and central sectionals.

 

If a wrestler met or eclipsed his seed, his minimum seed met is 100%

 

If a wrestler was seeded 2nd and got 4th, it is 0%

 

Here are the results team by team

                 

                    MSM %

MD 13 of 14 (92.8%)

Memorial 12 of 13 (92.3%)

Castle 10 of 10 (100%)

Mount Vernon 8 (80%)

Gibson Southern 7 of 8 (87.5%)

Central 5 of 8 (62.5%)

Heritage Hills 5 of 7 (71.4%)

Reitz 5 of 6 (83.3%)

Pike Central 4 of 6 (66.7%)

North 3 of 6 (50%)

Tecumseh 3 of 5 (60%)

Boonville 2 of 5 (40%)

 

Minimum requirement of 5 top 4 seeded contestants.

Observations

1: #smallsamplesize

2: teams with the best MSM % are the teams with the toughest strength of schedule

3: teams with the worst MSM% have the weakest strength of schedule

 

Could be cool to see theory applied to different sectionals whee some teams like Avon, New Pal, etc who wrestle hammer schedules do in relation to their better record counterparts.

 

This literally means nothing, just bored at work.

 

Trying to make my case for employment when decbell starts a wrestling branch of fangraphs

 

[chambers]

Ok here we go. Arbitrary data regurgitation about to commence.

 

I looked at the top 4 seeds in both the castle and central sectionals.

 

If a wrestler met or eclipsed his seed, his minimum seed met is 100%

 

If a wrestler was seeded 2nd and got 4th, it is 0%

 

Here are the results team by team

                 

                    MSM %

MD 13 of 14 (92.8%)

Memorial 12 of 13 (92.3%)

Castle 10 of 10 (100%)

Mount Vernon 8 (80%)

Gibson Southern 7 of 8 (87.5%)

Central 5 of 8 (62.5%)

Heritage Hills 5 of 7 (71.4%)

Reitz 5 of 6 (83.3%)

Pike Central 4 of 6 (66.7%)

North 3 of 6 (50%)

Tecumseh 3 of 5 (60%)

Boonville 2 of 5 (40%)

 

Minimum requirement of 5 top 4 seeded contestants.

Observations

1: #smallsamplesize

2: teams with the best MSM % are the teams with the toughest strength of schedule

3: teams with the worst MSM% have the weakest strength of schedule

 

Could be cool to see theory applied to different sectionals whee some teams like Avon, New Pal, etc who wrestle hammer schedules do in relation to their better record counterparts.

 

This literally means nothing, just bored at work.

 

Trying to make my case for employment when decbell starts a wrestling branch of fangraphs

 

 

The sectional seeds 6 so I think we should look at how all 6 seeds did. No need to do a lot of homework on this one. Trackwrestling provides this information.

 

Team Seed Place Difference for Evansville Central Sectional.

1. Gibson Southern 11

2. Evansville Central 3

3. Mater Dei 2

3. North Posey 2

3. Wood Memorial 2

6. Vincennes Lincoln 0

7. Princeton -1

7. Tecumseh -1

9. Evansville North -5

10. Pike Central -6

 

 

Team Seed Place Difference for Castle Sectional.

1. Evansville Harrison High School 4

1. Mt. Vernon High School 4

3. South Spencer High School 2

4. Evansville Bosse High School 1

4. Tell City High School 1

6. Castle High School 0

6. Heritage Hills High School 0

8. Evansville Memorial High School -1

9. Evansville Reitz High School -2

10. Boonville High School -6

[basic13s]

 

 

The sectional seeds 6 so I think we should look at how all 6 seeds did. No need to do a lot of homework on this one. Trackwrestling provides this information.

 

Team Seed Place Difference for Evansville Central Sectional.

1. Gibson Southern 11

2. Evansville Central 3

3. Mater Dei 2

3. North Posey 2

3. Wood Memorial 2

6. Vincennes Lincoln 0

7. Princeton -1

7. Tecumseh -1

9. Evansville North -5

10. Pike Central -6

 

 

Team Seed Place Difference for Castle Sectional.

1. Evansville Harrison High School 4

1. Mt. Vernon High School 4

3. South Spencer High School 2

4. Evansville Bosse High School 1

4. Tell City High School 1

6. Castle High School 0

6. Heritage Hills High School 0

8. Evansville Memorial High School -1

9. Evansville Reitz High School -2

10. Boonville High School -6

 

Didn't want to look at 6 seeds because a lot of weight classes advanced to 5/6 matches with only wins as forfeits. To place top 4 you usually have to beat someone with a pulse. Your method shows a zero result for a number one seed winning a sectional. I'm not worried about the differential

[BodyslamU]

You are delusional. Central has more wrestlers that can actually make a splash state-wide then Reitz, Memorial, and Castle. Teams like Reitz are falling behind and I believe they have peaked.

Because of one down year? If you take away all their injuries I think they win against Mt. Vernon and Central along with about 6-8 other teams they lost to by 10 or less points.

Lost the 195 for the year due to a vicious head butt at the Harrison 10-way. Lost the 138 to a season ending knee surgery after their 2nd tournament of the year. Basically lost the 126 to a dislocated shoulder at the Harrison 10-way. He sat for 3 weeks  then hurt it again at SIAC, but never did recover. Plus add in Todrank somehow magically appeared at Gibson Southern and the Resse boy didn't wrestle this year. They only lose 3 seniors so 11 returning plus all the back-ups that got quality varsity matches this year should make for a very good room next year. Down my friend but not out! You forget that they beat MD a few years back and everyone said MD was done, now we know that's hardly the case don't we! Don't be so quick to count them out. Should we count Central out because they lose Kelly, the heart of the team?

[EvansvilleSpectator]

Agreed. Definitely a down year for Reitz. But hard to think they will ever actually be bad. Still a quality team.

 

I don't think they would have beaten mount Vernon or central without injuries though. Closer? Without a doubt, but unlikely to win. If all 3 teams had everyone they would have liked to have, Reitz would still be in abit of a rut; Todrank and Reese were big looses. Mount Vernon has had several injuries that hurts their line up. Central's 195 who went to semi-state last year has been in and out all year. Not only that, but their 126 got into trouble and didn't wrestle 90% of the season. (Also semi-state qualifier)

 

Mount Vernon, whatever happened to Hoehn? Could he not make varsity or injury or what?

[basic13s]

Because of one down year? If you take away all their injuries I think they win against Mt. Vernon and Central along with about 6-8 other teams they lost to by 10 or less points.

Lost the 195 for the year due to a vicious head butt at the Harrison 10-way. Lost the 138 to a season ending knee surgery after their 2nd tournament of the year. Basically lost the 126 to a dislocated shoulder at the Harrison 10-way. He sat for 3 weeks  then hurt it again at SIAC, but never did recover. Plus add in Todrank somehow magically appeared at Gibson Southern and the Resse boy didn't wrestle this year. They only lose 3 seniors so 11 returning plus all the back-ups that got quality varsity matches this year should make for a very good room next year. Down my friend but not out! You forget that they beat MD a few years back and everyone said MD was done, now we know that's hardly the case don't we! Don't be so quick to count them out. Should we count Central out because they lose Kelly, the heart of the team?

Everyone said MD was done? I'm sure hook and half and wrestle man were leading that bandwagon. #BobcatBias

[hook and half]

Everyone said MD was done? I'm sure hook and half and wrestle man were leading that bandwagon. #BobcatBias

 

By "everyone", he means pantherfan and bluegraypanther. 

 

Where are those guys?

[frigginhurts]

i don't think reitz is down and out but they are down.  however, they'll be good next year, probably top 4 in SIAC. 

[hook and half]

i don't think reitz is down and out but they are down.  however, they'll be good next year, probably top 4 in SIAC.

 

They were fifth this year.  I don't think that moving up one place would be very satisfying. 

[EvansvilleSpectator]

I think the placing will be just about the same as this year actually. All the teams seem pretty young. Castle has 1 senior, central has 2, MD won't go down, and memorial has 5 seniors but it seems like they will replace them with other solids. If Reitz's upper weights improve greatly, then that's another story.

[chambers]

Didn't want to look at 6 seeds because a lot of weight classes advanced to 5/6 matches with only wins as forfeits. To place top 4 you usually have to beat someone with a pulse. Your method shows a zero result for a number one seed winning a sectional. I'm not worried about the differential

 

Does your method account for the wrestlers that were not seeded in the top four but placed in the top four?

[MatChick76]

 

Mount Vernon, whatever happened to Hoehn? Could he not make varsity or injury or what?

 

Hoehn had an injury last year that, from my understanding, continued to linger and in effect, ended his H.S. wrestling career.  Too bad too, I would have loved to see him on Mt. Vernon's team this year.