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Ed Pendoski

Wrestling and Math

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Ok, on the thread about "Toughest Regional" the statement was asked,

 

"What would be the result if only the top 3 from regional moved on to SS as in years past?

Should we go back to top 3?

 

 

We have a freshman named Suhas Chundi we like a lot and he's quite proficient in math!  Last week I asked him to do a statistics problem for us.  (Maligned, I can scan his work and send to you if you'd like to double check)

 

I asked him to give us the probability of the top 4 guys getting out of semi state if they were randomly placed into regionals (knowing that if they were the top 4 in the semi state, there is no chance of them not getting out of the sectional).  

 

Assuming that there are no upsets, and that the #1 guy in semi state always beats #2, and 2 always beats 3 and three always beats 4, there is only a 40.6% chance that all 4 get out.

 

Because of our blind draw without wrestlebacks from the quarters, the 4th best guy in the semi state will draw into 1-3 best guy 40.7% of the time and the 3rd best guy will draw into 1-2 best guy 19.75%

 

 

I don't remember the exact year that we added the 4th place finisher from Regionals to semi state, but here is the results from New Castle this year (this is my math so this one could be off! ha!)

 

4th place wrestler lost to 1st place wrestler 94.6% (53 of 56)

4th place was pinned  66% of matches (37 of 56)

 

Question #1:  Is it necessary to have the 4th place finisher from the regional to semi state, if only 5.4% advance and 66% of matches were decided by fall?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Perhaps not; however, don't you want to have 16-guys at Semi-State (and State for that matter) to make the bracket work out?   Are you proposing you take only the top three from each regional?  Seems like that would be problematic when drawing brackets at semi-state where there are an odd number of feeder sectionals.     Assuming your math is correct...of the folks you are proposing to exclude, 44% were competitive (they did not get pinned), and 5.4% (3 out of 56) beat the number one guy!   

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I don't need to see his work...that's the probability for all getting through that I get with the same assumptions in place.

Edited by maligned

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Hook and Half did some research for me last year and from 2011 to 2016 I believe there were only three wrestlers who placed at state that got 4th at regionals.

 

John Sims-2nd

Paul Konrath-3rd

Bailey Shrober-8th

 

John and Paul both injury defaulted to 4th place their respective years.

 

The first round of semi state is brutal to watch as a spectator.

 

Theoretically the first round of semi state has 672 minutes of regulation wrestling.

If we remove the 4th pace finisher, that changes to 336 minutes of wrestling.

 

We could add wrestle backs from the ticket round on and that would add an extra 280 minutes of regulation wrestling to the tournament.

 

We could add wrestle backs to third place and actually save 56 minutes of match time. I think it would be much more spectator friendly and it would do a lot to ensure the best 4 wrestlers made it to the state tournament.

 

I did this on my cell phone so sorry if it is difficult to read or my math is incorrect. Thanks

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Question #1:  Is it necessary to have the 4th place finisher from the regional to semi state, if only 5.4% advance and 66% of matches were decided by fall?

 

SImple Answer: No. It's not remotely necessary. 

 

In the entire state, how many regional 4's successfully get past the ticket round? 2? maybe 3?

 

Going back to 3 per regional could shorten the day at semi-state and allow us to have wrestle backs from the quarterfinals. Not that the IHSAA would ever go for it given they would lose money on ticket sales.

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Here is a question I was looking at in regards to the topic at hand. How many kids lost in the ticket round only to become state champion the next year. I can think of 4 off the top of my head.

 

Cayden Rooks

Dylan Lydy

Riley McClurg

Sam Wilderman

 

I'm not sure the Ihsaa would lose that much money in admission. Seeing the better wrestlers wrestle more times should attract more outside fans. (I.e. Not parents and family of wrestlers)

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Thank you scrambled legs for opening the door to question 4 (you skipped #3, but I'll make sure we come back to that one!)

 

Let's take a look at specific reasons IHSAA wants "things"

 

Fairness of our sport and teams they govern

Keeping in alignment with the rest of sports they govern  

They do have to make money

 

I am quick to get frustrated with decisions the IHSAA makes, but always try to look at things from their perspective, and almost every time I can see where they are coming from. 

 

Question 4:

How can we, as an association, present the info in a way that shows fairness, doesn't mess with other sports asking for the same thing, and doesn't cost the association loss in revenue?

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Here is a question I was looking at in regards to the topic at hand. How many kids lost in the ticket round only to become state champion the next year. I can think of 4 off the top of my head.

 

Cayden Rooks

Dylan Lydy

Riley McClurg

Sam Wilderman

 

I'm not sure the Ihsaa would lose that much money in admission. Seeing the better wrestlers wrestle more times should attract more outside fans. (I.e. Not parents and family of wrestlers)

Billy Baker lost to the eventual champ in the ticket round, then won it the next year.

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That is changing variables.  I'm not sure those guys that lost in the ticket round finished 4th in the regional the year before, and we're not talking about advancement the year after! 

 

Stay on task friends! (which is very close to getting to question #7)

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That is changing variables.  I'm not sure those guys that lost in the ticket round finished 4th in the regional the year before, and we're not talking about advancement the year after! 

 

Stay on task friends! (which is very close to getting to question #7)

 

 

P what is more challenging.... teaching this lesson to the Indiana adult wrestling world and keeping them on task... or teaching how to represent a fraction on a number line to 3rd grader's at Jones Elementary back in 2004?

Edited by Wade McClurg

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"4th place was pinned  66% of matches (37 of 56)"


 


 


 " Assuming your math is correct...of the folks you are proposing to exclude, 44% were competitive (they did not get pinned), and 5.4% (3 out of 56) beat the number one guy!"


 


 


66% + 44%= ?   Not 100%, but 110%. Which is what we should always give when doing anything! 

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Ok, on the thread about "Toughest Regional" the statement was asked,

 

"What would be the result if only the top 3 from regional moved on to SS as in years past?

Should we go back to top 3?

 

 

We have a freshman named Suhas Chundi we like a lot and he's quite proficient in math!  Last week I asked him to do a statistics problem for us.  (Maligned, I can scan his work and send to you if you'd like to double check)

 

I asked him to give us the probability of the top 4 guys getting out of semi state if they were randomly placed into regionals (knowing that if they were the top 4 in the semi state, there is no chance of them not getting out of the sectional).  

 

Assuming that there are no upsets, and that the #1 guy in semi state always beats #2, and 2 always beats 3 and three always beats 4, there is only a 40.6% chance that all 4 get out.

 

Because of our blind draw without wrestlebacks from the quarters, the 4th best guy in the semi state will draw into 1-3 best guy 40.7% of the time and the 3rd best guy will draw into 1-2 best guy 19.75%

 

 

I don't remember the exact year that we added the 4th place finisher from Regionals to semi state, but here is the results from New Castle this year (this is my math so this one could be off! ha!)

 

4th place wrestler lost to 1st place wrestler 94.6% (53 of 56)

4th place was pinned  66% of matches (37 of 56)

 

Question #1:  Is it necessary to have the 4th place finisher from the regional to semi state, if only 5.4% advance and 66% of matches were decided by fall?

I did some analysis on 4th regional placers at all the SS.  I added up all the 4th place finishers that qualified for state out all four semi-states.   I found that only 7 of them qualified for state or only 3.125% of the total state placers took 4th in regional.   I also did the math on Regional 3rd place finishers.  Only 15 of them qualified for state out of the four SS or  6.7% of the total state qualifiers.    You might find interesting at Evansville,  five kids that placed 4th at regional qualified for state but only two kids that placed 3rd at regional qualified for  state.    

 

I personally wouldn't be in favor of moving to 3 kids qualifying.  Sounds like something only Indiana would do.   But if you went to 3, maybe it would be better just to have 2 kids come out of regional.        The success rate of  the 3rd place kids is only marginally better than the 4th place kids.     At least you would have a even bracket.   How would you have 12 qualify,   then  you have 4 byes.   That's not right.   Also, this would eliminate the excuse about not enough time to do wrestle backs.

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I personally wouldn't be in favor of moving to 3 kids qualifying.  Sounds like something only Indiana would do.   

 

Are you saying you'd rather include the 4th place finishers at regionals knowing that 93% of them didn't qualify and not start the discussion now how do we stop 60% of the weight classes don't get the best four because of random draw?

 

Up until around 10 years ago the semi state had 12 man brackets.  

 

Would our association be in favor of bringing 12 man brackets back into discussion?

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Are you saying you'd rather include the 4th place finishers at regionals knowing that 93% of them didn't qualify and not start the discussion now how do we stop 60% of the weight classes don't get the best four because of random draw?

 

Up until around 10 years ago the semi state had 12 man brackets.  

 

Would our association be in favor of bringing 12 man brackets back into discussion?

Id rather keep 16 man brackets than 12.  Just don't think its right when the #1 seeds get a bye.    Based on my one analysis,  97% of #4s don't qualify,   also 93% of the kids that got 3rd place in regionals don't qualify either, so based on your logic wold you not include the 3rd regional placers and got to an 8 man bracket at SS.

 

What I would like to see is combine two sectionals and eliminate the regional weekend of the state tournament series.  A month is to long, at least get it down to 3 weeks.   Maybe i'm a traditionalist, but I would have wrestlebacks at all levels.  That's just part of wrestling, at least in the rest of the country.

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Got it and I agree with the 3 week state tourney series, but that's a different conversation than this one.

 

If we keep 16 man brackets, it is impossible to have wrestle backs.  It would be against NHSF Rules for having more than 5 matches in a day.

 

Given a choice would we prefer 12 man brackets and wrestle backs from the quarters or would we prefer 16 man brackets?

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Got it and I agree with the 3 week state tourney series, but that's a different conversation than this one.

 

If we keep 16 man brackets, it is impossible to have wrestle backs.  It would be against NHSF Rules for having more than 5 matches in a day.

 

Given a choice would we prefer 12 man brackets and wrestle backs from the quarters or would we prefer 16 man brackets?

Couldn't you have wrestlebacks from the quarterfinals? That would only be five matches if the first round losers were done... I think i'm right on that...

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You are absolutely right with the amount of matches in a day.

 

Where it becomes impossible is if you have four mats.  The semi state would be from 9:00am through 11:00pm. 

 

Here's the question I'm trying to ask our association.  Would we rather have:

 

A) 4 regional qualifiers to regionals

B) 3 regional qualifiers to make semi state potential wrestlebacks possible

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You are absolutely right with the amount of matches in a day.

 

Where it becomes impossible is if you have four mats.  The semi state would be from 9:00am through 11:00pm. 

 

Here's the question I'm trying to ask our association.  Would we rather have:

 

A) 4 regional qualifiers to regionals

B) 3 regional qualifiers to make semi state potential wrestlebacks possible

Definitely rather have 3 regional qualifiers and wrestlebacks from the quarterfinals.

 

Addressing the issues to the IHSAA:

 

Money: present evidence that the extra revenue from having 4 more guys per weight still alive for a wrestleback round later in the day offsets all or most of the lost revenue from 4 guys per weight not being around in the first round (i.e. extra concessions purchased and possibly different pricing structure possible for whole vs half day entry that could lure some more late arrivals if there were still 8 kids alive per weight even after the 2nd round). Recommended research to do: revenue earned and ticket prices charged at each site pre-16-man brackets vs total revenue earned and ticket prices charged now. Also, what part of that was from concessions with 12-man brackets and what part is concessions now.

 

Time: this is the easy one. Take away 4 matches per weight in the first round (roughly 2 hours) and replace them with a fast 2 matches per weight wrestle back first round in the afternoon (roughly 1 hour on 4 mats). Wrestle back semi's could be done simultaneously with the semi-finals on outside mats and not waste any time. Total: save 1 hour

 

"Losers don't stick around in other sports": I've said this a bunch of times. We have to get away from trying to convince them that every other state does it so we should do it. Other states also conduct tournaments differently from sport to sport, allow seeding of team and individual events, have classed individual sports, etc., etc. It's falling on deaf, unmoved ears. Instead, we need to help them understand that wrestling is more similar to Track or Swimming or Gymnastics where it is a FIELD of competitors competing against the entire FIELD for a day of competition. Tennis is always long, single elimination matches. Wrestling isn't tennis. Wrestling is short bursts of competition bundled together for an overall day-long performance just as Track events pit all competitors against each other and Swimming pits all competitors against each other in phases with best times advancing in rounds. We don't get all swimmers together at regional, run randomly drawn heats, and take the heat winners to state. We run heats and put the best against the best and take the genuine best at each site to state. We want the same for wrestling. We're all at the same venue with the chance to do a daylong competition as we always do. Please allow us to conduct our competitions in the same way Track and Swimming and Gymnastics do: full field head-to-head.

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You are absolutely right with the amount of matches in a day.

 

Where it becomes impossible is if you have four mats.  The semi state would be from 9:00am through 11:00pm. 

 

Here's the question I'm trying to ask our association.  Would we rather have:

 

A) 4 regional qualifiers to regionals

B) 3 regional qualifiers to make semi state potential wrestlebacks possible

I like this proposal. 3 from regional with wrestle backs to 3rd at semi-state. I also would like to see 3 advance to state with the same format. 

Edited by takemtothemat

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