Y2CJ41 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Check them out! http://www.indianamat.com/2011-preseason-genius-ratings/2011/10/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccbig Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I thought these were very interesting last year. I think the formula still needs a little bit of tweeking for instance as was mentioned with large teams being able to reload in a way not measured by the rating. Based on returnees and performance in the off season Perry Meridian looks very strong. IMO the ratings system is placing Hamilton Southeastern, Center Grove & Cathedral too high on this list. Teams that are under rated IMO are Penn, Mishawaka & Bellmont. Further down the list I think Jimtown is also very under rated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hamilton Southeastern returns I believe 13 starters from a team that lost to runner-up Lawrence North on tiebreaker criteria. They are not too high when they were "first points scored" from being at team state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flightinstructor Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hamilton Southeastern returns I believe 13 starters from a team that lost to runner-up Lawrence North on tiebreaker criteria. They are not too high when they were "first points scored" from being at team state. Penn went down to the last match with PM while LN was beaten by nearly 30 in the finals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Penn returns 8 starters and Hamilton Southeastern returns 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccbig Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Penn returns 8 starters and Hamilton Southeastern returns 13 As stated on the Genius page Penn has a "Varsity 2" team that would have placed in the top 30 on its own. Add the 8 Varsity returners and the others from "Varsity 2" and Penn's spot at 10 is likely VERY under rated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flightinstructor Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Penn returns 8 starters and Hamilton Southeastern returns 13 I'm well aware of that and am also well aware that HSE will be very tough...not really sure what my point was. Lol. The flaws are evident, its not like these rankings are a science ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 As stated on the Genius page Penn has a "Varsity 2" team that would have placed in the top 30 on its own. Add the 8 Varsity returners and the others from "Varsity 2" and Penn's spot at 10 is likely VERY under rated. So even though it is stated that there are some flaws you still have to complain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccbig Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So even though it is stated that there are some flaws you still have to complain? Don't be so sensitive. Not complaining, stating an opinion. Hope we still allow those even if they differ from mods... don't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Feel free to come up with your perfect formula and I will post it. He mentioned your examples specifically as potential flaws and you still felt the need to complain about it. What does that say? It is an item to create discussion four days before the season starts, it is not set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccbig Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Feel free to come up with your perfect formula and I will post it. He mentioned your examples specifically as potential flaws and you still felt the need to complain about it. What does that say? It is an item to create discussion four days before the season starts, it is not set in stone. Wow.... just wow.... : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Penn is right where they should be in the preseason based off what they did last year and based off what wrestlers are returning. Penn loses six seniors from last year including their top two wrestlers and you want them to be higher? I can't wait until you come here to complain about the early Genius Ratings when there will be a disclaimer saying that there is not enough data yet for them to be as accurate as they can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm well aware of that and am also well aware that HSE will be very tough...not really sure what my point was. Lol. The flaws are evident, its not like these rankings are a science ;D Well, kind of. Geniusology 101--coming soon to a university near you. In all seriousness, it's a lot like economics. Everything about economics is collecting data and running models using the data available. Models always have strengths and limitations. Preseason ratings will always have many more limitations than near the season's end when Genius POTENTIAL is predicting an enormous percentage of winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I thought these were very interesting last year. I think the formula still needs a little bit of tweeking for instance as was mentioned with large teams being able to reload in a way not measured by the rating. Based on returnees and performance in the off season Perry Meridian looks very strong. IMO the ratings system is placing Hamilton Southeastern, Center Grove & Cathedral too high on this list. Teams that are under rated IMO are Penn, Mishawaka & Bellmont. Further down the list I think Jimtown is also very under rated. I appreciate your thoughts. To be clear: this is a special one-time only formula for preseason that incorporates a large number of parameters (some mentioned, some not). In-season data will use strictly real results and become much more accurate in the long run. Also, program depth is not explicitly implied in the calculation, but it is implicitly included in that there is an assumption that an average amount of returning quality will keep a high level team very near its previous season's level. The deficiency in the calculation is the lack of component that differentiates between various programs' abilities to stay at a previous level of team quality when returning less than average individual quality. I agree that Penn will move up some and Mishawaka a little. Bellmont should also move up a little, but I don't think they'll be top 10. I'm not sure yet if Reitz and HSE are overrated in the Top 5. They're going to be very, very strong. Cathedral also has a murderer's row. CG may be slightly too high. We'll see. There isn't room in the Top 10 for everyone. I've had Jimtown around #20 each of the last two years while rankings services ignored them. So I know they can be neglected. But being objective, they've got almost exactly an average number of starters and average % of starter quality returning. They're probably very near where they belong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melco Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It doesn't really matter, what matters occurs in February!!! Can't wait for the season to start!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU89 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You can rank Reitz as high as you want, NO WAY they beat EMD! There top 3-4 guys are better, but it takes 14. EMD, as usual, will have no weaknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Feel free to come up with your perfect formula and I will post it. He mentioned your examples specifically as potential flaws and you still felt the need to complain about it. What does that say? It is an item to create discussion four days before the season starts, it is not set in stone. Just put it out there, and let it be... Arguing back and forth with people and defending every little mistake or nuance makes you look unprofessional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It is an item to create discussion four days before the season starts, it is not set in stone. it did start discussion... but looks like discussion about the formula.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 I am sorry I defend the work of the people on this website. I just find it iritating that there is a disclaimer that states the exact issues ccbig has in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimtown 138 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 As stated on the Genius page Penn has a "Varsity 2" team that would have placed in the top 30 on its own. Add the 8 Varsity returners and the others from "Varsity 2" and Penn's spot at 10 is likely VERY under rated. Not the same as "Varsity" guys though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbower Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Good job it looks close enough to me. Lets just wait and let them lace it up and fight it out over the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I like the genius ratings. It's a cool idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caleb Spires Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Further down the list I think Jimtown is also very under rated. I will wahoo you every time I see your name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aoberlin Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 We are going to spank the 26th ranked team. :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 When do you see Southmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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