Breakdown of IHSWCA State Duals leaderboard scenarios and possible class movement

[maligned]

Here are breakdowns of the current State Duals qualification leaderboards, including potential effects of classification movement when class assignments become official after the IHSAA releases its 2015-17 enrollment numbers in March.

 

Class 3A

 

Semi-state automatic bid leaders: Warren Central-168 (New Castle), Penn-154 (Merrillville), Evansville Mater Dei-148 (Evansville), Carroll-138 (Ft. Wayne)

 

Only the Ft. Wayne auto bid race really matters because the other three semi-states' leaders will all fall into overall automatic bid territory.  Even if they do not get the semi-state auto bids, Warren Central, Penn, and Evansville Mater Dei already have nice scores and will score big points this weekend, almost certainly securing bids for themselves.

 

Current Ft. Wayne standings: Carroll-138, Elkhart Memorial-116 (all others have no chance to catch Carroll or to earn a wildcard bid)

 

Memorial could win the majority of its first round semi-state matches and get up to the 165 range or so in points.  If they do this, Carroll will need its 11-man semi-state contingency to win some combination of 6 or 7 first and second round matches to wrap up the Ft Wayne auto bid.

 

Current Wildcard Standings (6 automatic bids, 2 additional vote-ins):

 

About 180-185 needed to get an automatic wildcard bid.  About 165-170 needed to get into voting consideration.  On Saturday, underclassmen score 6 points for first round wins and seniors get 5.  Everyone gets 3 for second round wins in 3A.

 

Brownsburg 164  (very high score will probably sustain auto bid territory even with only 8 at SS)

Portage 152 (big score coming, virtual lock)

Perry Meridian 150 (massive score coming, lock)

Valparaiso 142 (surprisingly has a shot; 10 guys alive with decent draws could get them to the low 170s and even higher with some luck)

Lawrence North 141 (12 guys alive and some good points coming, solid shot to get an auto bid)

Cathedral 138 (big points coming will probably keep them in auto bid territory or very near)

 

Next in line:

Zionsville 138 (limited scoring from here on out; long shot for the 180 to 185 needed; vote-in consideration possible)

Carmel    135.0 (limited scoring from here; long shot)
Center Grove    134.0 (very long shot with only 4 guys left)
Jennings County    134.0 (a dark horse candidate; 11 guys left: two #1 seeds and 5 of the 9 others drew Bloomington S. regional opponents, the weakest of the 3 they could face)
Hobart    132.0 (chance at vote-in spot is probably max potential)
Castle    126.0 (same as Hobart)
South Bend Riley    124.0 (long shot)
Mishawaka    124.0 (long shot)
Avon    121.0 (numerous seniors finally get to score big points; could make a late push toward a big score or at least vote-in consideration)
New Castle    116.0 (long shot)
Bloomington North    116.0 (long shot)
Elkhart Memorial    116.0 (chance at vote-in level and outside shot to push Carroll for Ft. Wayne spot)
Hamilton Southeastern    116.0 (will score some points, but only 7 guys left means they need a great day Saturday)
Crown Point    114.0 (same as Avon)
Merrillville    113.0 (same as Avon and Crown Point)

 

POSSIBLE RE-CLASSIFICATION MOVEMENT affecting 3A: Only New Palestine.  Currently at 128 in 3A scoring system, with 6 solid guys left.  They would have a potential shot at vote-in consideration, though an auto bid would be unlikely if they move up.

 

Class 2A

 

Semi-state automatic bid leaders: Delta-178 (Ft. Wayne), Mt. Vernon-Posey-174 (Evansville), New Palestine-174 (New Castle), West Lafayette-152 (Merrillville)

 

General picture: Ft. Wayne and Evansville races don't really matter because their winners will also be in overall automatic bid territory.  Whatever the case, Delta, Mt. Vernon, and New Palestine (if they stay in 2A) are all virtually assured of automatic bids one way or another.

 

Merrillville race: Although West Lafayette may not end up in overall automatic bid territory, the Merrillville 2A race is virtually over.  Outside of Delphi getting 4 state champs or Plymouth moving down from 3A and getting a few state champs, there's no scenario where West Lafayette doesn't get a bid.

 

New Castle race: With some class movement and an awful performance or two, there's a slim chance this champion matters.  If New Pal moves up to 3A and New Castle comes down, it could come down to South Dearborn trying to hold off Southmont, New Castle, North Montgomery and Lebanon. But in almost every scenario, this champion is in overall auto bid territory anyway.

 

Current Wildcard Standings (6 automatic bids, 2 additional vote-ins):

 

About 155-160 needed to get an automatic wildcard bid.  About 140 needed to get into voting consideration.  On Saturday, underclassmen score 5 points for first round wins and seniors get 2.  Everyone gets 2 for second round wins in 2A.  There is somewhat less drama here than in 3A.

 

Bellmont 176 (lock to qualify automatically)

Yorktown 172 (lock)

Evansville Memorial 170 (probably a lock even if they do nothing more)

South Dearborn 160 (probably only 5 more points puts them at lock status; they've got 9 guys to work on that this weekend)

Southmont 157 (Could use another win or two. New Castle could come down and Oak Hill could move up, both of which could jump Southmont, in addition to a couple teams from this list.  There's a very good chance they will move down to 1A though.)

Jimtown 148 (Definitely in a battle with teams listed below...need a good weekend from their 6 guys.)

 

From the list below, Leo through Franklin County all have a legitimate shot to break into the top 10 and get an auto bid, but they need to go to work this weekend.  Gibson Southern and Columbia City could have an outside shot.  The others listed here are long shots for auto bids, but have legitimate chances to get into voting consideration.  All others in 2A are eliminated or are significant underdogs to reach any qualification level:

 

Leo    144.0
North Montgomery    144.0
Lebanon    144.0
Franklin County    139.0
Gibson Southern    136.0
Garrett    135.0
Columbia City    134.0
NorthWood    132.0
Hamilton Heights    129.0
Peru    120.0

 

POSSIBLE RE-CLASSIFICATION MOVEMENT affecting 2A:  Oak Hill and New Castle would both be at 150 if they moved up from 1A or down from 3A, respectively.  Both would be in strong contention for automatic bids and would be locks for at least vote-in consideration.  Jay County would be at 134 and Roncalli at 130 if they moved down from 3A.  Both would have a shot to get into vote-in consideration.

 

Class 1A

 

Semi-state automatic bid leaders: Prairie Heights (Ft. Wayne), Monrovia (Evansville), Bremen (Merrillville), Knightstown (New Castle)

 

None of these 4 semi-state races really matter since all 4 of these teams are locked into overall Top 10 positions anyway.  Even if 3 contending teams moved down from 2A to 1A and none of these 3 scored any more points, they'd still be Top 10, no matter what.  Prairie Hts. and Knightstown could get passed by others in their semi-state, but again, it doesn't matter for earning an automatic position.

 

Current Wildcard Standings (6 automatic bids, 2 additional vote-ins):

 

Because of what I mentioned above about semi-state auto bids not mattering here, it's simple that you just need to be in the Top 10.  Here is detailed analysis of current rankings and exactly what has to happen for each team listed to be Top 10, INCLUDING TEAMS THAT COULD BE RE-CLASSIFIED INTO 1A:

 

Note: Underclassmen score 3 points for first round semi-state wins and 1 more point for second round wins.  Seniors are finished scoring in 1A.

 

1    Prairie Heights 217.0

2    Oak Hill    205.0  (Top 10 lock if they stay here; some chance of moving up to 2A)
3    Adams Central    202.0 (lock)

      Southmont 196.0 (currently 2A; significant chance of moving down; small 9th/10th grade classes from previous data; lock if they're in 1A)
4    Monrovia    193.0 (lock)
5    Bremen    186.0 (lock)
6    Knightstown    171.0 (lock)
7    Centerville    160.0 (significant chance of moving up to 2A; large 9th/10th grade classes from previous data; virtual lock if they stay)
8    Triton    159.0 (lock UNLESS two teams come down & are ahead of them AND no one significant goes up AND Eastern Hancock passes them)

      Southridge 159.0 (currently 2A; very small chance of moving down; 1 SS victory to be a lock if they come down )
9    Eastern Hancock    157.0 (own tiebreaker over Triton and Tecumseh; lock UNLESS 2 teams come down AND they don't pass Triton or Centerville)
10    Tecumseh    157.0 (finished scoring & can't pass or be passed by current 1A teams; need # of teams ahead of them to stay the same or less)

       Delphi 156.0 (currently 2A, but some chance of moving down; 5 underclassmen still alive; 1 victory makes them a lock if they're here)
11    Winchester    150.0 (finished scoring; need # of teams ahead of them to decrease)
12    Attica    149.0 (1 guy alive. If he wins, need # of teams at Tecumseh level and higher to decrease by 1. If he loses, need list to decrease by 2.)
13    Churubusco    147.0 [Need their 1 underclassman to go to state (Winchester owns tiebreaker over them) & Attica's guy to lose & top 10 list to decrease by 1]

 

These schools are still alive for vote-in consideration, but need 12th place to be 15 points or less ahead of them.  Lake Station is finished scoring and they are locked into vote-in consideration--no more, no less.  Absolute minimum situation for others is Lake Station in 12th and others needing 129 points to be alive.  More likely, 132-135 will be needed:
14    Lake Station Edison    144.0
15    Milan    132.0
16    Elwood    132.0
19    North White    129.0
20    Fremont    128.0
25    North Miami    116.0

 

POSSIBLE RE-CLASSIFICATION MOVEMENT affecting 1A:  See above list (Southmont, Southridge, Delphi).

Edited February 11, 2015 by maligned

[overtime]

How many points do EMD and WC have?

[maligned]

edited above...but the full leaderboards, with scores, remaining wrestlers, and available points for each team are posted in very clear separate threads

[TeamGarcia]

I'll get the lobbying started for Avon Vote in , if it comes to that . Avon has one of the best in coming Freshman Class that Indiana has seen years or decades . Avon 8th graders will be on display this weekend at IHSWCA Middle School State . Be a shame that this talent isn't showcased at a State Event . Good Luck to all the Avon Wrestlers these next two weeks .

[warsawwrestling]

I'll get the lobbying started for Avon Vote in , if it comes to that . Avon has one of the best in coming Freshman Class that Indiana has seen years or decades . Avon 8th graders will be on display this weekend at IHSWCA Middle School State . Be a shame that this talent isn't showcased at a State Event . Good Luck to all the Avon Wrestlers these next two weeks .

Unless you have letter of intents signed I don't know if that counts.  LOL

[ENoblewrestling]

Hey curious as to what the "tiebreaker" is when it talks about Busco and Winchester?

[maligned]

Hey curious as to what the "tiebreaker" is when it talks about Busco and Winchester?

First tiebreaker if 2 teams are even is most underclassmen starters.  I specifically mentioned it because if Partin wins first round and loses 2nd round this weekend, you'll be tied with Winchester in points.  They had 9 underclassmen starters and you had 8.  As the info describes above, this is important because that tie could end up being for 10th place depending on teams' classification movements.

[ENoblewrestling]

Thanks!  You guys are doing an awesome job of keeping everybody aware of the qualification process.

[Blane Culp]

Tie breaker is coach with the best looking hair, and since yours is now gone...you lose.

[KarlHungus]

Winchester has a race track, Busco has the Magic Wand....push.

[AJ]

Winchester has a race track, Busco has the Magic Wand....push.

 

Winchester has a race track and a drive-in.. That is double the excitement ...

[ENoblewrestling]

Winchester has a race track and a drive-in.. That is double the excitement ...

We have the Beast of Busco...

 

The story starts in 1898, when a farmer named Oscar Fulk supposedly saw a giant turtle living in the seven-acre lake on his farm near Churubusco. He told others about it, but eventually he decided to leave it alone.^[2]

A half century later, in July 1948, two Churubusco citizens, Ora Blue and Charley Wilson, also reported seeing a huge turtle (weighing an estimated 500 pounds) while fishing on the same lake, which had come to be known as Fulk Lake. A farmer named Gale Harris owned the land at that time. Harris and others also reported seeing the creature. Word spread.^[3]

In early 1949, a UPI reporter from Fort Wayne sent the story out on the wire services, and the turtle became nationally famous.^[4]

Curious mobs of sightseers began to invade Harris’ land. Traffic got so bad that the state police had to be called in for traffic control.^[5]

People questioned the existence of the turtle. To vindicate his good name, Harris made several attempts to catch the beast, including draining the lake with the help of Orville Bright and Kenneth Leitch.^[6] But "Oscar" (named after the original owner of the farm) was never captured.^{[7][8][9][10]}

In March 1949, an attempt to send a deep-sea diver into the pond failed when the wrong equipment was delivered to the Harris farm.^[11]

A photographer for Life Magazine, Mike Shea, took 299 photos at the site, but they were deemed unusable.^[12] However, dozens of photos related to the history of the Beast are archived for viewing on the Web site of the Indianapolis Star.

Cultural impact[edit]

Oscar's memory lives on in Churubusco's Turtle Days festival held each June.^[13] It includes a parade, carnival and turtle races.^[14]

A turtle shell labeled "Beast of Busco" hangs in the Two Brothers Restaurant in Decatur, Indiana.

A small concrete statue of a turtle sits on the sidewalk at the main intersection in the center of Churubusco.

 

Tie breaker is coach with the best looking hair, and since yours is now gone...you lose.

That is cold man.  We haven't been the same since I cut it though.  

Edited February 11, 2015 by buscowrestling