Some more stats from 2015 State

[DLuther]

I am curious as to what the real chances of classing state are? Does anyone have an idea on the feelings of the IHSAA on this? I know the survey asked about having 32 qualify for state so is that a sign that they are more likely to make the ticket round part of the state finals as opposed to considering a class system?

Edited March 6, 2015 by DLuther

[warsawwrestling]

If EMD can move themselves to 3A can I vote to move us to 1A

I am curious as to what the real chances of classing state are? Does anyone have an idea on the feelings of he IHSAA on this? I know the survey asked about having 32 qualify for state so is that a sign that they are more likely to make the ticket round part of the state finals as opposed to considering a class system?

well you see, everyone else does.

[Super_Fan]

You are forgiven.  Thought you might be interpreting the statistics for your argument's sake

 

Emotional arguments are rarely pusuasive

But emotions are the best driving force behind getting someone to commit more time to an action correct?

 

So classing wrestling could.....maybe.....might......probably will help small school athletes.  Not seeing a lot of actual evidence to sway me in that direction. There are a lot of other states that should probably have class wrestling due to the size.  Florida has 20 million people, Illinois has 13 million people, Pennsylvania has 12.5 million people, Ohio has 11 million people, Michigan 10 million people.  Indiana has a lot less than that.  

 

Like someone said above. Use EMD's statistics with the small schools to properly state your case.  

 

Teams like Bellmont, Yorktown, EMD, Jimtown seem to do okay every year.  They even manage really good football teams most years.  How do their kids find time to be good in both?  Maybe they have really good coaching.  

 

No, they just have something in the water... Maybe we should bottle it and send it across the state

[Barry Humble Jr.]

Cross Country was going through this same debate on their message boards earlier this year as they are not classed as well and some guy made a interesting post...

It went something like this..

Basically he said he would give a large amount of money to anyone who could go coach at a small school and coach that team to a top 5 finish at state.

There were some rules such as, no paid assistants, 4 years to do it, and so on. 

the bottom line on this issue is small school teams and the MAJORITY of wrestlers will not do well in a one class system, that is a FACT. If people are okay with this then there is no need to class it. 

[Super_Fan]

Cross Country was going through this same debate on their message boards earlier this year as they are not classed as well and some guy made a interesting post...

It went something like this..

Basically he said he would give a large amount of money to anyone who could go coach at a small school and coach that team to a top 5 finish at state.

There were some rules such as, no paid assistants, 4 years to do it, and so on. 

the bottom line on this issue is small school teams and the MAJORITY of wrestlers will not do well in a one class system, that is a FACT. If people are okay with this then there is no need to class it. 

This just proves that its the lack of athletes/ or their willingness to specialize, like big schools, at these small schools... Not the coaching, time frame, or so on...

 

Also the point of a state tourney is to ELIMINATE the MAJORITY and find the best...

Edited March 6, 2015 by Super_Fan

[Y2CJ41]

So classing wrestling could.....maybe.....might......probably will help small school athletes.  Not seeing a lot of actual evidence to sway me in that direction. There are a lot of other states that should probably have class wrestling due to the size.  Florida has 20 million people, Illinois has 13 million people, Pennsylvania has 12.5 million people, Ohio has 11 million people, Michigan 10 million people.  Indiana has a lot less than that.  

 

Like someone said above. Use EMD's statistics with the small schools to properly state your case.  

 

Teams like Bellmont, Yorktown, EMD, Jimtown seem to do okay every year.  They even manage really good football teams most years.  How do their kids find time to be good in both?  Maybe they have really good coaching.  

Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, South Carolina, Oregon, Oklahoma, do I really need to show you the 25ish states with smaller populations that class?

 

Even Alaska and Wyoming class wrestling!!!!

 

Even with Mater Dei there still aren't the same wrestlers with the "state placer" gene at 1A as should be.

[Super_Fan]

Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, South Carolina, Oregon, Oklahoma, do I really need to show you the 25ish states with smaller populations that class?

 

Even Alaska and Wyoming class wrestling!!!!

 

Even with Mater Dei there still aren't the same wrestlers with the "state placer" gene at 1A as should be.

I bet its a whole lot closer than you would like to admit to though...

[Galagore]

I bet its a whole lot closer than you would like to admit to though...

 

Instead of "betting" why don't to run the numbers?  Why does everyone expect Joe to do their math for them?  For crying out loud if you want to prove a point, PROVE IT.  Don't sit there and tell someone else to run numbers for you so you can simply point and say, "HA-HA Exactly as I expected!"

[Rookies03]

1 Turkey Run 161

2 Blue River Valley 185

3 Faith Christian 191

4 Frontier 227

5 Rockville 234

6 Attica 240

7 North Vermillion 250

8 Culver Community 251

9 New Washington 252

10 South Newton 252

11 Washington 254

12 Pioneer 260

13 Daleville 262

14 Lafayette Central Catholic 264

15 North White 264

16 Tri 267

17 Wood Memorial 274

18 Union City 279

19 West Central 280

20 Tecumseh 281

21 Southern Wells 282

22 Caston 290

23 Clinton Prairie 297

24 Wes-Del 297

25 North Miami 299

26 Tri Central 303

27 Triton 304

28 Clinton Central 310

29 Covington 315

30 Cambridge City Lincoln 321

31 Rossville 321

32 Sheridan 324

33 Northfield 330

34 LaVille 331

35 Fremont 334

36 Southwood 336

37 Hagerstown 338

38 Monroe Central 338

39 Carroll (Flora) 343

40 Hebron 349

41 Seeger 362

42 Adams Central 363

43 South Putnam 366

44 Fountain Central 373

45 Eastern (Greentown) 374

46 Knightstown 375

47 North Knox 380

48 North Judson 381

49 Shenandoah 385

50 Lake Station Edison 387

51 Tell City 389

52 South Adams 390

53 Wapahani 391

54 Eastside 393

 

When I look at the list that Y2 put together what jumps out to me are these 1A schools. I still believe 1 individual is not dependent on his/her school size to make it to state but when you hear the argument for class wrestling is that small school are struggling I look at this list. Looking at schools with just a couple hundred boys it would be very hard to find more than a few high quality wrestlers (and by high quality I mean kids that have the potential to make it to state). It doesn't mean that some of these schools don't have quality programs. It doesn't mean that there is this huge unfair advantage against big school. It just means they have so very few kids to choose from.

 

Will classing wrestling do much for these programs? I don't know. When you only have 100-200 boys to choose from having more opportunities still wont change the fact that a certain % have no interest in sports, a certain % need to work, a certain % wont make grades, and a certain % just wont have any athletic ability.

 

Whats the right answer? I don't know but its been a fun week reading all these post!

[warsawwrestling]

Where do we stop.  Maybe class Semi-State so other have a chance to win state?

 

State champions per Semi-State:
Evansville (E): 3 ~ 21.4%
Merrilleville (M): 7 ~ 50%
New Catle (NC): 3 ~ 21.4%
Fort Wayne (FW): 1 ~ 7.1%

[Super_Fan]

Instead of "betting" why don't to run the numbers?  Why does everyone expect Joe to do their math for them?  For crying out loud if you want to prove a point, PROVE IT.  Don't sit there and tell someone else to run numbers for you so you can simply point and say, "HA-HA Exactly as I expected!"

Because i shouldn't even be on here while at work let alone looking up data to figure out the numbers.

 

I'm sorry but i'm trying to save up that money so i can afford for my kids to attend those 2 required freestlyle/greco tourneys that we have to travel to indy for so they can wrestle state. Gotta keep the job

Edited March 6, 2015 by Super_Fan

[Y2CJ41]

Because i shouldn't even be on here while at work let alone looking up data to figure out the numbers.

I posted the spreadsheet with the data, it is actually pretty dynamic. Just change Mater Dei to 1A instead of 3A

[bog190]

Isn't Mater Dei a 2a school based on the new enrollments?

[Thor]

Isn't Mater Dei a 2a school based on the new enrollments?

In a 2 class system they would still be 1A

[warsawwrestling]

For the love of Ringworm would someone answer this that is for Class wrestling........

 

My point is simple.If 1 school can do it other can also.You guys are not using the correct multiplier.More students = more people that grow up to come back to teach, coach or whatever.Which means, since programs are not started by the little kids (current population) that are in wrestling, but by coaches and people (combination of past students) who care about wrestling, "your stats" are skewed.

[bog190]

In a 2 class system they would still be 1A

 

Thanks captain obvious. They were discussing moving them from 3a to 1a. So I take it they would be 2a in the 3 class version?

[Y2CJ41]

 

Thanks captain obvious. They were discussing moving them from 3a to 1a. So I take it they would be 2a in the 3 class version?

Actually they are 2A in a 3 class system now. They ARE the cutoff point. But I'll pretend the are in 1A

 

Qualifiers

1A 12.13%

2A 27.01%

3A 60.86%

 

Placers

1A 9.23%

2A 24.40%

3A 66.37%

 

They don't have enough born with the "state placer" gene.

[ENoblewrestling]

Your posts gets longer and make less sense.  This is the critera you selected. 13% is the number that YOU decided made the most sense.  Now that 1a isn't close to that number suddenly that skill set has vanished from the 1a population.  If all is equal then the percentages would fall in line, the fact is that they don't, and your useless comparisons prove that.

First off the only stat that 1A isn't close to 13% in is placers and champs.  Simply add Mater Dei to the 1A numbers and your data all becomes pretty much useless.  Secondly you asked me to try to explain why we see a drop off in placers, which I attempted to do, to be honest I am just trying to find a possible reason, I am not saying it is correct. Either way let me try to make my thought process a little more clear to you.

 

When I say that 13% of the qualifiers is what you would expect, that is when you look at the entire population of 1A.  If we are looking at 100% of the 1A population then it should be 13%.  

 

As we start to look at a talent that fewer and fewer people with-in the population has, you could eliminate some of the 1A school from the original population because they never had anyone in their school with that talent to begin with. So eventually you would be looking at 8 or 9% of the population not 13%.  

[bog190]

That still doesn't compute with your 13% logic, regardless of how you word it.  

 

And Mater Dei is a 2a school, so the data is still very useful

[DLuther]

I am curious as to what the real chances of classing state are? Does anyone have an idea on the feelings of the IHSAA on this? I know the survey asked about having 32 qualify for state so is that a sign that they are more likely to make the ticket round part of the state finals as opposed to considering a class system?

Edited by DLuther, Today, 02:55 PM.

[bog190]

And the qualifiers are at 9ish percent. That means 1a is only qualifying 72.4% of what they should. Not as close as it seems

[Y2CJ41]

I am curious as to what the real chances of classing state are? Does anyone have an idea on the feelings of the IHSAA on this? I know the survey asked about having 32 qualify for state so is that a sign that they are more likely to make the ticket round part of the state finals as opposed to considering a class system?

Edited by DLuther, Today, 02:55 PM.

Bobby Cox stated at the football selection show that the 6th class is great for football. He isn't opposed to it. It would take a proposal from probably track, cross country, wrestling, tennis to get it done. I would say it could happen, but no clue what the IHSAA is thinking.

First off the only stat that 1A isn't close to 13% in is placers and champs.  Simply add Mater Dei to the 1A numbers and your data all becomes pretty much useless.  Secondly you asked me to try to explain why we see a drop off in placers, which I attempted to do, to be honest I am just trying to find a possible reason, I am not saying it is correct. Either way let me try to make my thought process a little more clear to you.

 

When I say that 13% of the qualifiers is what you would expect, that is when you look at the entire population of 1A.  If we are looking at 100% of the 1A population then it should be 13%.  

 

As we start to look at a talent that fewer and fewer people with-in the population has, you could eliminate some of the 1A school from the original population because they never had anyone in their school with that talent to begin with. So eventually you would be looking at 8 or 9% of the population not 13%.  

Why does 1A have the right number of athletes with the "state qualifier" gene, yet not the right number with the "state placer" or "state champion" gene? It baffles me how this could be so disproportionate.  Please elaborate on this topic.

[Barry Humble Jr.]

This just proves that its the lack of athletes/ or their willingness to specialize, like big schools, at these small schools... Not the coaching, time frame, or so on...

 

Also the point of a state tourney is to ELIMINATE the MAJORITY and find the best...

Just curios because I just joined in on the argument, but what is the main reason of you not wanting a classed system?

[Super_Fan]

Just curios because I just joined in on the argument, but what is the main reason of you not wanting a classed system?

 Because:

 

1. It now gives a much more unfair advantage to 1A schools compared to the system we already have. With the voucher program kids can go to whatever school they want. If I'm an elite wrestler with this easier tourny to be a state champion why not dominate the 1A kids rather than struggle to just place at the 3A level?

 

2. The goal of class wrestling is to increase the amount of kids wrestling but seems to have a decent amount of people opposed to it. There are many other ways we can increase the amount of kids wrestling without changing the whole set up of our unique state tourney.

 

3. They argue about 1A kids not being able to compete with 3A kids. Classing wrestling will not make this fact any better. 1A wrestling will not be as good as 3A wrestling in depth or elite talent simply due to the probability of a school of 300 kids having elite wrestlers compared to a school of 4000 kids.

 

Im sure there are other things but I have a few patients here now so im strapped for time.

[Super_Fan]

Bobby Cox stated at the football selection show that the 6th class is great for football. He isn't opposed to it. It would take a proposal from probably track, cross country, wrestling, tennis to get it done. I would say it could happen, but no clue what the IHSAA is thinking.

Why does 1A have the right number of athletes with the "state qualifier" gene, yet not the right number with the "state placer" or "state champion" gene? It baffles me how this could be so disproportionate.  Please elaborate on this topic.

Strength of schedule? Maybe they lack the experience of wrestling intense tourneys because they are a 1A school and larger schools typically dont waste their time wrestling schools with only a few elite athletes. Hence why Penn sends its JV team to some of their dual meets. Maybe because those 1A kids only spent 70% of their summer on wrestling and 30% on football. Which is their choice. Not that they dont have the coaches or blah blah blah

 

None of these are reasons that would stop a kid from deciding he wants to be like a 3A athlete and only concentrate on wrestling. And being more successful like a big school kid

Edited March 6, 2015 by Super_Fan