Super_Fan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) Understandable. Many have tried to skew the "bet" into being something confusing, which it is not. I just wanted to make sure any late comers understood its simplicity. I apologize for my implications of your views on class wrestling. Ok bet me on this then... you can have 10,000 chickens and i can have 150,000 chickens in our farms... You get to pick 700 of your chickens to run in a race and i will pick just 100 of mine... Of course this is after we have raised our chickens and had practice races with these chickens and sorted through to find our fastest chickens out of the options we have on the farm... I would bet you $1000 dollars that if i have 150,000 chickens to find just 100 fast ones out of that i would have more placers in the race... Would you take me up on this bet? Because that is what you guys are asking... In fact if i use enrollment data from joes page there are ~70k 1A kids enrolled in those schools and ~230k students in 2A schools... so really you could have 70k chickens and i will now have 230k... But obviously just like student populations some will be girls that wont compete, some wont like running, some will like it but just wont be good enough to make varsity and so on. Just like what happens on the wrestling team... Edited March 5, 2015 by Super_Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Ok bet me on this then... you can have 10,000 chickens and i can have 150,000 chickens in our farms... You get to pick 700 of your chickens to run in a race and i will pick just 100 of mine... Of course this is after we have raised our chickens and had practice races with these chickens and sorted through to find our fastest chickens out of the options we have on the farm... I would bet you $1000 dollars that if i have 150,000 chickens to find just 100 fast ones out of that i would have more placers in the race... Would you take me up on this bet? Because that is what you guys are asking... In fact if i use enrollment data from joes page there are ~70k 1A kids enrolled in those schools and ~230k students in 2A schools... so really you could have 70k chickens and i will now have 230k... From my experience with chickens if they are of the same breed they are all pretty equal. Plus, on top of that I design software to keep them alive and well fed, soooo let's do it! This is what you aren't seeing. You are showing me reasons for a class system. If I can tell you that 140-150 of the state qualifiers will be from group A and 20-30 from group B based on just one metric there is something wrong. We all understand that Carroll will have more state qualifiers than Prairie Heights. We know that because of the SIZE OF THE SCHOOL. The size of the school matters, we know that, we agree with that. However, you seem to miss the point being that a single class system is about everyone being equal. Single class system says no matter where you are from you have an equal opportunity to be a state qualifier/placer/champion. The statistics say that it is not equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randalllynch Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Hopefully I'm reading you correctly is this what you want? Class--Sect Enries----Qualifiers----Placers-- 1A--999---27.97%--21----2.10%---5---0.50% 2A--1211--33.90%--62----5.12%--23---1.90% 3A--1362--38.13%--141--10.35%--84---6.17% Just a quick translation 2.1% of the 1A wrestlers that enter the tournament qualify for state. Class--Sect----Qualifiers----Placers-- 1A---999--27.97%---21---9.38%---5----4.46% 2A--1211--33.90%---62--27.68%--23---20.54% 3A--1362--38.13%--141--62.95%--84---75.00% Quick translation, 9.38% of the state qualifiers are from 1A, while they represent 27.97% of the entries. These numbers are pretty revealing. If a classed tournament is what the majority want perhaps the IHSWCA discussion with the IHSAA should be tied to the team and not the individual. If the average is roughly 9.9 wrestlers in the tournament for a 1A team and 13.6 for the 3A schools, the 3A school has a huge advantage for winning a sectional title. Taking for granted the talent is evenly dispersed as many on this discussion line believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rookies03 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Here is some of the Semi State data... For Semi State it comes out to 18.5% for 1A and 28.2% for 2A and 53.3% for 3A. I would imagine that the 1A % is even higher at Regional giving the conclusion that advancement is tougher for wrestlers at 1A schools. This would be consistent with the % dropping from state qualifiers to state placers to state champs Point #1 Im guessing a little of the disparity comes from uneven number of 1A, 2A and 3A schools at each sectional but the downward trend from 18.5% semi state qualifier, roughly 13% state qualifier, 8% state placer, 0% State champ indicates that the higher up you go the more difficult it is for 1A schools. This is all compared to 13% of total school population (You will never get me to buy-in to just looking at sectional entries). Point #2 All that being said... if you took identical twins and put 1 at Carroll and 1 at Churabusco I believe they have the same chance at being a state qualifier. Neither would have to "work harder" than the other. If they put in the same amount of work then they should both have the same chance at being a SQ. If you believe that point #1 is so unfair that we should give those kids more opportunities to reach the state by basically having 2 state tournaments then you are typically for class wrestling. If you believe point #2 that any kid has a shot as an individual in an individual sport then you are typically against class wrestling. Is either stance wrong? I don't think so... I think they are just different. We can talk about chickens and make belief varsity rosters or raw data but at the end of the day it comes down to a difference of opinion and not who is wrong or right. At least that is my opinion. Super_Fan and ugotstuck2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super_Fan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 From my experience with chickens if they are of the same breed they are all pretty equal. Plus, on top of that I design software to keep them alive and well fed, soooo let's do it! This is what you aren't seeing. You are showing me reasons for a class system. If I can tell you that 140-150 of the state qualifiers will be from group A and 20-30 from group B based on just one metric there is something wrong. We all understand that Carroll will have more state qualifiers than Prairie Heights. We know that because of the SIZE OF THE SCHOOL. The size of the school matters, we know that, we agree with that. However, you seem to miss the point being that a single class system is about everyone being equal. Single class system says no matter where you are from you have an equal opportunity to be a state qualifier/placer/champion. The statistics say that it is not equal. With this example though we are talking about a TEAM. We are not saying who would have the very fastest chicken out of all of them. Your smaller group could very well have the fastest chicken out of all of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The question with your #2 is this... The kid at Carroll gets to practice with more high level partners during the season. He sees a tougher schedule, he has more coaches to work with him. He also does one sport, because the ABC team doesn't need him. The Churubusco kid plays another sport because the ABC team could use a good runner/thrower/linebacker. Who succeeds more? Throw out the multi-sport part and who succeeds more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randalllynch Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) I am a little curious where the thought of everyone having an equal chance of winning a state title came from. My son was at a large school, but was at 152 this year, tough Evansville semi-state (3 state placers) and Forte among others if he got through Evansville. We had 6 quarter-finalist and a state qualifier on the team, trained hard, kept his body fat down all year, wrestled 13 top 10 ten opponents this year, he had everything in his favor to perform well this year but lost to Dunn who placed 4th in the go round (they had a tremendous match just before sectional). He had an equal opportunity, but we knew it was an uphill battle and he had to be on the top of his game. He went the weight that he was best at and best for the team as well, but we were under no delusion that he didn't need some breaks to get to the podium and a lot of good luck to get to the highest steps. But he trained hard for 4 years to take advantage of every opportunity he got, no regrets, it just didn't happen for him. Not a defeatist attitude or lack of confidence, but a reality the same as life, sometime life is hard and that is the thing about this sport, it molds young men to be more prepared for life. I do believe that classing the individual tournament will get more kids out, most kids want an opportunity to win, and by having more classes we could provide more opportunities. Edited March 5, 2015 by randalllynch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rookies03 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Personally I still think each twin has the same opportunity going to Carroll or Churabusco especialy if you take out multiple sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warsawwrestling Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The question with your #2 is this... The kid at Carroll gets to practice with more high level partners during the season. He sees a tougher schedule, he has more coaches to work with him. He also does one sport, because the ABC team doesn't need him. The Churubusco kid plays another sport because the ABC team could use a good runner/thrower/linebacker. Who succeeds more? Throw out the multi-sport part and who succeeds more? I'm going with the multi-sport kid. There is a lot of new data coming out about increased injuries with kids focusing on 1 sport. This is happening because of the same movement and stress on the same areas of the body!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swain358 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 (edited) Why not do it now? Why prove you can win an easier title first? Maybe that team can win a 3A title, but you'll never know if you don't move up now. When we prove that we can win/dominate the division we are in now we will move up. We are nowhere close to being the dominant team or even a consistent top team in our division. We have ALOT of work to do to get our program to that level. If we ever get there we would move up. Edited March 6, 2015 by swain358 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 So you changed it to now being a dominant team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winwithike Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Hopefully you can follow this, I added "JV" numbers. I put 1A at 1.3 so an average of 18 wrestlers on each team, 2A with 23, 3A with 30. I might be a little high, but who knows. Sect JV Percentage 1A-- 999--- 1300-- 20.63% 2A-- 1211-- 2000-- 31.75% 3A-- 1362-- 3000-- 47.62% ****Note I suck at math. If there are errors I apologize, they are unintentional.**** Thanks for the numbers, I hope I can follow it too. I personally think those numbers are a little bit low for 2a and 3a so I am going to bump them up a bit. 1a 1300 18.57% 41.6 2a 2200 31.43% 69.44 3a 3500 50% 112 Still skewed, but not as drastic. 7000 wrestlers statewide for 224 qualifiers giving every wrestler a 3.2% chance to qualify for state. If we become 3 classes that bumps qualifiers up to 672, which gives each wrestler a nearly 10% chance to qualify to state which seems insanely high to me. On top of that, it would give a 1a wrestler a 17.23% chance to qualify for state which seems watered down to me, a 10% chance for a 2a wrestler, and a 6% chance for a 3a wrestler. Classing with those numbers makes a random 1a wrestler almost 3x as likely to qualify for state than a 3a wrestler based solely on nothing except school size which hardly seems fair. I know you prefer 2 classes instead of 3, and admittedly on paper if every wrestler is created equal then this would give every wrestler an equal shot. These numbers conveniently show half of all wrestlers coming from 3a, so if we were to use two classes as an example instead of 3, the best place to split it up would be 1a and 2a combined into one class and 3a in another. This would set the number of qualifiers at 448 with 3500 wrestlers per class, or 6.4% chance per wrestler. This does succeed in giving every wrestler an equal chance on paper. The problem with this is there is 0 chance the ihsaa would allow the classification to be determined by the number of total wrestlers. Using varsity only is unfair to the thousands excluded, and in regards to population it is already pretty accurate with 13% of the population coming from smaller schools accounted for 13% of the qualifiers, so I see need to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chambers Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Personally I still think each twin has the same opportunity going to Carroll or Churabusco especialy if you take out multiple sports. How about if those twins each are heavyweights who are 285 pounds. Twin #1 at the big school has 2 other guys over 250lbs to practice with. Twin #2 at the little school has a guy who wrestles 220 but only weighs 188lbs. The next biggest guy he has to practice with weighs under 180lbs. Do you still think they have the same chance to get to state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fearless fly Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I'll use the real numbers for you Approximately 300,000 students in Indiana, that means 1 out of 20,000 are state champs. There are just under 40,000 students in 1A...yet ZERO champs, there are just over 70,000 in 2A, one champ. Last year we still had zero 1A champs, luckily we had 4 2A champs and 10 3A. In 2013, we had 1 1A champ, WAHOOO finally a 1A champ when we should have 2 a year. Something's wrong here, because if your calculations are right these schools are not getting the champs they should be getting. yawn....i tire of your 3 class numbers for a 2 class argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 yawn....i tire of your 3 class numbers for a 2 class argument.Yawn I tire of you adding nothing to this topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fearless fly Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Yawn I tire of you adding nothing to this topic how can i when your numbers are not pertinent to the argument ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 how can i when your numbers are not pertinent to the argument ? Then post pertinent numbers, I gave you the spreadsheet. Show me all your knowledge on how you want to have small schools to continue to struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 ****Note I suck at math. If there are errors I apologize, they are unintentional.**** Thanks for the numbers, I hope I can follow it too. I personally think those numbers are a little bit low for 2a and 3a so I am going to bump them up a bit. 1a 1300 18.57% 41.6 2a 2200 31.43% 69.44 3a 3500 50% 112 Still skewed, but not as drastic. 7000 wrestlers statewide for 224 qualifiers giving every wrestler a 3.2% chance to qualify for state. If we become 3 classes that bumps qualifiers up to 672, which gives each wrestler a nearly 10% chance to qualify to state which seems insanely high to me. On top of that, it would give a 1a wrestler a 17.23% chance to qualify for state which seems watered down to me, a 10% chance for a 2a wrestler, and a 6% chance for a 3a wrestler. Classing with those numbers makes a random 1a wrestler almost 3x as likely to qualify for state than a 3a wrestler based solely on nothing except school size which hardly seems fair. I know you prefer 2 classes instead of 3, and admittedly on paper if every wrestler is created equal then this would give every wrestler an equal shot. These numbers conveniently show half of all wrestlers coming from 3a, so if we were to use two classes as an example instead of 3, the best place to split it up would be 1a and 2a combined into one class and 3a in another. This would set the number of qualifiers at 448 with 3500 wrestlers per class, or 6.4% chance per wrestler. This does succeed in giving every wrestler an equal chance on paper. The problem with this is there is 0 chance the ihsaa would allow the classification to be determined by the number of total wrestlers. Using varsity only is unfair to the thousands excluded, and in regards to population it is already pretty accurate with 13% of the population coming from smaller schools accounted for 13% of the qualifiers, so I see need to change. The NFHS participation stats show Indiana had 7500 wrestlers last year, so we both may be a little low. I definitely would not be opposed to a 1A/2A class and a 3A class, but like you said it would be tough to get through the IHSAA. There are quite a few states that do something similar in combining classes. Based on two even classes this is probably what we see Class---Wrestlers-------Qual--- 1A---2400---35.29%----46---20.54% 2A---4400---64.71%---178---79.46% Again, an even greater disparity. To me this is a BIG problem in a one class environment, to others this is how it should be. I cannot fathom telling kids, well "you aren't supposed to make it to state because you're from a small school." I'm going with the multi-sport kid. There is a lot of new data coming out about increased injuries with kids focusing on 1 sport. This is happening because of the same movement and stress on the same areas of the body!!!!!! Well guess what? I actually have twins at Carroll right now. One is wrestling only, the other does cross country and track also. I believe the one that did cross country lettered this year on a top 10 team, so he's a good athlete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warsawwrestling Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Great article about injury and sports......multi-sports vs. individualizing in 1 sport http://sports.yahoo.com/news/three-benefits-being-young-multi-173014244.html;_ylt=A0LEV016u_lUL2cATopXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzcXNudGdhBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM1BHZ0aWQDVklQNTY0XzEEc2VjA3Ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Great article about injury and sports......multi-sports vs. individualizing in 1 sport http://sports.yahoo.com/news/three-benefits-being-young-multi-173014244.html;_ylt=A0LEV016u_lUL2cATopXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzcXNudGdhBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM1BHZ0aWQDVklQNTY0XzEEc2VjA3Ny That's nothing new, nor is it earth shattering. From what I have seen at Carroll is kids usually start to specialize as freshmen or sophomores when they realize they need to put in more time just to be varsity in one sport instead of half time to be JV in two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KarlHungus Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Great article about injury and sports......multi-sports vs. individualizing in 1 sport http://sports.yahoo.com/news/three-benefits-being-young-multi-173014244.html;_ylt=A0LEV016u_lUL2cATopXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzcXNudGdhBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM1BHZ0aWQDVklQNTY0XzEEc2VjA3Ny Yet in Indiana our state association sponsors a tournament that demands year round commitment as early as possible to compete at the state level. Illogical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warsawwrestling Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Wrestling numbers down? Total Male Participation Year Male Wrestlers Male Teams Avg per Teams 1970 226,681 6870 33.00 1972 265,039 7587 34.93 1974 319,048 9130 34.95 1976 355,160 9772 36.34 1977 355,160 9772 36.34 1978 338,328 9653 35.05 1979 281,704 8683 32.44 1980 273,326 8751 31.23 1981 245,026 8512 28.79 1982 256,107 8869 28.88 1983 254,581 8272 30.78 1984 248,300 8273 30.01 1985 244,598 8722 28.04 1986 247,653 8724 28.39 1987 251,281 8426 29.82 1988 246,771 8358 29.53 1989 242,064 8839 27.39 1990 233,856 8416 27.79 1991 230,673 8404 27.45 1992 229,908 8392 27.40 1993 222,025 8438 26.31 1994 223,433 8538 26.17 1995 216,453 8559 25.29 1996 221,162 8677 25.49 1997 227,596 8738 26.05 1998 229,176 8900 25.75 1999 235,973 9022 26.16 2000 239,105 9046 26.43 2001 244,984 9404 26.05 2002 244,637 9578 25.54 2003 239,845 9543 25.13 2004 238,700 9526 25.06 2005 243,009 9562 25.41 2006 251,534 9744 25.81 2007 257,346 9445 27.25 2008 259,688 10,090 25.74 2009 267,378 10,311 25.93 2010 272,890 10,363 26.33 2011 273,732 10,407 26.30 2012 272,149 10,407 26.15 2013 270,163 10,488 25.76 2014 269,514 10,688 25.22 DATA PROVIDED BY NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL FEDERATION OF ASSOCIATIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warsawwrestling Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 You ask why I am not in favor of classing........My answer is that we have what most do not have. We have a system that finds the best of the best. We have a product that we can brand, not only to colleges but to kids. Wrestling is one of those sports that teaches you get what you put forth. If you don't get what you want, you push yourself harder if you want more. Is there a benefit to being at a larger school? Maybe, if a program is set up and tons other reasons that have been stated. A larger size of school might impact numbers and quality to the good, but they can also hurt those numbers. To me the fight isn't class wrestling but on how to improve the wrestling in Indiana to stay in that top 10 and improve toward the state with the best wrestling. Growth starts at the little kid level by introducing as many little kids to wrestling as possible. Envisioning Elite Status: The Foundation for Legendary Brandinghttp://www.nwcaonline.com/nwcawebsite/Blog/marketing-mayhem/2012/12/03/envisioning-elite-status-the-foundation-for-legendary-branding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2CJ41 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 You ask why I am not in favor of classing........My answer is that we have what most do not have. We have a system that finds the best of the best. We have a product that we can brand, not only to colleges but to kids. Colleges don't care if it's a one class or multi-class tournament. Our "brand" hurts our kid's chances of getting looked at by colleges. Our "brand" hurts kids more than having a stupid spotlight helps it. Wrestling is one of those sports that teaches you get what you put forth. If you don't get what you want, you push yourself harder if you want more. This doesn't change in Ohio, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, or any state class or no class. Bad argument. Is there a benefit to being at a larger school? Maybe, if a program is set up and tons other reasons that have been stated. A larger size of school might impact numbers and quality to the good, but they can also hurt those numbers. We have statistics to prove that being at a larger school is beneficial. No maybe about this. To me the fight isn't class wrestling but on how to improve the wrestling in Indiana to stay in that top 10 and improve toward the state with the best wrestling. Growth starts at the little kid level by introducing as many little kids to wrestling as possible. Envisioning Elite Status: The Foundation for Legendary Branding http://www.nwcaonline.com/nwcawebsite/Blog/marketing-mayhem/2012/12/03/envisioning-elite-status-the-foundation-for-legendary-branding Our state has a very well organized and healthy youth structure. What separates us from other states is our depth of quality wrestlers. One great way is to get more kids to put more time into the offseason. I was talking to a young lad last night and he was talking how half his team's varsity wrestlers won't put time in the offseason. The reason is they know they already have a varsity spot locked up for next year, so they work on football or track or go play kissy face with a girl. However, at another school I've seen 10 of our returning starters putting time in already. By the way I'll ask Coyte in a couple weeks what he thinks of class wrestling and our "brand." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warsawwrestling Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Colleges don't care if it's a one class or multi-class tournament. Our "brand" hurts our kid's chances of getting looked at by colleges. Our "brand" hurts kids more than having a stupid spotlight helps it. Not all kids go to college and a high school experience might be the highlight in their life and that silly spotlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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