winwithike

****Note I suck at math. If there are errors I apologize, they are unintentional.**** Thanks for the numbers, I hope I can follow it too. I personally think those numbers are a little bit low for 2a and 3a so I am going to bump them up a bit. 1a 1300 18.57% 41.6 2a 2200 31.43% 69.44 3a 3500 50% 112 Still skewed, but not as drastic. 7000 wrestlers statewide for 224 qualifiers giving every wrestler a 3.2% chance to qualify for state. If we become 3 classes that bumps qualifiers up to 672, which gives each wrestler a nearly 10% chance to qualify to state which seems insanely high to me. On top of that, it would give a 1a wrestler a 17.23% chance to qualify for state which seems watered down to me, a 10% chance for a 2a wrestler, and a 6% chance for a 3a wrestler. Classing with those numbers makes a random 1a wrestler almost 3x as likely to qualify for state than a 3a wrestler based solely on nothing except school size which hardly seems fair. I know you prefer 2 classes instead of 3, and admittedly on paper if every wrestler is created equal then this would give every wrestler an equal shot. These numbers conveniently show half of all wrestlers coming from 3a, so if we were to use two classes as an example instead of 3, the best place to split it up would be 1a and 2a combined into one class and 3a in another. This would set the number of qualifiers at 448 with 3500 wrestlers per class, or 6.4% chance per wrestler. This does succeed in giving every wrestler an equal chance on paper. The problem with this is there is 0 chance the ihsaa would allow the classification to be determined by the number of total wrestlers. Using varsity only is unfair to the thousands excluded, and in regards to population it is already pretty accurate with 13% of the population coming from smaller schools accounted for 13% of the qualifiers, so I see need to change.

Accounting for every wrestler and not just varsity, they are closer than they would be if wrestling were classed.

Big schools and small schools VARSITY aren't equal. Big schools and small schools WRESTLERS are. Big schools and small schools varsity shouldn't be equal, but that doesn't mean it should be classed. If it was classed a wrestler from a smaller school would have a significantly easier chance to win state than a wrestler from a bigger school

Just because a JV wrestler lost a challenge before the tourney began doesn't mean he had 0% chance to make it to state. Comparing only the 14 varsity on each team says exactly that. You have to compare every wrestler because every wrestler has a chance. Saying the 14 out of 80 and the 14 out of 20 aren't equal isn't an argument for classing the tourney because although the 14 and 14 aren't equal, the 100 individually all have an equal chance.

Narrowing it down to just varsity wrestlers is your problem. JV guys count too. The journey doesn't start at sectionals, it starts back in October when practices start. Everyone that makes varsity and gets to enter the tourney has beaten out everyone else in their weight class at their school. At the beginning of the season everyone that wrestles has an equal chance at making it to state, varsity or JV or whatever. By comparing only varsity you are eliminating a huge percentage of wrestlers and saying they don't matter and thats not fair. Wrestlers at a bigger school likely have a tougher journey before sectionals start and that shouldn't be discredited. If a guy has to beat out 4 others just to make varsity, he is likely better than a guy who only had to beat out one other and in turn has a better chance to advance, that's basic math. But the comparison shouldn't be between the two, but rather the 7

I don't necessarily agree that those two kids would have a greater chance to qualify at a bigger school. A bigger school with those advantages more than likely also has a MUCH more difficult path for a wrestler to even make varsity. A tough room with stiff competition may make a wrestler better, but by no means makes the path easier. That's one of the reasons big schools have more qualifiers than smaller schools, because in general a big school varsity wrestler has had to defeat numerous quality wrestlers to even make varsity. We see the state number breakdown by potential classes, but those are comparing varsity numbers only which doesn't tell the whole story. Comparing all wrestlers including JV would show a much clearer picture. If a wrestler has already beaten 4 wrestlers to just make varsity, he should have a better chance to advance than a wrestler who didn't have as hard of a path to a varsity spot. A small school wrestler shouldn't be compared to his big school wrestler counterpart, he should be compared to all of the wrestlers at that weight from that big school