Genius Ratings are HERE!

[Y2CJ41]

Check them out

http://www.indianamat.com/genius-ratings-1202014/2014/01/

[decbell1]

Top 5 Teams not invited to Team State Duals

 

1A

#1 Oak Hill

#3 North White

#4 Lewis Cass

 

2A

#3 Evansville Memorial

#5 Bellmont

 

3A

#5 Carmel

 

[maligned]

Top 5 Teams not invited to Team State Duals

 

1A

#1 Oak Hill

#3 North White

#4 Lewis Cass

 

2A

#3 Evansville Memorial

#5 Bellmont

 

3A

#5 Carmel

 

Some notes:

 

1A:

Oak Hill were not classified as 1A for this year's event, although they most likely will be this year when classifications are released sometime before sectional.

North White didn't score enough points to auto-qualify or to be considered. 

Lewis Cass was outvoted by Churubusco and West Central.

 

2A:

Evansville Memorial was outvoted by North Montgomery and New Prairie. 

Bellmont did not score enough points to auto-qualify or to be considered.

 

3A:

Carmel did not score enough points to auto-qualify or to be considered.

 

 

[maligned]

There are often questions about the ratings like, "how is team A rated below team B, when team A beat team B last week?"

 

The answer is that ALL of your results are considered simultaneously and connected with all other teams and results in the state.  So, for example, EMD just beat Penn and Franklin beat EMD.  But Genius put Penn #1 (106.71), EMD #2 (105.97), and Franklin #3 (105.57).  It just means that the system thinks that over time, considering all possible statewide matchups, Penn would end up winning duals by about one point higher than the other two.  For example, if Penn and Franklin wrestled all the top 50 teams, Genius thinks Penn will win by an average of 49-13, while Franklin will only win 48-13.  In other words, they (along with EMD and Perry) are virtually identical.

[RAJR]

Been waiting to see them!  Thanks for all the time and effort that go into these ratings! 

[PURDUEdad]

Absolutely not a complaint (just trying to understand how this works a little better) . . .

 

I would think that Franklin's strength of schedule would be higher than it is. They defeated 7 teams who were in the top 10 when they wrestled (Mater Dei, Perry, Yorktown, Warren, Portage, Crown Point and Cathedral) along with a dual coming up (which I realize wasn't counted) against an 8th team, New Pal (also in the top 10), in addition to the Mater Dei Holiday Classic.

 

Again, not questioning your results, just interested in how all of that factors in to their strength of schedule ranking.

 

Thanks for your response and your efforts.

 

 

[maligned]

Absolutely not a complaint (just trying to understand how this works a little better) . . .

 

I would think that Franklin's strength of schedule would be higher than it is. They defeated 7 teams who were in the top 10 when they wrestled (Mater Dei, Perry, Yorktown, Warren, Portage, Crown Point and Cathedral) along with a dual coming up (which I realize wasn't counted) against an 8th team, New Pal (also in the top 10), in addition to the Mater Dei Holiday Classic.

 

Again, not questioning your results, just interested in how all of that factors in to their strength of schedule ranking.

 

Thanks for your response and your efforts.

 

No problem...it's a composite of the entire schedule--not just the top teams.  In other words, you may wrestle the top 5 teams in the state and then wrestle the bottom 5 teams in the state.  The end result is that you would have only a so-so SOS.  Franklin's 57.5 (a very high SOS, ranked #11) means that their most normal opponent has a rating of about that 57.5 level.

[PURDUEdad]

No problem...it's a composite of the entire schedule--not just the top teams.  In other words, you may wrestle the top 5 teams in the state and then wrestle the bottom 5 teams in the state.  The end result is that you would have only a so-so SOS.  Franklin's 57.5 (a very high SOS, ranked #11) means that their most normal opponent has a rating of about that 57.5 level.

 

Thank you, and thank you especially for stating your response in layman's terms. Had you even MENTIONED the word "derivative", my eyes would have crossed . . . 

[JakeandBreighton]

Some notes:

 

1A:

Oak Hill were not classified as 1A for this year's event, although they most likely will be this year when classifications are released sometime before sectional.

Does us no good next year, when this team was our best team, and have every single kid back! Won't have that luxury this year.

[maligned]

Does us no good next year, when this team was our best team, and have every single kid back! Won't have that luxury this year.

 

JakeandBreighton,

I feel bad that things have unfolded in a confusing way. But the bottom line is this: you were correctly in 2A.  Let me explain why things became confusing:

 

1. I posted the final scores according to new classification data last year without having calculated scores of some teams at the bottom of the standings (and therefore didn't switch them to their new classes on the list I quickly posted).  I stated this at the top of my post, but I understand why it was overlooked.  I also detailed exactly which teams were switching classes later in the same thread, but anyway, I left it as confusing and didn't come back later to finalize all scores as I should have.

 

2. Last year's team total has been miscalculated more than once because of one sectional (New Haven) having a wrongly-written number of teams (9 rather than 10) listed as its total in 12-13 IHSAA sectional information.  There were in fact 312 teams entered in last year's individual tournament--not 311 as some have thought erroneously. 

 

3. There was some thought that maybe the IHSAA changed its enrollment numbers from the original press release due to the discovery of Roncalli's changed total and due to a newly added non-wrestling school on the current IHSAA online list.  In fact the Roncalli change was the ONLY change.  I'm not sure when it was changed, but they should have been 3A and Northview should have been 2A.  No one else was affected.  (The only reason it seems like there were a handful of errors in my list is because of reason #1 above.  I had the same data as the IHSAA and this site all along.)

 

Here is the link to the IHSAA's current list, which is exactly the same as the one they sent out last year, except for the addition of Gary Lighthouse and the aforementioned Roncalli enrollment adjustment.  Here is the breakdown then:

 

http://www.ihsaa.org/Portals/0/ihsaa/documents/quick%20resources/Boys%27%20Basketball%20Classifications%202013-15.pdf

 

3A is the first 103 schools listed, plus Evansville Mater Dei--(104 total)

2A is made up of schools 104 (Columbia City) to 214 (Oak Hill)--(111 minus 7 non-wrestling schools equals 104 total)

1A is made up of the remaining schools that were entered in sectional in 2012-13 from 215 and higher (104 total)

 

Lastly, I should tell you that unless something changes in the coming week with sectional entrants, you will continue to be 2A for next year's event.  As things stand now, Gary Wallace is out and Lafayette Central Catholic is in.  That means subtracting a 2A team and adding a 1A team.  North Posey will then bump to 2A to even things out.  Roncalli would be 3A and Northview 2A, as stated above, unless a last-minute change is announced (which has happened before). 

 

I hope this helps, and again, I'm sorry I didn't/couldn't make things clearer sooner.  I'm also sorry that I gave the impression you would most likely be back to 1A.  I wasn't sure until I could do a bit more back research into all the unexpected reasons the waters got muddied.

 

SEE "OAK HILL" THREAD FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON THIS ISSUE 

[Smooth34]

Top 5 Teams not invited to Team State Duals

 

1A

#1 Oak Hill

#3 North White

#4 Lewis Cass

 

2A

#3 Evansville Memorial

#5 Bellmont

 

3A

#5 Carmel

 

Which is why the Ihswca duals crown a fictional team state champion. Unfortunately the only one that matters is the one recognized by the Ihsaa. They can't seem to nail down who the best teams are in 2a and 1a (even some deserving 3a teams turned it down). They also can't seem to properly classify?

 

We all agree Yorktown still wins 2a, but that shouldn't prevent us from getting the best teams there.

[Y2CJ41]

Which is why the Ihswca duals crown a fictional team state champion. Unfortunately the only one that matters is the one recognized by the Ihsaa. They can't seem to nail down who the best teams are in 2a and 1a (even some deserving 3a teams turned it down). They also can't seem to properly classify?

 

We all agree Yorktown still wins 2a, but that shouldn't prevent us from getting the best teams there.

Do you have a crystal ball that you would be able to loan to the IHSWCA in February?

[maligned]

Which is why the Ihswca duals crown a fictional team state champion. Unfortunately the only one that matters is the one recognized by the Ihsaa. They can't seem to nail down who the best teams are in 2a and 1a (even some deserving 3a teams turned it down). They also can't seem to properly classify?

 

We all agree Yorktown still wins 2a, but that shouldn't prevent us from getting the best teams there.

 

48 out of 51 bids given out have been accepted.  And those 3 rejections were from two total teams--one of which has a unique longstanding tradition of not wrestling at all over the holidays.  It means something to someone.  Teams are carefully tracking their scores and intentionally trying to score every team point possible in January and February to earn a position.

 

FYI: If we had an all-in, same-season geographic tournament with absolutely zero upsets, only 12 of the 3 classes' top 6 Genius teams would have made it (12 of 18).  As it is, we had an all-in tournament and got 13 of those 18 teams--the worst performance this system has produced the three years we've examined everything.  Again, I will never say any of us loves this system, but it's far, far better than nothing.