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maligned

Team State Bid Acceptance List

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20 minutes ago, maligned said:

Do this:

1. Take a given team you think is overrated or underrated in these ratings and add up their plus/minus from every single dual meet for the year. Then, add in their plus/minus for every single opponent faced in tournaments for the year (but only take 40% of that tournament final total because we only value individual tournament results that much).

2. Go to the ratings and add up the plus/minus between the ratings for every single team they faced for the season in the same way you did for the real scores in instruction #1.

The results of these two calculations will be identical in every case for every team in the state. They are all perfectly slotted according to their real-life results for the whole season--not according to one or two cherry-picked results or theoretical results. 

If you want to argue that a particular team was missing some guys for 3 weeks or that certain teams' ratings are padded by weaker schedules or other things--there are certainly some cases like that, I'm sure. But the ratings reflect one thing and one thing only: full-season results for everyone with zero guesses or biases included in any way.

Maligned,  One thing add  is you had more dual results data to work with this year then prior years to include in the genius ratings which gives you more accurate numbers.   Also,  you're work is awesome and I don't know  of other states that have genius ratings.  I saw once Ohio had an index rating like this. 

Also,   I think genius ratings are unbiased and very close to real,   but I do think a couple teams get overrated maybe  by 10 or so points,  I wont name names.  We've talked about the reason why before, where  a team gets a weaker schedule and when they run up the  score against some inferior teams the can inflate their score a little bit.

I was reading your genius calculation information you posted earlier in the year,  and I saw that the your genius method is used by NCAA football and used by bookees in Vegas.   But one modification they made because of the blowout situation which are similar to wrestling, was to cap the win spread.  They used 50 points as the ceiling.   In other words, if  like Ohio State blew out Kansas by  a score of  77-0,  they would only get 50 point credit in their genius rating.      So what if we made a modification like a 65 point max spread for the genius calculation.   So for example, when a team wins 84-0,  they get an 84 spread in your calc.   In the genius, they would get a 65-0 score credit.

What do you think?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Thor said:

I know that this is a solid formula, and there has to be a way to calculate this, but I still don't see how a team like Marion has a higher genius rating than Bellmont. Peru has three teams with negative ratings, yet they somehow get a 4. And their top teams have a very high score, but I don't see why they are that high compared to a Bellmont or AC

I saw your post on Marion and Bellmont comparison.  Interesting comparison with a big team with weak schedule vs smaller with strong schedule.   Take a closer look,  and the  genius is plausible and does take bias out.    Heres the tail of the tape below.

 

 Marion - Genius 53.46  record  20-2  and SOS =205

Bellmont - Genius 52.96 record 12-11 and SOS 13

common opponent- 

Wawasee  49- Marion 28

Wasasee 49- Bellmont 25

Too bad they didn't have more common opponents,  but in alignment with the Genius rating,   Marion was slightly better than Bellmont against same opponent.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Wrestling Scholar said:

I saw your post on Marion and Bellmont comparison.  Interesting comparison with a big team with weak schedule vs smaller with strong schedule.   Take a closer look,  and the  genius is plausible and does take bias out.    Heres the tail of the tape below.

 

 Marion - Genius 53.46  record  20-2  and SOS =205

Bellmont - Genius 52.96 record 12-11 and SOS 13

common opponent- 

Wawasee  49- Marion 28

Wasasee 49- Bellmont 25

Too bad they didn't have more common opponents,  but in alignment with the Genius rating,   Marion was slightly better than Bellmont against same opponent.

 

 

That’s a very good example to vouch for the genius rankings, but also how you can show discrepancies due to lineups. Against Marion, Wawasee gave up two forfeits and against Bellmont, Bellmont was without two time ticket rounder Caden Friedt. But that’s what tough when doing it statistically and unbiased, can’t go through every match like that 

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Couple examples of the Carroll regional vs. Jay County

Carroll and Garrett both had 7 semi-state qualifiers
Jay County had 8 and Bellmont 6

Carroll defeated Bellmont 52-19
Carroll defeated Jay County 50-16(without a state qualifier)
Garrett defeated Jay County 60-18

Three pretty convincing wins, yet they were virtually equal in terms of semi-state qualifiers. 

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50 minutes ago, Thor said:

That’s a very good example to vouch for the genius rankings, but also how you can show discrepancies due to lineups. Against Marion, Wawasee gave up two forfeits and against Bellmont, Bellmont was without two time ticket rounder Caden Friedt. But that’s what tough when doing it statistically and unbiased, can’t go through every match like that 

Bellmont also had their heavyweight who didn't wrestle in the state series.

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Re: Genius Rating - not a chance Cathedral had the 16th toughest schedule. If we aren’t at least Top 5, I want to see the schedules of the people ahead of us. 

How in the world is strength of schedule  decided? 

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7 minutes ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

Re: Genius Rating - not a chance Cathedral had the 16th toughest schedule. If we aren’t at least Top 5, I want to see the schedules of the people ahead of us. 

How in the world is strength of schedule  decided? 

Since tournaments are technically calculated in as duals against every team in the event, I would guess the City Tournament was a big factor in the SOS being "low." There were some teams from the city tournament that had negative genius ratings.

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If that is the case, that is a major flaw in the Genius System. There are 9 teams I counted in the Indianapolis City Tourney with negative ratings (the majority with double digit negative ratings). A tournament that we are obligated to attend can offset most likely the toughest schedule in the state? No wonder Cathedral didn’t get invited to the IHSWCA State Duals two years ago. If you want a fair representation, there needs to be a different rating system for tournaments. Are all 32 teams in the Al Smith figured in to the rating? Are all 32 Al Smith Teams figured the same as all 16 teams at the Traicoff Duals? How about out of state tourneys? Cathedral went to a pretty tough Mason, OH tourney. Portage and Avon went to a tough Ohio tourney. How were those tourneys figured In?? Trying to figure out a solution to this SoS rating. I don’t feel like CHS is getting a fair shake. 

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1 hour ago, Thor said:

That’s a very good example to vouch for the genius rankings, but also how you can show discrepancies due to lineups. Against Marion, Wawasee gave up two forfeits and against Bellmont, Bellmont was without two time ticket rounder Caden Friedt. But that’s what tough when doing it statistically and unbiased, can’t go through every match like that 

Keep in mind the genius ratings are averaging 24 matches for Marion and 23 for Bellmont.  Your example is just one match with a wrestler or two out.   Its probably fair to say at moments throughout the season, Marion had wrestlers out of lineup or Bellmont wrestled some teams not at full strength.  Also, did Bellmont have a decent backup at those weights with wrestlers out.   Genius is also measuring depth of lineups.    According to the Genius, the two teams from a dual perspective are very close and would be a close dual.Ill 

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11 minutes ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

If that is the case, that is a major flaw in the Genius System. There are 9 teams I counted in the Indianapolis City Tourney with negative ratings (the majority with double digit negative ratings). A tournament that we are obligated to attend can offset most likely the toughest schedule in the state? No wonder Cathedral didn’t get invited to the IHSWCA State Duals two years ago. If you want a fair representation, there needs to be a different rating system for tournaments. Are all 32 teams in the Al Smith figured in to the rating? Are all 32 Al Smith Teams figured the same as all 16 teams at the Traicoff Duals? How about out of state tourneys? Cathedral went to a pretty tough Mason, OH tourney. Portage and Avon went to a tough Ohio tourney. How were those tourneys figured In?? Trying to figure out a solution to this SoS rating. I don’t feel like CHS is getting a fair shake. 

I'm not sure the Mason tournament was reported on here, thus it wasn't figured in.

The Traicoff is duals, so only your duals are calculated.
The Al Smith is figured as a dual the other 31 teams.

Having the 16th best SoS is pretty darn good, that's the 16th toughest schedule out of 300+ teams. 

Like I said, you take out the City Tournament and you are probably a top 5 schedule. Other team's SoS is affected by mandatory duals against weaker conference opponents, Cathedral isn't the only one affected.

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36 minutes ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

Re: Genius Rating - not a chance Cathedral had the 16th toughest schedule. If we aren’t at least Top 5, I want to see the schedules of the people ahead of us. 

How in the world is strength of schedule  decided? 

I bet if Cathedral went to team state, then their strength of schedule would've been higher.....

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36 minutes ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

Re: Genius Rating - not a chance Cathedral had the 16th toughest schedule. If we aren’t at least Top 5, I want to see the schedules of the people ahead of us. 

How in the world is strength of schedule  decided? 

You could actually look that up .  Check the team pages for the 15 teams with stronger SOS, as it lists all the duals that got included in the genius.

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3 minutes ago, Wrestling Scholar said:

You could actually look that up .  Check the team pages for the 15 teams with stronger SOS, as it lists all the duals that got included in the genius.

I don’t have to. There aren’t 5 other teams that competed against 8 of the Top 10 teams in the state this season. 

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3 minutes ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

I don’t have to. There aren’t 5 other teams that competed against 8 of the Top 10 teams in the state this season. 

Which of those teams wrestled with top 20 SoS ranking wrestled 9 teams with negative Genius ratings?

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10 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Which of those teams wrestled with top 20 SoS ranking wrestled 9 teams with negative Genius ratings?

Zero. 5 of those teams had less than 5 wrestlers on their roster. We would have been better off if they just cancelled the tournament. However, that is the conference we are in and contractually obligated to. We can’t shed a conference for just wrestling. 

How many Top 20 SoS teams have a conference with 2 or more teams with negative Genius Ratings in it? I bet none. We have 9 and we only see them one time - the Indianapolis City Tourney. It is basically our team philanthropy. 

The point is the system needs amendment around tournament ratings. 

Edited by IndianaWrestlingGuy

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21 minutes ago, WOC said:

I bet if Cathedral went to team state, then their strength of schedule would've been higher.....

You’re right. Perhaps if the Genius Rating System didn’t penalize us for a horrific Indy City Tournament we are locked into two years ago, we would have had the invite then. 

It sure would have validated the 2018 “Team State” tournament to have the IHSAA Champs there, wouldn’t it have? 

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2 minutes ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

It sure would have validated the 2018 “Team State” tournament to have the IHSAA Champs there, wouldn’t it have? 

The Team State doesn't need further validation as it is accepted by the Coaches Association..... However it would be more complete with all of the best teams accepting bids. And it would be much better if Cathedral could dump the city tournament to attend the Team State tournament, but understandably obligations are obligations.  Hopefully, Cathedral will find a way to accept those bids in the not too distant future.

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3 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Which of those teams wrestled with top 20 SoS ranking wrestled 9 teams with negative Genius ratings?

I looked at Cathedral team page and you only had 4 matches against teams in the dual top 10.  Maybe thats the disconnect.  Maybe you should look at ylur page.

 

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14 minutes ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

Zero. 5 of those teams had less than 5 wrestlers on their roster. We would have been better off if they just cancelled the tournament. However, that is the conference we are in and contractually obligated to. We can’t shed a conference for just wrestling. 

How many Top 20 SoS teams have a conference with 2 or more teams with negative Genius Ratings in it? I bet none. We have 9 and we only see them one time - the Indianapolis City Tourney. It is basically our team philanthropy. 

The point is the system needs amendment around tournament ratings. 

Then don't cry about a low SoS rating.... strength of schedule has to include all the matches. 

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5 minutes ago, WOC said:

The Team State doesn't need further validation as it is accepted by the Coaches Association..... However it would be more complete with all of the best teams accepting bids. And it would be much better if Cathedral could dump the city tournament to attend the Team State tournament, but understandably obligations are obligations.  Hopefully, Cathedral will find a way to accept those bids in the not too distant future.

Tournaments get less weight rhan duals.  City tournament had very little affect.

 

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8 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Why? Because it includes ALL matches?

Let’s change the scenario: Take the 32nd place team in the Al Smith: Princeton. I would wager that their attendance at the Al Smith alone vaults them to the 190th best SoS. However, the chance they might have one or two wrestlers face a top ranked Cathedral, Chesterton, or Columbus East kid are slim. 

Conversely, the chances a Cathedral wrestler faces any of the 3 Indianapolis Arlington or 4 Indy Broad Ripple High School wrestlers in the City Tourney are slim. Both Double digit negative ranked teams. 

My point is the weighting system for the individual tourneys need to be reconsidered in my opinion. Perhaps they are already considerably less weight, I don’t even know. If they aren’t, they should be less than teams scheduling duals with top ranked programs. And, not penalize good teams stuck in less than competitive conferences. 

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2 minutes ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

Let’s change the scenario: Take the 32nd place team in the Al Smith: Princeton. I would wager that their attendance at the Al Smith alone vaults them to the 190th best SoS. However, the chance they might have one or two wrestlers face a top ranked Cathedral, Chesterton, or Columbus East kid are slim. 

Conversely, the chances a Cathedral wrestler faces any of the 3 Indianapolis Arlington or 4 Indy Broad Ripple High School wrestlers in the City Tourney are slim. Both Double digit negative ranked teams. 

My point is the weighting system for the individual tourneys need to be reconsidered in my opinion. Perhaps they are already considerably less weight, I don’t even know. If they aren’t, they should be less than teams scheduling duals with top ranked programs. And, not penalize good teams stuck in less than competitive conferences. 

The points are adjusted so they are dual type scores. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but basically for City you divide the scores by about 4 to get Cathedral's score of about 70 points, then divide the other scores by 4 and get the "dual score." For the Al Smith it is a different number because more points are scored. It is basically as if you beat all the city teams 70 to very little, aka smoked them. The same goes for beating every team at the Al Smith by decent margins.

The Strength of Schedule is greatly affected by facing 9 very, very, very poor teams. I'm not sure you are accepting that part of your huge complaint.

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