Naturally confidence has a lot to do with your performance in any sport, actually in life in general so there is no debating Red would look better when he believes he will win.
I don't agree with your analysis that "Red has to also be thinking he has improved more than Lee since then because he has had more College Practices and matches" -- Lee has been in the Penn State room drilling with extremely talented wrestlers. Advantage Lee.
Their high school match was as even as you could get. Red won, but many had Lee winning the match after watching the replay and the back points awarded. I have watched Red 4x this year and he is not the same wrestler he was in high school. I hope he can string together a bunch of wins and make a run at AA; Lee is looking fantastic and is definitely in the mix for the final 8.