Ok, even though I like a good class wrestling debate as much as anyone, its way to early for that and its digressing from the topic. Im cutting that off.
Back to the topic, the advent of athletic transfers is nothing new in Indiana. Wrestling has seen its share over the years, and it hasn't destroyed it yet. At least not in the manner that Ed described. But the I think the game changer was open enrollment/ and school voucher law passed in 2013. As the hypothetical process described which is the the elimination of wrestling programs, seems somewhat feasible. I would say if you look at the big picture, you can see it in the elimination of Indiana schools. Look what it did to the Indianapolis school district. When enrollment became open, the better students left the weaker schools and went to the bigger schools. Next thing you know, 3 schools aren't cutting it any more and their doors are shut permanently. I think this will be a continuing trend in Indiana. And that's the way we will see the loss of more wrestling programs, due to school consolidation.
On the athletic side, the one factor not mentioned by Ed was the fact that the IHSAA is cracking down on transfers more than ever and punishing the transferees by not granting eligibility. I think this tactic has been somewhat successful already. Even though these complicated transfer rules deter transfers, the problem with them is the hypocrisy of them. By that I mean, the State government of Indiana encourages kids to transfer for a better arts program, a journalism program, a chess team, a robotics program, a better offering of classes or just because a school has a better academic environment. But on the flip side, its wrong to transfer because of wrestling, football or gymnastics. It doesn't make sense, because these athletics programs are just as much of the school academic environment as the other extra curricular activities mentioned earlier. And from a legal perspective, lawyers love to the fight that argument because the unfairness is very to prove and they normally win. Look at the IHSAA record on transfer lawsuits, they normally don't win and they also cost a lot of money in legal fees.
But looking at the current state of wrestling, we have over 300 programs which is good. Also, I think the IHSAA participation data was wrong. The forfeit numbers are real, and we're seeing less participation. But as described earlier, a lot of these programs are not so healthy with a only a handful of kids coming out. It has to be de-motivating for a kid and a coach to only have 4 or 5 kids participate. Also, lets be real, there's currently less than 10 schools that can win the state title in any given year and those are almost always the same 10 teams. Albeit through great home grown coaching or some kind of migration of talent through transfers, the best teams normally find a way to stay on top.
So where's it going. What's it going to be like in 30 years when Ed's grandson or grand daughter is dominating the wrestling scene. I think well have less wrestling programs (see school consolidation), but we still will have well over 200 programs and those programs will be much fuller than we have now. So here's the question: would it be better to have less programs than currently, but say most of these programs can actually field full teams, instead of the current situation where half the programs in the state are riddled with forfeits?