Who will be our 2.3 annual D1 AAs and 11.3 annual smaller-division AAs this year?

[maligned]

Across the last 10 actually wrestled D1 tournaments we've gotten 23 All-Americans.  And we've seen 113 All-Americans from the last 10 actually wrestled D2, D3, NAIA, NJCAA tournaments.

 

That's 2.3 D1 and 11.3 smaller-division All-Americans per year. 

 

Who get these men's spots for us this year? 

 

I follow D1 much more than the others, so it's the one I know. Trying to see things objectively, I think only 2 AAs is the most likely scenario this year.

 

How I'd categorize our Indiana high school grads' AA chances:

 

Likely:

Mendez--He is in an always-deep 141, but he would need to lose a couple of significant upsets not to medal. He's one of 2 (maybe 3) clear gold medal contenders.

Davison--Heavyweight, contrary to high school, tends to be fairly predictable with obvious tiers. Davison seems headed for about a #6 seed, and him winning above his seed or losing below his seed outside of about 3 to 8 is unlikely.

 

Small chance:

Allred--His ranking suggests he's in about the same position he was last year heading into Big 10s, where he emerged not only as an AA threat, but also a dark horse to take the whole thing. However, we haven't seen the same scoring savvy that he showed last year in any of his matches against top competition this year. He's got a great shot to win a couple NCAA matches again, but he'll need to rekindle some things we haven't seen yet this year to make an AA run.

B-Lee--I love how hard this dude has worked to get back and to be ready to bang headed into Big 10s. He's capable of some interesting moments again. Sadly, though, he will need to rediscover one or two more helpings of that past prowess to make a run.

G-Rooks--He's come agonizingly close before, so I wouldn't count him out. Like last year, he needs a workable draw, and he needs to get hot. It's not probable--but not impossible. He's got a really similar mix of results to last year, and he seems headed for a similar seed.

 

Notable others:

DJ Washington--Not sure why he's struggled so much for a sustained period now, but I would have had him in the "small chance" category for sure early this season. He doesn't look like himself at all right now, so it's hard to imagine much post-season impact from him unless he recovers from whatever is ailing him very quickly.

Blake Boarman--Breakout year for Blake. He seems headed for an NCAA bid with a sparkling record of 17-4. But he wrestles a lesser schedule, so it's hard to get a handle on how much he might be able to do against top guys. I'm excited to follow him at SoCon's and beyond.

Gabe Sollars--Super fun pin artist that's had a couple tight ones with AA contenders. He hasn't quite broken through against the upper tier; but if he manages to get into the tournament, he could make some noise.

Brody Baumann--He's another one that needs to sneak into the tournament first, but that shows flashes of creating interesting upsets.

Evan Bates--He's solid. He beats who he should, but loses fairly clearly against the top 30. Getting into the tournament, which he could very likely do, would be a good result for him.

Connor Barket--Big strides forward, but he'll need a special performance at the ACC tournament to get into NCAAs.

Brodie Porter--Same as Barket...big strides, but likely a year or two away from big noise.

Nick Wilham--Admirable job jumping in at 285, but would also need a huge conference tournament.

 

Edited February 26 by maligned

[Disco]

I think this is a good analysis. Pretty much spot on. Nick ( Wilham) 

[maligned]

2 hours ago, Disco said:

I think this is a good analysis. Pretty much spot on. Nick ( Wilham) 

Auto-correct

[wrestlenewbie]

On 2/26/2024 at 10:24 AM, maligned said:

Across the last 10 actually wrestled D1 tournaments we've gotten 23 All-Americans.  And we've seen 113 All-Americans from the last 10 actually wrestled D2, D3, NAIA, NJCAA tournaments.

 

That's 2.3 D1 and 11.3 smaller-division All-Americans per year. 

 

Who get these men's spots for us this year? 

 

I follow D1 much more than the others, so it's the one I know. Trying to see things objectively, I think only 2 AAs is the most likely scenario this year.

 

How I'd categorize our Indiana high school grads' AA chances:

 

Likely:

Mendez--He is in an always-deep 141, but he would need to lose a couple of significant upsets not to medal. He's one of 2 (maybe 3) clear gold medal contenders.

Davison--Heavyweight, contrary to high school, tends to be fairly predictable with obvious tiers. Davison seems headed for about a #6 seed, and him winning above his seed or losing below his seed outside of about 3 to 8 is unlikely.

 

Small chance:

Allred--His ranking suggests he's in about the same position he was last year heading into Big 10s, where he emerged not only as an AA threat, but also a dark horse to take the whole thing. However, we haven't seen the same scoring savvy that he showed last year in any of his matches against top competition this year. He's got a great shot to win a couple NCAA matches again, but he'll need to rekindle some things we haven't seen yet this year to make an AA run.

B-Lee--I love how hard this dude has worked to get back and to be ready to bang headed into Big 10s. He's capable of some interesting moments again. Sadly, though, he will need to rediscover one or two more helpings of that past prowess to make a run.

G-Rooks--He's come agonizingly close before, so I wouldn't count him out. Like last year, he needs a workable draw, and he needs to get hot. It's not probable--but not impossible. He's got a really similar mix of results to last year, and he seems headed for a similar seed.

 

Notable others:

DJ Washington--Not sure why he's struggled so much for a sustained period now, but I would have had him in the "small chance" category for sure early this season. He doesn't look like himself at all right now, so it's hard to imagine much post-season impact from him unless he recovers from whatever is ailing him very quickly.

Blake Boarman--Breakout year for Blake. He seems headed for an NCAA bid with a sparkling record of 17-4. But he wrestles a lesser schedule, so it's hard to get a handle on how much he might be able to do against top guys. I'm excited to follow him at SoCon's and beyond.

Gabe Sollars--Super fun pin artist that's had a couple tight ones with AA contenders. He hasn't quite broken through against the upper tier; but if he manages to get into the tournament, he could make some noise.

Brody Baumann--He's another one that needs to sneak into the tournament first, but that shows flashes of creating interesting upsets.

Evan Bates--He's solid. He beats who he should, but loses fairly clearly against the top 30. Getting into the tournament, which he could very likely do, would be a good result for him.

Connor Barket--Big strides forward, but he'll need a special performance at the ACC tournament to get into NCAAs.

Brodie Porter--Same as Barket...big strides, but likely a year or two away from big noise.

Nick Wilham--Admirable job jumping in at 285, but would also need a huge conference tournament.

 

 

I have it at 2 AAs this year based on current Intermat rankings. Of course, anything they do to improve their seeds over their rankings at their conference tournaments will increase that total.

 

The far right column is the probability of AAing based on fitted results from 2010 - 2023.

 

[maligned]

2 hours ago, wrestlenewbie said:

 

I have it at 2 AAs this year based on current Intermat rankings. Of course, anything they do to improve their seeds over their rankings at their conference tournaments will increase that total.

 

The far right column is the probability of AAing based on fitted results from 2010 - 2023.

 

Based on the specific landscape of each weight class, I'd guess Mendez and Davison slightly higher than the regression spit out and Allred, Rooks, Lee a little lower. I'd also guess that Washington/Boarman/Baumann/Sollars would collectively earn more than 1 AA slot every one hundred years. 

[Disco]

6 hours ago, wrestlenewbie said:

 

I have it at 2 AAs this year based on current Intermat rankings. Of course, anything they do to improve their seeds over their rankings at their conference tournaments will increase that total.

 

The far right column is the probability of AAing based on fitted results from 2010 - 2023.

 

With out this data, which I think is right, watching these guys almost all season I could conclude the same. The (eye test). But the fun is seeing how it plays out for these men. Bout to bout from here on out to elimination. 

[wrestlenewbie]

5 hours ago, maligned said:

Based on the specific landscape of each weight class, I'd guess Mendez and Davison slightly higher than the regression spit out and Allred, Rooks, Lee a little lower. I'd also guess that Washington/Boarman/Baumann/Sollars would collectively earn more than 1 AA slot every one hundred years. 

 

Everyone thinks their guys are the exceptions. And maybe they are. Even if they have 1 chance in 100, someone will be the one. But remember, it isn't about the guy. It is about where the guy stands relative to all the other guys.

 

For example, the last 13 seven seeds who have made the final have all lost. Seems statistically improbable until you see that all 13 times they lost to the #1 seed.

[maligned]

11 hours ago, wrestlenewbie said:

 

Everyone thinks their guys are the exceptions. And maybe they are. Even if they have 1 chance in 100, someone will be the one. But remember, it isn't about the guy. It is about where the guy stands relative to all the other guys.

 

For example, the last 13 seven seeds who have made the final have all lost. Seems statistically improbable until you see that all 13 times they lost to the #1 seed.

Yeah, I do mathematical modeling too. And I've seen the results of all of those tournaments in the data. On a math level, the side to play for an over/under of 1 AA from 400 collective attempts from those specific guys is a little over 1.

[SIACfan]

My take is purely from the eye-test.

 

Mendez & Davison both have excellent chances.

 

I also believe Allred, Lee & Rooks all have a punchers chance. Allred & Rooks are both guys who are so close they can taste it. With Lee it is just a matter of where is he in his comeback. Is he truly ready for the fight that is the NCAA tournament?

 

I would like to include Washington in with the 3 guys above but as has been stated, it looks like something is off.

 

The rest of the guys are all making a statement by just being included. Anything they can do once there is pure gravy. Major surprise if any of them found their way to top 8.

Edited March 1 by SIACfan

[AndyStJ]

On 2/26/2024 at 11:24 AM, maligned said:

Across the last 10 actually wrestled D1 tournaments we've gotten 23 All-Americans.  And we've seen 113 All-Americans from the last 10 actually wrestled D2, D3, NAIA, NJCAA tournaments.

 

That's 2.3 D1 and 11.3 smaller-division All-Americans per year. 

 

Who get these men's spots for us this year? 

 

I follow D1 much more than the others, so it's the one I know. Trying to see things objectively, I think only 2 AAs is the most likely scenario this year.

 

How I'd categorize our Indiana high school grads' AA chances:

 

Likely:

Mendez--He is in an always-deep 141, but he would need to lose a couple of significant upsets not to medal. He's one of 2 (maybe 3) clear gold medal contenders.

Davison--Heavyweight, contrary to high school, tends to be fairly predictable with obvious tiers. Davison seems headed for about a #6 seed, and him winning above his seed or losing below his seed outside of about 3 to 8 is unlikely.

 

Small chance:

Allred--His ranking suggests he's in about the same position he was last year heading into Big 10s, where he emerged not only as an AA threat, but also a dark horse to take the whole thing. However, we haven't seen the same scoring savvy that he showed last year in any of his matches against top competition this year. He's got a great shot to win a couple NCAA matches again, but he'll need to rekindle some things we haven't seen yet this year to make an AA run.

B-Lee--I love how hard this dude has worked to get back and to be ready to bang headed into Big 10s. He's capable of some interesting moments again. Sadly, though, he will need to rediscover one or two more helpings of that past prowess to make a run.

G-Rooks--He's come agonizingly close before, so I wouldn't count him out. Like last year, he needs a workable draw, and he needs to get hot. It's not probable--but not impossible. He's got a really similar mix of results to last year, and he seems headed for a similar seed.

 

Notable others:

DJ Washington--Not sure why he's struggled so much for a sustained period now, but I would have had him in the "small chance" category for sure early this season. He doesn't look like himself at all right now, so it's hard to imagine much post-season impact from him unless he recovers from whatever is ailing him very quickly.

Blake Boarman--Breakout year for Blake. He seems headed for an NCAA bid with a sparkling record of 17-4. But he wrestles a lesser schedule, so it's hard to get a handle on how much he might be able to do against top guys. I'm excited to follow him at SoCon's and beyond.

Gabe Sollars--Super fun pin artist that's had a couple tight ones with AA contenders. He hasn't quite broken through against the upper tier; but if he manages to get into the tournament, he could make some noise.

Brody Baumann--He's another one that needs to sneak into the tournament first, but that shows flashes of creating interesting upsets.

Evan Bates--He's solid. He beats who he should, but loses fairly clearly against the top 30. Getting into the tournament, which he could very likely do, would be a good result for him.

Connor Barket--Big strides forward, but he'll need a special performance at the ACC tournament to get into NCAAs.

Brodie Porter--Same as Barket...big strides, but likely a year or two away from big noise.

Nick Wilham--Admirable job jumping in at 285, but would also need a huge conference tournament.

 

That played out well. If you had called both as finalists you would have been spot on, but Davison as finalist was a little improbable. Mendez was always a real chance.