maligned Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Genius Potential predictions for tournaments this weekend (Genius rating x3 for individual tournament predictions): Goshen Invitational: Fairfield favored by 48 over Goshen and 75 over Whitko. Sagamore Conference: Southmont favored by 18.5 over Danville, 40 and 44.5 over Lebanon and North Montgomery Concordia Invitational: Carroll favored by 43 over Homestead and 49 over Huntington North Woodlan Invitational: Leo favored by 34.5 over Woodlan and 77 over Churubusco Hoosier Conference: Delphi favored by 31 over Benton Central Hoosier Crossroads Conference: Hamilton Southeastern favored by 7 over Wesfield, 19 over Fishers, 33 over Noblesville, 37.5 over Zionsville, 48 over Avon Hoosier Heritage Conference Yorktown favored by 78 over Greenfield Central, 104 over New Palestine Hoosier Hills Conference Jennings County favored by 19 over Jeffersonville, 25.5 over Columbus East, and 82.5 over Floyd Central Duneland Athletic Conference: Crown Point favored by 86.5 over Merrillville and 127.5 over Portage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachZ62 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Didn't really work for HHC did it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontherise219 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 but it was close for the DAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cewrestlingfan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Didn't really work for HHC did it? Me thinks the genius weren't too smart on that one!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachZ62 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Whooooooo hooooooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cewrestlingfan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Genius Potential predictions for tournaments this weekend (Genius rating x3 for individual tournament predictions): Hoosier Hills Conference Jennings County favored by 19 over Jeffersonville, 25.5 over Columbus East, and 82.5 over Floyd Central HHC Results: 1.Columbus East 244.5 2.Jennings County 222.5 3.Jeffersonville 220.0 4.Floyd Central 157.0 5.Madison 125.0 6.New Albany 103.0 7.Seymour 86.0 8.Bedford 45.0 I'm wondering how this is possible. Do you think they scored the tournament improperly? Or maybe......just maybe, the genius rankings are not accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattM Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm wondering how this is possible. Do you think they scored the tournament improperly? Or maybe......just maybe, the genius rankings are not accurate. I would say the Genius Rankings still had the Baldwin factor added into the 160 weight class, but that was not in effect for the actual event. I'm guessing it also didn't taking into account Noblitt going to 103 and the anomaly of him catching Kennedy for the pin. Having the rankings which doesn't factor in those to events would give a somewhat different outcome than what happened at HHC over the weekend. Very, solid win for Columbus East as they found several different wrestlers to gain valuable extra points throughout the day to prove the were the most well rounded team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cewrestlingfan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I would say the Genius Rankings still had the Baldwin factor added into the 160 weight class, but that was not in effect for the actual event. I'm guessing it also didn't taking into account Noblitt going to 103 and the anomaly of him catching Kennedy for the pin. Having the rankings which doesn't factor in those to events would give a somewhat different outcome than what happened at HHC over the weekend. Very, solid win for Columbus East as they found several different wrestlers to gain valuable extra points throughout the day to prove the were the most well rounded team. I'm not sure I would call the Noblitt win an anomaly. He threw Kennedy to his back and Noblitt looked like the better wrestler all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattM Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm not sure I would call the Noblitt win an anomaly. He threw Kennedy to his back and Noblitt looked like the better wrestler all day. Noblitt did look solid on the day and waited to his opportunity against Kennedy. But going off the "Genius Rankings" I would say it was an anomaly. Those rankings have little East scores with Noblitt (or anyone) at 103 which would lower East expected results compared to the actual results. The advancements points for Noblitt and the pin points verses Kennedy who would have been factor in as helping Floyd based on the teams previous results was a big factor in Guinus Rankings not equally reality. Just as the rankings would have most of JC results with Baldwin in the lineup which would increase their expected results compared to the actual results. Though I will say his replacement is a solid wrestlers which shows some of the depth JC has as a team. Just saying why sometimes background information doesn't equal reality since many factors change throughout the season in wrestling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cewrestlingfan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Noblitt did look solid on the day and waited to his opportunity against Kennedy. But going off the "Genius Rankings" I would say it was an anomaly. Those rankings have little East scores with Noblitt (or anyone) at 103 which would lower East expected results compared to the actual results. Just as the rankings would have most of JC results with Baldwin in the lineup which would increase their expected results compared to the actual results. Just saying why sometimes background information doesn't equal reality since many factors change throughout the season in wrestling. Also most of our duals results are without David Johnson as well. That is my point. The Genius rankings are inaccurate. Impossible to consider all factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zachpierson Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Also most of our duals results are without David Johnson as well. That is my point. The Genius rankings are inaccurate. Impossible to consider all factors. y are u bashing these ratings? its just a fun way to do different rankings! They aren't personal its just by past results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cewrestlingfan Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 y are u bashing these ratings? its just a fun way to do different rankings! They aren't personal its just by past results Not bashing......just making an obsevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattM Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'd say if anything it show the Genius Rankings, because of how it is set up, may be better at pick a dual meet situation than an individual tournament one. Since both had different factors in how a winner is determined. The Genius Ranking also have some slight flaws even then since the nature of our sport causes movement in weight class throughout the year which could cause a slightly bigger impact when compared to how the rankings from football or basketball work if one player (unless he is super special) is out of their line up. Agreed it is a good system that does help show where the dual team strength around the state. But, because of the nature of moving people around in weight classes and the different in a dual compared to a individual tournament I think wrestling may be a harder to develop a accurate point spread for compared to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jag Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I am pretty impressed it did get the top 4 teams correct in the hoosier crossroad conference, not quite in the right order but still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 cewrestlingfan: This is what makes the ratings entertaining. The ratings aren't inaccurate unless you expect they can see the future--it's just math computations of what your past performance says about how you relate to other teams. It's not an infallible prophet. Your performance up until this weekend suggested you were a slight underdog. You wrestled great and won. Thankfully, nothing is decided by ratings. It's all decided on the mat. The ratings are for entertainment and analysis only. MattM: You're exactly right. It's impossible to do a rating that takes every single variable into consideration. In an ideal world, all results would be weighted in the system based on what percentage of the starting lineup was actually there...this is just impossible to track. Also, I agree that the ratings might be slightly better at predicting dual winners than tournament winners when we're considering closely matched teams. Still, with closely matched teams, it doesn't matter whether it's a dual or a tournament; the results are highly variable even with normal lineups. I'm working on a system for showing exactly what certain point spreads mean in terms of what percentage of the time a particular team should beat another team. Those percentages will show that even teams favored by 15 in a dual or 45 in a tournament can often lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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