maligned

On 4/24/2024 at 2:38 PM, ReformedPoster said:

I have Parris as the GOAT even if he doesn't medal (which would be a huge upset if he doesn't come home with a medal).  

• 3x state champ, 1 loss in HS
• NCAA champ, Hodge winner
• Age group world champ
• Sr world medalist
• US Olympian

Sarah Hildebrant is the women's GOAT without a doubt.  But Parris is the overall GOAT at the moment.  And I do suspect that Jesse Mendez's final resume will place him above Parris when its all said and done.

He's not a huge medal favorite. He'll come in as the 4th best guy and capable of beating anyone--but if brackets work out with him on the same side as 2 of the Big 3, he has to get an upset to medal.

AMENDMENT: I just researched and saw that ranking points should be locked in with Mason and the Big 3 as the 4 seeds. That will mean he can medal without beating one of them and that he's a clear medal favorite. I disagree that a loss would be a "huge" upset because the rise of new, young monsters, along with upsets by savvy vets, are commonplace internationally--but him not medalling would be an upset if the draws hold.

IU picks up 2023 Columbia 133-lb national qualifier, Angelo Rini. He's a grad transfer who was out much of this season with injuries. 

Avon's own Cheaney Schoeff (IU redshirt at 133 this year) enters the portal in a possibly not unrelated move.

Cheaney Schoeff also enters the portal fray at 133, ending his IU tenure.

17 minutes ago, Dingo Brigade said:

Hey there. Just wanted to let everyone know why I was MIA today. I had a health scare last night and I was unable to make it today. Pretty big bummer, but I'm heading home early today. Thanks for those of you who experienced this with me and it looks like we have a great shot at having 3 Indiana Olympians, which is absolutely incredible. I'm sad about Nick Lee but still a phenomenal showing by him. Mendez and Carroll both showed up and got some big scalps. I'll be rooting from afar for our 3 to finish the deal tonight.

Wow, so sorry! Get well soon!

Team sports vs individual sports are very different. If you aren't winning titles eventually as an individual, you're losing matches and can't be considered the best. In team sports, you could lose games but still be clearly the best individual. 

I do agree that being a 4-timer or being undefeated for a career is overrated. Mason Parris losing a match as a freshman at a big guy weight or Howe losing early to a fellow all-timer shouldn't mean anything when compared to 4-timers that were at low weights and/or didn't face royalty as freshmen. 

Iran 190 (5 gold, 8 medals)

Japan 130 (2, 5)

Kyrgyzstan 121 (1, 4)

Kazakhstan 118 (1, 4)

Mongolia 92 (0, 4)

Uzbekistan 85 (0, 3)

India 84 (0, 3)

Bahrain gets the 10th gold and 3 other medals...4 for 4 in medals from their import participants.

CP alum Frazier hits the portal out of Va Tech.. Wrestlestat has him at #49 among all 133s on D1 rosters. He'd have immediate national qualifier potential in the right spot.

Wrestling schools in 3A/4A out of total wrestling schools: 33% (102 of 311)

State placers from those 3A/4A schools: 70% (79 of 112)

Athletes representing those same 3A/4A schools in the T & F list above: 81% (65 of 80)

We see in wrestling too, that there can be a lot of small schools represented in a list of "at least one state qualifier" or "at least one placer" because there are so many of them. But you can see in the list that no 1A/2A school has more than 2 kids, and there are only 15 small-school kids (19%) coming from 67% of the total schools.

47 minutes ago, ReformedPoster said:

We haven't seen Matt Lee on a mat in quite a while.  Not sure he could beat Kervin at this point.

33 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

Matt Lee went 5-3 against D1 opponents in 2024 wrestling in open tournaments.

This would be a really good match. History has shown NAIA, D2, D3 national champs to be around NCAA national qualifier level. Kervin's domination over all but the very top of NAIA and domination over good D2 and D3 competition suggest he's at that level. And WrestleStat had Matt Lee as the #20-ranked 165 on all rosters in D1 this year. That would be an interesting one. 

14 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

I don't doubt that, but it doesn't change the fact that 97 kg (214 lbs) is a long way away from 197 pounds. That is a lot of weight for someone with Christian Carroll's frame to cut.

 

But if he is able to do it, there is no guarantee that he will be as dominate as he was this past weekend at 97 kg.

 

I'm not trying to knock Christian Carroll here. I'm all about the success of our Indiana guys. My comments were more about raising the topic of the need for a weight class between 197 & HWT at the college level. Christian is one individual that I feel would greatly benefit from just such a weight class.

I fully agree that 97kg (214lbs) is more ideal to take advantage of CC's insane frame. That said...

The obvious example of a stout 97kg guy going back and forth between 197lb and 97kg is the 5'11" Kyle Snyder his first couple years of top international competition. Even at an inch shorter, Christian is starting with a fuller 214-lb frame than Snyder had at the same age--but if he can follow even 5% of the Snyder blueprint, he's on a great path.

For those that didn't see it elsewhere:

Freshmen:

Evan Stanley 1st

Miguel Rojas 2nd

Lucas Boe 1st

(wish we actually had these guys in-state for the HS season!)

Sophomore:

Parker Reynolds 5th

On 4/7/2024 at 6:38 PM, TC7 said:

He will be at 197 for sure next season 

8 hours ago, Caleb Spires said:

I’m going to go out on a limb and say TC7 has some good insight, so I’ll take his word for it.

 

Christian wrestled incredible over the weekend. Just keeps adding to an amazing resume before his first college season. I think he’ll be an immediate contender at 197 next season, and hopefully makes some noise at the OTT.

Thanks, TC. I guess if we'd paid attention to CC's post-title interview this weekend, it would have been clear too. In brief, he's 5'10" and the guys at 285 are such monsters, structurally. He also mentions wanting to coach down the road and suggests there are no examples of ex-HWTs doing that at the highest levels.

21 hours ago, SIACfan said:

 

I'm no expert & am in no way close to the situation. But looking at it from a far, 17 pounds is a lot of weight to shed & keep off for an entire college wrestling season for someone built like Christian Carroll. I would suspect he is already on a pretty strict diet just to be at 97 kg, but again I have no real insight except that he wrestled 220 as a junior in HS.

 

Cutting that kind of weight & being competitive at the college level can be extremely difficult. Mendez is a good example. He was a completely different animal this year at 141 vs 133 his freshman season. He was much more powerful this year.

 

Chrisian is a perfect example of why college wrestling needs a weight class between 197 & HWT. And with the recent development of the competitors in the HWT class in college, it is only getting tougher for guys who are at their best around 210-220 pounds.

 

I'm not actually suggesting adding a weight class to college but just restructuring the classes to:

125

133

141

150

160

172

184

197

215

HWT

 

It more closely follows the international weight classes to boot.

 

 

 

 

I agree with the sentiment of narrowing the gap between 197 and 285, but I would be disappointed if we narrowed the low-middle weights, where the highest numbers of guys naturally fall. The international weights don't make sense at all. They were created by choosing the 6 weights we wanted most--and then trying to squeeze 4 additional ones in somewhere (and accidentally skewing way too heavily toward big guys). They would be structured differently if we were allowed 10 weights at the Olympics.

Something like this would include bigger guys better than we currently do, while catching as many college wrestlers' natural sizes as possible, in my opinion. Including KGs for your benefit, @SIACfan  :

126 (57kg)

134 (61kg)

142 (64.5kg)

150 (68kg)

158 (72kg)

167 (76kg)

177 (80kg)

190 (86kg)

210 (95kg)

285 (129kg)

Interesting. There have been so many successful smaller heavies the last 25 years, I would have thought he'd push through and make a run at getting elite against big boys. It'll be fun to see how he evolves.

D1 Qualifier data is a limited way of evaluating who produces the top talent, but it's a decent starting point. 

Top 20 D1 Qualifiers, combined 2023 & 2024:

1    pa    89
2    il    54
3    oh    50
4    nj    49
5    ca    39
6    ny    33
7    ia    29
8    mn    28
9    mi    24
10    ok    23
11    wi    21
11    fl    21
13    mo    18
14    in    17
15    va    16
15    ga    16

17    co    13
18    nc    10
19    id    8
19    ks    8

Top 20, per capita (Qualifiers for 2 years, per 1 million residents):

1    ia    9.0
2    pa    6.9
3    ok    5.7
4    nj    5.3
5    mn    4.9
6    il    4.3
7    oh    4.2
8    id    4.1
9    wi    3.6
10    ne    3.5
11    mo    2.9
12    ks    2.7
13    in    2.5
14    mi    2.4
15    co    2.2

16    va    1.8
17    ny    1.7
18    ga    1.5
19    ct    1.4
20    al    1.4

(no CA or FL)

3 hours ago, Y2CJ41 said:

 

Iowa definitely in the second tier. Colorado, Nebraska, and Florida are on the back end of tier 2 or the top of tier 3, they aren't consistent enough to be considered in tier 2.

 

We aren't doing the per capita stuff though. Per capita is the way Iowa justifies being relevant.

That's true. I agree that we shouldn't put much value on populations or enrollments to evaluate relative success. 

3 hours ago, Y2CJ41 said:

The top tier(in somewhat order)

Pennsylvania
Ohio

California
New Jersey
Illinois

 

Second tier(not too much order)
Wisconsin
Michigan
Minnesota
Indiana
Oklahoma
Missouri
New York
Georgia(sneaking up there)

Forgot Iowa. They're the #1 per capita producer of top-level talent, despite the small numbers. California is second-tier in per capita talent, but the sheer numbers are big. Colorado and Florida are in the second tier discussion too despite not being in the wrestling belt, and Nebraska is top 10 in per capita talent.

7 minutes ago, TeamGarcia said:

125- I was going to pick Figs at whatever seed they gave him . He came back from a loss to Provo from Stanford in OT 13-8, in early February to beat Provo 4-1 at PAC 12 Championships . 2 of his loses was injury defaulted and was giving a loss to Volk at Cliff Keen which is debatable. You can check that match out on Flo. Flo even did a story on that match . His only real loss match was to California and Oregon State Rival Maximo Renteria . Wonder why Maximo didn’t wrestle in NCAA’s cause he would have AA if not a finalist . Both they know each other very well . 
 

As stated earlier Rich is Family . Asa wrestled with him on Team Shutt a few times while in High School . Super Proud of him . 

Interesting about Renteria. I wonder if he came into college small. He was 5-19 in 2 years at Illinois, but he was 6-0 in opens this year behind Kaylor, who graduates. He'll obviously be one to watch if the Figueroa win was for real.

7 hours ago, SIwrestling said:

One of those Little Rock AA's used to wreak havoc at the Mater Dei Holiday Classic and had some battles with some of our best. 

The word "battles" might be a bit overstating the resistance he got from us his senior year (below). But Sollars did get him when they were sophomores.

6 hours ago, SIACfan said:

 

125 was the real difference.

 

At 184, 9 of 19 contestants who finished outside of the top 10 scored double digit points. Where at 124, only 2 of 19 people outside of the top 10 scored double digit points. And only 3 of 19 outside of the top 10 scored any points at all.

 

True. It's kind of like 184 was the price of admission and 125 got you to the VIP room. Only 1 of the bottom 11 scored anything at all at 184 and 16 of the top 18 had at least 11 points. 

1 hour ago, SIACfan said:

 

Not sure that 41 & 57 were that wide open, especially 157 as Haines had been #1 there all year. I think it had more to do with the fact that you can only pick two #1's or #2's & most people had more faith elsewhere.

 

Brooks was by far the most popular #1 as 24 out of 29 contestants choose him. Kirkvliet was the next most popular #1 followed by Keckheisen. 19 of the 29 contestants had Brooks with either Kirkvliet or Keckeisen, and one person had Kirkvliet & Keckheisen as their top picks. So 20 out of 29 had some combination of those 3 as their top picks.

 

But I will say that after the top guys at 41 & 57, it was wide open & most of us didn't do a very good job of handicapping those weights.

 

I would also say the scores this year far exceeded those from last year, because of Starocci, Vito & Carr being seeded 9, 6 & 4 respectively. Those to me were 3 very obvious picks outside of the top 2 seeds, and 20 of 29 contestants had all 3 of them. And the top 16 finishers had all three. If you didn't have all 3 of those guys you had zero chance of winning. Heck, I had all three of them & Brooks & Keckheisen & still only managed to finish 11th.

 

One last thought, Starocci was clearly the easiest pick of the contest as 28 of 29 people had him and 23 took him as their wildcard.

It was definitely 125 and 184 where the higher-scoring contestants made their hay. You can see a clear delineation between high-ranking and low-ranking overall finishers based on scoring big in those two weights.

In retrospect, the Keckeisen pick, especially, made a lot of sense because the rest of the weight was more difficult to gauge. Guys that took him freed up a lower seed to score complementary points elsewhere that were more of a sure thing than lower-seed options at 184.

At 125, I know Figueroa looked like a world beater this weekend, but everyone took their turn to look great or to lose 3 or 4 matches at that weight this year. It was a bit of a shot in the dark guessing who would be hot, and the ones that landed that shot and scored points at 125 finished up the leaderboard.

Final Standings are below. Congratulations to TeamGarcia!

Click a couple times to zoom in:

These are the Top 4 headed into tonight. There's a winning scenario available for all four contestants!

18 minutes ago, busstogate said:

I have sorrow for Woods going forward.  He was right there all through college, but just missed the big one.  An all-time bada$$.

So true. And if you're a Woods guy, I think last year was the real "rip your heart out" year. Compared to this year, I think he was just slightly back up the hill at his true apex then. And a once-in-a-lifetime throw by a guy who's never hit a throw took what was so nearly his.

4 minutes ago, busstogate said:

I think he was the reason Swiderski went to 149.  Echemendia is the real deal.

It's funny, too, how matchups matter. Woods controlled Echemendia twice, Mendez pushed Woods around--but Echemendia was such a handful for Mendez.