royboy74

OK Y2, I broke it down for you assuming a true random draw. Let's just stick with the example of Fortwayne Semi-state vs Merrillville semi-state. In a true random draw the odds are as follows. I calculated the odds of each occurence: # of 1st round matches | probability ------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 | 0.34 % 1 | 2.40 % 2 | 7.79 % 3 | 15.59 % 4 | 21.43 % 5 | 21.43 % 6 | 16.07 % 7 | 9.18 % 8 | 4.02 % 9 | 1.34 % 10 | 0.33 % 11 | 0.061 % 12 | 0.0076 % 13 | 0.00059 % 14 | 0.000021% That's all I have to say about this. It is very possible to match up with a given semi-state 6 or 7 times using a random draw.

I don't see how you think that there is a maximum number of times 2 semi-states could match up. On average there is a 1/3 chance that any SS would match up against a particular other semi-state so if you look at that match up over a long enough time period all that means is that the average should come out to 4.67 times (14*1/3). In any given year there is a chance that FW SS could match up against Merillville SS in every weight class (all 14 of them). It is not very likely, but it is possible. Kind of like there is a chance of flipping a coin 14 times and getting all heads (except worse because this would be a 3-sided coin). I guess I could see your frustration though if it has happened like that 6 years in a row, but I have to believe that it will average out if you stick around long enough. Each semi-state should see two of the other SS's 5 times, and one 4 times. The past six years, for Fort Wayne it has been 6 times vs. Merrillville and 4 times vs. Evansvill and New Castle. The most times you should see a respective semi-state in the first round should be five times. The draw isn't so random if the same match-ups occur year after year. Also, if you want to look at it even further, the 189lb bracket at semi-state has been exactly the same the past four years. Y2, The odds that any one weight class would be drawn up the same way 4 years in a row is 1/81. There are only 3 different unique ways they can draw each bracket. Considering that there are 14 brackets to draw up every year means that there is a 14/81= 17 % likelihood that this might happen in one weight class. Certainly not that unlikely that you should question the randomness. I guess that the concept of random draw doesn't make sense to alot of people. It's statistics. Your logic is only the most likely outcome of a random draw. It is not the only outcome. If they were to stop allowing Merrillville semi-state to go against Fort Wayne just because the bracket already came up that way 5 times, the draw would cease to be random. In a true random draw there is a chance that the Fort Wayne Semistate could go against the Merrillville semi-state in all 14 weight classes. There is also a possibility that Fort Wayne semi-state and Merrillville semi-state go against each other in none of the 14 weight classes. Statistics predicts that over time the results of the random draw should average out to the most likely outcome that you feel should happen each year. I hope this explanation helps.

I don't see how you think that there is a maximum number of times 2 semi-states could match up. On average there is a 1/3 chance that any SS would match up against a particular other semi-state so if you look at that match up over a long enough time period all that means is that the average should come out to 4.67 times (14*1/3). In any given year there is a chance that FW SS could match up against Merillville SS in every weight class (all 14 of them). It is not very likely, but it is possible. Kind of like there is a chance of flipping a coin 14 times and getting all heads (except worse because this would be a 3-sided coin). I guess I could see your frustration though if it has happened like that 6 years in a row, but I have to believe that it will average out if you stick around long enough.

I'm with Dingo. That was probably best Team Indiana Gold at Scholastic Duals ever last year. Fabio.... do you care to elaborate on why you have your opinion that Indiana wrestling is down this year?

Congratulations and Thank you to Coach Vlink and the rest of the staff. The kids on the team looked great last night. It was a great effort. Also, I wanted to give some thanks and congratulations to Bill Hawkins as well. He brought a bunch of these kids up through the ranks in middle school and in the off-season.

Xcard, You failed to mention that basically 2 of the mats are not even fully visible even if you do have a seat. Ummm OK. Look at the other semi-state venues. Only one of the other semi-states, New Castle, is held at a high school and it has the LARGEST HS fieldhouse in the WORLD. I have never been there for a semi-state, but I have been there for middle school duals qualifiers, and I can tell you that it is HUGE and you can see all of the mats clearly from every seat. The remaining 2 semi-states are at Roberts Stadium and Allen County Coliseum. Never been to either of these places, but based on feedback from other people on this board it sounds pretty nice to me. Probably because there isn't a high school with enough space to adequately support these events. I highly doubt that anyone would need to rope off a section at the other venues. OK... so your solution is to not eat. Take the questionable prices from the other concession stands you have seen and double them at Merrillville. Sad but true fact of life... people are pigs. They still leave a giant mess from their concession stand items, but somehow that is tolerable. I think the reasoning for this is 1) Boost concession stand revenue. 2) There isn't room for the coolers because the venue is too small. So the elite athletes I guess should fill up with pizza and hotdogs and the other concession stand crap. I think the amount of money made that day should more than justify the "hassle" of having to run a hospitality room. The tournament is run efficiently in terms of time. You failed to mention that there is pretty much no place for the wrestlers to warm up because the venue is TOO SMALL! I'll take my chances at a BIGGER VENUE! This is not intended to be a knock on the Merrillville wrestling program at all. I just want to be able to get a seat and watch ALL of the matches and let the kids have enough room to do their thing (warm up and bring coolers).

I noticed from the rankings that there are a bunch of CIA and CIA-NWI kids ranked #1 or #2 by Indianamat.com Here is the list: 103 #1 Brenden Campbell #2 Cody Phillips 112 #1 Anthony Hawkins 119 #2 Camden Eppert 125 #2 Jason Tsirtsis 135 #1 Eric Roach #2 Johnny Dillon 145 #1 Sammy Bennett 160 #1 Briar Runyan 171 #1 Michael Duckworth 189 #1 Marcus Shrewsbury I can't wait to see the next crop of kids

BlueBolt, How many times did you watch, "Fight Club?" That's a great line!

But that's not current. Is Powless at 197 for IU now?

I think Marcus Schontube (sp?) wrestled 197 for University of Pennsylvania but not 100 % on that.

Good post, Maximus!

Graber's less than impressive win (5-2) over unranked Brett Worden didn't place very high at the Al Smith, coupled with Hodges' close match at 215 with Cleveland at the Traicoff was enough to move Hodges past Graber at 189 Thanks for the explanation. Makes sense. I wasn't aware of the match with Worden. I guess that's why I am not the rankings guy. I shot you a cool point. By the way, the rankings have been better than ever this year, so thanks for taking the time to do them.

I think Hodges started the season ranked behind Graber at 189. Then he went to 215 and was ranked 2nd behind Baker. Then he lost to Cleveland and moved to 3rd at 215. Now he has apparently moved to 189 where he is now ranked 2nd ahead of Graber who is to my knowledge still undefeated. So how did that happen?

Just thought I would see if it bothered anybody else that the consolation matches are shorter.... especially in the state series. Some of these kids get to the state series not by being great athletes or great technicians, but by being in great shape and wrestling tough for 6 minutes. When the matches get shorter I believe that it hurts these type of kids the most and that's a shame. I have brought it up in the past, but noone else would get on my side so I figured I would try again.

It's funny you should say that because the brackets are done with a random blind draw. I like the blind draw. If you are really the best kid in the bracket then who cares whether you wrestle the 2nd best kid in the finals or the semi-finals? well i think it just really shows you really is the 2nd or 3rd best in state it may not be much, but why not have the best two wrestlers saved for last? and i still think there should be a second wrestleback round Hey... I am all for the wrestlebacks, but keep the blind draw. I guess I have come to the conclusion that wrestlebacks have about as much of a chance as getting that semi-state out of Merrillville. Or making the consolation matches a full 6 minutes which bothers the hell out of me that they are shorter, but nobody else seems to care.

It's funny you should say that because the brackets are done with a random blind draw. I like the blind draw. If you are really the best kid in the bracket then who cares whether you wrestle the 2nd best kid in the finals or the semi-finals?

I have a suggestion... how about a countdown until the pickems results are posted.... 354 days until the next Al Smith.... Just kidding... I know you got other things going on in your life now....

Haven't heard too much from ole Fabio lately. Especially considering how well the Cavemen have been doing. How's it been going? You never commented on whether you thought that this year's Mishawaka team was tougher than last years.

I would like to see the McMurray/Myers match too, but I don't think it is going to happen because it doesn't make alot of sense if Portage wants to have their best chance at winning the dual meet.

I would like to know how many Elkins of Portage had his senior year.

These are some goofy ideas. The team scoring is fine the way it is.

I second that . I thought that you also lost Norville, one of the Mersich's, one of the Guerras, Reinhoel, and Kostry.

I thought someone told me that Ayersman lost to Harvey of Cathedral at the Traicoff.

Hey Drewboy, Your main man Stein moved up to 12 in the rankings.

Saltwater, He is the 3 seed on the bracket that I printed out and he is in the 3 seed spot on the results bracket, so I think that he is in the same spot.