Neither guy has wrestled a strong schedule to date so hard to draw too many conclusions...wait, never mind, that is what these boards are for.
While Chad has had some hard to explain loses given his past achievements, even his D1 wins have been underwhelming (2-1 over wrestlestats #219 ranked wrestler, 8-5 over #132). That said, recency bias does not allow you to overlook his last match which was a 3-2 decision over #24.
Based on recent form though you would still have to favor Nick. Nick's best win is a pin of #14. On the year he is 9-0 with bonus points in all matches (2 pins, 4 TF, 3 MD). The PSU board also posted some interesting "career" stats. In approximately 1.25 years Nick is 11 all-time at PSU for TF (12), #6 for % of matches with bonus points (69.4%), and tied for #4 for number of MD in a season (12).
They wrestle the matches for a reason, but based on current evidence Nick has to be a big favorite, especially with the match at PSU.