Does CP really have the advantage?

[igotcaught]

I’ve seen a lot of talk the past couple years that CP benefits from their semi state compared to Brownsburg. The talk started up again this year and realizing how tough CP draws were I did some research. 
 

CP has 14 wrestlers trying to qualify for state. In their way are 12 different state ranked opponents. (86% chance CP will wrestle a state ranked opponent to qualify.) Brownsburg has 13 wrestlers trying to qualify for state. There are only 7 state ranked opponents in their way of qualifying (54% chance BB will wrestle a state ranked opponent to qualify.)

 

I noticed CP got really tough semi final draws. CP could have a state ranked opponent in every semi final compared to 12/13 for Brownsburg. But here’s the madness. CP has 6 different Semi Final matchups against Top 5 State Ranked wrestlers (4 of those are ranked top 2). Brownsburg will face 0 top 5 state ranked opponents during the semi finals this weekend. 
 

Evansville is still clearly the harder semi state and I would argue that the two toughest individual draws between CP and BB are Gibbs and Haines. But I think the evidence above proves that CP will have to earn their state title this year just like Brownsburg/ CG will. 

[JORVILLE]

1 hour ago, igotcaught said:

I’ve seen a lot of talk the past couple years that CP benefits from their semi state compared to Brownsburg. The talk started up again this year and realizing how tough CP draws were I did some research. 
 

CP has 14 wrestlers trying to qualify for state. In their way are 12 different state ranked opponents. (86% chance CP will wrestle a state ranked opponent to qualify.) Brownsburg has 13 wrestlers trying to qualify for state. There are only 7 state ranked opponents in their way of qualifying (54% chance BB will wrestle a state ranked opponent to qualify.)

 

I noticed CP got really tough semi final draws. CP could have a state ranked opponent in every semi final compared to 12/13 for Brownsburg. But here’s the madness. CP has 6 different Semi Final matchups against Top 5 State Ranked wrestlers (4 of those are ranked top 2). Brownsburg will face 0 top 5 state ranked opponents during the semi finals this weekend. 
 

Evansville is still clearly the harder semi state and I would argue that the two toughest individual draws between CP and BB are Gibbs and Haines. But I think the evidence above proves that CP will have to earn their state title this year just like Brownsburg/ CG will. 

Before the Semi Finals though to even punch their ticket Brownsburg will have need 4 different kids to beat a Top 10 kid .106 have to beat kid ranked 8th. 120 who is multi time placer will need to beat the 3rd ranked kid. Gibbs at 150 and ranked 3rd will have to beat returning state runner up . 175 pounder will need to beat the 5th ranked kid. So in order to score team points at State you need to get there. CP favored in 12/14 matches in ticket round. While Brownsburg 9/13 using the state rankings . 

Edited February 6 by JORVILLE

[igotcaught]

8 minutes ago, JORVILLE said:

Before the Semi Finals though to even punch their ticket Brownsburg will have need 4 different kids to beat a Top 10 kid .106 have to beat kid ranked 8th. 120 who is multi time placer will need to beat the 3rd ranked kid. Gibbs at 150 and ranked 3rd will have to beat returning state runner up . 175 pounder will need to beat the 5th ranked kid. 

Before the semi’s Crown Point will have 4 wrestlers facing top 10 opponents as well.

[JORVILLE]

5 minutes ago, igotcaught said:

Before the semi’s Crown Point will have 4 wrestlers facing top 10 opponents as well.

Out of those 4 . CP heavy favorite at 215. At 144 big underdog. The other 2 at 132/150 a toss up I would say. 

[THECountyFan]

1 hour ago, igotcaught said:

I’ve seen a lot of talk the past couple years that CP benefits from their semi state compared to Brownsburg. The talk started up again this year and realizing how tough CP draws were I did some research. 
 

CP has 14 wrestlers trying to qualify for state. In their way are 12 different state ranked opponents. (86% chance CP will wrestle a state ranked opponent to qualify.) Brownsburg has 13 wrestlers trying to qualify for state. There are only 7 state ranked opponents in their way of qualifying (54% chance BB will wrestle a state ranked opponent to qualify.)

 

I noticed CP got really tough semi final draws. CP could have a state ranked opponent in every semi final compared to 12/13 for Brownsburg. But here’s the madness. CP has 6 different Semi Final matchups against Top 5 State Ranked wrestlers (4 of those are ranked top 2). Brownsburg will face 0 top 5 state ranked opponents during the semi finals this weekend. 
 

Evansville is still clearly the harder semi state and I would argue that the two toughest individual draws between CP and BB are Gibbs and Haines. But I think the evidence above proves that CP will have to earn their state title this year just like Brownsburg/ CG will. 

I enjoyed this factual evidence, but with Brownsburg having a better showing at regionals this year than the past years besides Haines they are also benefitting from good draws because of their good weekend. CP just got more bad draws this year than the past imo.