maligned
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Everything posted by maligned
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A few observations I found interesting from the ratings: 1. Normally there are a few more 4A schools in the mid- to high-90s. After the "Big 3" national-level programs, though, other 4A schools were not as strong as in years past. 2. Related to point #1, there are more 3A, 2A, and even a couple 1A schools, in the top 30. It's normal to see the top 10 from only 4A and to only see 2 or 3 non-4A schools in the top 20. This year, the top of all of the other three classes was quite strong. 3. Despite falling in the head-to-head win when it mattered most at Team State, Adams Central's per-match performance throughout the season was significantly stronger than Rochester and other 1A schools. However, the ratings #1's in the other 3 classes managed to be Team State champions.
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Below are Genius Ratings for all schools in Indiana, based on their performance for the entire season prior to sectional. THESE RATINGS ARE STRICTLY FOR ENTERTAINMENT AND ARE NOT USED TO DETERMINE WHO QUALIFIES FOR TEAM STATE. These ratings use algorithms similar to the baseline algorithms used to establish sports point spreads in Las Vegas. POTENTIAL is based strictly on point differential earned in duals and tournaments through the season. Winning and losing is less important. This rating is more predictive and is also more accurate in comparing two teams' expected duals point differential. REWARD is based strictly on wins/losses within the context of your schedule. This rating is more politically correct and shows better what you "deserve". "Strength of Schedule (SoS)" shows the season-long quality of opponents your team faced. "ClassRank" shows the ranking of the Top 20 teams from each class for 2023-24. "Rating" combines the two ratings, POTENTIAL and REWARD, into one overall rating. Here is an excel file if you want to do your own sorting: Genius Ratings OVERALL Final 2024.xlsx Or here is a direct image. Click a few times to zoom in and see the ratings.
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I DM'd you
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This is very true. A while back, I did 10 years of research of underclassmen at state and their results the following season. On average, the 8th placers with 1-3 records at state do no better in the following season than first round losers from their same bracket do the following season. Conversely, the 3-1 kids that place 5th do better the following season than the 2-2 wrestlers that place 4th. Semi-state uses the exact same structure, so we know that, on average, the best ticket round losers are better than the 4th placers we send to state. These are data-backed illustrations of everyone's point.
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Tons of single-session tickets available, but it's not possible to buy all-session tickets. Makes total sense.
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I'll always mention Jim Ledbetter on Black recognition threads. Wise, caring, thoughtful father-like figure to so many wrestlers, young coaches, and young officials. One of the best coaches and one of the best officials I've ever been around.
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Nothing is official until the injury info deadline and state finals pass since a few teams are right behind you. But it's almost certain.
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Here is the Team State qualification leaderboard through Semi-State. Classification assignments are now finalized. The IHSAA released its data and the only changes were South Bend Adams moving up to 4A and Decatur Central dropping to 3A. Only a few points are available at state, but there's still some drama for the 6th spot in 4A and the 8th spot in 2A and 1A. (6 automatic wildcards in 4A, 8 automatic in the other three classes). DON'T FORGET: Send your injury or transfer info by Thursday at the latest. Page 6 of this doc gives instructions: IHSWCA Team State Duals Qualification Procedures 2024.pdf Here's the full Leaderboard and classification data: Team State Classification & Leaderboard 2024.xlsx * = injury or transfer data added in Or click here a few times to zoom in:
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Sectional Forfeits per School by Class: 4A (39 schools, >2000 students): 0.6 forfeits 3A (60+4 schools, 977-1999 students): 1.9 forfeits 2A (90+2 schools, 501-970 students): 2.2 forfeits 1A (91+26 schools, <500 students): 4.7 forfeits 400-499 students (30+6 schools): 3.9 ff's 300-399 students (31+8 schools): 4.9 ff's <300 students (30+12 schools): 5.2 ff's '+' schools refers to schools in this class size that did not have the minimum number of sectional participants (7) to be officially classified
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If you have a kid that meets the three criteria below, please follow the instructions on Page 6 in the attached pdf to submit injury or transfer information by THURSDAY for credit to your Team State qualifying score: --Out for the whole state series this year --Coming back next year --Made it to Semi-State last year (in 2A, 3A, 4A) or to Regional last year (1A) IHSWCA Team State Duals Qualification Procedures 2024.pdf
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Average grade levels for each weight class this weekend are below. As expected, average grade increases by weight class until plateauing at 138 and above: 106: 10.1 113: 10.6 120: 10.7 126: 11.0 132: 11.1 138 - 285: All with random totals between 11.2 and 11.75
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Last year, Frazier's 6 matches at semi-state and state before Thrine went like this: Fall Tech 12-0 11-3 Fall Tech Thrine, meanwhile, wins 5-2 and 9-8 in the first two rounds at state. ...then 4-3 Thrine And by the way, Frazier and Hockaday's pedigrees nationally and in-state were/are very comparable. Someone compared Hockaday's status to Mendez. That's just plain silly. Hockaday's a beast. But he's a solid D1, Logan Frazier-level pseudo lock--not a genuine lock against someone like Thrine. I'd pick Hockaday to win this match, but people are short-sighted if they think it's going to be a runaway. Thrine WILL score on Hockaday. He's just so slick and calm in the big moments--and it will be his first chance all year to open up and wrestle without a target on his back. It will be a killer match.
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DOE had you at 2050, but the IHSAA just released its official numbers yesterday so we're in the process of updating our data. They have you closer to your quote--with only 1883. You will be in 3A when we update the leaderboard. Not sure why DOE was so far off. At first glance, almost everyone is the same in the IHSAA release as what we pulled from the DOE site. I just landed from a 2-week overseas work trip. Trying to get enrollment numbers corrected according to the IHSAA release yesterday. Also beginning to add in some injury info. Later today or tomorrow morning we should be good to go.
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I don't think they "get tickets." They get an access code to buying 2 tickets before the public. Is that right?
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--Each quarter bracket has one kid from each semi-state, a 1st Placer, a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 4th --1st from a given semi-state will be in the opposite half from the 2nd and 3rd from the same semi-state --following these rules, qualifiers are randomly placed in the brackets
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Yes, so basically only the lowest sectional-placer that loses in the regional quarterfinals doesn't get SS round 1 points. The other 7 in the regional bracket do.
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Jarred may be underrated in the greatest ever discussions because of how loaded we were with talent at his size during that period. He proved his potential out of state but didnt stick to the wrestling path to raise his profile. But he's such a phenomenal athlete. He's the best MMA strawweight in the world and arguably the best MMA fighter ever out of Indiana (respect to Jon Fitch too).
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They're underdogs in terms of ranking in 3 brackets, and the slightest of favorites in 2 or 3 others. If they tie the record, they'll have had an amazing day; but getting 13 or 14 will require absolutely everything going their way.
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Unfortunately, we don't upgrade an alternate unless they win to earn the next advancement level. However, your sectional was a Category 6, meaning we awarded Regional points to any of your guys who placed Top 6 at sectional anyway.
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Here is Team State qualifying through regional. Results are verified, but enrollment numbers are still unofficial. Some DOE numbers need verified, and we will only use the DOE enrollment numbers we're currently using if the IHSAA does not do its annual enrollment/classification release before the state finals. Remember, with changes this year: 4A: 3 best semi-state high scores, plus next best 3 scores are automatic. 2 vote-ins in December. 1A-3A: All 4 best semi-state scores plus next 4 best scores are automatic. 4 vote-ins in December. Rankings in 1A will see very little movement from here on out. Injury info still hasn't been processed and enrollment numbers are unofficial, so nothing is official. But assuming this board is on target, only the top 9 teams are involved for automatic bids at this point. In 2A, the top 6 scores here will probably get in for either SS reasons or wildcard reasons (again, assuming no big injury or classification changes). Some intrigue for the final automatic wildcard and the 1 v. 1 New Castle SS bid. In 3A, big points are still up for grabs and we'll still see considerable movement. In 4A, this is the week to get fed. Nothing's decided if you don't win a lot--and huge moves can still be made even by teams far down the board that have a lot of wrestlers left. Link to regional & sectional week leaderboards and classification numbers: Team State Classification & Leaderboard 2024.xlsx Click multiple times to zoom in on this image to see only the Regional Leaderboard:
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Yes, this comment is true in general for his name among all names. It far transcends wrestling. But, man, it's such a killer wrestling name.
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Cale Bonenberger is pretty amazing too. Greens, meat, marrow..what else do you need?
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Potential for 31 to go through. Only 6 potential matchups this weekend.
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I thought Matt Fish was pretty fantastic, too--though maybe not the "coolest" in the positive sense.
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I like that fire, 84Coach. For you and Coach Gard and whoever else, that document I linked in the leaderboard post has 2 sheets: the leaderboard is one and all the enrollment data is the other if you want to take a look. Enrollment numbers are also the last column in the leaderboard image. -500 is 1A (91 schools) 500+ is 2A (90) 977+ is 3A (60) 2000+ is 4A (37+2)
