Apologies for the lengthy post, but thought found this to be interesting. Last night I was scrolling through Tiktok, procrastinating on some homework, and came across a video about NCAA Basketball champions, and how they all fall under certain criteria, and I was curious as to how something like that can be applied to our state tournament. This is what I came up with:
All State Champions but 4, (since 2015) have fallen under at least 3 of the 4 following criteria:
- Taken 2nd or better at respective Semi-State
- Ranked in the Indianamat Final State Top 5 Rankings
- A returning Qualifier
- Wrestles for a team with multiple qualifiers in the same season
The 4 wrestlers who broke this trend? -Asa Garcia (106) in 2016
- 2nd or Better in SS? Y (1st)
- Top 5? N (Ranked 8th)
- Returning? N (Freshman)
- Team with multiple Qualifiers? Y (Avon)
- Eli Stock (170) in 2017
- 2nd or Better in SS? Y (1st)
- Top 5? N (Ranked 18th)
- Returning? N (Senior)
- Team with multiple Qualifiers? Y (Monrovia)
- Ashton Jackson (106) in 2021
- 2nd or Better in SS? Y (1st)
- Top 5? N (Ranked 7th)
- Returning? N (Sophomore)
- Team with multiple Qualifiers? Y (La Porte)
- Marshall Fishback (285) in 2022
- 2nd or Better in SS? Y (1st)
- Top 5? N (Ranked 10th)
- Returning? N (Senior)
- Team with multiple Qualifiers? Y (Rochester Community)
Knowing the criteria, who are the contenders this year? (* = 4/4)
106
Jones*
Boyd
Schoettle
113
Bollinger*
Dickman*
Rioux*
Lewis
120
Jendreas*
LaRocca*
Ash
126
Schaefer*
Reynolds
Rioux
Butt
Rowles
Hawkins
132
Thrine*
Goss*
Hockaday*
Sessa
Bradley
DeMarco
138
Leavell*
Wood*
Ison*
Shephard
Whitehead
Thornton
144
Arberry*
Courtney*
Doster*
Huyvaert
Hagewood
Walker
Reynolds
Graham
150
Krejsa*
Harper*
May*
Bohn
Getz
Jett
157
Betz*
Brabender*
Pellot*
Cashman II*
Stits
165
Meyers*
Rinehart*
Beck
Roudebush
175
Emerine*
Costello*
Leech*
Clouser*
190
Henry*
Penola*
McConnell*
Weaver*
Bisping
215
Clark*
Martin*
Brewer
Woodall
Weingart
285
Clark*
Beck*
Johnson*
Smith (Ind. Cath.)
Hastings
Some Things to note about this data:
- 94.29% (66/70) of Wrestlers that fell under this criteria won on Friday night this year
- All but 1 wrestler with all 4 of the criteria won on Friday night
Now does someone really need all this criteria to be a state champion? Definitely not. If we could predict every champion using this, the tournament wouldn't be as great as it is. These 'contenders' are not the end all be all, but it's a decent place to start if you're looking to pick your state champion. I'll be continuing to keep track of this as the tournament goes on, and see how this list of criteria plays out. Would love to hear everyone's thoughts on this as well. Thanks for reading!