State Champion Theory/Criteria

[pauliemaldo]

Apologies for the lengthy post, but thought found this to be interesting. Last night I was scrolling through Tiktok, procrastinating on some homework, and came across a video about NCAA Basketball champions, and how they all fall under certain criteria, and I was curious as to how something like that can be applied to our state tournament. This is what I came up with: 

 

All State Champions but 4, (since 2015) have fallen under at least 3 of the 4 following criteria: 
- Taken 2nd or better at respective Semi-State
- Ranked in the Indianamat Final State Top 5 Rankings
- A returning Qualifier
- Wrestles for a team with multiple qualifiers in the same season 

 

The 4 wrestlers who broke this trend? 
-Asa Garcia (106) in 2016
         - 2nd or Better in SS? Y (1st)
         - Top 5? N (Ranked 8th)
         - Returning? N (Freshman)
         - Team with multiple Qualifiers? Y (Avon) 

- Eli Stock (170) in 2017 
         - 2nd or Better in SS? Y (1st)
         - Top 5? N (Ranked 18th)
         - Returning? N (Senior)
         - Team with multiple Qualifiers? Y (Monrovia) 

- Ashton Jackson (106) in 2021
         - 2nd or Better in SS? Y (1st)
         - Top 5? N (Ranked 7th)
         - Returning? N (Sophomore)
         - Team with multiple Qualifiers? Y (La Porte) 

- Marshall Fishback (285) in 2022
         - 2nd or Better in SS? Y (1st)
         - Top 5? N (Ranked 10th)
         - Returning? N (Senior)
         - Team with multiple Qualifiers? Y (Rochester Community)

 

Knowing the criteria, who are the contenders this year? (* = 4/4)

106

Jones*

Boyd 

Schoettle

 

113

Bollinger*

Dickman*

Rioux*

Lewis

 

120

Jendreas*

LaRocca*

Ash

 

126

Schaefer*

Reynolds

Rioux

Butt

Rowles

Hawkins

 

132

Thrine*

Goss*

Hockaday*

Sessa

Bradley

DeMarco

 

138

Leavell*

Wood*

Ison*

Shephard

Whitehead

Thornton

 

144

Arberry*

Courtney*

Doster*

Huyvaert

Hagewood

Walker

Reynolds

Graham

 

150

Krejsa*

Harper*

May*

Bohn

Getz

Jett

 

157

Betz*

Brabender*

Pellot*

Cashman II*

Stits

 

165

Meyers*

Rinehart*

Beck

Roudebush

 

175

Emerine* 

Costello*

Leech*

Clouser* 

 

190

Henry*

Penola*

McConnell*

Weaver*

Bisping

 

215

Clark*

Martin*

Brewer

Woodall

Weingart

 

285

Clark*

Beck*

Johnson*

Smith (Ind. Cath.)

Hastings 

 

Some Things to note about this data: 

- 94.29% (66/70) of Wrestlers that fell under this criteria won on Friday night this year

- All but 1 wrestler with all 4 of the criteria won on Friday night

 

Now does someone really need all this criteria to be a state champion? Definitely not. If we could predict every champion using this, the tournament wouldn't be as great as it is. These 'contenders' are not the end all be all, but it's a decent place to start if you're looking to pick your state champion. I'll be continuing to keep track of this as the tournament goes on, and see how this list of criteria plays out. Would love to hear everyone's thoughts on this as well. Thanks for reading! 

[pauliemaldo]

FIXES + UPDATE : 

When you do all this by hand, you're bound to miss some guys. Luckily, I just missed one. 

Waylon Cressell (165) of Warren Central meets 3/4 criteria: 

   -1st at New Castle SS 

   -Ranked 2

   - Warren Central has 6 Qualifiers 

   - State Champion in ND

 

So after semi finals, we are left with only 2 wrestlers out of the 28 wrestling in the finals tonight that failed to meet the 3/4 criteria. 

 

Ty Henderson (120) of Evansville Mater Dei 

   - Ranked 3rd

   - Placed 3rd at Evansville SS

   - EMD Qualified 4 this year 

   - NOT a returning qualifier (Junior)

 

Brandon Johnson (215) of Lawrence North

   - Ranked 6th

   - Placed 3rd at New Castle SS

   - Lawrence North qualified 3 this year

   - Returning qualifier (6th - 2023) 

 

I'm definitely pulling for these two guys to break the trend and bring home titles. Good luck to everyone competing tonight!