2023 IHSAA State Finals Breakdown and Predictions

[TysonNisley]

The postseason is always a very exciting time for wrestling fans. State tournaments, national tournaments, dreams being realized, dreams being shattered, all within the span of a grueling and highly competitive month of combat, riddled with electric performances from both the top wrestlers in the country and the underdogs that defy all expectations. The IHSAA State Finals is an especially exciting tournament for wrestling fans, given its brutal nature and lack of proper seeding (which despite the insane Friday night matchups and ridiculous ticket round matchups that light audiences on fire, should be fixed for the sake of those deserving of spots in the State Finals). But let’s save all of that for another time: the brackets are out, the draws are made, and the State Finals will proceed unchanged.

 

With so much to break down in each weight class, I’d like to keep this introduction section short, especially since a lot of fun statistics that I would otherwise include in this section are usually highlighted later in different articles. For this write-up, I debated whether I should predict the top 8, or just the top 4, and I’ve decided to go with the latter, since finding an order for the top 8 wrestlers in each weight class is an insane amount of work, and as a college student simultaneously preparing for a chance to compete at the NCAA Championships, I really can’t afford to spend an excessive amount of time into this article (although there will still be several hours put into this). To make up for this, however, I will be including separate sections within each weight class to make the write-up a little more interesting, with separate analyses of the most brutal Friday night matchups (which I am defining as a matchup between two top 8 ranked opponents), and a sleeper pick in each weight class that I think will make it much further than they are ranked or predicted to make it. I also want to refrain from picking a full top 8, because I need to improve my spot in the pick ‘ems race, and I can’t sit here and give away all of the right predictions. I hope you all understand. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the insanity of this year’s state brackets:

 

106:

 

EXTRA DEADLY DEATH DRAW: #1 Layne Horn vs. #4 Nate Rioux

 

Fans won’t have to wait long to watch a finals match level bout go down, when #1 Layne Horn and #4 Nate Rioux hit in the Friday night match (I realize that not all Friday matches happen at night, but I will die before I refer to them as the Friday sessions as anything other than Friday night). Both of these wrestlers are talented freshman that have a chance to win it all this year, with Horn owning a win over #2 Revin Dickman during the preseason, and Rioux coming agonizingly close to claiming a win over Dickman many times this season. I think that Horn, despite the upset loss to #3 Ayden Bollinger, opens as the favorite here. Horn and Rioux wrestled over the summer, where Horn was able to win by an 8-0 major decision. I do think that a result from 8 months ago doesn’t hold nearly as much weight as an in season result, but Horn has also wrestled many other wrestlers in the field, and beaten them handily (aside from Bollinger, who he is 0-2 against in the past year, and Dickman, who he beat, but only 1-0), and while Rioux has shown promise against Dickman during their past couple meetings, these results are likely influenced by the familiarity between the two. Besides their head-to-head matchups, Dickman has proven to be a tier above Rioux, in my opinion, and I think that Horn wins against Rioux because of this. If Rioux does win though, watch out for a title contender. You only need to beat a man once to win a state title.

 

DEATH DRAW: #3 Ayden Bollinger vs. #8 Isaac Campbell

 

How does the #3 ranked wrestler in the state get rewarded by almost majoring the #1 in the state and tech falling the #5 ranked wrestler in the state in an absolutely dominant semi-state run that has catapulted him into the conversation for being the favorite to win it all? In Indiana, you get a top 8 guy Friday night, and #8 Isaac Campbell will most certainly not go down without a fight. Campbell had a tough semi-state, and I don’t necessarily mean this as he wrestled badly, but the 106 semi-state was as brutal as they come, and Campbell gets punished for taking 4th, even though the only “upset” loss that occurred was a loss to #9 Cameron Meier, which per the rankings, is barely an upset. I think that Bollinger will win this match pretty handily, but Campbell is a top 8 guy for a reason, and can very reasonably battle for a day two appearance.

 

UNDERDOG: Cameron Meier

 

I think a lot of people are going to be upset at me for this underdog pick, especially because a great performance from Meier this weekend would end the chance of a very historic state run from #5 Julliana O’Campo, who looks to be Indiana’s very first female state placer. However, Meier won quite dominantly over #8 Isaac Campbell at semi-state, and is peaking at just the right time, while O’Campo was made a little more human in her ticket round match, where Yorktown’s 106 pounder Joey Cline gave her everything she could handle. I think the momentum favors Meier here, and if a Friday night upset happens here, Meier would be favored to make the semis, where he would likely finish 4th, with the top echelon of 106 pounders at this weight likely being a little too much for Meier to handle. Regardless, I think Meier has a realistic shot of placing in the top 4 this weekend.

 

Top 4:

Revin Dickman

Layne Horn

Ayden Bollinger

Cameron Meier

 

I know a lot of people probably think Ayden Bollinger is going to win. He has certainly made a case for himself. But this bracket is interesting, because I feel like we have two different sets of 106 pounders that have battled against each other and distinguished a sort of dominance between themselves, but not against the wrestlers in the other set. Dickman has shown to be the clear favorite against Rioux, and Bollinger has shown to be the favorite against Horn. But what do we make of these wrestlers against each other? It gets a little tricky from here. Horn has beaten both Dickman and Rioux, and Bollinger has beaten Horn, but Dickman has beaten Bollinger FOUR times across three different styles in the past year. I think it’s fair to place Rioux at the bottom of these four, as he has no recent wins against any of these three, but we have a case of Horn beating Dickman, Dickman beating Bollinger, and Bollinger beating Horn. However, I think four wins against one opponent makes Dickman the favorite over Bollinger, and Dickman’s overall resume compared to Bollinger solidifies this pick for me. Now, Horn and Dickman in the finals is a little more interesting, because Horn should open up as the favorite here. However, Horn’s loss against Bollinger gives Dickman a little more value here, and once again, Dickman has had incredible results against some of the best wrestlers in the country this season, and has likely improved significantly since Horn’s win against him at IHPO. Not to imply that Horn hasn’t improved as well, but he will have needed to improve quite a bit since September to compare to Brownsburg’s brutal schedule. So, I think Dickman steals this match back. For the 4th place spot, I’m doubling down on my underdog pick, with Meier making the semis.

 

113:

 

UNDERDOG: Isaac Ash

 

As the 4th place finisher from the Evansville semi-state, #8 Isaac Ash arguably got the best path to the finals out of any of the other Evansville semi-state placers. I think that a finals appearance is possible for Ash, with him being the heavy favorite to make the semis, and facing #5 Charlie Larocca in the semis. Now, at semi-state, Larocca beat Ash VERY handily, walking away with a 19-3 tech fall. However, I think this result was due to an underperformance from Ash and an absolutely dominant performance from Larocca. At regionals, Ash wrestled the top wrestlers in the state much tougher, walking away with a 9-6 loss to #1 Preston Haines and a 5-0 loss to #4 Luke Rioux. I would be shocked if Larocca beat Ash by a bonus point victory again. Expect this semis bout to be close.

 

Top 4:

Gavin Jendreas

Charlie Larocca

Jackson Heaston

Isaac Ash

 

I’ve got a lot of upsets happening here, so bear with me while I try to justify them. Let’s first look at the Saturday morning #1 vs. #2 with Preston Haines and Gavin Jendreas. Haines beat Jendreas earlier this year at team state, with a big move in the third to come back from a deficit. While I don’t say this to take anything away from Haines’s win, Jendreas was wrestling Haines extremely well up until that point, and with Jendreas suffering no losses this season aside from Haines, while Haines has lost multiple matches this season, I think Jendreas is the favorite to win this match. My other upset here is #6 Jackson Heaston over #3 Jalen May. For many of my write-ups, I’ve said good things about Heaston, and would often pick him as an underdog before he cemented himself as one of the best wrestlers in the state. I will be honest, however, I had doubted Heaston in his ticket round match this year against Rioux, and I had chosen him to lose that match. After Heaston’s ticket round win, along with his upset win over #1 Preston Haines in the semis at semi-state, I feel like I have to pick him to make a semis run, and that means a win over May. The other side of the bracket is a little easier to pick, with Larocca being the clear favorite to make the finals, and Ash likely taking 4th. Jendreas and Larocca is a rematch from the Al Smith finals this year, where Jendreas emerged victorious, but with Larocca’s absolutely insane run at the Evansville semi-state, I don’t know if it will be quite as easy for Jendreas. History shows that Jendreas should win this match, but he will need to be on his game to do so.

 

120:

 

UNDERDOG: Logan Bickel

 

#23 Logan Bickel came into semi-state as a 4, taking on returning state placer Lane Gilbert, and being the clear underdog in the match. Not only did Bickel STICK Gilbert, but he did it in dominant fashion, winning the match 7-0 before the fall. Unfortunately for Bickel, the Evansville semi-state is unforgiving, and now he opens up Friday night as a 4 once again. However, Bickel’s draw is most certainly doable, with Bickel avoiding the monster draws in #1 Ashton Jackson and #4 Tanner Tishner. Not to imply that #16 Bryce Doss isn’t a great wrestler by any means, but he is a much more doable matchup than the only current two time state champ in Indiana and the guy that lost to him by one point. Bickel’s Saturday morning matchup isn’t terrible either, with the winner of #5 Neal Mosier and #9 Dominic Brown awaiting him. Bickel realistically has a shot at the semis, if he can wrestle how he did against Gilbert.

 

Top 4:

Ashton Jackson

Jake Hockaday

Tanner Tishner

Neal Mosier

 

Of course I’m going to pick the LaPorte guy, call it LaPorte bias, I don’t care, but I am willing to admit that this will probably be Jackson’s toughest title yet. Ashton will have an absolute gauntlet to run through en route to his third state title, with a meeting against #3 Isaiah Schaefer Saturday morning. I think Schaefer is incredibly good, and it sucks to see that the loser of Jackson and Schaefer will have to settle for fifth, but I think Ashton has been too good to pick an upset here. Jackson will then wrestle Tishner in the semis, who had only lost to him by one point in the Al Smith finals. Despite this result, I think Ashton will win again, and likely more handily than he did at the Al Smith. Given that neither Schaefer or Tishner spoil Ashton’s third consecutive finals appearance, Indiana wrestling fans are rewarded with what is likely the most anticipated match in the entire tournament, with two returning state champions lining up for battle. I think that a lot of people at the beginning of the season felt like Hockaday was the favorite here, and I could understand the rationale, with great off-season results that included a big win over nationally ranked Jayden Raney. However, Hockaday has shown some weakness this season too, losing to Marmion Academy’s Zack Stewart and St. Edwards’s Adam Butler. Now, while these losses were both at one tournament, and it’s reasonable that Hockaday was just having an off day, I still feel like they at least bring Hockaday down to a level that is not unreasonable for Jackson to get the win. In addition, Ashton has been wrestling on fire these past couple of weekend, absolutely destroying #19 Sonny Sessa in the semi-state finals when many thought that Sessa would begin to pull it closer, after an upset over #9 Dominic Brown. In addition, Jackson also had a very solid showing at Super 32, losing only 7-3 to Wyoming Seminary’s Luke Lilledahl, who is quite simply one of the best high school wrestlers in the country, P4P. I think that both wrestlers are reaching their peaks at the right time, and we should all be excited for this matchup to go down. As for the 3rd and 4th place spots, I feel like Tishner will very easily make the semis, and shouldn’t lose to anybody not named Jackson or Hockaday. The last spot is a very interesting one, with a Friday night match between #5 Neal Mosier and #9 Dominic Brown likely determining the 4th place finisher. Brown was one of those more mysterious wrestlers for me this season, being one of those freshmen that had not been tested enough to accurately determine his level. After a series of competitive bouts with Jackson, however, Brown has proven himself to be an incredibly tough draw for anybody. I think that Neil Mosier has wrestled everybody tough as well, and with his previous credentials and impressive hitlist, I’m not ready to predict an upset here. Give be Mosier claiming the 4th place spot at this incredibly competitive weight.

 

126:

 

DEATH DRAW: #3 Evan Seng vs. #8 Cody Rowles

 

It’s really tough when your only losses at semi-state are to a returning 4th placer and a top 6 opponent, and you are punished with a top 3 guy in the Friday night match. #8 Cody Rowles will be climbing an uphill battle to take out #3 Evan Seng in this match, and with Rowles’s losses this season compared to Seng’s, I can’t realistically predict an upset here. Still, look out for this fire Friday night matchup.

 

UNDERDOG: Griffin Ingalls

 

Seeing Ingalls ranked down at 14 feels like a bit of an underrank to me, seeing how his only losses on the season are to #5 Tylin Thrine, #2 Aden Reyes, and Jake Hockaday. WIth his spot in the bracket, however, I think that Ingalls could make a run all the way to the finals if he is on it. In his Friday night match, he faces off against #16 Guillermo Rivera, where he opens up as a slight favorite. His quarterfinals match is against #4 Keegan Schlabach, who is a significantly tougher opponent for Ingalls on paper, but once again, I think Ingalls might be slightly underranked, and both wrestlers have similar state experience, with only one state qualification from each of them. Lastly, in the semis, Ingalls will have the winner of Reyes and #3 Evan Seng. Ingalls lost 7-2 to Reyes, which is by all means a pretty good result for Reyes, but with Reyes losing to Thrine at semi-state, the momentum may not be on his side here, especially since a meeting between Ingalls and Reyes in the semis would mean that Ingalls would be coming off of a major upset, potentially giving him the steam he needs to make the finals.

 

Top 4:

Logan Frazier

Evan Seng

Tylin Thrine

Keegan Schlabach

 

Despite a lot of discussion in the first three weights concerning who will walk away with a state championship, I think that this is the first weight class that I would consider a lock, with #1 Logan Frazier absolutely dominating every wrestler from Indiana that he wrestles. I pick Evan Seng to upset Reyes in the quarterfinals and meet Frazier in the finals, but their last meeting resulted in a 13-3 major decision for Frazier, so I think that even a significantly better performance from Seng wouldn’t be enough to pull the upset. I’m picking Seng to make the finals because he’s had a very good season, aside from a 3-1 loss to Reyes, but the momentum favors Seng here, and with two 5th place finishes at the state tournament, I would have to imagine that he’s sick of losing in the quarterfinals at state. As for the other two placers, I think that Schlabach beats Ingalls in a much closer match than the rankings imply, before falling to the 3rd place match, where Thrine is the favorite to meet Schlabach here. There is also a version of this bracket where seasoned senior and 4x state qualifier #10 Hayden Brady meets Schlabach in the third place match, which would be their third meeting of the year, and I would honestly love for this to happen. I’m a big fan of Brady, and with him drawing on Frazier’s side of the bracket, there’s not much room for his placement at state to improve, but a win over Thrine sets him up nicely to avenge a pair of losses for his last high school match. I still think Thrine has been too good to count him out here, but let’s see how well the freshman can handle the pressure of Gainbridge.

 

132:

 

UNDERDOG: Keaton Morton

 

I might as well put the entire weight class into this category. With so many talented wrestlers announcing themselves as title contenders this year, it’s extremely difficult to pick one out that stands out among the rest. But looking at brackets, past losses, past wins, past victories, and more stuff of that nature, I think that #12 Keaton Morton has incredible potential to make a run in this weight class. He unfortunately has a tough Friday night draw against #5 David Maldonado, but Morton has results that indicate that he could win this match. To start, Morton has wrestled the #1, #2, and #3 in this weight class, and kept it competitive with all of these wrestlers, even coming as close as a 9-7 loss to #1 Kyrel Leavell. While a couple of “worse” losses to other wrestlers in the field keep him ranked low, I think that Morton still has a small chance to win a title at this weight class, if he can withstand the gauntlet that he has to go through to win, which, per the rankings, includes #5 David Maldonado, #7 Easton Doster, #2 Joey Buttler, and #1 Kyrel Leavell. If you think for a second that a ranking is going to save anybody in this weight class, you are WRONG.

 

Top 4:

Joey Buttler

Kyrel Leavell

Brady Ison

Easton Doster

 

The first notable match I want to talk about in this absolutely insane weight class is the Saturday morning matchup against #3 Brady Ison and #4 Zar Walker. Walker, aside from a loss from #11 Hayden Demarco, has been perfect this season, and dominated his way to a semi-state title last weekend. With this performance, many might want to pick him over Ison, but Ison himself has had a lot of great moments this season, and despite only a Friday night finish last year, has always had the potential to make a finals run. Ison meets Walker early on Saturday due to a loss to Joey Buttler, a result that I don’t foresee Ison reversing, but I think that Ison could very well meet him in the finals for a match that has been happening since the regional tournament. I’ll give Ison the nod against Walker, but returning state champion Kyrel Leavell is a different story. Leavell is an interesting wrestler in this weight class, because while he opens up as the favorite here, he hasn’t wrestled many of the top wrestlers in this weight class this season, making his level relative to the rest of the field unknown. I think that Buttler has wrestled great all season, and a win over Leavell is reasonable here, especially with their past results, where they wrestled at both Freestyle State and Greco State, which resulted in a 13-13 criteria win for Leavell in Freestyle, and a 10-0 win for Buttler in Greco. Yeah yeah yeah, different styles, whatever, but a match is a match, and these matchups still certainly remain in both of their heads, and these wins, even in different styles, prove to both wrestlers that the other one can bleed. Get ready for an electric finals match between these two. The wrestler meeting Ison for the 3rd place match will likely be #7 Easton Doster, in my opinion. He will have to beat the winner of Maldonado and Morton, and while he will be a slight underdog if Maldonado meets him Saturday morning, I think that Doster is a highly underrated wrestler that made waves this off-season, coming close to All-American status at Fargo this off-season, and I really think that he has what it takes to halt the relentless pace that Maldonado pressures his opponents with. There is lots of great wrestling that is going to take place at this weight, and every match will be a high level match worth the price of admission.

 

138:

 

DEATH DRAW: #1 Cole Solomey vs. #8 Branson Weaver

 

Branson Weaver placed 4th at last year’s regional tournament, and was majored in his first round match at semi-state. Since then, he’s wrestled at 15 off-season tournaments and compiled a Trackwrestling record of 89-23. That’s a lot of matches. However, the hard work has paid off for Weaver with an appearance at the state tournament. Unfortunately for him, he steps on the mat against Cole Solomey, the returning state runner-up from this weight class. I think that Solomey opens up as a huge favorite here, but Weaver is clearly ready for the test.

 

DEATH DRAW: #2 Cheaney Schoeff vs. #7 Wesley Harper

 

Not only does the #1 in the state face a death draw Friday night, but #2 Cheaney Schoeff does so as well, with Wesley Harper pulling him Friday night. Harper has had some nice results this season, such as a win over #15 (at 132) Josh Johnson at Al Smith and a slim 3-1 loss to #5 Jeffrey Huyvaert, but a minor slip up against #11 Lucas Clement puts him in a tough spot to place, as Schoeff has conversely been dominating everybody that he has wrestled, and in my opinion, should be considered the favorite to win the tournament. Harper can wrestle against guys of this caliber, but I have a tough time thinking an upset is possible here with the level that Schoeff has been wrestling at.

 

UNDERDOG: Kelby Glenn

 

The thing about #12 Kelby Glenn as an underdog here is that he doesn’t have to beat anybody better than #3 Parker Reynolds (who he upset in the ticket round) to make a finals appearance. Unfortunately for him, he is drawing into superfreshman Jeffrey Huyvaert, making a Saturday appearance difficult for him, but Glenn has shown that he can compete at this level, and taking out Huyvaert would set him up nicely for a finals run, as Huyvaert would be his toughest match that he would have en route to the center mat Saturday night. I think that Glenn has been consistently good, and a win against Huyvaert is not improbable, in my opinion.

 

Top 4:

Cheaney Schoeff

Jeffrey Huyvaert

Cole Solomey

Reese Courtney

 

Solomey and Schoeff happening in the semis is really tough, meaning that one of these two seniors are going to miss out on their chance to wrestle under the lights, which is especially tough seeing how both of them have made it there before. I think Solomey did a great job turning around his regionals performance with a 6-1 decision over Huyvaert in the semi-state finals. But man, Schoeff absolutely tore his way through the Evansville semi-state, sticking Branson Weaver and TECH FALLING #9 Reese Courtney in the semi-state finals, a result I find absolutely ridiculous given how good Courtney is. This match will be possibly the most exciting semis match on Saturday, with both seniors having everything to lose. I think the momentum just slightly favors Schoeff, but the winner of this match will likely win the tourney. Huyvaert, on the other side of the bracket, faces off against #6 Michael Major in the Saturday morning match. Major and Huyvaert wrestled last at Freestyle and Greco state, where they traded tech falls, Huyvaert in Freestyle, and Major in Greco. Of course, results in different styles shouldn't be considered as strongly, but these results at least establish a sort of familiarity between the two. I should say, though, that nobody in the entire state of Indiana is improving as fast as Huyvaert, and I think that a finals appearance is inevitable for the freshman. Lastly, Reese Courtney and #4 Tony Wood face off Saturday morning for a chance to wrestle in the semis. Wood is favored here per the rankings, but aside from a tough semi-state finals match from Courtney, he has wrestled quite impressively all year, winning an Al Smith title and stunning Parker Reynolds at regionals. Wood has been consistent this year, but none of his wins are quite as high caliber as Courtney’s best wins. I think that the ceiling’s the limit for Wood, and I might be underrating him a bit here, but I’ve also just always felt like Courtney was an underdog to make deep runs in tournaments where he’s not necessarily supposed to, so we’ll see what happens there. After looking at this weight a couple of times, I think that this weight might be one of the most exciting weights in the state tournament, so be prepared for insanity.

 

145:

 

DEATH DRAW: #3 Wyatt Krejsa vs. #4 Jack Todd

 

This is by all means, an extra deadly death draw, with a #3 and #4 stepping up to battle on Friday night. However, Krejsa has been so incredibly impressive this past year that I can’t really help but name Krejsa as a clear favorite. Todd is coming off of a tough semi-state performance, and unfortunately gets punished hard for his performance, but regardless of the momentum coming in from the side of Krejsa, Todd is clearly no easy out, and a title contender at this weight can very easily be stopped early.

 

UNDERDOG: Braxton Miller

 

#17 Braxton Miller announced himself as a top level threat at 145 last weekend when he absolutely dismantled #11 Cameron Clark in the semi-state finals, winning that match 7-1. He is rewarded a decent draw in #19 Jayden Lewis, but will wrestle #7 Brevan Thrine in the quarterfinals. They have two common opponents in #15 Kolten Rhonemus and Cameron Clark, in which Thrine won 6-1 and by fall, respectively, while Miller won 3-1 and 7-1, in the same order. So, Miller seems to not be that far off from Thrine’s level, so it will be interesting to see if Miller can close that gap even more by the time he and Thrine hit in the quarterfinals.

 

Top 4:

Aidan Torres

Anthony Bahl

Wyatt Krejsa

Brevan Thrine

 

#1 Aidan Torres is looking to avenge last year’s performance, where he suffered a stunning upset loss to eventual runner-up Rider Searcy. He is in position to win a title this year, with his most difficult opponent before the finals being Brevan Thrine, who I believe will meet him in the semis, although I don’t predict an upset happening there. The more intriguing match to me is #2 Anthony Bahl and #3 Wyatt Krejsa. Krejsa went on an absolute tear through his semi-state, majoring #23 Luke Robards and tech falling surprise semi-state finalist Bradley Owen. Bahl, on the other hand, wrestled a little more conservatively, still picking up an impressive 9-2 win over #5 Wesley Smith, but forfeiting to Torres in the finals. I know a lot of people think Krejsa is going to win this match, and honestly, he makes a good case for it. Krejsa has been nothing but impressive this past year, and the momentum seems to favor him at the moment. However, this match went down last year as well, in the quarterfinals of the 132 pound weight class, and Bahl defeated Krejsa by fall. That’s a hard result to reverse, and even if Krejsa opens up as a slight favorite here, the history between the two makes it difficult for me to predict an upset. Now, Torres and Bahl have yet to wrestle this year, making the prediction for this match a lot harder for me. I would have picked Torres a lot more comfortably before semi-state, but a 9-2 match over Smith, whereas Torres only beat him 4-1 this season, makes this match seem more and more like a coin flip. They did wrestle once this off season, in the Freestyle State Finals, where Torres comfortably won a 10-0 match, but Bahl looks to be pulling closer to Torres. Both of these wrestlers are seniors looking for their first title, and I am super excited to see this match go down.

 

152:

 

UNDERDOG: Silas Stits

 

#6 Silas Stits survives a monster ticket round draw against #5 Evan Roudebush, and is rewarded with a great bracket path to the semis. While his semifinal match is against #1 Bryce Lowery, who is the heavy favorite to win the tournament, Stits is still looking in great shape to place top 4 at his first state tournament. His quarterfinal match is against #7 Beau Brabender, who Stits has defeated 5-2 already earlier this season.

 

Top 4:

Bryce Lowery

Hunter May

Mitchell Betz

Silas Stits

 

Without #2 Anthony Rinehart in the field, we no longer have a nationally ranked matchup to look forward to, but #3 Hunter May and #4 Mitchell Betz are game wrestlers that are arguably at, or at least close to that level, and won’t give Lowery an easy tournament by any means. May and Betz will meet in the semis, for what is one of my favorite semifinal matchups of the whole tournament. Betz and May haven’t wrestled yet this season, but they did wrestle this preseason at IHPO, where May won a 3-2 match, so be prepared for a close one. I think May steals a close one again against Metz to make the finals. As for the finals, May and Lowery HAVE wrestled this season, and, um… it ended in a 10-0 major for Lowery. Lowery is seriously good, and while I think May will likely wrestle a closer match, this tournament is Lowery’s to lose.

 

160:

 

UNDERDOG: Conner Watts

 

#19 Conner Watts is looking to be the second Watts brother to make it under the lights, and with his bracket path, the possibility is small, but certainly doable. His Friday night match is against #15 Ben Shaffer, who has previously beaten him at Al Smith, in a UTB bout, so it might as well be a coin flip. From there, Watts will see #9 Brenton Russell in the quarterfinals. Russell is coming off of a nice semi-state run that included wins over #11 Chase Wagner and #6 Nathan Powell, but I still feel like this match is relatively doable compared to some of the other draws he could’ve gotten. Need I remind you too that Watts is coming off of a great semi-state run himself, in which he defeated #22 Deaglen Peak in the ticket round by tech fall, and then took out red hot freshman #10 Brant Beck in another UTB match (man, Watts sure likes to wrestle). I should also mention that one of Watts’s two potential semifinal opponents, #6 AJ Steenbeke, is a wrestler that he is 1-1 with this season, defeating him 7-5 earlier in the year and losing only 4-3 later on. I know I’ve entertained this underdog pick a lot, but the possibility of a #19 in the state making the finals is super exciting to me, especially when the possibility of it is quite a bit more than 0%.

 

Top 4:

Sam Goin

AJ Steenbeke

Logan Farnell

Conner Watts

 

#1 Sam Goin wins by whatever he wants. Next topic. Three time state qualifier AJ Steenbeke finally looks to break his Friday night curse by getting a favorable draw for the first time in his career. His Saturday morning match is against #5 Luke Kemper, who opens as the slight favorite against Steenbeke. However, Steenbeke had a great semi-state tournament, tech falling Ben Shaffer and losing 5-0 to Goin, which is an accomplishment when it's against Goin, who has an argument to be the P4P best Indiana high schooler, apart from Christian Carroll. Kemper is an impressive wrestler in his own right, taking out #8 Andre Merritt at semi-state with an exciting score late in the period to win 10-7. However, I’ve always felt that despite Steenbeke’s performances at state, he’s been a state placer caliber wrestler even since his freshman year, and if he can get over that Friday night hump, I feel like a weight will be lifted off of his shoulders, and we might get the best version of Steenbeke we’ve ever seen. After the quarterfinal match, I’ve decided to entertain Watts making a deep run, meeting Steenbeke in the semifinals. With how Steenbeke has been wrestling, and having the most recent win between the two, I’m picking Steenbeke to make a finals appearance. Don’t forget about my underdog pick though: if Watts makes the finals, you saw it here first. On the top half of the bracket, #2 Logan Farnell looks to be the likely candidate to move on to the semis, but both #7 Nathan Powell and #13 Michael Hutchinson are tough matches that won’t be an easy out for Farnell. Remember that Hutchinson is only in the bracket because of a dominating upset over #3 Jeb Prechtel in the ticket round, and can wrestle guys at that level. I almost want to pick Hutchinson to make the semis, but with Farnell regaining his dominance in the Fort Wayne semi-state after an upset loss to #10 Brant Beck, I think he’ll pull through and face Goin in the semis. The results are a little more predictable from here on out, with Goin likely beating Steenbeke, and Farnell likely beating Watts, in two separate semi-state finals rematches.

 

170:

 

UNDERDOG: Anthony Cashman

 

#8 Anthony Cashman is coming off of a semi-state runner up performance, and gets a nice path to the semis, being favored heavily in his Friday night match and opening as the slight underdog in his Saturday morning bout. #7 Duke Myers and Cashman haven’t wrestled any time recently, so there isn’t a whole lot to go off of in terms of predictions. They have a good number of common opponents, but the results are so similar that it’s hard to even use those. Regardless, Cashman can definitely win in the semis here, and have his first top 4 state placement.

 

Top 4:

Delaney Ruhlman

Cody Goodwin

Kyle Harden

Duke Myers

 

I hate to stay on the same two wrestlers for even longer and bore you all, but I actually have to make a prediction for Myers and Cashman, instead of playing the hypothetical “if this, if that” game. The only opponent between the two that might indicate a favorite in this matchup is #4 Kyle Harden, who has only beaten Myers 1-0, but has beaten Cashman quite a bit more handily, with a fall early in the season and a 10-4 decision in the semi-state finals. It’s not much, and wrestling math sometimes (all the time) doesn’t add up, but I think Myers will win by a very small margin here. #2 Cody Goodwin and #3 Noah Clouser hit in the quarterfinals, in an unfortunate draw for Clouser. I think Goodwin and Ruhlman are a tier above the rest in this field, and I don’t think that Clouser will be able to pull the upset here. In another unfortunate quarterfinal matchup, Ruhlman takes on #5 Aidan Costello, who gave Goodwin everything he could handle at semi-state, but now has an even bigger hump to get over if he wants to place top 4. Costello is extremely talented, and could certainly place higher with a better bracket, but Ruhlman has barely been challenged this year, and I expect this dominance to continue. Harden should cruise to the semis pretty easily to meet Goodwin in the finals, and likewise, Myers should see Ruhlman in the semis, where both Goodwin and Ruhlman should win to wrestle under the lights. Goodwin has a really high skill ceiling, in my opinion, coming agonizingly close to taking out eventual state champ J Conway last year, but Ruhlman has also gotten substantially better than last year, making this prediction a lot trickier for me to make. Goodwin unfortunately did not wrestle at Al Smith this year, meaning that this will be their first and only meeting of the year. I feel like Goodwin’s match against Costello shows that he is a little more beatable than Ruhlman this time around, so in a razor thin match, I expect Ruhlman to finally pull through in his third appearance under the lights to win a title.

 

182:

 

UNDERDOG: Julian Weems

 

I feel like Weems has hit a couple of bumps this season that maybe tarnish his record and his ranking, but don’t let this distract you from the fact that he is one of best wrestlers in the field. He faces a tough Friday night draw in #4 Hunter Page, but I don’t think this is an easy out by any means for Page. If Weems can find his footing for this tournament, I think he can make a deep run.

 

Top 4:

Orlando Cruz

De’Alcapon Veazy

Caden Brewer

Luke Penola

 

In one of two nationally ranked matchups of the tournament, #1 Orlando Cruz and #2 De’Alcapon Veazy clash in an Al Smith rematch, where Cruz ran away with a 3-2 decision to maintain his #1 spot. Both wrestlers are almost locks to make the finals, with each wrestler making insane runs through their respective parts of the state. In 10 matches, Cruz has gotten eight tech falls and two falls during his postseason run, while Veazy has stuck 7 out of 9 opponents, with two major decisions in his postseason run. This match is a clash between two outstanding wrestlers, and should be one of the premier matchups of the tournament. #6 Caden Brewer has been on a tear of his own, sticking Julian Weems in both the regional and semi-state finals, along with a commanding 12-5 victory over #9 Bray Emerine in the semis of semi-state. He matches up against #3 Evan Tilton, who took his lone loss of the season thus far in the semis of his semi-state against #7 Mike Durham. I think that one loss shouldn’t entirely reflect the outcome of this matchup, but at the same time, Brewer has been way too dominant for me to pick against him here. I expect Brewer to give Veazy a challenge in the semis. As for the bottom of the bracket, #4 Hunter Page and #5 Luke Penola will likely face off for a spot in the top 4. Penola has a lot of great wins this season, including Brewer, who I have taking 3rd, and has only lost to Cruz 7-3 this season (along with an out of season loss 4-3 to a Union County wrestler). Page also has a single in-state loss on the season, which was in the semis at semi-state, losing to #8 Kaden Lone 7-4. Lone is obviously a tough wrestler, but was defeated 14-4 earlier this season by Penola, indicating that Penola might be the favorite here, despite being the lower ranked wrestler. I won’t talk too much more about the 1st place match at this weight, because I think the match will just have to speak for itself, but Brewer and Penola for 3rd should be interesting, with Penola owning a win by fall against Brewer earlier this season. Despite this result, I think that Brewer has what it takes to reverse this result. There most certainly won’t be a fall this time around.

 

195:

 

EXTRA DEADLY DEATH DRAW: #5 Christian Chavez vs. #7 Kaden McConnell

 

The East Chicago semi-state was spared no luck when these brackets were made, with Bazle Owens drawing #3 Reid Schroeder, #11 Neil Johnson drawing #1 John Purdy, Donovan Blair drawing #2 Gunner Henry, and #5 Christian Chavez drawing #7 Kaden McConnell. Chavez’s and McConnell’s rankings may not suggest that this draw is extra deadly, but if you consider that McConnell took out Henry in the regional finals, and Chavez beat McConnell in the Al Smith finals, and just the fact that an Al Smith finals match is happening Friday night, and if the fact that Chavez is a senior that is 40-0 on the season, then maybe you can understand how brutal this matchup is. Oh, and their finals match at Al Smith went into OVERTIME. The fact that this match is happening so soon is tough for both wrestlers, and I honestly don’t know who to pick here. I can’t even knock McConnell for placing 4th at his semi-state, with the #1, #2, and #3 all coming out of his semi-state as well, all of which are ranked ahead of Christian Chavez. That being said, Chavez does have the head to head win, and being the more seasoned wrestler here with one state tournament appearance to zero, I think Chavez will pull through and win the match again. Absolutely disgusting draw for McConnell who did nothing wrong but lose to the top 2 wrestlers in the state…

 

UNDERDOG: Kaden McConnell

 

…buttttttt if McConnell pulls through and wins his death draw matchup, then he is absolutely an immediate title contender. McConnell will have to take on #3 Reid Schroeder, who pulled a double upset last weekend by beating both Gunner Henry and John Purdy. While McConnell subsequently lost to both of these wrestlers last weekend, he does have the win over Henry, and a more dominant win at that, with a 5-2 decision compared to a 10-8 win by Schroeder. Once again, wrestling math is usually faulty, but it at least explores the possibility of McConnell making the upset happen. And, if it does happen, McConnell will likely take on Purdy, who only beat him 2-1 in the semis of semi-state, so there’s no reason to think that McConnell can’t take that match too.

 

Reid Schroeder

John Purdy

Gunner Henry

Christian Chavez

 

You know, when you make one upset over a higher ranked opponent, there’s a lot of things that could mean. Maybe you just got lucky, maybe your opponent was sick that day, and perhaps the next time you wrestle that guy, things won’t be the same. But when you upset TWO higher ranked opponents, and more specifically, the TOP TWO ranked opponents in the state, maybe that’s an indication of something else. Maybe you’re just the better wrestler. I think that Reid Schroeder has what it takes to double down on his semi-state performance and win the whole thing. A big part in that is also the fact that John Purdy, Gunner Henry, and #4 Luke Hansen are all on one side of the bracket, making the winner of Christian Chavez and Kaden McConnell his most likely semifinal match. Both of these wrestlers are capable of taking out Schroeder, but just don’t feel like Schroeder’s semi-state performance was a fluke. If he wrestles like he did at semi-state, he should make the finals. Purdy and Hansen is a disgusting quarterfinals match, with only one loss between the two of them. Hansen is undefeated on the year, but hasn’t wrestled anybody in the top 8 yet this year, and narrowly defeated the #9 ranked wrestler in Wyatt Woodall at semi-state, taking the match 5-3. I don’t say this to diminish Hansen’s #4 rank, or his capabilities as a wrestler, but being the lowest returning placer out of the four in this weight, along with Purdy just being really good, I think Purdy will survive the quarterfinals and move on to face Gunner Henry, which, is also really tough. Interestingly enough, Purdy and Henry haven’t wrestled yet this season, and with both losing to Schroeder at semi-state. I think that Purdy is the slight favorite here, but there are quite a few statistics I could name here to try to sway you all one way or the other. Henry has lost twice this postseason, while Purdy has only lost once, but Schroeder’s win over Purdy was by a larger margin than his win over Henry. Additionally, Purdy is a returning 195 lber, while Henry was 182 last year. But Henry’s highest placement at state is higher than Purdy’s highest placement. Do you see how this gets difficult? I’m not going to try to rationalize this to myself anymore; I’m picking the higher ranked wrestler to win, and if that doesn’t happen, I blame the rankers (not actually, you all do a great job).

 

220:

 

DEATH DRAW: #5 Keegan Martin vs. #7 Devin Kendrex

 

This matchup has happened twice in the past year, with Kendrex owning both wins, despite being the lower ranked wrestler in this matchup. Kendrex’s upset loss against #10 Brandon Johnson puts him on the significantly harder side of the bracket, with his lowest ranked opponent (if he hypothetically makes it to the finals) happening under the lights. Martin enters this tournament as a semi-state 3rd placer, although his is from an unfortunate semi-state matchup in the semifinals against #2 Brady Beck. I think Martin has the momentum going into this matchup, but Kendrex has previous wins over several wrestlers in the field, including Martin and #3 Tommy Morrill, and the experience aspect of this matchup favors Kendrex, but as you will see, this is just one match out of many in the most chaotic bracket of the tournament.

 

EXTRA DEADLY DEATH DRAW: #2 Brady Beck vs. #4 Austin Hastings

 

Both Beck and Hastings fall victim to insane underdog runs to meet up in the Friday night match in only one of four top 4 Friday night matchups. Beck leads the series 2-0 this season, with a 9-6 win and 3-1 overtime victory, meaning that while this match favors Beck, it is going to be fiercely competitive. I don’t really have a whole lot to say about this match, it’s gonna be good, it’s gonna be brutal, and like the previous ticket round match, the winner of this match is going to be rewarded with an equally brutal series of matches to make the finals.

 

UNDERDOG(S): Julante Hinton and Brandon Johnson

 

I really wanted to choose two underdogs here just to highlight the incredible semi-state runs made by both of them. #12 Julante Hinton unsurprisingly made the finals, but stunned the New Haven semi-state by beating returning state placer Brady Beck in order to win his first semi-state title. #10 Brandon Johnson fought back from a little more adversity, taking 3rd place at his regional before tearing his way through the New Castle semi-state, beating Austin Hastings in a devastating 9-2 victory, and taking out Devin Kendrex in overtime. Both of these wrestlers were rewarded heavily for their wins, being placed on the much less loaded half of the bracket, and each having a realistic shot to make a finals appearance. If they both manage to win their quarterfinal matches, they will meet up in the semis, and we’ll get to see who the more red hot wrestler is.

 

Top 4:

Will Clark

Julante Hinton

Tommy Morrill

Brandon Johnson

 

This is one of the most chaotic, absolutely brutal, completely nonsensical brackets I have ever seen. On the top half of the bracket, you have the #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, and #7, only two of which will place top 4 and only one of which will make the finals. On the bottom half of the bracket, the highest ranked wrestler is #8, with a couple of red hot wrestlers coming off of insane underdog performances. Let’s talk about the top half first. #3 Tommy Morrill should easily make it out of his Friday night match, where the winner of Martin and Kendrex will take him on. #1 Will Clark should also very easily make it out of the Friday night match, where he will likely take on #2 Brady Beck for a #1 vs. #2 on Saturday morning. Despite being a #1 vs. #2 matchup, I think that Clark is the overwhelming favorite against anybody in this weight class, and he should win the whole tournament if he wrestles well. As for Tommy Morrill, he was taken into overtime earlier this season against Devin Kendrex, and given that Kendrex repeats his previous performances against Martin, we should see this Al Smith semis rematch go down in the quarters, where Morrill opens up as the favorite, due to his previous win over Kendrex and his semi-state title. If Morrill makes the semis, he will face Clark, who defeated him quite dominantly earlier this year in the Al Smith finals, and should be expected to do it again. Now, for the bottom half of the bracket, we have many equally as interesting matchups, not because they are higher ranked matchups, but quite the opposite, as there is a realistic chance for many lower ranked wrestlers in the field to earn a spot under the lights. The favorite to do so is #8 Nate Johnson, who took 3rd at his semi-state after surviving a ticket round death draw against #9 Eli Hinshaw, before losing 5-0 to Tommy Morrill. He will open his Saturday morning against Julante Hinton, who is ranked lower, but has a ton of momentum going into the match, and quite honestly, is a quite unpredictable pick in this weight class. I’m still not sure whether to regard his win against Beck as a fluke, but I’m choosing Hinton to go all the way, and I’m doubling down with this pick in my pick ‘ems, so let’s hope for my own sake that the miracle run continues. The other quarterfinals match happening here is Brandon Johnson vs. #11 Alex Rose. Rose, by all means, is likely the favorite here, having previous state experience, battling Morrill tightly at semi-state with only a 3-1 loss in the semi-state finals, and having an overall more solid resume than Johnson. However, Johnson has proven himself to be incredibly dangerous, and likewise to Hinton, unpredictable. If I’m going to be completely honest, I just want to see these underdog runs continue, and if I pick them to make it far, I’m actualizing these results and effectively making them happen, in some sort of way. Does that make sense? No? Neither does this weight class, so don’t bother trying to wrestle with the logic to make your picks. Close your eyes, throw a dart, and pick who it lands on. You’ll be right about 50% of the time.

 

285:

 

EXTRA DEADLY DEATH DRAW: #1 Leighton Jones vs. #4 Anthony Popi

 

Leighton Jones has never had it easy at state. The nationally ranked senior opens his final state tournament against #4 Anthony Popi. An absolutely brutal draw for Popi, who suffered an upset in the 3rd place match at regionals to #13 Jordan Cree, but an even more brutal draw for Jones, who has historically been unlucky at the state tournament. Leighton Jones has still had an amazing year thus far, placing at the Walsh Ironman, and beating #2 Paul Clark in two separate matches, both of which indicated that Jones should be the heavy favorite to win a title this year. Still, you hate to see a top 4 opponent go early, and it makes me really nervous for Jones, who has been good enough to win a title for years now.

 

UNDERDOG: Dom Burgett

 

#12 Dom Burgett has produced incredible results for a while now, but due to an upset loss in the first round of semi-state last year, I feel like he has gone a little bit under the radar. However, despite a tough ticket round draw against the same wrestler that had eliminated him the year prior in #6 Hunter Branham, Burgett is proving to be a title contender this year with a New Castle semi-state title. Now, in his final state run, he gets to avoid both Paul Clark and Leighton Jones en route to the finals, and if you ask me, I think he can get it done this year. Before you criticize me for thinking the #12 in the state can win a title against a field of not one, but TWO nationally ranked competitors, just remember how the state finals at heavyweight went last year.

 

Top 4:

Dom Burgett

Leighton Jones

Paul Clark

Kelton Farmer

 

I can hear all of the Brownsburg wrestling fans screaming at me for making such a prediction and jinxing Leighton Jones as he prepares for a final run for the state title. And to that I say, I’m sorry, and I think Leighton Jones is an incredible heavyweight, and he is likely the most talented heavyweight in the field. However, it always seems like the rest of the field starts to pull closer towards Jones as the season progresses, and I should add that the only meeting between Jones and Burgett this year resulted in a 3-1 loss for Jones. Additionally, Jones has taken a loss to #3 Hosia Smith this year, which should seem irrelevant, especially given that Smith is no longer in the tournament due to an upset by Smith (a different Smith, from Zionsville, who also went and made the freaking semi-state finals), but to me, it shows that Jones is beatable. Funnily enough, I would argue that Burgett has the best chance out of anyone in this bracket to beat Jones, as Jones has beaten Paul Clark a bit more handily than he did Burgett. Speaking of Clark, Jones and Clark hit in the semis for our second nationally ranked matchup of the tournament. With a 5-1 and 10-4 win against Clark at the Walsh Ironman and Team State Duals respectively, I don’t see this result getting reversed, and Jones should make the finals. What does Burgett’s path look like though? His Saturday morning matchup will be the winner of #10 Aramis McNutt and #16 Tyler Schott, two wrestlers that are likely better than their rankings indicate, similarly to Burgett. I think Burgett should get through whichever wrestler he gets in the quarters, where he’ll face the winner of #5 Kelton Farmer and #7 Titus Waters. Farmer’s and Waters’s results are not very comparable, but Farmer has been to the show twice, while this is Waters’s first trip, and Farmer is overall the stronger wrestler in terms of resume, so I won’t try to get too tricky here and predict this upset. Burgett, however, has a much stronger resume, and wrestled Leighton Jones this season a lot better than Farmer, who lost by fall as opposed to Burgett’s 3-1 loss. I might be twisting some logic a little bit here to convince myself that Burgett will win, but I just want to be the one to make a bold pick and get it correct, so don’t judge me for that.

 

And with heavyweight done, I’ve finished breaking down every weight class. There are plenty more storylines I could have talked about here, but I’m currently bleeding onto my 18th page in this document, and think that I’ve said enough. Thank you all for reading my stuff this season, and I can’t wait to break down more big tournaments and do my part in keeping Indiana wrestling exciting. I’ll stop focusing on the high school season for now, and focus on my own season, but I will return when the time comes for me to share my superior wrestling knowledge (self-proclaimed) with the rest of the state. Once again, thanks everybody.

Edited February 17, 2023 by TysonNisley

[TysonNisley]

As always, let me know if I've made any statistical or spelling errors so I can correct them.

[David m]

I got Maldonado all the way. Looked good out there, could see him taking out butler in the semis

[HSE]

Dom in the semi's