Genius Ratings 2024

[maligned]

Below are Genius Ratings for all schools in Indiana, based on their performance for the entire season prior to sectional.  THESE RATINGS ARE STRICTLY FOR ENTERTAINMENT AND ARE NOT USED TO DETERMINE WHO QUALIFIES FOR TEAM STATE.

 

These ratings use algorithms similar to the baseline algorithms used to establish sports point spreads in Las Vegas.

 

POTENTIAL is based strictly on point differential earned in duals and tournaments through the season. Winning and losing is less important. This rating is more predictive and is also more accurate in comparing two teams' expected duals point differential.

REWARD is based strictly on wins/losses within the context of your schedule. This rating is more politically correct and shows better what you "deserve". 

"Strength of Schedule (SoS)" shows the season-long quality of opponents your team faced.  

"ClassRank" shows the ranking of the Top 20 teams from each class for 2023-24.

"Rating" combines the two ratings, POTENTIAL and REWARD, into one overall rating.

 

Here is an excel file if you want to do your own sorting: Genius Ratings OVERALL Final 2024.xlsx                                  

 

Or here is a direct image. Click a few times to zoom in and see the ratings.

[maligned]

A few observations I found interesting from the ratings:

 

1. Normally there are a few more 4A schools in the mid- to high-90s. After the "Big 3" national-level programs, though, other 4A schools were not as strong as in years past.

2. Related to point #1, there are more 3A, 2A, and even a couple 1A schools, in the top 30. It's normal to see the top 10 from only 4A and to only see 2 or 3 non-4A schools in the top 20. This year, the top of all of the other three classes was quite strong.

3. Despite falling in the head-to-head win when it mattered most at Team State, Adams Central's per-match performance throughout the season was significantly stronger than Rochester and other 1A schools. However, the ratings #1's in the other 3 classes managed to be Team State champions.