maligned Posted January 29, 2010 Share Posted January 29, 2010 Here's a list of each sectional and its contenders, based on the "Genius" POTENTIAL Rating (see Indianamat.com home page). Remember that this rating is designed to predict results. Individual tournament point differentials are predicted by finding the difference in rating of two teams and multiplying by 3. Individual tournament results are obviously widely variable for a number of reasons, so these point spreads are not nearly as effective as the "straight-up" point spread differentials you can pull from POTENTIAL for dual matches. This is why these tournament results (like other individual tournaments) will only be weighted half as much as duals. Here's a breakdown of the outlook for each sectional: 1. East Chicago Central (10), 9 am CT Favorite: Munster (GeniusPO #33) Other contenders: Lake Central (-25.5 points) My pick: Munster 2. Calumet (8 ), 9 am CT Favorite: Merrillville (GeniusPO #5) Next: Calumet (-108.5 points) My pick: Merrillville 3. Crown Point (8 ), 9 am CT Favorite: Crown Point (GeniusPO #8) Next: Kankakee Valley (-85.5 points) My pick: Crown Point 4. LaPorte (8 ), 9 am CT Favorite: Portage (GeniusPO #11) Next: Chesterton (-73.5 points) My pick: Portage 5. Mishawaka (9), 9 am Favorite: Mishawaka (GeniusPO #1) Other contenders: Penn (-52.5 points) My pick: Mishawaka 6. Plymouth (9), 9 am Favorite: Warsaw (GeniusPO #95) Other contenders: Wawasee (-19 points), Plymouth (-27), Culver Academies (-39), Rochester (-43) My pick: Warsaw 7. Twin Lakes (11), 9 am Favorite: Logansport (GeniusPO #109) Other contenders: Pioneer (-20 points), Winamac (-25.5), Rensselaer Central (-26), West Central (-39.5) My pick: Logansport 8. Lafayette Jefferson (10), 9 am Favorite: McCutcheon (GeniusPO #23) Other contenders: Lafayette Jeff (-10.5 points), W.L. Harrison (-28), Delphi (-41) My pick: McCutcheon 9. Elkhart Memorial (8 ), 9 am Favorite: Jimtown (GeniusPO #18) Other contenders: Goshen (-2 points), Elkhart Memorial (-16.5), Fairfield (-53) My pick: Elkhart Memorial 10. Westview (10), 9 am Favorite: Prairie Heights (GeniusPO #54) Other contenders: DeKalb (-4 points), East Noble (-31) My pick: Prairie Heights 11. Carroll (Fort Wayne) (11), 8 am Favorite: FW Dwenger (GeniusPO #25) Other contenders: Carroll (-8 points), Garrett (-10), Whitko (-11), Leo (-46.5) My pick: Whitko 12. New Haven (10), 8:30 am Favorite: Homestead (GeniusPO #40) Other contenders: New Haven (-47 points), Heritage (-49.5) My pick: Homestead 13. Peru (9), 9 am Favorite: Huntington North (GeniusPO #30) Other contenders: Southwood (-42.5 points), Peru (-48.5) My pick: Huntington North 14. Oak Hill (10), 9 am Favorite: Marion (GeniusPO #85) Other contenders: Eastern (Greentown) (-26.5 points), Kokomo (-31.5), Western (-34.5) My pick: Marion 15. Jay County (9), 8:30 am Favorite: Bellmont (GeniusPO #15) Other contenders: South Adams (-44.5 points), Adams Central (-61.5) My pick: Bellmont 16. Delta (10), 9 am Favorite: Yorktown (GeniusPO #2) Next: Muncie Southside (-298.5) (Note: GeniusPO predictive ability not accurate with such large separation) My pick: Yorktown 17. Crawfordsville (9), 9 am Favorite: Fountain Central (GeniusPO #56) Other contenders: South Vermillion (-31 points), North Vermillion (-33.5), Crawfordsville (-41) My pick: Fountain Central 18. Zionsville (12), 8:30 am Favorite: Carmel (GeniusPO #22) Other contenders: Westfield (-9.5 points), Hamilton Southeastern (-10), Zionsville (-36.5) My pick: Carmel 19. Hamilton Heights (12), 9 am Favorite: Noblesville (GeniusPO #48) Other contenders: Pendleton Heights (-13 points), Alexandria (-34), Tri-Central (-36) My pick: Pendleton Heights 20. Lawrence Central (11), 8:30 am Favorite: Cathedral (GeniusPO #13) Other contenders: Lawrence North (-28.5 points), North Central (-46) My pick: Cathedral 21. Decatur Central (11), 9 am Favorite: Perry Meridian (GeniusPO #3) Next: Pike (-87 points) My pick: Perry Meridian 22. Shelbyville (10), 9 am Favorite: Roncalli (GeniusPO #14) Other contenders: New Palestine (-14 points), Warren Central (-45.5) My pick: New Palestine 23. Tri (11), 9 am Favorite: New Castle (GeniusPO #41) Other contenders: Rushville (-47 points) My pick: New Castle 24. Franklin County (9), 9 am Favorite: South Dearborn (GeniusPO #59) Other contenders: East Central (-34.5 points), Connersville (-43), Union County (-48) My pick: South Dearborn 25. Avon (10), 8:30 am Favorite: Brownsburg (GeniusPO #46) Other contenders: Danville (-2 points), Avon (-6), Cascade (-33.5) My pick: Avon 26. Mooresville (8 ), 9 am Favorite: Franklin (GeniusPO #12) Other contenders: Center Grove (-31 points), Mooresville (-54) My pick: Franklin 27. Northview (9), 9:30 am Favorite: Bloomington South (Genius PO #9) Next: Northview (-122 points) My pick: Bloomington South 28. Jennings County (9), 9 am Favorite: Jennings County (Genius PO #63) Other contenders: Columbus North (-10 points), Columbus East (-14) My pick: Jennings County 29. Jeffersonville (10), 9 am Favorite: Jeffersonville (Genius PO #16) Next: Floyd Central (-98.5 points) My pick: Jeffersonville 30. Southridge (10), 9 am Favorite: Jasper (Genius PO #71) Next: Knox (-98 points) My pick: Jasper 31. Castle (9), 9 am CT Favorite: Castle (GeniusPO #7) Next: Heritage Hills (-59 points) My pick: Castle 32. Evansville Central (9), 9 am CT Favorite: Evansville Reitz (Genius PO #4) Other contenders: Evansville Mater Dei (-18.5 points) My pick: Evansville Reitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted January 29, 2010 Author Share Posted January 29, 2010 Sectionals I'd definitely pay money to see, simply because of the amazing team races: Elkhart Memorial: 3 teams--absolute tossup between them. Reading the seeds from the brackets only makes it more difficult to guess. Virtually even in potential team points earned. Lafayette Jeff: 4 teams with a legitimate shot--plus a lot of rivalry juices flowing to make it interesting. Carroll: Again, literally 4 teams with no clear favorite at all. Avon: Only a few points separated the 3 top teams in their county meet and a couple points separated their duals. Again...down to the last match. Evansville Central: Only two teams in contention, but also the only place where a crime will be committed in leaving a team behind this weekend. The drama will be intense. Also potentially interesting, with at least 3 teams that could win on the right day: Plymouth, Twin Lakes, Zionsville, Hamilton Heights, Westview Sectionals where everyone hunting drama will be saying, "Thank goodness it's an individual tournament." In other words, I'll need resuscitation from shock if any favorites lose here: Calumet, Crown Point, Jeffersonville, Delta, Decatur Central, Northview, Southridge. Welcome to the regional round: Merrillville, Crown Point, Jeffersonville, Yorktown, Perry Meridian, Bloomington South, and Jasper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bomber Posted January 29, 2010 Share Posted January 29, 2010 Twin Lakes Sectional: Watch out for them BOMBERS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maligned Posted January 31, 2010 Author Share Posted January 31, 2010 Eight teams outsmarted the Genius POTENTIAL rating at sectional. Wawasee, WL Harrison, Whitko, Eastern (Greentown), Hamilton SE, Avon, and Mater Dei all won as very slight underdogs. Peru was easily the biggest upset, according to "Genius." They were 48.5-point underdogs before surpassing Southwood and Huntington North for the sectional title. Many people say, "What's the point of ratings? Let them decide it on the mat. Peru proves that." Of course! This is the point of competition. But the reason I love to compile ratings and read analysis like the Genius is that it puts a performance into context and helps us understand more fully the significance of what we saw. After looking through all the results again and looking at the Genius ratings, Peru clearly rose to a different level and saved its best performance of the season for the perfect time. Congratulations, Peru! By the way, the Genius was smarter than me (not that difficult). I missed 9 sectional picks compared to the 8 misses by Genius POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMAWRESTLER Posted January 31, 2010 Share Posted January 31, 2010 Eight teams outsmarted the Genius POTENTIAL rating at sectional. Wawasee, WL Harrison, Whitko, Eastern (Greentown), Hamilton SE, Avon, and Mater Dei all won as very slight underdogs. Peru was easily the biggest upset, according to "Genius." They were 48.5-point underdogs before surpassing Southwood and Huntington North for the sectional title. Many people say, "What's the point of ratings? Let them decide it on the mat. Peru proves that." Of course! This is the point of competition. But the reason I love to compile ratings and read analysis like the Genius is that it puts a performance into context and helps us understand more fully the significance of what we saw. After looking through all the results again and looking at the Genius ratings, Peru clearly rose to a different level and saved its best performance of the season for the perfect time. Congratulations, Peru! By the way, the Genius was smarter than me (not that difficult). I missed 9 sectional picks compared to the 8 misses by Genius POTENTIAL. Sometimes a really good coach can get a team to lay it all out line, Hobbs is one of those coaches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts