B.J. Penn vs Kenny Florian Breakdown

[Drooke]

This Breakdown is provided by IndianaWrestler ( he is also a member here - Cardinal Wrestler) @ http://forum.theopenmat.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=5071

Matchup:

Kenny 'KenFlo' Florian finally gets another title shot at the Prodigy, BJ Penn, at UFC 101. None more deserving at this time than Florian, who's been waiting far too long for this shot, this matchup pits a long time UFC star and at one point #1 P4P fighter in the world against one of the original 'Tuffers' in Florian. Here's my breakdown and prediction of the fight, what we might expect to see, and ramifications.

 

Strength: Even. Neither fighter is an overpowering figure, but each retains a good deal of muscular and bone flexibility

 

Speed: Edge BJ. Some of the fastest hands in MMA, he's quick and accurate on all counts. He hits you once, you're going to get hit again.

 

Stamina: Clear advantage Florian. He doesnt tire, and the longer the fight goes, the more aggressive and accurate he becomes.

 

Striking: Hands go to BJ, overall to Florian. I think BJ's experience in the cage will help him overcome a very very well rounded striker in Florian, but he does need to get this fight closer and take away the reach advantage Florian will have

 

Grappling: Edge BJ. He'd better be working on his overall game, Florian's black belt in bjj is nothing to sneeze at. I dont think Florian though, IF the fight gets to the ground, will pass BJ's guard at ALL like GSP did. However, I dont see this fight making it to the ground early or at all in this fight.

 

Submissions: Even. both have shown the ability to submit and avoid submissions in the grappling game.

 

Takedowns: Edge BJ. Florian has some terrible takedown attempts, any wrestler can stuff. He's better working in a scramble situation where the majority of his TD's have come from in his last few fights. BJ is damn near impossible, unless you're GSP, to takedown. Rumor had it that when BJ trained with Randy Couture years ago, he was taking Randy down fairly frequently. Florian's TD defense is lacking, he's much better at creating scrambles when he can and winning those.

 

Chin: Even. Both these guys have shown great chin and ability to take punishment, recover, and fight on

 

Strike defense: Edge BJ in earlier rounds. Florian has a bad tendency to back straight up following an engagement, which I see BJ exploiting. People have been able to land blows on Florian, but none have been able to follow up. BJ early will be able to do so.

 

Submission D: Even.

 

takedown D: Advantage BJ. Good luck, Florian, using you half-hearted shot to take down this boy, and enjoy the knees if you do.

 

Mental Game: Advantage Florian. BJ talks a lot of smack, but as we've seen in the past, he breaks mentally in a fight when things dont go his way. Florian MAKES things go his way, exploiting everything he can.

 

Game Planning. Advantage Florian. In the past, BJ has relied on the 'Prodigy' status to get him through fights, never really having a plan to win other than his abilities. Florian is a student of the game, and in the past has shown the ability to change strategies to suddenly overwhelm opponents in later rounds.

 

What you can expect: First two rounds, if Florian survives, should be all Penn. Penn does have amazingly fast hands, and a tremendous amount of experience to back everything up. He's going to dominate the first two rounds, IMO. Round three is where we start to see Florian change what he's doing, and start to win rounds. If he can win round 3 or make it close, look out, he could even pull off a 10-8 round in the final two periods. You're going to see a stand-up war, both fighters looking to prove something. However, if BJ Penn decides to play it grappling and take Florian down, we could see a UD for the champion or a Submission late in the second or middle 3rd round. I dont see that happening, however.

 

My prediction: Florian will weather the storm, and in the 5th period break BJ Penn for a TKO in the final minute.