maligned

Yeah, I do mathematical modeling too. And I've seen the results of all of those tournaments in the data. On a math level, the side to play for an over/under of 1 AA from 400 collective attempts from those specific guys is a little over 1.

Kayla gets it done! She beats the Venezuelan, 3-0, this time. Now she "only" needs to win the Trials and she's into another Olympic Games! Parrish at 53kg also qualified the weight for us. It's only Amit Elor, possibly the best female wrestler on the planet, needing to qualify 68kg that's left (she's emerged the last 2 seasons as an unbeatable force at 72kg, but cut down for the Olympic year..our other rep didn't qualify 68 at Worlds).

Kayla Miracle is about to go on the mat in her semi-final match to attempt to seal United States qualification of a slot at 62kg. She has the rising young Venezuelan that we'd expected she'd face. Again, she beat her last week by pin in 4:30, but she was trailing, 5-4, at the time. Our girls at 53 and 68kg are also in the semis. We previously qualified the other 3 weights. We also qualified 3 of the 6 weights yesterday in Greco, losing a couple tough ones and picking up a huge upset in the one weight I thought we had no chance.

One more thing to get further into the weeds on this (ha!)...guys with his squatty body type that win world freestyle titles tend to have an upper body game that forces proximity. Think I-Mar domestically with a constant underhook (or Yazdani from Iran, although he's not as squatty physically). Or they'll force proximity and danger through arm tie/foot sweep/throw series that don't have great payoff in folk style because of their low success rate (and therefore tend not to get developed by our guys).

I don't think it's an effort or fear thing. I just don't think he's ever developed an outside game. If you watch him against elite freestylers, where hand fighting is everything, they bog him down in close. Or they're elite athletes (like his 2 losses at NCAAs last year) that keep him at their distance and cherry pick a shot or two. In both scenarios, he can't get off the launching pad for his in-close straight-on shots, ducks, or high-c's. He doesn't have anything dynamic at far outside angles or from space. (We're obviously only talking about the elite of the elite where this comes into play. He's got plenty of horsepower and offense for all but 1 or 2 guys at NCAAs and for matching up against almost all of our freestylers domestically. He's also capable of beating even some of the elite globally at times because of his engine, effort, defense, and positioning.)

Based on the specific landscape of each weight class, I'd guess Mendez and Davison slightly higher than the regression spit out and Allred, Rooks, Lee a little lower. I'd also guess that Washington/Boarman/Baumann/Sollars would collectively earn more than 1 AA slot every one hundred years.

Yes, their depth of talent is very, very high. They don't have the "per capita" talent that we do. We're more of a "wrestling state" in terms of how many kids we develop relative to our population--but California's population is so gigantic. They produce a LOT of good kids.

His offense has a ceiling. So when he faces someone with world class attacks like Vito with similar defensive ability, he struggles to keep up. I don't think he can win that match.

The event starts today with Greco, where we haven't qualified any of the 6 weights yet. To qualify the 6, we're significant favorites in 2 weights, slight favorites in another 2, a coin flip in one, and heavy underdogs to a Cuban in one. We never qualify all the Greco weights for the Olympics, but we should get 3 to 5 today.

Draws are out for the Olympic Games qualifier. To get top 2 to qualify the weight, Kayla Miracle will probably face a tough 20yo Venezuelan who has two age group world medals to her credit. Kayla was losing to her 5-4 before pinning her with 1:30 left in their match last week. Nick Lee will probably have Austin Gomez, past NCAA AA, wrestling for Mexico in the quarters; and then Canadian NCAA AA for North Carolina, Lachlan McNeil, in the semis. Gomez is very dynamic and did upset Yianni in the college season last year. Jacob Moran is out and NCAA champ Darian Cruz is in for Puerto Rico at 57kg. For the US at that weight, Zane Richards' biggest test in qualifying the weight should be Cruz in the semis.

Kayla Miracle also took gold (which matters a lot..explained below). Jacob Moran wrestled for Puerto Rico and lost his only match, 3-1, to the Ecuadorian who took bronze. These Pan Am championships matter for international seeding points, including for the Olympics, so we took them seriously. However, the real event is this weekend--the Pan Am Olympic Qualifier tournament. All 18 Olympic weights will wrestle until there is a Top 2, who will qualify their country for that given weight at the Olympics this summer. Nations who already qualified at a given weight by placing Top 5 at the 2023 Worlds will not have an entry at that weight. Nick Lee will attempt to qualify us for the Olympics at 65kg and Kayla Miracle will attempt to qualify us at 62kg, where neither was successful in placing Top 5 at 2023 Worlds. Jacob Moran will once again compete for Puerto Rico as well. In addition to Lee at freestyle 65 and Kayla at women's 62, the U.S. will also attempt to qualify 57kg in freestyle, all 6 weights of Greco, and 53kg and 68kg in women's. Kayla's gold at the regular Pan Am Championships was important because she took the head-to-head gold medal match from the Canadian in a nail biter, 6-6. This gives Kayla the #1 seed and puts her opposite both the very tough Canadian and a very tough Brazilian in the Olympic Qualifier event. There is no True 2nd, so it paves the way for a much easier path to winning in the semi-finals and guaranteeing our place at the Olympics. Even if Nick and Kayla qualify the weights for us, they have to come through our Olympic Trials in April like everyone else to be our representatives this summer.

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Across the last 10 actually wrestled D1 tournaments we've gotten 23 All-Americans. And we've seen 113 All-Americans from the last 10 actually wrestled D2, D3, NAIA, NJCAA tournaments. That's 2.3 D1 and 11.3 smaller-division All-Americans per year. Who get these men's spots for us this year? I follow D1 much more than the others, so it's the one I know. Trying to see things objectively, I think only 2 AAs is the most likely scenario this year. How I'd categorize our Indiana high school grads' AA chances: Likely: Mendez--He is in an always-deep 141, but he would need to lose a couple of significant upsets not to medal. He's one of 2 (maybe 3) clear gold medal contenders. Davison--Heavyweight, contrary to high school, tends to be fairly predictable with obvious tiers. Davison seems headed for about a #6 seed, and him winning above his seed or losing below his seed outside of about 3 to 8 is unlikely. Small chance: Allred--His ranking suggests he's in about the same position he was last year heading into Big 10s, where he emerged not only as an AA threat, but also a dark horse to take the whole thing. However, we haven't seen the same scoring savvy that he showed last year in any of his matches against top competition this year. He's got a great shot to win a couple NCAA matches again, but he'll need to rekindle some things we haven't seen yet this year to make an AA run. B-Lee--I love how hard this dude has worked to get back and to be ready to bang headed into Big 10s. He's capable of some interesting moments again. Sadly, though, he will need to rediscover one or two more helpings of that past prowess to make a run. G-Rooks--He's come agonizingly close before, so I wouldn't count him out. Like last year, he needs a workable draw, and he needs to get hot. It's not probable--but not impossible. He's got a really similar mix of results to last year, and he seems headed for a similar seed. Notable others: DJ Washington--Not sure why he's struggled so much for a sustained period now, but I would have had him in the "small chance" category for sure early this season. He doesn't look like himself at all right now, so it's hard to imagine much post-season impact from him unless he recovers from whatever is ailing him very quickly. Blake Boarman--Breakout year for Blake. He seems headed for an NCAA bid with a sparkling record of 17-4. But he wrestles a lesser schedule, so it's hard to get a handle on how much he might be able to do against top guys. I'm excited to follow him at SoCon's and beyond. Gabe Sollars--Super fun pin artist that's had a couple tight ones with AA contenders. He hasn't quite broken through against the upper tier; but if he manages to get into the tournament, he could make some noise. Brody Baumann--He's another one that needs to sneak into the tournament first, but that shows flashes of creating interesting upsets. Evan Bates--He's solid. He beats who he should, but loses fairly clearly against the top 30. Getting into the tournament, which he could very likely do, would be a good result for him. Connor Barket--Big strides forward, but he'll need a special performance at the ACC tournament to get into NCAAs. Brodie Porter--Same as Barket...big strides, but likely a year or two away from big noise. Nick Wilham--Admirable job jumping in at 285, but would also need a huge conference tournament.

Thanks, brah! My meme game is way too weak to have any official status on the site

We've gotten spoiled since then with a steady stream of 3- and 4-timers highly ranked in America. But before that, they almost never happened. When Tsirtsis and Maurer stepped on the mat at weights bigger than 103, smashing everyone from Day 1; it was literally the first time any of us had ever seen anything like it. Now we see kids like Shepherd and Kincaide, and we're like, "Nice. Kid's got potential." That era was a true renaissance for our state, that's for sure.

Both teams at full health, IU by 5 to 8. With IU so up and down, it's more like a coin flip. But with home advantage and some senior night juice meaning IU is less likely than Chattanooga to do late-season resting of guys, I'll guess IU by 5.

More importantly, the coaches' ranking already had him #25 and he was RPI #28. Those numbers would earn the conference an extra automatic bid and position him very well for getting into NCAAs either by auto bid or at-large selection.

He's right in the mix for earning his conference a 133 automatic quota slot. If so, even if he's a narrow miss at conference; he'll be in a great position to be selected to go to NCAAs.

I agree. His rankings are usually more intuitive than that.

Yeah, there's no way to justify him being ranked over Hockaday. I was more talking in a general sense about how the thread launched and that, I think, there's a perception he's behind some of the other up and comers.

Have you guys seen how enormous, explosive, and able to grind for 7 minutes that the top college guys are? That is NOT possible with weigh-ins a couple hours before duals and multiple weigh-ins per week unless they're hanging out within a few pounds of their weight all the time. It's all shifted now. They're feeding these guys perfectly balanced, portioned-out nutrition and monitoring every bite at the top teams. And they're FULL GO every match and as-demanded in practice. Those physiques and that after-weigh-in energy output simply aren't possible if your nutrition isn't dialed in and if you aren't staying within a handful of pounds of your weight all the time. Weight "management" and zero calories that don't build and fuel you is the name of the game now.

I don't have the credentials to pull off the meme skills--but I was thinking this same thing. Only loss in two years is to Indiana's #1 pound-for-pound. Biggest jump in quality is often sophomore to junior year. Owns an in-state title and wins over nationally ranked guys in-season and out. I guess he's already old news.

Yeah, it was Ron Gaskins' brother, Tom--4-3 in OT at state in 1975. Tom was a regional champ coming back again in the same weight as May in 1976 (regionals directly into state during that time period), but he didn't place top 4. I tried to look in a couple places, but I'm not sure what happened to him that year at state.

It might be Gaskins: Ron was 3rd, 1st and 1st his final 3 seasons.

Goshen: Our only champ was Dave Edlund in 1974--50 years ago this season. Also 3rd his sophomore year. (Bonus points for having 2 sons at state later.) Best I ever watched was Joe Piwoszkin, our only 3-time placer. Dropped a last-second semi-final decision in 2004 to all-time big-guy great, Chris Kasten, for his only loss that season. Shout-outs also to Gerardo Quiroz, Schuyler Barkes, and Jim Hoke, who are the other 3 in my 35 seasons of following high school wrestling that could have won state on the right day.