Jump to content

Scott Kelly

Gorillas
  • Posts

    13
  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Articles

Coach

Teams

Team History

Wrestlers

Wrestler Accomplishments

Dual Results

Individual Results

Team Rankings

Individual Rankings Master

Individual Ranking Detail

Tournament Results

Brackets

College Signings

Media

State Bracket Year Info

Team Firsts and Lasts

Family History

Schedule-Main

Schedule-Details

Team History Accomplishments

Current Year Dual Results

Current Year Tournament Results

Forums

Events

Store

Downloads

Everything posted by Scott Kelly

  1. The way I see it, if you care about IU’s wrestling program, your energy would be better spent improving wrestling’s social environment in Indiana at the high school level instead of trying to get rid of Angel. At IU and at Indiana in general, wrestling is just not cool. Basketball is cool. Football is cool. Not wrestling, that is not cool. I would know, I wrestled there 05-09. I was on the team with Angel under the Goldman-Mena dynasty. We were mid level big ten team with mostly Indiana HS wrestlers. Look us up we did a lot of winning. Angel is actually very smart, very charismatic, and very good at wrestling. I was very jealous of him and his success with basically everything in life, but the hard truth is he’s better than me in everything because he worked harder. There is no one better for the program. The head coach needs to be a legend, IU has one in Angel. Disco, You and I love wrestling. We know it’s the greatest sport of all time. But mom and dad came to watch us wrestle at IU home meets. At Ohio, the common man and woman come out to watch wrestling, because wrestling is cool there. We must change this in Indiana. change it by getting out of our old ways. Girls wrestling is a good step, but is only a start. We must make the state tournament/season ending experience more enjoyable for everyone too, we can’t honestly believe the way it has been for so long is the best way still. Class/division the state championship up however you want, but let’s just change it already. read my awesome proposal linked below that I posted last year that was universally trolled by everyone even though it’s actually pretty great idea but you all just don’t know me enough to take me seriously and that’s fine.
  2. This is a great question. im thinking 2 things: 1) what we should do is calibrate it to award bigger point swings at the actual state tournament. I’m thinking in a Friday night to Sunday window we should have 8-10 rounds of wrestling matches for Everyone. And we should calibrate it so a big enough swing could happen to take a lowest rank F to champ or state place winner in top 8 level if you go undefeated. I think actually this might be possible already with how it’s setup but I’ll have to test it. 2) BUT-I don’t like placing TOO much emphasis on the final tournament. This hypothetical injured best-in-the-end would not have been the best over-the-season and I think it’s more fair to award championship title to the best over the season. I feel this way because I wrestled in d1 and I watched schools (including my own) rest out their best guys until “it mattered” often. I think that’s a smart move on coaches part but it’s dumb that the system works that way to force us to want to sit people out.
  3. Here I think I got the calibrations all figured out with this one attached. In the control worksheet i added a histogram and some summaries to help us see what happens to score overall and in the round. I was able to get things calibrated pretty good i think by setting it so the score bands are dynamic and are reset every round. This should help you test this out to see if the distributions and scores and everything work the way you think they should. SCOTT_KELLYS_IHSAA_PROPOSED_STATE_WRESTLING_TOURNAMENT_V4.xlsm
  4. I see where you’re coming from but hear me out, here’s some new things that are great about this approach: We don’t have to know anything about math for this to totally work. I’m not good at math. All we need to care about: -back in the 90s, some nerd built a system of equations in order to make it possible to rate everyone’s skill at something for a season (sure his idea was specifically for chess, but we can steal it) and make it sensibly rate your victories and losses. -in a non bracket state tournament, now mediocre/casual wrestlers can have something to work toward: building up their score to get to the next tier. Maybe they can’t hope to get in the top 8, but they can try to battle up the next tier. It’s like a video game now. Beat someone rated high = big score boost. How high? Who cares, but it will become an element of fun to look it up at the end of a hard day on the mat. Now, when we see those big upsets in a dual meet mid year (where a kid really does show he/she improved) its remembered by the system and it counts for that kid’s score for the season. -in a non bracket tournament, we won’t just see where the top 8 stand. We will know exactly what place you are by score. You could shoot for top 50 your novice/freshman year if you’re new but kinda good, etc.
  5. I got some more time to work on it tonight. Okay i fixed the bug where it was really only configured to sort for 3 rounds in the summary sheet, now it will sort dynamically for as many rounds as you want. fixed some other things after testing some more. Added a control worksheet, and relocated the run simulation button there as well as the "how many rounds" cell you input for how many rounds of simulation we want to do (remember to turn macros on, or the button to simulate won't work). Added an inventory worksheet, and that's where the sample inventory of wrestlers are in our hypothetical season with their scores and rating deviation now. I added a "tier" parameter, in which each wrestler gets placed in a tier by their "score". Then, i added intelligence to the matching maker in which it first should sort you by tier then by a random number to pair you up within your tier or the next tier above/below you. I configured the tiers' bands using a target distribution I set up, I think I/we need to play around with this now and run a bunch of different tournament simulations to get the right setting for the rating deviation so the amount you appreciate/depreciate in "score" isn't too fast or too small over time. I'm thinking right now probably need to set it so that a target distribution still gets met within some kind of tolerance after you run like 30 rounds, because that's about how many matches i think people have normally in a season. Might be a while before i post again. SCOTT_KELLYS_IHSAA_PROPOSED_STATE_WRESTLING_TOURNAMENT_V3.xlsm
  6. Here i've made a version 2 to make this easier to understand. In sheet1, type in cell J2 how many rounds you want to simulate, and it will simulate a whole tournament of rounds and output a summary of every wrestler's score round by round and a line graph showing their score round by round of the top 10 wrestlers by the ending round. This can help you play with the RD and score parameters in the beginning in sheet1 to see if the changes in score are great enough when people win or lose, as well as observe what this could look like for a tournament. So far this is purely based on win or lose in chess. Next I plan on putting in some kind of modifiers for wrestling after this, such as the severity of the win/loss should impact the ending score for both wrestlers. I want to develop intelligence of pairing up wrestlers by their scores and have it be dynamic from round to round so the match you wrestle in will impact who you wrestle next! Enjoy! Remember you have to enable macros, or it wont work when you click the simulate tournament button. This is really addicting to work with, please have fun! SCOTT_KELLYS_IHSAA_PROPOSED_STATE_WRESTLING_TOURNAMENT_V2.xlsm
  7. Attached is a small sample of how this could work for a weight class. I coded up in VBA how a single round can work. Sorry I didn't leave a comments in the code yet. This score method would be based off of the Glicko system similar to how Chess.com ratings work, I've input his equations he uses. The idea would be your score would increase or decrease relative to several factors including: How good you are How good your opponent is How certain we are if your current score, using a variable called "Rating Deviation" (which you could think of as the standard deviation of your skill level as a wrestler..sort of) In the workbook, in [sheet1], I've input a sample size of wrestlers with a hypothetical score and rating deviation, what rank they would be based on that score, and a column i'm calling rand for now but should clean that up later it doesn't matter. Click enable macros at the top, then you click the button "create round" and it would run the macro to generate round one. This will create sheet [Round 1], in which has automated the bout matching for round one (which is just random for now, but i can develop an algorithm that is intelligent and match you however we want to later). Here, you can input 1 or 0 in the red column depending on if the wrestler won or lost, and you can see it changes their new score in column L. If you win it goes up, if you win against a stronger opponent it goes way up. Vice versa is true for losing, if you lose against a strong player it goes down a little, if you lose against a lot weaker your score goes down alot. Their rating deviation should also change, the closer to zero the rating deviation is, the less of an impact each win or loss should have on your score because we are more certain of your score. Dr. Glicko notes that we should be careful to have a threshold that RD should not drop below so that the match results can still meaningfully update your score, so i've got to adjust that still. I plan on making modifiers for how great a margin of victory/loss you had (minor, major, techfall/fall) and maybe some other things. Please have fun with this and suggest how the score method can be improved, i will continue to code up this workbook to show how we should be doing the state tournament for wrestling in Indiana. SCOTT_KELLYS_IHSAA_PROPOSED_STATE_WRESTLING_TOURNAMENT.xlsm
  8. This thread is intended to propose a new format of the IHSAA state wrestling tournament. 1. We ditch folk style wrestling, and we wrestle Greco Roman instead. Why: -Folkstyle has many more ways to stall relative to the other styles -Greco Roman is more entertaining for the kids with the throws etc., & it just forces action better -A college coach could easily teach what isn’t known about folkstyle to a great Indiana wrestler, and it would be a fresh change for the kids when they wrestle in college in a new style that they could use many techniques they already know. -I argue more interest would get generated in Indiana wrestling because multi sport athletes could more quickly pick up Greco Roman and have more fun with it 2. We ditch double elimination bracket style for a single league style with the winner of state having been the wrestler who accumulated the highest “score” similar to a chess latter system. Score would not start at zero at state, starting score should be developed by your wins and losses over ranked opponents in the season and by how great a margin your victory was. This rewards you for competing throughout the year, does not penalize you for switching weight classes-but rewards you for switching weight classes to try to beat higher score opponents near your weight and all the while allowing it possible for you to win at the end of the year even if you did not have a perfect year. A computer program gets built at state to assign matches every round based on score where if you win a round, you wrestle a higher score ranked opponent than before (in general). Why: -This score method helps eliminate biases present in our current system such as school class and location. -I argue This would encourage more risk taking, I’m not a fan of “you lose once you can’t win it all” at state, and not a fan of you lose twice you’re done. I’m not a fan of whatever happened in season stops mattering when we start the state tournament. As we know, so many factors make this unfair in current system (location, class, etc.) Now you could potentially lose, but still win it all by score, because you went potentially 20-4 in season because you moved up a weight to try to take out big names at some duel meets and lost 4 times at state but you took risks and hit a couple of sick lateral drops and won a lot of matches and your score got boosted enough to win it all. 3. The entire state tournament would need ran inside a Friday-Sunday period somewhere. Why: -The current 4 week system feels long -would need everyone together to do proposed method
  9. Well put together. Would like to debate. A wonder I get from this is: we all want to grow interest in Indiana wrestling, yes true. But would this new way of doing things actually do that though? Would more kids wrestle for small schools now, than the number of kids that would drop from big schools because now it’s hypothetically harder? It feels like you argue with your stats and your pie chart that essentially it’s not fair for small schools because they are disproportionately represented at state and they don’t have enough competitive parity, but: -wouldn’t the chart and stats look the same if we looked at the proportion of students by IHSAA class just by virtue of school population? -Couldn’t Your competition issue be largely addressed on the off season at red cobra or other regional clubs/competitions? What if you collaborated with another school (better than you) and practiced together once a week? Or dueled for fun once a year somehow? Aren’t there out of the box thinking things you could try? I think we need to keep in mind also that a big school athlete does not “have it easy” either. I was a Indiana state champion for Carmel High School, but I was JV by way of wrestle off until my junior year. At some places you are having to win your own little tournament already to just represent your big school in the sectional state tournament. Also, I’m not a fan of the proposed state championship approach. In going to this from what we have, now we could be moving to a situation where we are farther away from the truly best 8 I’m the end than we were before because your draw is now arbitrarily impacted by school class.
  10. Is this move legal in high school folkstyle? https://youtu.be/bZe-IAzYVd4 thanks! Scott Kelly
  11. Please discontinue hating on Carmel’s wrestling program. there is a history of many unsung heroes that devoted many hours trying to get that program better at wrestling - just like everybody else’s programs. Thanks, Scott Kelly
  12. How difficult is the exam to become licensed to referee wrestling in Indiana? Like what kind of commitment should you be expecting? Thinking about checking it out someday. Thanks, Scott Kelly
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.