wrestlenewbie

5 hours ago, maligned said:

Based on the specific landscape of each weight class, I'd guess Mendez and Davison slightly higher than the regression spit out and Allred, Rooks, Lee a little lower. I'd also guess that Washington/Boarman/Baumann/Sollars would collectively earn more than 1 AA slot every one hundred years. 

Everyone thinks their guys are the exceptions. And maybe they are. Even if they have 1 chance in 100, someone will be the one. But remember, it isn't about the guy. It is about where the guy stands relative to all the other guys.

For example, the last 13 seven seeds who have made the final have all lost. Seems statistically improbable until you see that all 13 times they lost to the #1 seed.

On 2/28/2024 at 6:46 AM, maligned said:

Draws are out for the Olympic Games qualifier.

 

To get top 2 to qualify the weight, Kayla Miracle will probably face a tough 20yo Venezuelan who has two age group world medals to her credit. Kayla was losing to her 5-4 before pinning her with 1:30 left in their match last week. 

 

Nick Lee will probably have Austin Gomez, past NCAA AA, wrestling for Mexico in the quarters; and then Canadian NCAA AA for North Carolina, Lachlan McNeil, in the semis. Gomez is very dynamic and did upset Yianni in the college season last year. 

 

Jacob Moran is out and NCAA champ Darian Cruz is in for Puerto Rico at 57kg. For the US at that weight, Zane Richards' biggest test in qualifying the weight should be Cruz in the semis.

Though Lee pinfelled Gomez at Worlds in Serbia.

On 2/26/2024 at 10:24 AM, maligned said:

Across the last 10 actually wrestled D1 tournaments we've gotten 23 All-Americans.  And we've seen 113 All-Americans from the last 10 actually wrestled D2, D3, NAIA, NJCAA tournaments.

 

That's 2.3 D1 and 11.3 smaller-division All-Americans per year. 

 

Who get these men's spots for us this year? 

 

I follow D1 much more than the others, so it's the one I know. Trying to see things objectively, I think only 2 AAs is the most likely scenario this year.

 

How I'd categorize our Indiana high school grads' AA chances:

 

Likely:

Mendez--He is in an always-deep 141, but he would need to lose a couple of significant upsets not to medal. He's one of 2 (maybe 3) clear gold medal contenders.

Davison--Heavyweight, contrary to high school, tends to be fairly predictable with obvious tiers. Davison seems headed for about a #6 seed, and him winning above his seed or losing below his seed outside of about 3 to 8 is unlikely.

 

Small chance:

Allred--His ranking suggests he's in about the same position he was last year heading into Big 10s, where he emerged not only as an AA threat, but also a dark horse to take the whole thing. However, we haven't seen the same scoring savvy that he showed last year in any of his matches against top competition this year. He's got a great shot to win a couple NCAA matches again, but he'll need to rekindle some things we haven't seen yet this year to make an AA run.

B-Lee--I love how hard this dude has worked to get back and to be ready to bang headed into Big 10s. He's capable of some interesting moments again. Sadly, though, he will need to rediscover one or two more helpings of that past prowess to make a run.

G-Rooks--He's come agonizingly close before, so I wouldn't count him out. Like last year, he needs a workable draw, and he needs to get hot. It's not probable--but not impossible. He's got a really similar mix of results to last year, and he seems headed for a similar seed.

 

Notable others:

DJ Washington--Not sure why he's struggled so much for a sustained period now, but I would have had him in the "small chance" category for sure early this season. He doesn't look like himself at all right now, so it's hard to imagine much post-season impact from him unless he recovers from whatever is ailing him very quickly.

Blake Boarman--Breakout year for Blake. He seems headed for an NCAA bid with a sparkling record of 17-4. But he wrestles a lesser schedule, so it's hard to get a handle on how much he might be able to do against top guys. I'm excited to follow him at SoCon's and beyond.

Gabe Sollars--Super fun pin artist that's had a couple tight ones with AA contenders. He hasn't quite broken through against the upper tier; but if he manages to get into the tournament, he could make some noise.

Brody Baumann--He's another one that needs to sneak into the tournament first, but that shows flashes of creating interesting upsets.

Evan Bates--He's solid. He beats who he should, but loses fairly clearly against the top 30. Getting into the tournament, which he could very likely do, would be a good result for him.

Connor Barket--Big strides forward, but he'll need a special performance at the ACC tournament to get into NCAAs.

Brodie Porter--Same as Barket...big strides, but likely a year or two away from big noise.

Nick Wilham--Admirable job jumping in at 285, but would also need a huge conference tournament.

 

I have it at 2 AAs this year based on current Intermat rankings. Of course, anything they do to improve their seeds over their rankings at their conference tournaments will increase that total.

The far right column is the probability of AAing based on fitted results from 2010 - 2023.

On 2/19/2024 at 12:03 PM, Disco said:

Maybe not soon but the Loins will fade , or have some downs

If that happens there is always viagra.

2 hours ago, SIACfan said:

But Kilkeary put him on his back as well for what I thought was a 2 second count (but it was very close).

 

So if the official gave Davis reaction time when Kilkeary was behind then it could have been a neutral danger TD from the back exposure. That is what I was comparing as equal.

 

Again, IMO both should have gave one way or the other. Not two different ways. JMO though. Both were extremely close. If they had happened in a vacuum I would not complain about how they were called. Both could have gone either way. But since they happened in the same dual, by the same official just a few matches apart it was a bad look for one to go one way & the other to go a different way.

BTW Spey on Flo has a good blog on the inconsistency of control calls this year:

https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/12040856-ncaa-d1-week-14-roundup-just-what-is-control-anyway

29 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

Yes, but neutral danger is a TD.

 

And as I already stated IMO either both should have been a neutral danger TD or neither should have been.

 

 

Well that isn't what you said. You said they were either both TD or neither was. No one is arguing it should have been a neutral danger TD on Davis, just a regular TD. The issue was that Davis was on a knee when Kilkeary was behind him and in control.

Since the criteria for neutral danger takedown is very different than the criteria for a regular TD it doesn't make sense to say they are parallel situations that have been called the same.

26 minutes ago, MattM said:

https://x.com/IndianaWR/status/1754218098012361157?s=20

Angel, looking sharp.

Oh yeah, and Rooks too.

46 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

It is hard to compare teams from different era's, but Iowa's 1997 squad scored the most team points in NCAA history with 170. They had 5 champs & 8 AA's that year.

 

Let's see how PSU ends the season this year. Won't be easy to beat that overall team performance.

 

FWI, I'm not sure if the scoring is still the same as it was in 1997.

The scoring is not the same. Third through eighth were worth less in 97 than now, a 15 point win without back points (called a match termination) was only 1 bonus, and 97 was scored as a 64-man bracket whenever there were pig-tails.

Adjusting Iowa's 97 score for today's rules yields 171.5

1 hour ago, SIACfan said:

Well both 125 & 141 were close calls.

 

IMO, either both were TD's or neither were. Not sure how you wave off one & call the other a TD.

They did not call it a TD in 141. It was neutral danger.

Lee won the first match 12-3. Diakomihalis hit his head during the match and was unable to take the mat for match 2, forfeiting to Lee.

Lee will represent the US at the Pan-Am OG Qualifier at the end of the month. Not sure who will represent the US at the Pan-Am Championship the week prior. The US has to enter someone at the Championship in order to go to the Qualifier.

10 hours ago, Mitchell1993 said:

Sergio Lemley looking good vs #1 Real Woods with a major! Honestly was surprised it wasn’t a pin! Michigan off to a great start! Up 13-0 after 4! (Don’t ruin the end, I am recording).

I think Real Woods was surprised it wasn't a pinfall, too.

21 hours ago, Disco said:

While the Wilkinson facility is a night and day improvement from the old University High School gym, it’s set up mainly for volleyball. And doesn’t provide any practice area. But I’m  sure several other Big schools aren’t any better. So using the facilities card does not apply here anymore. 
One of the nicest people you would ever encounter is Duane Goldman. 

Is Chad Red still with the RTC? I haven't seen him compete anywhere? Or is he coaching?

1 hour ago, Disco said:

Thanks. If Angel can produce, develop, I’m ok with 1,2 or 3 AA’s per year. Don’t need to win Big. Be in top 15 or 10!os good.  
Do you think Indiana’s coaching can produce this?

I remember a wrestler saying they had a facilities problem that makes it tough to recruit. The one time I met Angel Escabedo he seemed like a very nice guy. I would like to see him succeed.

7 hours ago, Disco said:

Assuming this is Indiana. 

Correct

Mendez hit his first bump in the road, losing 4-2 to Pitt's Matthews. Was leading 1-0 with riding time secured, gave up the escape with 18 seconds left and the takedown with 6 seconds left.

Probably not news to most given the tweet is 3 weeks old

1 hour ago, Ahap88 said:

I watched it earlier. I don't know who did what, and I obviously can't answer Tom's question. Is does seem odd that if it (athletes wagering) is a major issue for the NCAA that they chose to come down on wrestlers, whom 99% of college sports fans have never heard of. I guess dropping the hammer on big name big money sport athletes might hit the revenue stream too hard. Also, I would bet (no pun intended) that Brands takes on a combative tone when simply ordering coffee. I've never met the man, but I think he intentionally makes people uncomfortable, probably so as to keep them at a distance. He makes me uncomfortable from here.

 

At Iowa they suspended athletes from football, men's basketball, men's track and field, and wrestling. At ISU it was football, track and field, and wrestling.

14 minutes ago, Ahawkeye said:

So he wrestles Monday?

Yes

Are any of you gentlemen going to Belgrade?

On 7/25/2023 at 10:12 PM, Disco said:

Oh well, newbie? You like to water ski? Or play pinochle?

My first date with my now wife we went waterskiing. She started from the dock and finished on the dock. She didn't get wet above her ankles. I knew then and there I needed to marry that woman.

On 7/17/2023 at 9:52 PM, Disco said:

Absolutely! Any idea on date or dates for occupancy? 

Looks like you have a house guest. Just not the one you want. Steveson chooses to stick with minor league fake wrestling.

On 6/26/2023 at 8:22 PM, Disco said:

So is anyone sure that he goes back to the rodents.  Is he a grad student? Does he have degrees, profession, in mind? Iu has a great business mBA program. sPEA program is top notch in the country. I have a daylight basement with all the amenities if he were o choose to help Angel out this year. 

If Steveson doesn't take it can I get a shot at that basement?

19 hours ago, SIACfan said:

 

Also, there are less weight classes.

 

So the questions begs, what weight do Retherford & Vito compete at?

 

Not to mention any other wrestler at 61kg &/or 70kg. Do the 61kg wrestlers try to go 57 or 65, and do the 70kg wrestlers try 65 or 74?

 

Clearly, the Olympic team will be even harder to make. Thus Nick securing his spot in Final-X by medaling this year will be big.

For Olympic Trials they do this all on two days, unlike Final X where there are weeks between the challenge tournament and the final.

This makes a bye to the final an even bigger advantage as you are wrestling someone who is more beat up and has had to make weight two days in a row.

I was glad to see he was the runaway winner of both the committee vote and the fan vote. He was awesome this year.