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Everything posted by Westforkwhite

  1. Shouldn't it be tough to schedule if you forfeit half of your weights or more? If a coach is interested in getting kids competition, i think you avoid the schools who year after year fail to send out even 8 wrestlers. I'm not talking about a one or two year anomaly, im referring to schools who year in and year out FF a high number of weights. I sure wouldn't want them on our schedule as a fan or parent.
  2. 132 - Alex Barr Yorktown 138 - Colt Rutter Yorktown
  3. I and I'm certain others appreciate you recording the finals, and the broadcast was great. You are helping make wrestling better in Indiana and i know I'm not alone in that view. Wrestling doesn't have to exist in a vacuum, the the excitement can be contagious if we get it consistently in front of the potential audience. You and others in the state are helping to demonstrate that. Kudos
  4. http://yappi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=309111&page=3 3/4s of the way down the page is the video for the finals. Garbage locked hands call.
  5. It's telling the kids their hard work should go unrecognized so that a coach can have a perceived advantage come sectional time. It doesn't make sense to me, maybe there is other rationale behind it, I'm just not seeing it.
  6. I would venture to guess that your V2 team has more kids than many of the V1 teams they face. So by inviting Carrol's V2 schools would be getting more matches for their kids, and in turn fewer FFs. I also understand the stigma associated with a V2 loss and wasnt trying to say it was completely without merit. More a matter of how much merit. At some level arent we placating a loser mentality? I dont say that to be cruel, it just doesn't seem like the kid was all that into wrestling if he quits because he got beat by Perry or Portages V2. The reason the V2 beats the V1 is because he's put more time and effort into it (athletic freaks aside). So taking away opportunities from V2 kids seems all stick and no carrot to me.
  7. You can call it dramatization, but that's essentially what we are telling kids. The schools saying no thanks to V2 competition are also likely adding to FF total you have mentioned. With all the problems facing small school participation (near all of which we cant regulate away) i doubt losing to V2 opponents is in the top 5 Im right with you hoping the number of FF drop, but overall participation numbers and decreasing forfeits arent completely corollary. I think the most important thing for wrestling in Indiana is to get more kids wrestling, and im less concerned with where those numbers come from, just that they are there. It just seems the participation discussions blur into parity and im not convinced that is one of the main things holding back numbers.
  8. You raise a valid point as it relates to V2 teams disproportionately impacting large programs, but that doesn't make it a bad thing, just not a one size fits all fix. Clearly if you cant fill your 14 man V1 team a V2 team isnt for your program. If we want to boost overall numbers we get the most impact when our solutions affect the largest segments of HS students. Nearly 2/3 of our students go to big schools, so anything that helps with rentention for big schools is a good thing. Particularly when it doesn't take away opportunities for small schools. "Sorry kid you're blocked by a SP, but you're too good to wrestle other team's varsity kids because you may hurt their feelings and they'll quit. You dont mind wrestling JV tournaments your jr and sr year do you?" I'm not sure this is the path to higher numbers or better wrestling in Indiana.
  9. The interviewer asked him about his decision to sit out his final 2 years of HS. http://s200.trackwrestling.com/tw/PortalPlayer.jsp?TIM=1491050356064&twSessionId=nxfrdlzbxrgbmgk&videoId=369628076
  10. A couple thoughts i have stem from what many of the coaches are already doing, and that's reaching out for support from other sports/depts within the school, and take it a few steps further. 1) Reach out the Band Director and sell him on the idea of his/her kids performing at your home meets. It may not be that hard of a sell, as it gives their kids another opportunity to perform, and very close to home. This would not only have a big impact on the atmosphere and environment but also attendance as you'd have the band kids parents there as well. Even a small jazz band group would help pump energy into your gym, and with the Band Director overseeing the performance it wouldn't add to the already long list of items that a coach has to intensely manage. 2) Reach out to the Art Teacher(s) in your school, and see if you can find talented art students to make meet/event posters. You can have them made like concert posters, with even possible art references to some or one of the pieces the band might be playing at your event. Or you could take them in the direction I'm sure Fabio would approve of, and gear them like WWE promotions, maybe even providing feature matchups or your star wrestlers you would like to highlight. The art dept might also be able to help with some cool wrestling related decorations for your room. (possible improving the wrestlers practice experience or the coaches) 3) Reach out to the Journalism dept, or school newspaper. See if you can get an underclassmen or two to develop as your team reporters. They would be able to help cover or photo your wrestlers and even write stories (to be approved by an appointed member of the coaching staff) This would help get the stories out that local papers have room for but the coaches often don't have the time with all the other hats they are wearing. I'll add a few more later, but I'm interested in hearing the thoughts of everyone.
  11. Whether our goals are to improve participation rates, quality of wrestlers, parity, media exposure, attendance or all of the above, evaluating how we can improve the "Wrestling Experience" for all consumers is crucial. What are your thoughts on improving the Wrestling Experience for one or all of these respective groups? 1) Wrestlers 2) Fans 3) Parents 4) Coaches 5) Referees 6) Student Body (non-wrestlers) Secondarily how do believe that would or wouldn't impact the other consumer groups
  12. I really appreciate all your explanations and agree with most of the points you've made. Particularly as it relates to getting the best teams there, because I think it is doing a very good job. I totally get that it is measuring the top 8 as it should, but when B is better than A in every measurable way 1-4 the system is placing a higher value on the 5-8 as it relates to the regional scoring value. I don't think an argument has been made against this point. Now placing a higher value on the 5-8 may be the correct point of emphasis (not intentionally speaking) to truly assess the overall strength of the regional, but I wasn't necessarily making an argument against that either. 5-8 finishers who don't advance can't be measured against their SS peers in the same way that 1-4 can, so I believe it was entirely logical to compare A & B from that perspective. What my comparisons didn't allow was real assessment of the 5-8 which for the system, as it has been pointed out, is measured using dual results submitted. (Which seems to be the only way to measure this group, but not quite the apples to apples comparison you get with the 1-4) Ultimately the proof is in the pudding and I think it's a very good system that's picking overwhelmingly the correct teams. Maligned's point (made via the table) about a team from B being a write-in over a team that the model had picked is a very good one and speaks to the corrective balances they have in within the system. Thanks to everyone for playing along, and I'll just have to go away with the changed belief that 5-8 finishers do have a disproportionate impact on the overall regional strength as it relates to the regional advancement values and it works within the system as a whole.
  13. Absolutely, I was only limiting within the frame of his question. I think wrestle backs at every stage would be great, but if I had to choose just one it would be hard to pick between state and semi state.
  14. We are seeing very low success rates for the 4th place finishers, so it suggests we'd have most all the kids with realistic SS advancement potential in the field. Should we go back to Top 3? Yes, but only if there were full wrestlebacks at Reg. Yes, as it appears there is a substantially dropoff (on average) from the 3 to 4 spot (at least in terms of SS performance) 103 to 106 - Very good question, unfortunately I don't know the answer, but I think it would also be interesting to see how removing a middle weight has impacted forfeits.
  15. Sometimes you can lead a horse to water....
  16. I obviously haven't done a good job making my point. I understand that I'm talking about a small piece of the whole puzzle, and viewing things in isolation (without context of goal) can sometimes result in a distorted view. The process as a whole is designed to pick the best dual teams for the IHSWCA state duals, and I think it's doing a very good job. That said I still feel there is value in investigating the accuracy of the results the system is giving us, and there are only so many ways in which to accomplish this. Looking at the 1-4 finishers doesn't give us a look at the whole regional field but it best evaluates the ones who advance. If B is better by every objective metric in places 1-4, then it stands to reason that the aspect of the system (all various elements combined) designating regional values is placing more emphasis on the 5-8 finishers. Could this be an anomaly, absolutely.
  17. I get what you are saying, but how then do you evaluate the accuracy of the system (as it relates to regional values) after the fact? Or do we just assume it's placing the appropriate values for advancement on a given regional and not worry about ever attempting to gauge accuracy after the fact?
  18. LOL. You are correct those were the two I was comparing but I think another regional in the FW SS has the "Logansport" title on lockdown. The second example I provided deals strictly with the probability of running into what we can all agree (based on objective metrics) are better 1-2 seeds. Going further if the 3-4s are of comparable quality (again based on objective metrics) it is clear that in this specific instance the totality of the input data is valuing the quality of 5-8 place finishers at a higher level. If you don't believe looking at the 1st round of SS results is a fair and objective way to evaluate the output, what do you suggest would be? There has to be an objective means to analyze the accuracy of the output, and I would argue that performance data outside of the input criteria, provides the best vehicle to do just that.
  19. You are not following my point. I'm not saying the SS data I have provided is a part of the input criteria, but rather a means in which to judge the output. I think most would agree that the 1st round SS results is a fair and objective way to evaluate the 1-4 finishers from respective regionals in the same SS. Obviously you cant evaluate wrestlers 5-8 at SS, but you can easily see they are the finishing group the output is skewed towards. (I'm not implying the input has been intentionally weighted towards 5-8, this has just been a result in this specific instance) The examples deal with simple probability, not perceived notions. I understand this is a small part of the total process, and this could be a statistical anomaly. I think the process as a whole is very good, but even good processes needed unbiased metrics in which to evaluate the output (output being the values assigned to regionals for advancement scoring purposes)
  20. The system is attempting to evaluate how difficult it is to advance in that given regional. Only 4 wrestlers advance to SS, so it's measuring how difficult it is to be one of those 4. The quality of 5-8 plays a factor for sure, but you would ostensibly have to beat someone from that top 4 to advance. A & B are in the same SS. So to then evaluate the performance of the 3/4 finishers in 1st round of SS is a fair way to compare quality of the 3/4s for A&B, and in turn evaluate the difficulty to advance. Another way to look at is, if you swap A1-4 with B1-4, how would those outcomes look. The statistics above reflect that the we would see a similar number advance from either, suggesting the difficulty to advance is comparable in both A & B. Or finally: I take the 5th from A and put him in B, despite having lesser 6-8 wrestlers in B, A5 has 2/3 greater chance of running into a state qualifier first round of regional B. So wouldn't be easier to advance out of A? The same would hold true for all 5-8 finishers in A.
  21. I agree 100% with the image aspect. The singlet has associations, that are not exactly conducive to recruitment of youth and middle school aged boys. Ever looked up singlets on Ebay?
  22. If B has better 1/2 and equal 3/4 to A (which is fact not opinion) then the system is valuing 5-8 at a much greater level. Which I would argue is less indicative of the difficulty to advance than the quality of 1-4. Whether intended or not the system is placing a much higher value on the 5-8 than it is 1-4, as it relates to the regional values. Ultimately you have to have a means to test the accuracy of the predictive model, SS 1st round gives us the best to gauge finishers 1-4. So if the SS 1st round #'s indicate B is superior at 1-4, then model is skewing heavily in favor of 5-8 quality. (which is the metric most difficult to verify)
  23. I disagree, as how do you evaluate the accuracy of the predictive model? Your second point is off base as well, as the 2 yr or 1 yr results show the similar success rates. (actually more favorable to B ) I probably should have prefaced the whole thing by stating that I'm very appreciative to hard work Maligned and others have put into creating this. It's critical that we have an unbiased system to pick the best teams for team state, and I think this system is a very good one. Like all the best systems it is not without flaws, I'm simply pointing out what appears to me to be a flaw within the system.
  24. I absolutely get your point. The comparison I provided only looked at top end and your evaluation is looking at top (1/2), middle (3/4), and even bottom (5/6), to evaluate the difficulty of navigating your way thru a given regional. So if the B is better at the top than A it would stand to reason that the 3/4 and 5/6 finishers for A would be significantly better if you are assessing a 2 point value advantage for A, correct? One good metric to test this (as many suggested in the 3A topic) is to evaluate the SS ticket rounders. If the predictive model holds out A should have a sizeable advantage in the performance of it's 3/4 finishers in the 1st round of the same SS that B competes in. I have totaled the 1st round victories by 3/4 place finishers at each respective regional. Regional A Year 3rd 4th 2013 7 1 2014 4 2015 4 2016 6 2017 4 Totals 25 wins by 3rd 1 win by 4th Regional B Year 3rd 4th 2013 5 2 2014 4 2015 5 1 2016 6 2017 4 Totals 24 wins by 3rd 3 wins by 4th So when you evaluate the on the best metric we have available they are near equal in regards to 3rd place finisher performance, and B hold a slight count edge (large % edge) on 4th place finisher performance. Which leaves us with the 5/6 place finishers. Regional A has a 2 point higher "escapability" value than Regional B, despite B having a better top end and equal middle. Which gives the impression that the 5/6 placer performance (which you can't measure) has been severely over valued.
  25. Thanks. I figured "tradition" and "no wimps" was part of it, but the MMA aspect for youth I wasn't familiar with. I guess I saw the MMA as a positive (it's on TV and wrestlers and wrestling skills are discussed frequently) but I certainly could see where it wouldn't be perceived that way by some parents. Maligned, Do you think there is potential for wrestling to have too strong an association with MMA, by going to the compression gear, and thus negatively effecting our ability to recruit new athletes? Or would you dismiss it along with the other 2 examples of others rationale you provided.
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