Lee & Retherford

[SIACfan]

Both Spencer Lee & Zane Retherford qualified for the 2024 Olympics to give the US men's freestyle team a full lineup in Paris.

 

Lee went undefeated in impressive fashion to qualify.

 

Retherford lost in the round of 16 to the Mongolian Ochir who then pulled him into repechage where Zane went 4-0 to qualify.

 

Let's go USA!

[Dingo Brigade]

VERY impressed by both of them. Lee was dominant except against the guy from China. Rutherford had to win 4 matches this morning to storm through repechage. Both have good medal chances. The whole men's team seems very, very capable of doing serious damage in Paris.

[Disco]

Great showing for the Americans 

[SIACfan]

13 hours ago, Dingo Brigade said:

The whole men's team seems very, very capable of doing serious damage in Paris.

 

This is certainly correct.

 

Spencer Lee 57 kg - while Lee is only ranked #26 by the UWW, he is clearly a medal contender

Zain Retherford 65 kg - while unranked at 65 kg, he is ranked #2 at 70 kg

Kyle Dake 74 kg - is the #1 ranked freestyle wrestler in the world at this weight

Aaron Brooks 84 kg - while unranked, he beat the 'Magic Man' David Taylor who is ranked #2 in the world for his spot on the team

Kyle Snyder 97 kg - #2 ranked wrestler at this weight

Mason Parris 125 kg - #3 ranked wrestler at this weight

[maligned]

4 hours ago, SIACfan said:

 

This is certainly correct.

 

Spencer Lee 57 kg - while Lee is only ranked #26 by the UWW, he is clearly a medal contender

Zain Retherford 65 kg - while unranked at 65 kg, he is ranked #2 at 70 kg

Kyle Dake 74 kg - is the #1 ranked freestyle wrestler in the world at this weight

Aaron Brooks 84 kg - while unranked, he beat the 'Magic Man' David Taylor who is ranked #2 in the world for his spot on the team

Kyle Snyder 97 kg - #2 ranked wrestler at this weight

Mason Parris 125 kg - #3 ranked wrestler at this weight

I said this on another site:

 

I really like all 6 guys' quality, for sure. We haven't had a group entering the Olympics in the last few cycles where the guy with the worst odds for medaling (Zain) probably has a 40% chance or better to get hardware. 

 

With that said, it's been a couple cycles since we've had zero gold medal favorites. Our floors are higher, but our ceilings are probably a little lower with this group.

 

I'm guessing an objective oddsmaker would put our medal over/unders at 1 for gold and about 4.5 for medals. That would mean a gold from Lee/Dake/AB, four or five medals total, and one or two disappointed guys losing to a world-class dynamic performance at an inopportune time.

 

As a fan, though, I definitely think 6 medals and a couple golds are possible.

 

What say you, @Dingo Brigade?

[SIACfan]

3 hours ago, maligned said:

I'm guessing an objective oddsmaker would put our medal over/unders at 1 for gold and about 4.5 for medals. That would mean a gold from Lee/Dake/AB, four or five medals total, and one or two disappointed guys losing to a world-class dynamic performance at an inopportune time.

 

 

Given the competition, I won't be surprised to see 1 or 2 of our guys fall a little short. But I also won't be surprised to see all 6 medal. They all are capable.

 

And from your description, you seem to see Lee, Drake & Brooks as the most likely to end up on top the podium. So that leads me to a few questions for you.

1) What kind of chance do you give Lee at Gold?

2) How about Brooks? Does beating Taylor automatically put him in Gold contention?

3) Doesn't Snyder at least have a punchers chance at Gold?

4) Retherford won Gold at 70 kg in 2023. Can he shock the world & take Gold?

[MattM]

1 hour ago, SIACfan said:

2) How about Brooks? Does beating Taylor automatically put him in Gold contention?

From a different perspective, some of our resident Iranian contingent in their thread seems to think their guy Yazdani matches up better against Brooks than he had with Taylor.  Though it clear that being unknown at the senior level of freestyle wrestler would also make opponents a little more cautious with how they may approach the match. 

[maligned]

14 hours ago, SIACfan said:

 

Given the competition, I won't be surprised to see 1 or 2 of our guys fall a little short. But I also won't be surprised to see all 6 medal. They all are capable.

 

And from your description, you seem to see Lee, Drake & Brooks as the most likely to end up on top the podium. So that leads me to a few questions for you.

1) What kind of chance do you give Lee at Gold?

2) How about Brooks? Does beating Taylor automatically put him in Gold contention?

3) Doesn't Snyder at least have a punchers chance at Gold?

4) Retherford won Gold at 70 kg in 2023. Can he shock the world & take Gold?

The world rankings are based on a mechanical scoring system for earning points at certain events. You could pin everyone at the Worlds, not wrestle any other tournaments, and be far down the rankings. It's not intuitive at all. It's a "pretty good at the tournaments you wrestled" award for those who wrestle a lot of the correct events. Look at Flo's international rankings they just released. They're a lot more accurate. Brooks #1, Dake #2, Snyder and Parris #4, Retherford #6, Lee #9 (this is the one that seems a little off, but justifiable based on lack of top wins).

 

Your discussion points from above:

 

1) I think Lee can win gold. He has the talent, for sure. He's shown, though, that athletic, explosive scorers like Ramos at the NCAA level and Zou that he faced at this tournament will give him problems. And he'll need to beat about 3 of those to get the gold. Micic has developed funky scrambling and counter defense that keeps up with that type and Gilman has insane head and hands defense. Lee hasn't shown either of those, so it's worrisome when he'll have to face a few guys with Zou-level athleticism.

 

2) A little bit related here with Brooks: he's shown he can be scored on more easily than a Taylor or Yazdani. I'd probably give Brooks our best shot at gold--but he absolutely could take a silly loss (like J'Den Cox did his first couple international tournaments) before he even meets a Yazdani. That's simply because of inexperience with the sorts of attacks and savvy he'll see that work differently from U.S. folk/free hybrid wrestlers. And then there's Yazdani. Other than Taylor, Yazdani hasn't even had a close call, domestically or internationally, in any match since he moved up to 86kg in 2017. He's 85-0 against super tough Iranians, Russians and all the Russian exports to other countries, and everything else internationally since February 2016--other than Taylor. Brooks on the other hand looked vulnerable in all of his Olympic Trials matches. All this to say...he's an otherworldly talent that absolutely can beat Yazdani and everyone else, but we need to see what he looks like internationally. 

 

3) For sure there's a puncher's chance with Snyder and Parris--but it's not likely. In Parris' case, Zare of Iran is a serious, serious roadblock. He was very young at the last Olympics. A few months after the Olympics, he destroyed the long-standing "Big 2" (Geno of Georgia and Akgul of Turkey) that gave Steveson good matches at the Olympics--and he hasn't had a close match since and has won 3 straight world titles. He's a beast that would be favored for gold even with Steveson in the mix. Plus, Parris has shown he's close with Geno and Akgul--but not that he can beat them. In Snyder's case, he pulled out a super-exciting, super-tight win over Sadulaev the first time they met a few weeks of bad training into Sad's first time up at 97. After that, it was total domination by Sad. Now add in the ultra-talented Tazhudinov that beat Sad, teched Kyle, and smashed everyone else at last worlds and every other tournament. Plus there's the young, talented Azarpira from Iran that just took out Kyle in their first encounter a couple months ago too. It's really, really hard to see where Kyle beats two of those guys to win gold. He's on his downswing athletically while Sad's still mid-prime and the other two are on sharp upward trajectories that will only look more impressive at the Olympics.

 

4) In short, it would be arguably a bigger shock than Parris or Snyder if Retherford took gold. He won a non-Olympic weight in an Olympic-qualifying World Championships last year. That means anybody and everybody that can get to 65kg did it and left 70kg much weaker than it normally already is as a non-Olympic weight. His biggest weakness is athleticism against elite guys like Ochir that just beat him. He faced none of that type last year. He'll have 10 with that explosiveness in his 16-man bracket at the Olympics. He'll be a clear underdog against 5 guys, and there will only be 2 or 3 very clear wins from among the 16. With that said, he's a warrior. Ultra-strong, well-conditioned, smart, experienced. He's capable of making a run and getting a medal. Gold is hard for me to imagine, though.

[ReformedPoster]

24 minutes ago, maligned said:

The world rankings are based on a mechanical scoring system for earning points at certain events. You could pin everyone at the Worlds, not wrestle any other tournaments, and be far down the rankings. It's not intuitive at all. It's a "pretty good at the tournaments you wrestled" award for those who wrestle a lot of the correct events. Look at Flo's international rankings they just released. They're a lot more accurate. Brooks #1, Dake #2, Snyder and Parris #4, Retherford #6, Lee #9 (this is the one that seems a little off, but justifiable based on lack of top wins).

 

Your discussion points from above:

 

1) I think Lee can win gold. He has the talent, for sure. He's shown, though, that athletic, explosive scorers like Ramos at the NCAA level and Zou that he faced at this tournament will give him problems. And he'll need to beat about 3 of those to get the gold. Micic has developed funky scrambling and counter defense that keeps up with that type and Gilman has insane head and hands defense. Lee hasn't shown either of those, so it's worrisome when he'll have to face a few guys with Zou-level athleticism.

 

2) A little bit related here with Brooks: he's shown he can be scored on more easily than a Taylor or Yazdani. I'd probably give Brooks our best shot at gold--but he absolutely could take a silly loss (like J'Den Cox did his first couple international tournaments) before he even meets a Yazdani. That's simply because of inexperience with the sorts of attacks and savvy he'll see that work differently from U.S. folk/free hybrid wrestlers. And then there's Yazdani. Other than Taylor, Yazdani hasn't even had a close call, domestically or internationally, in any match since he moved up to 86kg in 2017. He's 85-0 against super tough Iranians, Russians and all the Russian exports to other countries, and everything else internationally since February 2016--other than Taylor. Brooks on the other hand looked vulnerable in all of his Olympic Trials matches. All this to say...he's an otherworldly talent that absolutely can beat Yazdani and everyone else, but we need to see what he looks like internationally. 

 

3) For sure there's a puncher's chance with Snyder and Parris--but it's not likely. In Parris' case, Zare of Iran is a serious, serious roadblock. He was very young at the last Olympics. A few months after the Olympics, he destroyed the long-standing "Big 2" (Geno of Georgia and Akgul of Turkey) that gave Steveson good matches at the Olympics--and he hasn't had a close match since and has won 3 straight world titles. He's a beast that would be favored for gold even with Steveson in the mix. Plus, Parris has shown he's close with Geno and Akgul--but not that he can beat them. In Snyder's case, he pulled out a super-exciting, super-tight win over Sadulaev the first time they met a few weeks of bad training into Sad's first time up at 97. After that, it was total domination by Sad. Now add in the ultra-talented Tazhudinov that beat Sad, teched Kyle, and smashed everyone else at last worlds and every other tournament. Plus there's the young, talented Azarpira from Iran that just took out Kyle in their first encounter a couple months ago too. It's really, really hard to see where Kyle beats two of those guys to win gold. He's on his downswing athletically while Sad's still mid-prime and the other two are on sharp upward trajectories that will only look more impressive at the Olympics.

 

4) In short, it would be arguably a bigger shock than Parris or Snyder if Retherford took gold. He won a non-Olympic weight in an Olympic-qualifying World Championships last year. That means anybody and everybody that can get to 65kg did it and left 70kg much weaker than it normally already is as a non-Olympic weight. His biggest weakness is athleticism against elite guys like Ochir that just beat him. He faced none of that type last year. He'll have 10 with that explosiveness in his 16-man bracket at the Olympics. He'll be a clear underdog against 5 guys, and there will only be 2 or 3 very clear wins from among the 16. With that said, he's a warrior. Ultra-strong, well-conditioned, smart, experienced. He's capable of making a run and getting a medal. Gold is hard for me to imagine, though.

Great analysis

 

Spencer Lee is the best on the team at transitioning from his takedowns to his par terre.  If he get on top, he's likely going to turn people multiple times.  I thought he was a little cautious against Zou and got hit with a 4 pt move.  From there, Spencer controlled him and the match. I'm very much looking forward to seeing him vs the top guys at 57 kg.  He appears healthy and his gas tank seems good enough.  A healthy spencer lee is a clear gold medal favorite.

 

I'm of the opinion that just because Brooks beat Taylor, it doesn't make him the gold medal favorite.  But he is a medal favorite.  I think 86 is probably the "easiest" of the 6 weights as there were 2 guys (now 1) that were head and shoulders above everybody else.

 

Zain will have his work cut out for him  His draw will be a determining factor if he medals or not.

 

Parris can and likely will medal, but Zare has taken over this weight and will be a huge roadblock to gold for Mason.  Can he beat him, yes.  Will he beat him?  I'll say no.

 

I think Snyder's gold medal days are behind him.  He should medal, but I don't think it will be gold.

 

Dake and Sidakov should meet in the finals.

 

I think we get 5 medals, but maybe only 1 gold.

Edited May 14, 2024 by ReformedPoster

[SIACfan]

34 minutes ago, maligned said:

The world rankings are based on a mechanical scoring system for earning points at certain events. You could pin everyone at the Worlds, not wrestle any other tournaments, and be far down the rankings. It's not intuitive at all. It's a "pretty good at the tournaments you wrestled" award for those who wrestle a lot of the correct events. Look at Flo's international rankings they just released. They're a lot more accurate. Brooks #1, Dake #2, Snyder and Parris #4, Retherford #6, Lee #9 (this is the one that seems a little off, but justifiable based on lack of top wins).

 

Your discussion points from above:

 

1) I think Lee can win gold. He has the talent, for sure. He's shown, though, that athletic, explosive scorers like Ramos at the NCAA level and Zou that he faced at this tournament will give him problems. And he'll need to beat about 3 of those to get the gold. Micic has developed funky scrambling and counter defense that keeps up with that type and Gilman has insane head and hands defense. Lee hasn't shown either of those, so it's worrisome when he'll have to face a few guys with Zou-level athleticism.

 

2) A little bit related here with Brooks: he's shown he can be scored on more easily than a Taylor or Yazdani. I'd probably give Brooks our best shot at gold--but he absolutely could take a silly loss (like J'Den Cox did his first couple international tournaments) before he even meets a Yazdani. That's simply because of inexperience with the sorts of attacks and savvy he'll see that work differently from U.S. folk/free hybrid wrestlers. And then there's Yazdani. Other than Taylor, Yazdani hasn't even had a close call, domestically or internationally, in any match since he moved up to 86kg in 2017. He's 85-0 against super tough Iranians, Russians and all the Russian exports to other countries, and everything else internationally since February 2016--other than Taylor. Brooks on the other hand looked vulnerable in all of his Olympic Trials matches. All this to say...he's an otherworldly talent that absolutely can beat Yazdani and everyone else, but we need to see what he looks like internationally. 

 

3) For sure there's a puncher's chance with Snyder and Parris--but it's not likely. In Parris' case, Zare of Iran is a serious, serious roadblock. He was very young at the last Olympics. A few months after the Olympics, he destroyed the long-standing "Big 2" (Geno of Georgia and Akgul of Turkey) that gave Steveson good matches at the Olympics--and he hasn't had a close match since and has won 3 straight world titles. He's a beast that would be favored for gold even with Steveson in the mix. Plus, Parris has shown he's close with Geno and Akgul--but not that he can beat them. In Snyder's case, he pulled out a super-exciting, super-tight win over Sadulaev the first time they met a few weeks of bad training into Sad's first time up at 97. After that, it was total domination by Sad. Now add in the ultra-talented Tazhudinov that beat Sad, teched Kyle, and smashed everyone else at last worlds and every other tournament. Plus there's the young, talented Azarpira from Iran that just took out Kyle in their first encounter a couple months ago too. It's really, really hard to see where Kyle beats two of those guys to win gold. He's on his downswing athletically while Sad's still mid-prime and the other two are on sharp upward trajectories that will only look more impressive at the Olympics.

 

4) In short, it would be arguably a bigger shock than Parris or Snyder if Retherford took gold. He won a non-Olympic weight in an Olympic-qualifying World Championships last year. That means anybody and everybody that can get to 65kg did it and left 70kg much weaker than it normally already is as a non-Olympic weight. His biggest weakness is athleticism against elite guys like Ochir that just beat him. He faced none of that type last year. He'll have 10 with that explosiveness in his 16-man bracket at the Olympics. He'll be a clear underdog against 5 guys, and there will only be 2 or 3 very clear wins from among the 16. With that said, he's a warrior. Ultra-strong, well-conditioned, smart, experienced. He's capable of making a run and getting a medal. Gold is hard for me to imagine, though.

 

I appreciate the breakdown and in-depth insight - thanks!

 

1) Interesting take on Lee. Hopefully being healthy is the difference for him.

 

2) I was kind of thinking what you said of Brooks. Will his lack of experience be a factor?

 

3) I knew that Parris is probably facing an uphill battle, but I didn't realize that Snyder had fallen behind that many guys at only 28 years old.

 

4) Great insight on Retherford. That is the kind of stuff I have no idea about on the international scene.

Edited May 14, 2024 by SIACfan

[maligned]

13 minutes ago, ReformedPoster said:

Great analysis

 

Spencer Lee is the best on the team at transitioning from his takedowns to his par terre.  If he get on top, he's likely going to turn people multiple times.  I thought he was a little cautious against Zou and got hit with a 4 pt move.  From there, Spencer controlled him and the match. I'm very much looking forward to seeing him vs the top guys at 57 kg.  He appears healthy and his gas tank seems good enough.  A healthy spencer lee is a clear gold medal favorite.

 

I'm of the opinion that just because Brooks beat Taylor, it doesn't make him the gold medal favorite.  But he is a medal favorite.  I think 86 is probably the "easiest" of the 6 weights as there were 2 guys (now 1) that were head and shoulders above everybody else.

 

Zain will have his work cut out for him  His draw will be a determining factor if he medals or not.

 

Parris can and likely will medal, but Zare has taken over this weight and will be a huge roadblock to gold for Mason.  Can he beat him, yes.  Will he beat him?  I'll say no.

 

I think Snyder's gold medal days are behind him.  He should medal, but I don't think it will be gold.

 

Dake and Sidakov should meet in the finals.

 

I think we get 5 medals, but maybe only 1 gold.

 

5 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

I appreciate the breakdown and in depth insight - thanks!

 

1) Interesting take on Lee. Hopefully being healthy is the difference for him.

 

2) I was kind of thinking what you said of Brooks. Will his lack of experience be a factor?

 

3) I knew that Parris is probably facing an uphill battle, but I didn't realize that Snyder had fallen behind that many guys at only 28 years old.

 

4) Great insight on Retherford. That is the kind of stuff I have no idea about on the international scene.

You know what I did completely space out on about Snyder, though? Sadulaev probably won't be there. I totally forgot he's been ruled ineligible. I'd still expect like a 1 in 4 chance that Russia and its behind-the-scenes dealings find a way to get him in, but as of now he's out because of his political/military ties.

 

So his situation is then this: 

Tazhudinov definitely on the opposite side and an 85-90% favorite over him

Magomedov on Snyder's side for sure. Snyder's probably 75% over him.

Azarpira randomly drawn in. I'd put Azarpira 55% over him.

Zhabrailov of Russia randomly drawn in. I'd guess Snyder's 80% over him.

 

Sad not being there is a big deal, though. Tazhudinov is still so young, and we don't know if he has downswings or brain farts (like against his 30yo countryman Zhabrailov or fellow young gun Azarpira? or underestimating Snyder in a second match?). I'd put Snyder's medal chances at about 90%, and I'd elevate his gold chances from the maybe 2% I thought to closer to 10 or 15%. A puncher's chance, as you originally suggested, @SIACfan, would be my updated guess.  

[maligned]

35 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

I appreciate the breakdown and in depth insight - thanks!

 

1) Interesting take on Lee. Hopefully being healthy is the difference for him.

 

2) I was kind of thinking what you said of Brooks. Will his lack of experience be a factor?

 

3) I knew that Parris is probably facing an uphill battle, but I didn't realize that Snyder had fallen behind that many guys at only 28 years old.

 

4) Great insight on Retherford. That is the kind of stuff I have no idea about on the international scene.

Also, it is so funny to think of Snyder as only 28 when he's been around so long. He's clearly going to be able to wrestle at a high level for another cycle at least if he wants it. But he looked so impressive physically those first few years. He's starting to get a little bit of a middle we haven't seen before (I thought Taylor looked the "softest" he's ever looked, too, by the way at OTTs). Sadulaev has always had such insane mat speed, and when you add in the very young Tazhudinov and Azarpira that look so athletic versus Snyder--it gives the impression (perhaps falsely?) that Kyle's lost a step. 

Edited May 14, 2024 by maligned

[The Genius]

On 5/14/2024 at 1:15 PM, maligned said:

The world rankings are based on a mechanical scoring system for earning points at certain events. You could pin everyone at the Worlds, not wrestle any other tournaments, and be far down the rankings. It's not intuitive at all. It's a "pretty good at the tournaments you wrestled" award for those who wrestle a lot of the correct events. Look at Flo's international rankings they just released. They're a lot more accurate. Brooks #1, Dake #2, Snyder and Parris #4, Retherford #6, Lee #9 (this is the one that seems a little off, but justifiable based on lack of top wins).

 

Your discussion points from above:

 

1) I think Lee can win gold. He has the talent, for sure. He's shown, though, that athletic, explosive scorers like Ramos at the NCAA level and Zou that he faced at this tournament will give him problems. And he'll need to beat about 3 of those to get the gold. Micic has developed funky scrambling and counter defense that keeps up with that type and Gilman has insane head and hands defense. Lee hasn't shown either of those, so it's worrisome when he'll have to face a few guys with Zou-level athleticism.

 

2) A little bit related here with Brooks: he's shown he can be scored on more easily than a Taylor or Yazdani. I'd probably give Brooks our best shot at gold--but he absolutely could take a silly loss (like J'Den Cox did his first couple international tournaments) before he even meets a Yazdani. That's simply because of inexperience with the sorts of attacks and savvy he'll see that work differently from U.S. folk/free hybrid wrestlers. And then there's Yazdani. Other than Taylor, Yazdani hasn't even had a close call, domestically or internationally, in any match since he moved up to 86kg in 2017. He's 85-0 against super tough Iranians, Russians and all the Russian exports to other countries, and everything else internationally since February 2016--other than Taylor. Brooks on the other hand looked vulnerable in all of his Olympic Trials matches. All this to say...he's an otherworldly talent that absolutely can beat Yazdani and everyone else, but we need to see what he looks like internationally. 

 

3) For sure there's a puncher's chance with Snyder and Parris--but it's not likely. In Parris' case, Zare of Iran is a serious, serious roadblock. He was very young at the last Olympics. A few months after the Olympics, he destroyed the long-standing "Big 2" (Geno of Georgia and Akgul of Turkey) that gave Steveson good matches at the Olympics--and he hasn't had a close match since and has won 3 straight world titles. He's a beast that would be favored for gold even with Steveson in the mix. Plus, Parris has shown he's close with Geno and Akgul--but not that he can beat them. In Snyder's case, he pulled out a super-exciting, super-tight win over Sadulaev the first time they met a few weeks of bad training into Sad's first time up at 97. After that, it was total domination by Sad. Now add in the ultra-talented Tazhudinov that beat Sad, teched Kyle, and smashed everyone else at last worlds and every other tournament. Plus there's the young, talented Azarpira from Iran that just took out Kyle in their first encounter a couple months ago too. It's really, really hard to see where Kyle beats two of those guys to win gold. He's on his downswing athletically while Sad's still mid-prime and the other two are on sharp upward trajectories that will only look more impressive at the Olympics.

 

4) In short, it would be arguably a bigger shock than Parris or Snyder if Retherford took gold. He won a non-Olympic weight in an Olympic-qualifying World Championships last year. That means anybody and everybody that can get to 65kg did it and left 70kg much weaker than it normally already is as a non-Olympic weight. His biggest weakness is athleticism against elite guys like Ochir that just beat him. He faced none of that type last year. He'll have 10 with that explosiveness in his 16-man bracket at the Olympics. He'll be a clear underdog against 5 guys, and there will only be 2 or 3 very clear wins from among the 16. With that said, he's a warrior. Ultra-strong, well-conditioned, smart, experienced. He's capable of making a run and getting a medal. Gold is hard for me to imagine, though.

really good breakdown, hard to disagree with anything you said (you also phrased the higher floor but lower ceiling thing really well)

 

just two small technical corrections:

- Zare has not won 3 straight world titles. He dominated in 2021 for Gold (after Tokyo), but then lost a close match 4-2 to Taha in 2022 in the last 5 seconds to win Bronze, then dominated again in 2023 for another Gold. Zare vs Taha: 4-0, 2-4, 4-0. Zare vs Geno: 15-11, 3-6, 9-2, 11-0. Taha poses the biggest challenge to Zare given his physicality but Zare won't repeat his 2022 mistake and will likely dominate everyone again to win Gold. Fun fact: Zare only turned 23 a few months ago but if he wins Gold in Tokyo he will have 5 World/Olympic medals (3 Gold). 

- Azarpira has wrestled Snyder twice (the last match wasn't their first encounter). in the first match (Feb '23) Kyle won 3-0 but in their more recent match (Jan '24) Azarpira won 6-3. As you said, Azarpira is very young (22) and on an upward trajectory while Kyle is arguably plateauing.

 

btw I think it's not entirely settled that Sadulaev won't be going to Paris, there's still a chance he will be allowed to compete

[Dingo Brigade]

It's always true that the draw matters. For a variety of reasons, but especially if there's an opponent who is a bad match up for your wrestler getting knocked out before you have to face them. So many times that path to the finals makes a big difference in who makes it to the gold medal match. I feel like all of our gents can potentially beat nearly every opponent in each's respective weight class. Obviously it's very unlikely they will each beat every opponent but as Maligned said, the floor is high with this sextet. 

 No one is a gold favorite, again mentioned by Maligned, but they are all capable of gold or silver, in my opinion. Lee and Dake would be my favorites to win it all, but Parris, Retherford, Snyder and Brooks are SOOO good too. Having 6 weight classes just creates a surfeit of talent at each weight. In this case,  the end result is a loaded US team. I can't wait for this to start. There is nothing like the Olympics.

Hope Kayla and Sarah bring home some hardware. Pretty crazy that one out of every 4 wrestlers on the men's and women's teams is a Hoosier. Very nearly 1 out of 3 wrestlers from Indiana if Nick Lee beat Zain.

[SIACfan]

12 hours ago, The Genius said:

btw I think it's not entirely settled that Sadulaev won't be going to Paris, there's still a chance he will be allowed to compete

 

@maligned

You guys know a lot more about this stuff than I do, but how would he be allowed in now?

 

The athletes from Russia & Belarus have to compete as Individual Neutral Athletes. Since Sadulaev was not allowed to qualify as an individual, what possible spot could he take in the Olympics?

[maligned]

11 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

@maligned

You guys know a lot more about this stuff than I do, but how would he be allowed in now?

 

The athletes from Russia & Belarus have to compete as Individual Neutral Athletes. Since Sadulaev was not allowed to qualify as an individual, what possible spot could he take in the Olympics?

Even though they're labeled as "Individual Neutral Athletes" at the Games, Belarus and Russia are still being treated as if their nation qualified each weight and they can send whichever athlete they want at that weight, as long as they're approved by UWW and the IOC.

Athletes forbidden to go are ones where investigations have found ties to or support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Edited May 16, 2024 by maligned

[SIACfan]

3 hours ago, maligned said:

Even though they're labeled as "Individual Neutral Athletes" at the Games, Belarus and Russia are still being treated as if their nation qualified each weight and they can send whichever athlete they want at that weight, as long as they're approved by UWW and the IOC.

Athletes forbidden to go are ones where investigations have found ties to or support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

 

OK thanks.

 

Why am I not surprised. So even though Russia is banned as a team & their athletes must compete as individuals, they still hold spots as a team.

 

 

[Justdo^it135]

I think David Taylor would if competing be our best chance at a Gold.

 

Given Brooks will be competing at 86, I believe Dake to be our best chance at a Gold, but find it most likely that we will have 4-5 medalist none of which being Gold. 

 

I was quite disappointed with the results of our OTT, thinking multiple wrestlers were beaten on the day by opponents that will not perform as well against the international competition. 

[maligned]

1 hour ago, Justdo^it135 said:

I was quite disappointed with the results of our OTT, thinking multiple wrestlers were beaten on the day by opponents that will not perform as well against the international competition. 

Yeah, there are certainly arguments that Gilman's defense/physicality/senior-level experience, Mendez' pressure and athleticism, and Taylor's consistency and experience would have given us higher probabilities for success. 

[SIACfan]

3 hours ago, Justdo^it135 said:

I was quite disappointed with the results of our OTT, thinking multiple wrestlers were beaten on the day by opponents that will not perform as well against the international competition. 

 

Perhaps but I am glad that our wrestlers have to earn their spot, and that the powers that be don't step in & decide this guy or that guy is going instead because "we think" they give us a better chance.

[maligned]

3 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

Perhaps but I am glad that our wrestlers have to earn their spot, and that the powers that be don't step in & decide this guy or that guy is going instead because "we think" they give us a better chance.

My only beef there is that they've really mis-managed how they bracket the weights with the non-Olympic weight medalist getting a bye to the semi's. They should just empty out one quarter of the bracket, but they don't. They wrestle 2 regular bracket halves as normal--then give the 1-seed half a bye to the final and make the unlucky guys drawn into the other half face another match. So the 12 seed only has to win 3 to get to the final, but the 6 seed has to win 4? That makes no sense. I don't have a problem with them giving that bye to the semi's, but it needs to be done with an empty quarter and full bracketing of the other 3 quarters. All this to say...in a more equitable world, Mendez comes into the "semi-final" having only previously wrestled 2 matches instead of 3. His intensity, aggression, and physicality (the things that win him matches) were notably reduced by the time he'd finished 3 other wars and arrived at Zain in his 4th match. Meanwhile, Nick Lee is in the final having wrestled twice. 

[SIACfan]

39 minutes ago, maligned said:

My only beef there is that they've really mis-managed how they bracket the weights with the non-Olympic weight medalist getting a bye to the semi's. They should just empty out one quarter of the bracket, but they don't. They wrestle 2 regular bracket halves as normal--then give the 1-seed half a bye to the final and make the unlucky guys drawn into the other half face another match. So the 12 seed only has to win 3 to get to the final, but the 6 seed has to win 4? That makes no sense. I don't have a problem with them giving that bye to the semi's, but it needs to be done with an empty quarter and full bracketing of the other 3 quarters. All this to say...in a more equitable world, Mendez comes into the "semi-final" having only previously wrestled 2 matches instead of 3. His intensity, aggression, and physicality (the things that win him matches) were notably reduced by the time he'd finished 3 other wars and arrived at Zain in his 4th match. Meanwhile, Nick Lee is in the final having wrestled twice. 

 

I don't disagree that returning medalist &/or team members shouldn't get such a huge advantage with byes.

 

Just seed the tournament but then use normal brackets. Make even returning medalists earn their spot every year.

 

But I would hate the idea of replacing an individual who earned their spot with someone else simply because the powers that be think they are better, more experienced or match up better.

[Justdo^it135]

19 hours ago, SIACfan said:

 

Perhaps but I am glad that our wrestlers have to earn their spot, and that the powers that be don't step in & decide this guy or that guy is going instead because "we think" they give us a better chance.

I agree with you completely, and am still disappointed by the results.

 

Lee may very well go on and win Gold in Paris but I would feel more confident if we were sending Gilman. 

 

I think we have 4 better wrestlers at 65kg than Retherford. I would feel more confident sending any of:

- Nick Lee

- Yianni Diakomihalis

- Joey McKenna

- Jesse Mendez

 

I do not believe Aaron Brooks is at a level to consistently beat international competition. With that said I think he can win matches against superior wrestlers given he has the greatest sprawl I have ever seen of anyone at any level.

[ReformedPoster]

1 hour ago, Justdo^it135 said:

I agree with you completely, and am still disappointed by the results.

 

Lee may very well go on and win Gold in Paris but I would feel more confident if we were sending Gilman. 

 

I think we have 4 better wrestlers at 65kg than Retherford. I would feel more confident sending any of:

- Nick Lee

- Yianni Diakomihalis

- Joey McKenna

- Jesse Mendez

 

I do not believe Aaron Brooks is at a level to consistently beat international competition. With that said I think he can win matches against superior wrestlers given he has the greatest sprawl I have ever seen of anyone at any level.

Lee absolutely dominated Gilman.  The Gilman we saw at the OTT's isn't the same Gilman that was winning world/Olympic medals.  I'm not sure he get by Zou at the last chance qualifier.  Spencer Lee is clearly our best hope for a medal at 57 kg.

 

Zain is the reigning world champ, albeit at 70 kg.  He is also our best wrestler at 65 kg.  As much as I love Nick Lee, he wasn't close to beating Zain.  He also had an opportunity to qualify the weight and couldn't get it done.  I'm not sure Nick would have qualified the weight at the last chance.  Yianni looks done, McKenna isn't a serious threat.  Mendez was a handful for Zain, but again, could he have run that gauntlet at the last chance?  I'm not so sure.