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Lee vs Red


Champ98

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2 hours ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Just some rough numbers

250,000 boys high school wrestlers

2,500 or 1% wrestle DI

10 of them win a DI title each year

Over the course of a college wrestler's four year career the max percentage of college wrestlers to win a DI title is 1.6%(some repeat obviously). The percentage of high school wrestlers that win a DI title is .016%.

 

 

Here are some other numbers where I pulled most the info
https://collegewrestlingrecruiting.com/2nd-child-page/

 

What are the chances of Big 10 wrestler winning NCAA?  I'm sure it is significantly higher than say a wrestler from the SoCon or the MAC.

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4 hours ago, ReformedPoster said:

What are the chances of Big 10 wrestler winning NCAA?  I'm sure it is significantly higher than say a wrestler from the SoCon or the MAC.

That one is out of my league as far as statistics. I am good at math, but statistics is the only math class I got a B in ever!

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4 hours ago, Y2CJ41 said:

That one is out of my league as far as statistics. I am good at math, but statistics is the only math class I got a B in ever!

By far my worst class also and I have a math minor.

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13 hours ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Just some rough numbers

250,000 boys high school wrestlers

2,500 or 1% wrestle DI

10 of them win a DI title each year

Over the course of a college wrestler's four year career the max percentage of college wrestlers to win a DI title is 1.6%(some repeat obviously). The percentage of high school wrestlers that win a DI title is .016%.

 

 

Here are some other numbers where I pulled most the info
https://collegewrestlingrecruiting.com/2nd-child-page/

 

There have been 6 first-time champs per year the last 10 years. That means 6 per graduating class will ever win a title--about 1% of D1. So 1% of high schoolers make D1 and 1% of D1 win a title (1 in 10,000 high school wrestlers). 

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10 hours ago, ReformedPoster said:

What are the chances of Big 10 wrestler winning NCAA?  I'm sure it is significantly higher than say a wrestler from the SoCon or the MAC.

B10 guys win 60% of the titles with less than 20% of the schools.

 

Assuming all roster sizes are equal, B10 kids have a 3.2% chance (1 in 30) at a title sometime in their career and all the rest have about a 0.5% chance (1 in 200).

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3 hours ago, maligned said:

While we're at it, did you know you have a 1 in 6 chance of being in the big pro roundball league if you're born in America and you're at least 7 ft tall? That's 1 in 6 for the population..not just roundball players

Yeah, I think I could have been an NBA player, too … if I had been 7’ … instead of 5’6” … and if I could dribble and shoot.

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On 4/19/2022 at 12:23 PM, ReformedPoster said:

I think it is fair to ask the questions about Red's career.  He's a guy that was undefeated in HS, ranked #1 in the country coming out, etc.  I think just about everybody's expectations were that he would be an NCAA champ...

 

OK, I suppose it is fair but...

 

Maybe the most interesting stat would be to see what % of wrestlers who finish their HS career as the #1 ranked HS wrestler at their weight class end up winning a NCAA title?

 

HS, Schoolboy & Cadet success guarantees nothing. All individuals mature at different ages. It can & does make a difference for the ones who mature early. Then often you see that with time (& maturity from others) that the gap closes between these frontrunners & the rest of the pack.

 

But none of this takes away from what Chad has accomplished. I'm quite sure that his goal was to win a NCAA title, & I'm certain that he is to some degree disappointed he did not achieve that goal. But he should still be extremely proud of his college career, & most certainly has nothing to be ashamed of.

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20 hours ago, SIACfan said:

 

OK, I suppose it is fair but...

 

Maybe the most interesting stat would be to see what % of wrestlers who finish their HS career as the #1 ranked HS wrestler at their weight class end up winning a NCAA title?

 

HS, Schoolboy & Cadet success guarantees nothing. All individuals mature at different ages. It can & does make a difference for the ones who mature early. Then often you see that with time (& maturity from others) that the gap closes between these frontrunners & the rest of the pack.

 

But none of this takes away from what Chad has accomplished. I'm quite sure that his goal was to win a NCAA title, & I'm certain that he is to some degree disappointed he did not achieve that goal. But he should still be extremely proud of his college career, & most certainly has nothing to be ashamed of.

I don't know the percentage, but I can confidently say less than 25%. Only 6 per graduating class will ever win a title. With 14 high school weights, I'd suspect maybe 2 or 3 of those eventual 6 NCAA champs come from guys ranked #1 at the end of their senior year.

Edited by maligned
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Remember when freshman Red cement-mixed a two time defending national champion in the blood round and All-American’ed four years straight in college? He comes back for a fifth year and in my opinion gets screwed against the 3 seed (a guy who has multiple wins over one of the best Folkstyle wrestlers of all time)  which would have set him up to make the finals. 
 

Indiana wrestling and USA Wrestling are hitting all-time heights. If Yianni D was from Indiana, some people would say he has underachieved in college since he doesn’t have a senior world medal and came in as a cadet world champ. 
 

For Red to win NCAA’s he would have needed to beat Eirman who beat a world champion while in college (Stieber), Yianna who made the world team in college beating an all time great (Retherford), Lee who beat Yianni and many others, and countless other guys. 

He didn’t quite get an NCAA title. He was a 4x All-American. That is statistically just as hard to do for the weird stat angle this discussion took. 

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As you all know I am a MD fan Red has ZERO to hang his head about he has done a fantastic job in college, hopefully gaining college credits and a degree along the way. We don't know if this is the end if Chad's wrestling career and the beginning of a new one or if he continues to work towards other competitive goals. Either way I don't see him failing at life in general. Good luck Chad and good luck Nick wherever life takes you.

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On 4/21/2022 at 2:29 AM, maligned said:

B10 guys win 60% of the titles with less than 20% of the schools.

 

Assuming all roster sizes are equal, B10 kids have a 3.2% chance (1 in 30) at a title sometime in their career and all the rest have about a 0.5% chance (1 in 200).

 

There is B1G and then there is PSU.

 

Half of that 60% goes to one B1G school.

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On 3/19/2022 at 8:10 AM, Champ98 said:

How many people are surprised by the way these 2 wrestlers college careers ended up going? I am not surprised by Lee but I feel Chad never reach his potential. Was Nebraska the right choice as far as wrestling goes for him?

 

Wrestling is hard.

 

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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sCcESZRzBobVFbeJlkmYCtBAxZ2b0eVadBydOsDRtE8/edit?usp=sharing

 

Here are some stats, not complete, but enough of a picture of success of four-time champs in college.

 

Let's just say it this way.... there is no guarantee that high school success equates to collegiate success. In terms of 4x state champions across the country CJ had a TREMENDOUS career!

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On 4/20/2022 at 8:32 PM, Y2CJ41 said:

That one is out of my league as far as statistics. I am good at math, but statistics is the only math class I got a B in ever!

I do really well with stats. 

 

Thermostats, but still....

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