Sectional Disparity

[Coach Brobst]

Sitting in the stands waiting for our next match, some of the other coaches and I got to thinking how some Regionals pit a strong sectional vs a weaker one (our Regional--North Montgomery--being one). I decided to crunch the numbers this morning:

 

North Montgomery Regional SSQs:

Frankfort Sectional: 41

Crawfordsville Sectional: 15 (Zionsville had 9 by themselves, meaning 6 others from the whole sectional)

 

BY comparison, here are the other Regionals in the New Castle Semi-State

 

Pendleton Heights Regional SSQs:

Elwood Sectional: 25

Arsenal Tech: 31

 

Richmond Regional SSQs:

South Dearborn: 33

Shenandoah: 23

 

Perry Meridian SSQs:

Shelbyville: 28

Southport: 28

 

So from this, 2 questions we kicked around:

1) Is this happening at other Regionals, where one sectional dominates the other? If not, question 2 probably doesn't matter.
2) Do we care? Does it matter at all or does it all even out because they are the same Regional anyways?

 

 

[MUSKEEWRESTLER]

We used to have that at the Rochester regional before realignment.  Consistantly 75% ss qualifiers came from the Mishawaka sectional.

[maligned]

28 minutes ago, Coach Brobst said:

Sitting in the stands waiting for our next match, some of the other coaches and I got to thinking how some Regionals pit a strong sectional vs a weaker one (our Regional--North Montgomery--being one). I decided to crunch the numbers this morning:

 

North Montgomery Regional SSQs:

Frankfort Sectional: 41

Crawfordsville Sectional: 15 (Zionsville had 9 by themselves, meaning 6 others from the whole sectional)

 

BY comparison, here are the other Regionals in the New Castle Semi-State

 

Pendleton Heights Regional SSQs:

Elwood Sectional: 25

Arsenal Tech: 31

 

Richmond Regional SSQs:

South Dearborn: 33

Shenandoah: 23

 

Perry Meridian SSQs:

Shelbyville: 28

Southport: 28

 

So from this, 2 questions we kicked around:

1) Is this happening at other Regionals, where one sectional dominates the other? If not, question 2 probably doesn't matter.
2) Do we care? Does it matter at all or does it all even out because they are the same Regional anyways?

 

 

In one regard, it doesn't matter. Because there's seeding at sectionals and because first round of regionals is sectional vs sectional, the true top 4 have every chance to get through. If you got 4th at your sectional and can't beat the other sectional's top kid, you're no better than number 5 in your regional.

 

But there's clear inequity, that's for sure. You'll see a couple instances of the same thing this weekend where a regional will only get 5-10 kids through to state while another regional at the same SS will get 25-30.

Edited February 7, 2022 by maligned

[Y2CJ41]

Here are the other regionals

 

Regional	Sectional	SS Qualifiers
Bloomington South	Bloomington North	31
Bloomington South	Southridge	25
Carroll	Carroll	32
Carroll	New Haven	24
Castle	Castle	19
Castle	Evansville Central	37
Crown Point	Crown Point	31
Crown Point	LaPorte	25
Goshen	Elkhart	22
Goshen	West Noble	34
Hobart	East Chicago Central	19
Hobart	Portage	37
Jay County	Delta	24
Jay County	Jay County	32
Jeffersonville	Jeffersonville	26
Jeffersonville	Jennings County	30
Logansport	Lafayette Jefferson	27
Logansport	Twin Lakes	29
Maconaquah	Oak Hill	25
Maconaquah	Peru	31
Mooresville	Avon	21
Mooresville	Mooresville	35
North Montgomery	Crawfordsville	15
North Montgomery	Frankfort	41
Pendleton Heights	Elwood	25
Pendleton Heights	Ind. Arsenal Tech	31
Penn	Mishawaka	25
Penn	Plymouth	31
Perry Meridian	Shelbyville	27
Perry Meridian	Southport	29
Richmond	South Dearborn	34
Richmond	Tri	22

[maligned]

(accidental post)

Edited February 7, 2022 by maligned

[maligned]

2 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Here are the other regionals

 

Regional	Sectional	SS Qualifiers
Bloomington South	Bloomington North	31
Bloomington South	Southridge	25
Carroll	Carroll	32
Carroll	New Haven	24
Castle	Castle	19
Castle	Evansville Central	37
Crown Point	Crown Point	31
Crown Point	LaPorte	25
Goshen	Elkhart	22
Goshen	West Noble	34
Hobart	East Chicago Central	19
Hobart	Portage	37
Jay County	Delta	24
Jay County	Jay County	32
Jeffersonville	Jeffersonville	26
Jeffersonville	Jennings County	30
Logansport	Lafayette Jefferson	27
Logansport	Twin Lakes	29
Maconaquah	Oak Hill	25
Maconaquah	Peru	31
Mooresville	Avon	21
Mooresville	Mooresville	35
None	None	0
North Montgomery	Crawfordsville	15
North Montgomery	Frankfort	41
Pendleton Heights	Elwood	25
Pendleton Heights	Ind. Arsenal Tech	31
Penn	Mishawaka	25
Penn	Plymouth	31
Perry Meridian	Shelbyville	27
Perry Meridian	Southport	29
Richmond	South Dearborn	34
Richmond	Tri	22

I find it very interesting that None got zero through this year. If they changed the site name, surely it would help morale.

[Y2CJ41]

Just now, maligned said:

I find it very interesting that None got zero through this year. If they changed the site name, surely it would help morale.

They had a rough year. 

[Coach Brobst]

4 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Here are the other regionals

 

Regional	Sectional	SS Qualifiers
Bloomington South	Bloomington North	31
Bloomington South	Southridge	25
Carroll	Carroll	32
Carroll	New Haven	24
Castle	Castle	19
Castle	Evansville Central	37
Crown Point	Crown Point	31
Crown Point	LaPorte	25
Goshen	Elkhart	22
Goshen	West Noble	34
Hobart	East Chicago Central	19
Hobart	Portage	37
Jay County	Delta	24
Jay County	Jay County	32
Jeffersonville	Jeffersonville	26
Jeffersonville	Jennings County	30
Logansport	Lafayette Jefferson	27
Logansport	Twin Lakes	29
Maconaquah	Oak Hill	25
Maconaquah	Peru	31
Mooresville	Avon	21
Mooresville	Mooresville	35
North Montgomery	Crawfordsville	15
North Montgomery	Frankfort	41
Pendleton Heights	Elwood	25
Pendleton Heights	Ind. Arsenal Tech	31
Penn	Mishawaka	25
Penn	Plymouth	31
Perry Meridian	Shelbyville	27
Perry Meridian	Southport	29
Richmond	South Dearborn	34
Richmond	Tri	22

So it looks like there's some that are similar, though none quite as bad. And Maligned, I agree that the seeding at Sectionals makes it work most of the time, but there are certainly instances where a kid ends up on the other side of the bracket at sectionals, makes it to the final, takes 2nd, while the 1st, 3rd, and 4th placers all were on the other side so the 3rd and 4th placers never see the 2nd placer. But that seems like such a rare occurrence, it's not worth making a fuss over.

 

Does it impact the team state scores any for some of those smaller schools that get more through to Regionals or is that all calculated for by having the Regional ratings?

 

I didn't think it mattered much, aside from the obvious competition to win a Sectional Team Title is vastly different, but that's the same if you take some teams and put them anywhere else.

[maligned]

9 minutes ago, Coach Brobst said:

 

Does it impact the team state scores any for some of those smaller schools that get more through to Regionals or is that all calculated for by having the Regional ratings?

 

There's no way to smooth out the rough edges perfectly. But the Categories of 2-6 that are assigned to each sectional and regional site have a huge impact. Category 2 or Category 3 sites are only credited with 2 or 3 advancers while others get credit for 5 or 6.

 

We took 5 years of Genius ratings (the ratings we compile based on the same models used for Vegas point spreads). We then ran analysis of how many advancers those 1500 schools got, while controlling for their site path. We arrived at a strong prediction of how many advancers a team of any particular level should earn if sites were all equal. We then add up those "deserved" values team-by-team at each site and find out there's enormous disparity, as you suggested. 

 

This process has worked very well. With 3 or 4 classes over the years, it's usually only one year-end top 5 team, on average, across all classes that gets missed. The top 8 at team state have been, except in rare circumstances, in that year's final top 10 rankings. In other words, we're landing on the right teams to the best that our limited system allows.

[Coach Brobst]

Just now, maligned said:

There's no way to smooth out the rough edges perfectly. But the Categories of 2-6 that are assigned to each sectional and regional site have a huge impact. Category 2 or Category 3 sites are only credited with 2 or 3 advancers while others get credit for 5 or 6.

 

We took 5 years of Genius ratings (the ratings we compile based on the same models used for Vegas point spreads). We then ran analysis of how many advancers those 1500 schools got, while controlling for their site path. We arrived at a strong prediction of how many advancers a team of any particular level should earn if sites were all equal. We then add up those "deserved" values team-by-team at each site and find out there's enormous disparity, as you suggested. 

 

This process has worked very well. With 3 or 4 classes over the years, it's usually only one year-end top 5 team, on average, across all classes that gets missed. The top 8 at team state have been, except in rare circumstances, in that year's final top 10 rankings. In other words, we're landing on the right teams to the best that our limited system allows.

That's what I figured. It's a ton of work I'm sure to try to figure out who is deserving a whole year in advance and it quite honestly doesn't affect the team I coach often. Just interested in the process. Thanks for re-explaining. 

 

So in conclusion, the only real effects of the imbalanced sectionals are 1) Easier team title for one sectional and 2) slightly more than your fair share of Regional qualifiers for that same sectional while slightly less for the other sectional.

[Raven27]

I can't say that I agree with getting the right teams in the tournament every year.  I think that small schools are so unpredictable from year to year that it's impossible.  I would love to see a Qualifying tournament to earn your way to a team state birth.  I would assume that most of small schools would be in favor of a regional tournament.  I feel like there are way too many teams from a certain area getting births.  It would be nice to just wrestle to find out who belongs.  There is no other way to do it to make it fair.

[maligned]

42 minutes ago, Raven27 said:

I can't say that I agree with getting the right teams in the tournament every year.  I think that small schools are so unpredictable from year to year that it's impossible.  I would love to see a Qualifying tournament to earn your way to a team state birth.  I would assume that most of small schools would be in favor of a regional tournament.  I feel like there are way too many teams from a certain area getting births.  It would be nice to just wrestle to find out who belongs.  There is no other way to do it to make it fair.

I agree for sure that the best way is a regional level qualifying tournament. I'd be the first to sign up to help us transition to something like that. 

 

With that said, assertions that we're getting the teams wrong have to be backed up with more data than "they have more over there." In the same way that Eville has an abundance of good big-school teams that no one can deny deserve their spots (while FW gets none), there's a lot of performance data backing up the fact that there's a small-school hotbed in the northeast with its epicenter at Decatur.

 

Your semi-state has exactly 25% of the 1A schools getting classified this year. Coincidentally, you've had exactly 25% of the 1A team state participants over the last 5 years (15 of 60).

 

In that time, those 15 schools have placed 9th of 12 on average.

 

Again, I'm not against your thoughts at all. But with our limited current system, it's working much better than some might think.

[Raven27]

7 minutes ago, maligned said:

I agree for sure that the best way is a regional level qualifying tournament. I'd be the first to sign up to help us transition to something like that. 

 

With that said, assertions that we're getting the teams wrong have to be backed up with more data than "they have more over there." In the same way that Eville has an abundance of good big-school teams that no one can deny deserve their spots (while FW gets none), there's a lot of performance data backing up the fact that there's a small-school hotbed in the northeast with its epicenter at Decatur.

 

Your semi-state has exactly 25% of the 1A schools getting classified this year. Coincidentally, you've had exactly 25% of the 1A team state participants over the last 5 years (15 of 60).

 

In that time, those 15 schools have placed 9th of 12 on average.

 

Again, I'm not against your thoughts at all. But with our limited current system, it's working much better than some might think.

I can't argue your data.  It's just frustrating.  That is why I think a regional qualifier would solve a lot of problems.  This year for us we had a senior at 106 and a Freshman backup that had beat him in a wrestle off once.  They were not that far apart.  We will not get the points that he would have received had he been our starter at sectional.  We had underclassmen at several weights that would have scored more "team points" toward a team state bid but there is no way to gain those.  I didn't mean to come across angry at the people working tirelessly to help this great sport and the Team State tourney.  I love it and am grateful to those that work so hard to make it happen.  I would just like to see teams wrestle to earn it.  I would be the 2nd to sign up if they had a qualifying tournament.  It would be nice to see how our team stacks up against these elite 1A schools next year.

[bulldog145]

3 hours ago, Coach Brobst said:

Sitting in the stands waiting for our next match, some of the other coaches and I got to thinking how some Regionals pit a strong sectional vs a weaker one (our Regional--North Montgomery--being one). I decided to crunch the numbers this morning:

 

North Montgomery Regional SSQs:

Frankfort Sectional: 41

Crawfordsville Sectional: 15 (Zionsville had 9 by themselves, meaning 6 others from the whole sectional)

 

BY comparison, here are the other Regionals in the New Castle Semi-State

 

Pendleton Heights Regional SSQs:

Elwood Sectional: 25

Arsenal Tech: 31

 

Richmond Regional SSQs:

South Dearborn: 33

Shenandoah: 23

 

Perry Meridian SSQs:

Shelbyville: 28

Southport: 28

 

So from this, 2 questions we kicked around:

1) Is this happening at other Regionals, where one sectional dominates the other? If not, question 2 probably doesn't matter.
2) Do we care? Does it matter at all or does it all even out because they are the same Regional anyways?

 

 

This has been an issue for years between those 2 Sectionals.  It was even worse before Zionsville moved over to Crawfordsville.  

I think it is very important when it comes to building a solid small school program.  Success breeds success.  I've voiced my opinion on this for years.  

[Coach Brobst]

8 minutes ago, bulldog145 said:

This has been an issue for years between those 2 Sectionals.  It was even worse before Zionsville moved over to Crawfordsville.  

I think it is very important when it comes to building a solid small school program.  Success breeds success.  I've voiced my opinion on this for years.  

Right. That's kind of what I was thinking coming from a small school myself, getting to Regionals was a BIG deal for my teammates. I do wonder how that affects recruitment and retention at like Clinton Central or Rossville when kids know just to get to Regionals they're going to have to be better than at least one kid from HSE, Carmel, Westfield, or Fishers. 

 

Now to Maligned's point, if they keep all the teams in the same regional, it kinda doesn't matter as to how many Semi-State qualifiers you're going to get, but for Regional Qualifiers, it certainly does.

 

I can see that argument for sure. For HSE personally, a change in Sectionals won't mean much other than maybe 2-3 more Regional qualifiers annually (not a big deal for us), but 2-3 more for Sheridan or Frankfort could make retention and recruiting easier.

[bulldog145]

42 minutes ago, Coach Brobst said:

Right. That's kind of what I was thinking coming from a small school myself, getting to Regionals was a BIG deal for my teammates. I do wonder how that affects recruitment and retention at like Clinton Central or Rossville when kids know just to get to Regionals they're going to have to be better than at least one kid from HSE, Carmel, Westfield, or Fishers. 

 

Now to Maligned's point, if they keep all the teams in the same regional, it kinda doesn't matter as to how many Semi-State qualifiers you're going to get, but for Regional Qualifiers, it certainly does.

 

I can see that argument for sure. For HSE personally, a change in Sectionals won't mean much other than maybe 2-3 more Regional qualifiers annually (not a big deal for us), but 2-3 more for Sheridan or Frankfort could make retention and recruiting easier.

100% True.  With the recent success of a few Wrestlers from our school the past few years, our youth program has grown tremendously.  So having maybe 4-5 be Regional Qualifiers would be huge for a small program.  

 

Keeping them in the same Regional wouldn't bother me at all but at least "balance" the 2 Sectionals.  

[formercollegekid]

These stats while accurate don't paint the whole picture at Mooresville.   Mooresville 35 Avon 21   13 of the 21 from Avon are from Brownsburg...  Add in Avon (down year) 4  for 17 and you start to get the real picture.      I wonder if other tough schools are throwing things off. It seems pretty consistent from my time watching this regional that Mooresville brings depth and the Avon sectional brings 2 powerhouse programs and some occasionally good individuals.   Since we are on the topic, how often do teams get it "realigned"   And is it any more or less than other sports realignment. I know that realignment happens when a new program gets started and changes the number of teams at a sectional.   I know Indian Creek used to be at the Mooresville Regional and is now at Bloomington. But that's the last non new school related realignment I can remember.

[littlevito]

On 2/7/2022 at 7:47 AM, Raven27 said:

I can't say that I agree with getting the right teams in the tournament every year.  I think that small schools are so unpredictable from year to year that it's impossible.  I would love to see a Qualifying tournament to earn your way to a team state birth.  I would assume that most of small schools would be in favor of a regional tournament.  I feel like there are way too many teams from a certain area getting births.  It would be nice to just wrestle to find out who belongs.  There is no other way to do it to make it fair.

[Coach Brobst]

14 hours ago, formercollegekid said:

These stats while accurate don't paint the whole picture at Mooresville.   Mooresville 35 Avon 21   13 of the 21 from Avon are from Brownsburg...  Add in Avon (down year) 4  for 17 and you start to get the real picture.      I wonder if other tough schools are throwing things off. It seems pretty consistent from my time watching this regional that Mooresville brings depth and the Avon sectional brings 2 powerhouse programs and some occasionally good individuals.   Since we are on the topic, how often do teams get it "realigned"   And is it any more or less than other sports realignment. I know that realignment happens when a new program gets started and changes the number of teams at a sectional.   I know Indian Creek used to be at the Mooresville Regional and is now at Bloomington. But that's the last non new school related realignment I can remember.

I think it was the 2017-18 year that they changed last. They moved Plainfield to Avon and Indian Creek to Bloomington, then brought Cascade to Mooresville. There may have been another small change, but at the time, that was to "balance them" more because Indian Creek was sending 4-5 kids to Semi-state annually and Plainfield would be very solid. 

 

With Plainfield down recently and Avon on a down swing, the disparity there is large as well.

 

To answer your second question, the next restructuring of sectionals was supposed to be this year, but the IHSAA held off on any redistricting because they wanted non-Pandemic numbers for schools for sports that class. I would imagine that next year or the following, they will look into redoing sectionals again.

[jetwrestling]

Interesting to see majority of 2a is north of Indy and 3a south of Indy. 

1a is probably the most spread out with 4 teams from each of IHSAA's 3 regions. 

4a is obviously mostly Indy metro. 

[Spladle Nation]

I hear Franklin is being moved out of Mooresville sectional next year?  Want to say going to Bloomington, but not sure.

[Swarm88]

I think it goes without saying that the Frankfort sectional needs some serious realignment after looking at the state classification enrollment numbers alone. 3 out of the top 6 schools in enrollment are in 1 sectional and 4 of the top 18. That alone should justify someone taking a look at restructuring. 
 

Secondly I can’t wrap my head around why a team or 2 out of the top 4 wouldn’t go to the Elwood sectional. I’m sure it has to do with distance to semi state but I’m unsure of the reasoning. 
 

Lastly Coach Brobst brings up a great point on retention and recruiting for smaller schools. I’m not going to get into the whole class thing, it’s not happening. My first yr back at Rossville we sent 5 guys to semi state out of the Lafayette Jeff sectional, the next year we were relocated to Frankfort. I’ve got 1 guy out of sectionals 3/5 years since moving. This was the first year we qualified 2 for semi state. We have had very little excitement built up by the postseason tournament since moving over. I had a junior that was on pace for 100 wins quit and not come out after losing to 2 guys in sectionals that qualified for state. We have had 4-6 semi state level kids quit because they don’t see the point if they can’t get out of sectionals. Literally have heard those exact words multiple times. We started a club about 5 years ago and the numbers are good and hopefully will stay good but it is an uphill battle. 
 

This isn’t a complaint as much as it sounds like it. It’s more of a statement that realignment definitely needs to be looked at with some of these uneven sectionals. I absolutely love the direction our program is going and I think there is something to the argument that you have to beat the best at some point.  When it comes to developing a program however higher postseason placement without a doubt helps.

[R. Kendrick]

58 minutes ago, Swarm88 said:

. I’m sure it has to do with distance to semi state but I’m unsure of the reasoning. 

Distance has nothing to do with Sectional Alignment, New Albany and Floyd Central are 8 and 23 miles away from Jeffersonville, but are sent to Southridge for Sectional a mere 75 miles away.  And to make it even better they don't even get the 20 minute but ride to Jeffersonville for Regional they get to go to Bloomington!  Brown County is 20 miles from Bloomington North, but go 50 miles away to Jennings County for Sectional.  

[Cmoney125]

On 2/7/2022 at 9:05 PM, formercollegekid said:

These stats while accurate don't paint the whole picture at Mooresville.   Mooresville 35 Avon 21   13 of the 21 from Avon are from Brownsburg...  Add in Avon (down year) 4  for 17 and you start to get the real picture.      I wonder if other tough schools are throwing things off. It seems pretty consistent from my time watching this regional that Mooresville brings depth and the Avon sectional brings 2 powerhouse programs and some occasionally good individuals.   Since we are on the topic, how often do teams get it "realigned"   And is it any more or less than other sports realignment. I know that realignment happens when a new program gets started and changes the number of teams at a sectional.   I know Indian Creek used to be at the Mooresville Regional and is now at Bloomington. But that's the last non new school related realignment I can remember.

I'm pretty sure realignment happens every 5 years because that's usually when the contracts for hosting regionals are up and if the regional goes to a different school, those schools swap spots in their sectional, regional, and semi state. I'm pretty sure.

[Andrew Durham]

This qualifying regional tournament sounds a lot like the old team state tournament . Don’t get me wrong I thought it showed the best of the best in the state but it was brutal the powerhouses . Dominated the team semi state and it was the typical players at the team state tournament ( also wasn’t classed based ) which never gave really small schools a chance to be a part of it