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Faulkens view on Class Wrestling


AJ

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6 minutes ago, Galagore said:

 

If each school were allowed to enter two per weight, do you expect the number of state qualifiers per school size to:

a) change in favor of small schools

b) change in favor of large schools

c) remain pretty much the same

 

Again, you are talking school advantage. I have repeatedly admitted that large schools have an advantage.

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Should we do anything about the large schools that aren't having success?  Ben Davis had 0 qualifiers, Carmel only 3 for example.

 

How about programs that have strong tradition that aren't having that success now?  Lawrence North only 1 qualifier.  Castle only 1.  Bloom South with 3.

 

With all those advantages, shouldn't they be doing better?

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Guys...Congrats on reaching the 10 page thread total!!! I think that matches last year..but not close to the 15+ from a couple years ago! You can do it!!! LFG!!!

 

BTW..shoutout to @SIACfan for taking the baton. Can I just get a permanent like for his posts? Keep up God's work. Also, you know you made a good point when they suddenly change their hypotheticals! It's their way of acknowledging you. 

 

Carry on.....

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8 minutes ago, UncleJimmy said:

Guys...Congrats on reaching the 10 page thread total!!! I think that matches last year..but not close to the 15+ from a couple years ago! You can do it!!! LFG!!!

 

BTW..shoutout to @SIACfan for taking the baton. Can I just get a permanent like for his posts? Keep up God's work. Also, you know you made a good point when they suddenly change their hypotheticals! It's their way of acknowledging you. 

 

Carry on.....

 

I knew you could only resist for so long.

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I would hate for people like @ENoblewrestling to fudge numbers as they please, but alas I will show true numbers

 

Data for the past 11 years

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18PWUXrlIjvzl_-I-HaflCB2w-r0a_sTkH-WWOcFKl2g/edit?usp=sharing

 

There is also data for 3 classes and the IHSWCA 4 class system.

 

Strictly speaking on a 1A and 2A level

1A = 22.6% of the population

2A= 77.4% of the population

 

Qualifiers

1A- 20.63%
2A- 79.37%

 

Placers

1A- 16.72%
2A- 83.28%

 

Champions

1A- 14.29%
2A- 85.71%

 

Top 4

1A- 14.61%
2A- 85.39%

 

So based on that data the qualifiers are close to the enrollment numbers but placers, champions, and top 4 are way off.

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12 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

Again, you are talking school advantage. I have repeatedly admitted that large schools have an advantage.

 

If small schools should get "their share" of placers, medal winners, etc., shouldn't that stay the same regardless of how many entries are allowed? The individuals in those extra entries would have no more or less advantage than the ones in the standard entries.

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You don't win state championships, or even qualify for state, based on your school size.  You do it with the hard off season work that happens in RTC's and finding the best competition to wrestle.  Bigger schools have an advantage because they are in more rural areas.  If a kid, and their parents, want to put in the effort, it can happen.  It takes more effort, but they are wrestlers.

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2 minutes ago, MUSKEEWRESTLING said:

You don't win state championships, or even qualify for state, based on your school size.  You do it with the hard off season work that happens in RTC's and finding the best competition to wrestle.  Bigger schools have an advantage because they are in more rural areas.  If a kid, and their parents, want to put in the effort, it can happen.  It takes more effort, but they are wrestlers.

So let's put $1000 on it...

 

I'll give you 100 random 1A wrestlers and I'll take 100 random 4A wrestlers all entered in the state series. Whoever gets the most state placers wins the money.

 

Wanna take me up on that?

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38 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

I would hate for people like @ENoblewrestling to fudge numbers as they please, but alas I will show true numbers

 

Data for the past 11 years

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18PWUXrlIjvzl_-I-HaflCB2w-r0a_sTkH-WWOcFKl2g/edit?usp=sharing

 

There is also data for 3 classes and the IHSWCA 4 class system.

 

Strictly speaking on a 1A and 2A level

1A = 22.6% of the population

2A= 77.4% of the population

 

Qualifiers

1A- 20.63%
2A- 79.37%

 

Placers

1A- 16.72%
2A- 83.28%

 

Champions

1A- 14.29%
2A- 85.71%

 

Top 4

1A- 14.61%
2A- 85.39%

 

So based on that data the qualifiers are close to the enrollment numbers but placers, champions, and top 4 are way off.

Fudge the numbers as I please.  Haha this is exactally what i've said since my original post which was-

So I dont really want to get dragged into this argument again. I am against classing the individual tournament.  Every year the numbers statically show that there is no advantage to an individual in terms of making semi-state or state.  When it comes to placers/ champs there will be an advantage to bigger schools, I think there are arguments for the stats on that. 

I do apologize for not memorizing what % of the population the groups made up.  

Edited by ENoblewrestling
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15 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

I would hate for people like @ENoblewrestling to fudge numbers as they please, but alas I will show true numbers

 

Data for the past 11 years

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18PWUXrlIjvzl_-I-HaflCB2w-r0a_sTkH-WWOcFKl2g/edit?usp=sharing

 

There is also data for 3 classes and the IHSWCA 4 class system.

 

Strictly speaking on a 1A and 2A level

1A = 22.6% of the population

2A= 77.4% of the population

 

Qualifiers

1A- 20.63%
2A- 79.37%

 

Placers

1A- 16.72%
2A- 83.28%

 

Champions

1A- 14.29%
2A- 85.71%

 

Top 4

1A- 14.61%
2A- 85.39%

 

So based on that data the qualifiers are close to the enrollment numbers but placers, champions, and top 4 are way off.

 

Thanks for sharing that info. I actually really appreciate all you do for this forum. And one last time, I do acknowledge that small schools would benefit from a classed system.

 

The worst deviation is in the amount of champs generated & that is only 8.31%. While it looks like a big loss for the small schools (8.31/22.6 = 36.8% loss), it only equates to the loss of one champ per year on average. 22.6% of 14 weight classes would dictate that small schools should have (3) champs per year. 14.29% of 14 weight classes shows that they are only getting (2) champs per year on average.

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1 hour ago, Y2CJ41 said:

I would hate for people like @ENoblewrestling to fudge numbers as they please, but alas I will show true numbers

 

Data for the past 11 years

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18PWUXrlIjvzl_-I-HaflCB2w-r0a_sTkH-WWOcFKl2g/edit?usp=sharing

 

There is also data for 3 classes and the IHSWCA 4 class system.

 

Strictly speaking on a 1A and 2A level

1A = 22.6% of the population

2A= 77.4% of the population

 

Qualifiers

1A- 20.63%
2A- 79.37%

 

Placers

1A- 16.72%
2A- 83.28%

 

Champions

1A- 14.29%
2A- 85.71%

 

Top 4

1A- 14.61%
2A- 85.39%

 

So based on that data the qualifiers are close to the enrollment numbers but placers, champions, and top 4 are way off.

 

I am going to make one more post in this topic (I think, I reserve the right to post again). And brace yourself Y2 because I am probably going to rile you up again.

 

I love this data even though it supports the small school proponents.

 

It shows that when it comes to champs that small schools are losing 1 of 3 champs per year - a 33.3% loss (1/3)

And that large schools are gaining 1 champ per year on the (11) expected - an increase of 9.1% (1/11)

 

But the better way to look at it (IMO), is that the swing is 1 out of 14 (14 weight classes) in favor of large schools - a 7.1% advantage (1/14)

 

So, IMO it is logical & reasonable to conclude that large schools provide an individual with a 7.1% advantage over small schools for some reason. The reasons can be debated & are most certainly varied. But that advantage is not nearly as huge as many want to believe.

Edited by SIACfan
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2 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

 

I am going to make one more post in this topic (I think, I reserve the right to post again). And brace yourself Y2 because I am probably going to rile you up again.

 

I love this data even though it supports the small school proponents.

 

It shows that when it comes to champs that small schools are losing 1 of 3 champs per year - a 33.3% loss (1/3)

And that large schools are gaining 1 champ per year on the (11) expected - an increase of 9.1% (1/11)

 

But the better way to look at it (IMO), is that the swing is 1 out of 14 (14 weight classes) in favor of large schools - a 7.1% advantage (1/14)

 

So, IMO it is logical & reasonable to conclude that large schools provide an individual with a 7.1% advantage over small schools for some reason. The reasons can be debated & are most certainly varied. But that advantage is not as nearly a huge as many want to believe.

Actually small schools should be getting 3 champions per year by your connotation that each school enters their whole student body into the state series. That means they are only getting 55% of their state champions that they should each year. 

 

When you go to state top 4 placers the disparity is not much better as they are only getting 62% of their intended top 4 placements. 

 

How much different would these numbers be if everyone could enter 20 wrestlers in the state tournament? 

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16 minutes ago, Y2CJ41 said:

Actually small schools should be getting 3 champions per year by your connotation that each school enters their whole student body into the state series. That means they are only getting 55% of their state champions that they should each year. 

 

When you go to state top 4 placers the disparity is not much better as they are only getting 62% of their intended top 4 placements. 

 

How much different would these numbers be if everyone could enter 20 wrestlers in the state tournament? 

 

Now look what you have done - you've made me have to post again.

 

I'm not sure where you are getting 55%, but basing expectations on total enrollment is perfectly logical. This is because the small schools have less kids to draw their athletes from thus it stands to reason that they will have less elite athletes. It is exactly the reason why small schools are at a huge disadvantage from a team standpoint.

 

Now I can't answer definitively what would happen if schools were allowed multiple entries at each weight, but neither can you. You can speculate as I can.

 

I would speculate that at the sectional & regional levels you would see a big difference, but by the time it got to semi-state & state it wouldn't be a huge change. For the small school guys who are advancing that far are not guys that many large school JV guys could beat. I'm sure you are going to speculate differently, but no one is going to be able to prove anything.

 

FYI, 3 champs per year for the small schools is exactly what I said they should get and that your data shows that they are only getting 2.

Edited by SIACfan
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What if, in a 3 class system we had 3 state tournaments held on different days. 1A on Thusday, 2A Friday, 3A Saturday. Those could rotate days every year. We would have 3 chances to see championship matches under the lights.  Or in a two class 1A on Friday and 2A on Saturday. 

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4 minutes ago, bwoodjc89 said:

What if, in a 3 class system we had 3 state tournaments held on different days. 1A on Thusday, 2A Friday, 3A Saturday. Those could rotate days every year. We would have 3 chances to see championship matches under the lights.  Or in a two class 1A on Friday and 2A on Saturday. 

geek & sundry mind blown GIF by Alpha

 

Marginally jealous that I didn't think of this idea myself.

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I look at the data and one thing that keeps popping out to me is that it seems like a small amount of schools are dominating wrestling.

 

8 wrestling  schools (Cathedral, Brownsburg, Warren Central, Chesterton, EMD, PM, Crown Point and Penn)

had 25% of ALL the qualifiers....  If you add East Central and Floyd Central into that mix this year, then you we at 29.4% of ALL state qualifiers in just 10 schools.

 

 

Edited by AJ
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2 minutes ago, AJ said:

I look at the data and one thing that keeps popping out to me is that it seems like a small amount of schools are dominating wrestling.

 

8 wrestling r schools (Cathedral, Brownsburg, Warren Central, Chesterton, EMD, PM, Crown Point and Penn)

had 25% of ALL the qualifiers....  If you add East Central and Floyd Central into that mix this year, then you we at 29.4% of ALL state qualifiers in just 10 schools.

 

 

interesting is 4 from NC, 3 from ECC, 3 from Jasper. So question is what percent of small school qualifiers come from FW semi-state and what percent of the semi-state is made of of small schools? I do have follow-up questions. Are there stats for each semi-state comparing enrollment and qualifiers for each semi-state? Just curious if each semi-state follows the same trend.

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27 minutes ago, AJ said:

I look at the data and one thing that keeps popping out to me is that it seems like a small amount of schools are dominating wrestling.

 

8 wrestling  schools (Cathedral, Brownsburg, Warren Central, Chesterton, EMD, PM, Crown Point and Penn)

had 25% of ALL the qualifiers....  If you add East Central and Floyd Central into that mix this year, then you we at 29.4% of ALL state qualifiers in just 10 schools.

 

 

You know I was commenting on this the other day.  It really seems like there are about 8-10 schools that dominate... most of the rest of the teams are fairly similar in numbers.

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