Wrestlebacks and 2-class individual tournamnet - compare and contrast

[GenHeavyHandz]

I hop on here every year and I’ll say it again.  I’ve been to the Ohio State Tournament, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  Indiana definitely has the best show.  My friend Daniel Magana’s son just won state as Freshman at 152 in Iowa.  He is 2A.  I still screamed!  His smile is irreplaceable.  I don’t think people were going around saying: it’s just a little school.  More wrestlers, fans, and  families are happy on Saturday night. I love the show; but that’s selfish.  It’s easy for me to say that sitting where I sit.  If we want our sport to expand instead of retract: Class is in session.

[maligned]

54 minutes ago, SIACfan said:

I understand, I was thinking the percent that the brackets are correct & you are calculating the percentage of time the brackets are 100% correct.

 

But I believe the percentage of time the brackets will be 100% correct under the 2-2-0-0 scenario is 28.6%. If you label the 4 brackets A, B, C & D and the 4 top guys as 1, 2, 3 & 4 and say the 2 champs (guys 1 & 2) are in brackets A & B, and if #4 can't be in A-bracket & #3 can't be in B-bracket then the possible scenarios are as follows:

 

A   0   0   3   3   0   0   3

B   0   0   0   0   4   4   4

C   3   4   4   0   3   0   0

D   4   3   0   4   0   3   0

 

So there are 2 of 7 (28.6%) scenarios where the brackets are 100% correct.

 

 

 

It's simpler than you're making it. Say we have Ev1 and Ev2 from Ev North and Jeff1 and Jeff2 from Jeff as your top 4. We anchor Ev1 to bracket A. Then there are three possibilities for where Jeff1 ends up. Let's then look at only the quarterfinals, since we're only concerned about the 1s and 2s that come through in this scenario.

 

Possibility 1 (1 in 3 chance): Jeff1 falls into bracket B (same half as Ev1). In all scenarios then, Ev2 and Jeff2 will be in the opposite half and in different quarters from each other since they are both 2s. This is a full 33% of all scenarios and always yields a fair bracket. Bank us 33%.

A 

Ev1 vs ??

B

Jeff1 vs ??

C

?? vs Ev2 or Jeff2

D

?? vs Ev2 or Jeff2

 

Possibility 2: Jeff1 falls into bracket C (opposite half as Ev1). We then have 4 sub-possibilities: both 2s meeting the concerned 1s, neither 2 meeting a concerned 1, only Jeff2 meeting Ev1, or only Ev2 meeting Jeff1. Two sub-possibilities for A/B times two sub-possibilities for C/D = four total sub-possibilities for this 1 in 3 scenario. Only one sub-possibility where Jeff2 doesn't face Ev1 AND Ev2 doesn't face Jeff1 works here. We then calculate that possibility as 1/4 of sub-possibilities times 1/3 of Jeff1 placement possibilities = 1/12 overall. So we add 1/12 (8.3%) to the 33% we already have.

A

Ev1 vs. ??? or Jeff2

B

?? vs. ?? or Jeff2

C

Jeff1 vs. ?? or Ev2

D

?? vs. ?? or Ev2

 

Possbility 3: Jeff1 is placed in bracket D. This will then work exactly like Possibility 2. It represents the 1 in 3 possibilities for where Jeff1 falls and sees a 1 in 4 chance of both Jeff2 and Ev2 avoiding our concerned 1s. This ends up as a 1/12 probability also and adds another 8.3% to our total. 33.3% plus 8.3% plus 8.3% = 50% total chance of a "fair" bracket in the scenario where two top kids come from each of two regionals.

A

Ev1 vs. ?? or Jeff2

B

?? vs. ?? or Jeff2

C

?? vs. ?? or Ev2

D

Jeff1 vs. ?? or Ev2

 

 

Edited February 23, 2021 by maligned

[SIACfan]

E - Evansville regional

J - Jeffrsonville regional

M - Mooresville regional

B - Bloomington regional

 

Top 4 guys are E1, E2, J1 & J2. All other guys are represented by a "0" except the champs M1 & B1 which represent a quarter bracket. J2 can't fall in J1, E2 can't fall in E1 and J2 & E2 can't fall together. Thus the possibilities for how E2 & J2 can fall in the brackets is illustrated below.

 

E1   -   0        0       J2       J2      0       0       J2

J1    -   0        0       0        0       E2     E2     E2

M1   -  J2      E2      E2      0       J2      0        0

B1   -  E2      J2       0       E2      0       J2       0

 

The first 2 columns represent the scenarios were we have 100% fairness. The next 4 columns have 2 of the top 4 guys falling in a bracket together. The last column is the nightmare scenario where the top four guys fall into 2 of the brackets.

 

2 of 7 (28.6%) of the possible draws are 100% fair.

 

[Wrestling Scholar]

1 hour ago, maligned said:

It's simpler than you're making it.

 

 

This is the most ironic statement on the whole thread.  This has become become the most complex post on the thread.   Actually the simple answer, is lets have wrestle backs instead of trying to quantify how unfair it is to not have wrestlebacks.

[SIACfan]

I think I finally caught what you are getting at. Are you saying that they never put the 1st & 2nd placers from the same regional in the same half bracket? But the following illustrates how the 7 scenarios can happen without placing the 1st & 2nd from one regional in the same half bracket.

 

E1   -    0        0

J1    -    0        0

M1   -    E2     J2

B1   -    J2      E2

 

E1   -    J2      J2       0

M1  -     0        0       J2

J1   -     E2      0       E2

B1  -      0       E2      0

 

E1   -    J2      0

B1   -     0      J2

J1    -     0      E2

M1   -    E2     0

 

Thus 2 of 7 possible scenarios or 28.6%

 

 

 

[Galagore]

4 hours ago, Wrestling Scholar said:

This is the most ironic statement on the whole thread.  This has become become the most complex post on the thread.   Actually the simple answer, is lets have wrestle backs instead of trying to quantify how unfair it is to not have wrestlebacks.

 

I think you accidentally said wrestlebacks instead of class wrestling.

 

I kid, I kid...

[SIACfan]

19 hours ago, maligned said:

It's simpler than you're making it. Say we have Ev1 and Ev2 from Ev North and Jeff1 and Jeff2 from Jeff as your top 4. We anchor Ev1 to bracket A. Then there are three possibilities for where Jeff1 ends up. Let's then look at only the quarterfinals, since we're only concerned about the 1s and 2s that come through in this scenario.

 

Possibility 1 (1 in 3 chance): Jeff1 falls into bracket B (same half as Ev1). In all scenarios then, Ev2 and Jeff2 will be in the opposite half and in different quarters from each other since they are both 2s. This is a full 33% of all scenarios and always yields a fair bracket. Bank us 33%.

A 

Ev1 vs ??

B

Jeff1 vs ??

C

?? vs Ev2 or Jeff2

D

?? vs Ev2 or Jeff2

 

Possibility 2: Jeff1 falls into bracket C (opposite half as Ev1). We then have 4 sub-possibilities: both 2s meeting the concerned 1s, neither 2 meeting a concerned 1, only Jeff2 meeting Ev1, or only Ev2 meeting Jeff1. Two sub-possibilities for A/B times two sub-possibilities for C/D = four total sub-possibilities for this 1 in 3 scenario. Only one sub-possibility where Jeff2 doesn't face Ev1 AND Ev2 doesn't face Jeff1 works here. We then calculate that possibility as 1/4 of sub-possibilities times 1/3 of Jeff1 placement possibilities = 1/12 overall. So we add 1/12 (8.3%) to the 33% we already have.

A

Ev1 vs. ??? or Jeff2

B

?? vs. ?? or Jeff2

C

Jeff1 vs. ?? or Ev2

D

?? vs. ?? or Ev2

 

Possbility 3: Jeff1 is placed in bracket D. This will then work exactly like Possibility 2. It represents the 1 in 3 possibilities for where Jeff1 falls and sees a 1 in 4 chance of both Jeff2 and Ev2 avoiding our concerned 1s. This ends up as a 1/12 probability also and adds another 8.3% to our total. 33.3% plus 8.3% plus 8.3% = 50% total chance of a "fair" bracket in the scenario where two top kids come from each of two regionals.

A

Ev1 vs. ?? or Jeff2

B

?? vs. ?? or Jeff2

C

?? vs. ?? or Ev2

D

Jeff1 vs. ?? or Ev2

 

 

 

OK, my problem was that I didn't fully understand how the brackets at the semi-state level are built. Now that I understand this fully, I see that your percentages are now correct.

 

Thanks!

[Bigyusm]

All this math is making my head hurt  

 

Here’s my math to clarify things - if I have 8 pieces of Pizza and I have 8 wrestlers getting ready to wrestle the next day.  - I’ll probably get only 4 pieces , cuz the heavyweight will eat 4 too. 

[ghughes1974]

From my perspective, wrestling is already classed.  Or I should say, it is classed all year and then at the end of the year we switch to a tournament that is not classed. 

 

I coach a 1A school in Indianapolis.  We are surrounded by large schools but wrestle none of them during the regular season.  If I were to ask the schools in our sectional (Warren Central, Franklin Central) for a dual meet, they would laugh me out of the room.  I don't blame them, we can't fill a roster, we have beginner wrestlers on varsity...normal stuff for a small school.  Conferences are generally set up based on school size as most other sports are classed. So all year, we wrestle a small school schedule.  We did well this year.  We went 17-6 in dual meets.  

 

But somehow we're supposed to be ready for large schools in our sectional after wrestling a small school schedule all year.  Our sectional has five large schools plus a bunch of solid small schools.  17-6 and this year, we got only two wrestlers through our sectional.  

 

From my perspective, wrestling is already classed.  Its just the tournament at the end of the year where we decide to put small schools against large schools in round 1 of the tournament.  For my program, this has devastating effect on participation.  I lose nearly all of my first year wrestlers after they see our sectional.  In six years coaching, all but one of my new wrestlers that I recruited to the program quit after wrestling in our sectional.  

 

I think this dialog comes down to the question of what we want to happen with wrestling in Indiana.  The individual tournament is unique and cool in a lot of ways.  Its about the elite wrestlers and who can prove they are the best...that's freaking cool and no other state has that.  But the way it is administered has significant drawbacks for small schools.  We see our new guys give up, wrestle without hope, kids quit before they get started.  Then we lose training partners that can help the more committed wrestlers.  Vicious cycle.  My program almost died before we got started because of our sectional.  

 

There are 213 small schools and 99 large schools with wrestling programs.  The participation level at small schools is not even close to what it could be.  Small school coaches know this.  But I don't think the big schools have the same problem so they think we are just bitching when we bring up this topic. 

 

So what do we want to do?  Do we want to protect a system that is awesome for the elite wrestlers, or do we want more kids wrestling?  In my opinion, we can have both.

 

Small school coaches asking for classing are simply trying to solve a problem.  But we don't need to class the final tournament to take steps to solve the problem.  Changing a few things about how the tournament is administered could have a tremendous positive effect on small school programs. 

 

Attached is more about one such option that a growing number of small school coaches are supporting.  The idea is to keep the individual tournament, but change the way wrestlers get there.  

 

I look forward to hearing everyone's thoughts. 

 

Coach Hughes

Indianapolis Lutheran

 

ImprovingWrestlingforSmallSchools.pdf

[SIACfan]

8 hours ago, ghughes1974 said:

From my perspective, wrestling is already classed.  Or I should say, it is classed all year and then at the end of the year we switch to a tournament that is not classed. 

 

I coach a 1A school in Indianapolis.  We are surrounded by large schools but wrestle none of them during the regular season.  If I were to ask the schools in our sectional (Warren Central, Franklin Central) for a dual meet, they would laugh me out of the room.  I don't blame them, we can't fill a roster, we have beginner wrestlers on varsity...normal stuff for a small school.  Conferences are generally set up based on school size as most other sports are classed. So all year, we wrestle a small school schedule.  We did well this year.  We went 17-6 in dual meets.  

 

But somehow we're supposed to be ready for large schools in our sectional after wrestling a small school schedule all year.  Our sectional has five large schools plus a bunch of solid small schools.  17-6 and this year, we got only two wrestlers through our sectional.  

 

From my perspective, wrestling is already classed.  Its just the tournament at the end of the year where we decide to put small schools against large schools in round 1 of the tournament.  For my program, this has devastating effect on participation.  I lose nearly all of my first year wrestlers after they see our sectional.  In six years coaching, all but one of my new wrestlers that I recruited to the program quit after wrestling in our sectional.  

 

I think this dialog comes down to the question of what we want to happen with wrestling in Indiana.  The individual tournament is unique and cool in a lot of ways.  Its about the elite wrestlers and who can prove they are the best...that's freaking cool and no other state has that.  But the way it is administered has significant drawbacks for small schools.  We see our new guys give up, wrestle without hope, kids quit before they get started.  Then we lose training partners that can help the more committed wrestlers.  Vicious cycle.  My program almost died before we got started because of our sectional.  

 

There are 213 small schools and 99 large schools with wrestling programs.  The participation level at small schools is not even close to what it could be.  Small school coaches know this.  But I don't think the big schools have the same problem so they think we are just bitching when we bring up this topic. 

 

So what do we want to do?  Do we want to protect a system that is awesome for the elite wrestlers, or do we want more kids wrestling?  In my opinion, we can have both.

 

Small school coaches asking for classing are simply trying to solve a problem.  But we don't need to class the final tournament to take steps to solve the problem.  Changing a few things about how the tournament is administered could have a tremendous positive effect on small school programs. 

 

Attached is more about one such option that a growing number of small school coaches are supporting.  The idea is to keep the individual tournament, but change the way wrestlers get there.  

 

I look forward to hearing everyone's thoughts. 

 

Coach Hughes

Indianapolis Lutheran

 

ImprovingWrestlingforSmallSchools.pdf 750.69 kB · 16 downloads

 

I love it coach. I am only a fan so my support probably does little to nothing for your cause but you have it.

 

Biggest hurdle is getting the IHSAA to give a darn. And/or making them realize that wrestling is actually more than just an individual sport. The participants compete as individuals but the team aspect builds bonds & friendships that can last a lifetime. In the end humans are group oriented animals, we can survive alone but we thrive together.

[base]

21 hours ago, ghughes1974 said:

 

Attached is more about one such option that a growing number of small school coaches are supporting.  The idea is to keep the individual tournament, but change the way wrestlers get there.  

 

I look forward to hearing everyone's thoughts. 

 

Coach Hughes

Indianapolis Lutheran

 

ImprovingWrestlingforSmallSchools.pdf 750.69 kB · 36 downloads

I believe this proposal deserves its own thread - it is well thought out and strikes a balance between traditionalists and small school class proponents

 

[ghughes1974]

Thanks for the suggestion.  I went ahead and created a new thread.  I named it, "Growing Small School Wrestling - with or without classing".

[ghughes1974]

Has anyone crunched data on the number of forfeits at sectionals this year compared to last year?  I think I saw someone had total participant numbers from prior years.  If you have, please share. 

[chambers]

6 hours ago, ghughes1974 said:

Has anyone crunched data on the number of forfeits at sectionals this year compared to last year?  I think I saw someone had total participant numbers from prior years.  If you have, please share. 

That information is posted for this year here. For past years the information is on this site some place. 

 https://indianamat.com/index.php?/forums/topic/59700-forfeit-data-for-2021/

 

Edited March 6, 2021 by chambers

[bwoodjc89]

Well if we had wrestlebacks, I assume we would be having threads about throwing matches like this one they are having on the Ohio forum. If you aren't aware Ohio has Sectional, District then State. This is about throwing matches at Districts. http://yappi.com/forum/index.php?threads/throwing-a-match.339398/